Intrinsic value of Lincoln Electric Holdings - LECO

Previous Close

$88.47

  Intrinsic Value

$38.81

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-56%

Previous close

$88.47

 
Intrinsic value

$38.81

 
Up/down potential

-56%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of LECO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -10.29
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
Revenue, $m
  2,275
  2,409
  2,549
  2,695
  2,848
  3,007
  3,173
  3,347
  3,529
  3,719
  3,918
  4,126
  4,344
  4,572
  4,811
  5,062
  5,324
  5,599
  5,888
  6,190
  6,507
  6,840
  7,188
  7,554
  7,938
  8,340
  8,763
  9,206
  9,671
  10,159
  10,671
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,234
  2,363
  2,497
  2,637
  2,783
  2,936
  3,095
  3,262
  3,436
  3,619
  3,787
  3,987
  4,196
  4,416
  4,646
  4,887
  5,139
  5,404
  5,681
  5,972
  6,277
  6,597
  6,933
  7,285
  7,655
  8,042
  8,449
  8,876
  9,324
  9,794
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,986
  2,234
  2,363
  2,497
  2,637
  2,783
  2,936
  3,095
  3,262
  3,436
  3,619
  3,787
  3,987
  4,196
  4,416
  4,646
  4,887
  5,139
  5,404
  5,681
  5,972
  6,277
  6,597
  6,933
  7,285
  7,655
  8,042
  8,449
  8,876
  9,324
  9,794
Operating income, $m
  288
  175
  186
  198
  211
  224
  238
  252
  267
  282
  299
  339
  357
  376
  395
  416
  438
  460
  484
  509
  535
  562
  591
  621
  652
  686
  720
  757
  795
  835
  877
EBITDA, $m
  353
  247
  261
  276
  292
  308
  325
  343
  362
  381
  401
  423
  445
  468
  493
  519
  546
  574
  603
  634
  667
  701
  737
  774
  813
  855
  898
  943
  991
  1,041
  1,093
Interest expense (income), $m
  19
  25
  28
  31
  33
  36
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  101
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  179
Earnings before tax, $m
  277
  149
  158
  168
  177
  188
  198
  209
  221
  233
  245
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
  358
  376
  394
  413
  433
  455
  477
  500
  524
  550
  577
  605
  635
  666
  699
Tax expense, $m
  79
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  60
  63
  66
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  180
  189
Net income, $m
  198
  109
  116
  122
  129
  137
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  206
  216
  227
  238
  249
  261
  274
  288
  302
  316
  332
  348
  365
  383
  402
  421
  442
  463
  486
  510

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  379
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,943
  1,656
  1,752
  1,852
  1,957
  2,067
  2,181
  2,300
  2,425
  2,556
  2,693
  2,836
  2,986
  3,142
  3,307
  3,479
  3,659
  3,848
  4,047
  4,254
  4,472
  4,701
  4,940
  5,192
  5,455
  5,732
  6,023
  6,327
  6,647
  6,982
  7,334
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,564
  1,656
  1,752
  1,852
  1,957
  2,067
  2,181
  2,300
  2,425
  2,556
  2,693
  2,836
  2,986
  3,142
  3,307
  3,479
  3,659
  3,848
  4,047
  4,254
  4,472
  4,701
  4,940
  5,192
  5,455
  5,732
  6,023
  6,327
  6,647
  6,982
  7,334
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
Average production assets, $m
  517
  547
  579
  612
  646
  683
  720
  760
  801
  844
  889
  937
  986
  1,038
  1,092
  1,149
  1,209
  1,271
  1,337
  1,405
  1,477
  1,553
  1,632
  1,715
  1,802
  1,893
  1,989
  2,090
  2,195
  2,306
  2,422
Working capital, $m
  656
  296
  314
  332
  350
  370
  390
  412
  434
  457
  482
  508
  534
  562
  592
  623
  655
  689
  724
  761
  800
  841
  884
  929
  976
  1,026
  1,078
  1,132
  1,190
  1,250
  1,313
Total debt, $m
  706
  775
  851
  930
  1,012
  1,098
  1,188
  1,282
  1,380
  1,483
  1,590
  1,703
  1,821
  1,944
  2,073
  2,208
  2,350
  2,499
  2,655
  2,818
  2,989
  3,169
  3,357
  3,555
  3,762
  3,980
  4,208
  4,447
  4,698
  4,962
  5,239
Total liabilities, $m
  1,232
  1,301
  1,377
  1,456
  1,538
  1,624
  1,714
  1,808
  1,906
  2,009
  2,116
  2,229
  2,347
  2,470
  2,599
  2,734
  2,876
  3,025
  3,181
  3,344
  3,515
  3,695
  3,883
  4,081
  4,288
  4,506
  4,734
  4,973
  5,224
  5,488
  5,765
Total equity, $m
  711
  354
  375
  396
  419
  442
  467
  492
  519
  547
  576
  607
  639
  672
  708
  744
  783
  824
  866
  910
  957
  1,006
  1,057
  1,111
  1,167
  1,227
  1,289
  1,354
  1,422
  1,494
  1,570
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,943
  1,655
  1,752
  1,852
  1,957
  2,066
  2,181
  2,300
  2,425
  2,556
  2,692
  2,836
  2,986
  3,142
  3,307
  3,478
  3,659
  3,849
  4,047
  4,254
  4,472
  4,701
  4,940
  5,192
  5,455
  5,733
  6,023
  6,327
  6,646
  6,982
  7,335
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.993
  2.190
  2.270
  2.350
  2.420
  2.480
  2.550
  2.600
  2.660
  2.710
  2.760
  2.810
  2.850
  2.890
  2.930
  2.970
  3.000
  3.030
  3.070
  3.100
  3.120
  3.150
  3.180
  3.200
  3.220
  3.240
  3.260
  3.280
  3.300
  3.320
  3.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  198
  109
  116
  122
  129
  137
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  206
  216
  227
  238
  249
  261
  274
  288
  302
  316
  332
  348
  365
  383
  402
  421
  442
  463
  486
  510
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  65
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  196
  206
  216
Funds from operations, $m
  321
  181
  191
  200
  210
  221
  232
  244
  256
  269
  282
  289
  304
  319
  335
  352
  369
  388
  407
  427
  448
  470
  494
  518
  544
  571
  599
  628
  659
  692
  726
Change in working capital, $m
  18
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
Cash from operations, $m
  303
  165
  173
  182
  192
  201
  212
  222
  233
  245
  257
  264
  277
  291
  306
  321
  337
  354
  371
  390
  409
  430
  451
  473
  497
  521
  547
  574
  602
  632
  663
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
New CAPEX, $m
  -50
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -160
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -265
  -279
  -293
  -307
  -322
Free cash flow, $m
  143
  89
  93
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  137
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  351
  71
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  180
  188
  198
  207
  217
  228
  239
  251
  264
  277
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -317
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  24
  71
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  180
  188
  198
  207
  217
  228
  239
  251
  264
  277
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  162
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
  212
  223
  233
  244
  250
  262
  275
  288
  302
  317
  332
  348
  365
  383
  402
  421
  442
  464
  486
  510
  535
  561
  589
  618
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  221
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  377
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  517
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  205
  215
  219
  230
  241
  253
  265
  278
  292
  306
  321
  336
  353
  370
  388
  407
  427
  448
  470
  493
  517
  542
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  495
  135
  135
  134
  132
  129
  126
  122
  118
  113
  104
  98
  92
  85
  78
  71
  63
  56
  49
  43
  37
  31
  25
  21
  17
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. is a manufacturer of welding, cutting and brazing products. The Company operates through three segments: Americas Welding, International Welding and The Harris Products Group. The Americas Welding segment includes welding operations in North and South America. The International Welding segment primarily includes welding operations in Europe, Africa, Asia and Australia. The Harris Products Group includes the Company's global cutting, soldering and brazing businesses, as well as the retail business in the United States. Its welding products include arc welding power sources, wire feeding systems, robotic welding packages, integrated automation systems, fume extraction equipment, consumable electrodes, fluxes and welding accessories, and specialty welding consumables and fabrication. Its product offerings also include computer numeric controlled plasma and oxy-fuel cutting systems, and regulators and torches used in oxy-fuel welding, cutting and brazing.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lincoln Electric Holdings (LECO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.3
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book 8.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 23
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 190
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 99%
Total Debt to Equity 99.3%
Interest Coverage 16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Return On Total Capital 14.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Return On Equity 24.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.9%
EBITDA Margin 15.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Operating Margin 12.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Net Profit Margin 8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Effective Tax Rate 28.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.8%
Payout Ratio 43.9%

LECO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LECO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2275 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lincoln Electric Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Lincoln Electric Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LECO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LECO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lincoln Electric Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lincoln Electric Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LECO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LECO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.6% for Lincoln Electric Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lincoln Electric Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LECO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LECO are equal to 22.7%.

Life of production assets of 11.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lincoln Electric Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LECO is equal to 12.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $711 million for Lincoln Electric Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 65.902 million for Lincoln Electric Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lincoln Electric Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Oct-27-17 07:40AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Lincoln Electric meets 3Q profit forecasts   [07:37AM  Associated Press]
▶ Lincoln Electric Earns Relative Strength Rating Upgrade; Hits Key Threshold   [Oct-25-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Dow Sprints To Record High; New Breakouts Emerge In Industrials   [Oct-24-17 01:42PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Lincoln Electric Board Approves 11.4% Dividend Increase   [Oct-17-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Lincoln Electric tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Jul-25-17 09:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Lincoln Electric Board Declares Dividend   [Jul-20-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for June 14th   [Jun-14-17 10:23AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for June 8th   [Jun-08-17 10:49AM  Zacks]
▶ Lincoln Electric Board Declares Dividend   [04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Lincoln Electric beats Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-18-17 07:34AM  Associated Press]
▶ Lincoln Electric Board Declares Dividend   [Feb-22-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of LECO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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