Intrinsic value of Lincoln Electric Holdings - LECO

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$87.52

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$87.52

 
Intrinsic value

$32.16

 
Up/down potential

-63%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LECO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -10.29
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,275
  2,321
  2,374
  2,435
  2,503
  2,579
  2,663
  2,753
  2,851
  2,957
  3,071
  3,192
  3,322
  3,460
  3,606
  3,762
  3,926
  4,101
  4,286
  4,481
  4,686
  4,904
  5,133
  5,374
  5,629
  5,897
  6,179
  6,476
  6,788
  7,117
  7,463
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,153
  2,202
  2,258
  2,321
  2,390
  2,467
  2,550
  2,640
  2,737
  2,841
  2,930
  3,049
  3,175
  3,310
  3,452
  3,604
  3,764
  3,933
  4,112
  4,301
  4,501
  4,711
  4,932
  5,166
  5,412
  5,671
  5,943
  6,230
  6,532
  6,849
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,986
  2,153
  2,202
  2,258
  2,321
  2,390
  2,467
  2,550
  2,640
  2,737
  2,841
  2,930
  3,049
  3,175
  3,310
  3,452
  3,604
  3,764
  3,933
  4,112
  4,301
  4,501
  4,711
  4,932
  5,166
  5,412
  5,671
  5,943
  6,230
  6,532
  6,849
Operating income, $m
  288
  168
  172
  177
  183
  189
  196
  203
  211
  220
  229
  262
  273
  284
  296
  309
  323
  337
  352
  368
  385
  403
  422
  442
  463
  485
  508
  532
  558
  585
  613
EBITDA, $m
  353
  238
  243
  249
  257
  264
  273
  282
  292
  303
  315
  327
  340
  354
  370
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
  480
  502
  526
  551
  577
  604
  633
  664
  696
  729
  765
Interest expense (income), $m
  19
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
Earnings before tax, $m
  277
  142
  146
  150
  154
  159
  164
  170
  177
  183
  191
  222
  230
  239
  248
  258
  269
  280
  291
  304
  317
  331
  345
  361
  377
  394
  412
  431
  451
  472
  494
Tax expense, $m
  79
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  51
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
Net income, $m
  198
  104
  106
  109
  113
  116
  120
  124
  129
  134
  139
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  213
  222
  231
  242
  252
  263
  275
  288
  301
  315
  329
  344
  361

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  379
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,943
  1,595
  1,632
  1,673
  1,721
  1,773
  1,830
  1,892
  1,960
  2,032
  2,110
  2,194
  2,283
  2,378
  2,478
  2,585
  2,699
  2,819
  2,945
  3,079
  3,221
  3,370
  3,528
  3,694
  3,868
  4,053
  4,247
  4,451
  4,665
  4,891
  5,129
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,564
  1,595
  1,632
  1,673
  1,721
  1,773
  1,830
  1,892
  1,960
  2,032
  2,110
  2,194
  2,283
  2,378
  2,478
  2,585
  2,699
  2,819
  2,945
  3,079
  3,221
  3,370
  3,528
  3,694
  3,868
  4,053
  4,247
  4,451
  4,665
  4,891
  5,129
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.454
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
Average production assets, $m
  517
  527
  539
  553
  568
  585
  604
  625
  647
  671
  697
  725
  754
  785
  819
  854
  891
  931
  973
  1,017
  1,064
  1,113
  1,165
  1,220
  1,278
  1,339
  1,403
  1,470
  1,541
  1,616
  1,694
Working capital, $m
  656
  285
  292
  299
  308
  317
  327
  339
  351
  364
  378
  393
  409
  426
  444
  463
  483
  504
  527
  551
  576
  603
  631
  661
  692
  725
  760
  797
  835
  875
  918
Total debt, $m
  706
  728
  756
  789
  826
  867
  912
  961
  1,014
  1,071
  1,133
  1,198
  1,268
  1,343
  1,422
  1,506
  1,595
  1,689
  1,789
  1,894
  2,006
  2,123
  2,247
  2,377
  2,515
  2,659
  2,812
  2,972
  3,141
  3,319
  3,505
Total liabilities, $m
  1,232
  1,254
  1,282
  1,315
  1,352
  1,393
  1,438
  1,487
  1,540
  1,597
  1,659
  1,724
  1,794
  1,869
  1,948
  2,032
  2,121
  2,215
  2,315
  2,420
  2,532
  2,649
  2,773
  2,903
  3,041
  3,185
  3,338
  3,498
  3,667
  3,845
  4,031
Total equity, $m
  711
  341
  349
  358
  368
  379
  392
  405
  419
  435
  452
  469
  489
  509
  530
  553
  578
  603
  630
  659
  689
  721
  755
  790
  828
  867
  909
  952
  998
  1,047
  1,098
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,943
  1,595
  1,631
  1,673
  1,720
  1,772
  1,830
  1,892
  1,959
  2,032
  2,111
  2,193
  2,283
  2,378
  2,478
  2,585
  2,699
  2,818
  2,945
  3,079
  3,221
  3,370
  3,528
  3,693
  3,869
  4,052
  4,247
  4,450
  4,665
  4,892
  5,129
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.993
  2.130
  2.170
  2.200
  2.240
  2.290
  2.330
  2.370
  2.420
  2.460
  2.510
  2.550
  2.600
  2.640
  2.680
  2.720
  2.760
  2.800
  2.840
  2.870
  2.910
  2.940
  2.980
  3.010
  3.040
  3.070
  3.090
  3.120
  3.150
  3.170
  3.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  198
  104
  106
  109
  113
  116
  120
  124
  129
  134
  139
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  213
  222
  231
  242
  252
  263
  275
  288
  301
  315
  329
  344
  361
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  65
  70
  71
  73
  74
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  138
  144
  151
Funds from operations, $m
  321
  174
  178
  182
  186
  192
  197
  203
  210
  217
  225
  226
  235
  244
  254
  265
  276
  287
  300
  313
  326
  341
  356
  372
  389
  407
  426
  446
  467
  489
  512
Change in working capital, $m
  18
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  43
Cash from operations, $m
  303
  153
  171
  174
  178
  182
  187
  192
  198
  204
  211
  212
  219
  227
  236
  245
  255
  266
  277
  289
  301
  314
  328
  343
  358
  374
  391
  409
  428
  448
  469
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
New CAPEX, $m
  -50
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -78
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -160
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -222
Free cash flow, $m
  143
  98
  112
  112
  113
  114
  116
  118
  120
  122
  125
  122
  125
  129
  133
  137
  142
  147
  152
  158
  164
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  351
  24
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  145
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -317
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  24
  24
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  145
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  162
  121
  141
  145
  150
  155
  161
  167
  173
  179
  186
  187
  195
  203
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
  263
  275
  287
  300
  314
  329
  344
  360
  377
  395
  414
  433
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  221
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  377
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  491
  133
  136
  140
  144
  149
  153
  158
  164
  170
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  234
  244
  255
  267
  279
  291
  305
  319
  333
  349
  365
  383
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  471
  122
  119
  115
  112
  108
  104
  99
  94
  89
  80
  75
  70
  64
  58
  52
  47
  41
  36
  31
  26
  22
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells welding, cutting, and brazing products in the United States, China, and Internationally. The company’s welding products comprise arc welding power sources, plasma cutters, wire feeding systems, robotic welding packages, integrated automation systems, fume extraction equipment, consumable electrodes, fluxes, and welding accessories. It also offers computer numeric controlled plasma and oxy-fuel cutting systems, and regulators and torches used in oxy-fuel welding, cutting, and brazing; and consumables used in the brazing and soldering alloys market. The company serves general metal fabrication, power generation and process industry, structural steel construction, heavy equipment fabrication, shipbuilding, automotive, pipe mills and pipelines, and offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction markets. It sells its products directly to users of welding products, as well as through industrial distributors, retailers, and agents. The company was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lincoln Electric Holdings (LECO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 8.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 190
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 99%
Total Debt to Equity 99.3%
Interest Coverage 16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Return On Total Capital 14.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Return On Equity 24.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.9%
EBITDA Margin 15.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Operating Margin 12.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Net Profit Margin 8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Effective Tax Rate 28.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.8%
Payout Ratio 43.9%

LECO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LECO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2275 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lincoln Electric Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Lincoln Electric Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LECO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LECO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lincoln Electric Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lincoln Electric Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LECO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LECO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.6% for Lincoln Electric Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lincoln Electric Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LECO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LECO are equal to 22.7%.

Life of production assets of 11.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lincoln Electric Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LECO is equal to 12.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $711 million for Lincoln Electric Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 65.738 million for Lincoln Electric Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lincoln Electric Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.8 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Lincoln Electric Board Declares Dividend   [04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Lincoln Electric beats Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-18-17 07:34AM  Associated Press]
▶ Lincoln Electric Board Declares Dividend   [Feb-22-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Lincoln Electric Schedules 2017 Shareholders Meeting   [Jan-13-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)?   [Nov-29-16 12:32AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Six Dividend Machines Boosting Dividends   [10:56AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Lincoln Electric Board Approves 9.4% Dividend Increase   [Oct-18-16 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Lincoln Electric Promotes Two Executives   [Aug-09-16 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Lincoln Electric Board Declares Dividend   [Jul-21-16 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Lincoln Electric Taps Veteran Tax Director as CIO   [Jun-22-16 05:42PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Stock chart of LECO Financial statements of LECO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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