Intrinsic value of Lee Enterprises - LEE

Previous Close

$2.40

  Intrinsic Value

$1.90

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-21%

Previous close

$2.40

 
Intrinsic value

$1.90

 
Up/down potential

-21%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of LEE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.39
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  614
  626
  641
  657
  676
  696
  719
  743
  770
  798
  829
  861
  896
  934
  973
  1,015
  1,060
  1,107
  1,157
  1,209
  1,265
  1,323
  1,385
  1,450
  1,519
  1,591
  1,668
  1,748
  1,832
  1,921
  2,014
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  520
  531
  544
  559
  575
  593
  612
  633
  656
  680
  682
  709
  739
  770
  803
  839
  876
  915
  957
  1,001
  1,047
  1,096
  1,148
  1,202
  1,259
  1,319
  1,383
  1,450
  1,520
  1,594
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  480
  520
  531
  544
  559
  575
  593
  612
  633
  656
  680
  682
  709
  739
  770
  803
  839
  876
  915
  957
  1,001
  1,047
  1,096
  1,148
  1,202
  1,259
  1,319
  1,383
  1,450
  1,520
  1,594
Operating income, $m
  135
  106
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  149
  180
  187
  195
  203
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
  303
  317
  332
  348
  365
  382
  401
  420
EBITDA, $m
  178
  155
  159
  163
  168
  173
  178
  184
  191
  198
  205
  214
  222
  232
  241
  252
  263
  274
  287
  300
  314
  328
  343
  360
  377
  395
  413
  433
  454
  476
  499
Interest expense (income), $m
  65
  57
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  123
  129
  137
  144
  152
  160
Earnings before tax, $m
  58
  50
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  122
  126
  131
  135
  140
  146
  151
  157
  164
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  228
  238
  249
  260
Tax expense, $m
  22
  13
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
Net income, $m
  35
  36
  51
  53
  55
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  89
  92
  95
  99
  103
  106
  111
  115
  120
  124
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  663
  659
  674
  692
  711
  733
  756
  782
  810
  840
  872
  907
  944
  983
  1,024
  1,069
  1,115
  1,165
  1,217
  1,273
  1,331
  1,393
  1,458
  1,527
  1,599
  1,675
  1,755
  1,840
  1,928
  2,022
  2,120
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  646
  659
  674
  692
  711
  733
  756
  782
  810
  840
  872
  907
  944
  983
  1,024
  1,069
  1,115
  1,165
  1,217
  1,273
  1,331
  1,393
  1,458
  1,527
  1,599
  1,675
  1,755
  1,840
  1,928
  2,022
  2,120
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.950
  0.950
  0.951
  0.949
  0.951
  0.950
  0.951
  0.950
  0.951
  0.950
  0.951
  0.949
  0.949
  0.950
  0.950
  0.949
  0.951
  0.950
  0.951
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
Average production assets, $m
  309
  314
  322
  330
  339
  349
  361
  373
  386
  401
  416
  432
  450
  469
  489
  510
  532
  556
  581
  607
  635
  664
  695
  728
  763
  799
  837
  877
  920
  964
  1,011
Working capital, $m
  -22
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
Total debt, $m
  591
  393
  407
  423
  440
  459
  481
  504
  529
  556
  585
  616
  649
  685
  722
  762
  804
  849
  896
  946
  998
  1,054
  1,112
  1,174
  1,239
  1,308
  1,380
  1,456
  1,536
  1,620
  1,708
Total liabilities, $m
  791
  593
  607
  623
  640
  659
  681
  704
  729
  756
  785
  816
  849
  885
  922
  962
  1,004
  1,049
  1,096
  1,146
  1,198
  1,254
  1,312
  1,374
  1,439
  1,508
  1,580
  1,656
  1,736
  1,820
  1,908
Total equity, $m
  -128
  66
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  663
  659
  674
  692
  711
  732
  757
  782
  810
  840
  872
  907
  943
  983
  1,024
  1,069
  1,116
  1,166
  1,218
  1,273
  1,331
  1,393
  1,458
  1,527
  1,599
  1,676
  1,756
  1,840
  1,929
  2,022
  2,120
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -4.617
  5.970
  6.030
  6.110
  6.190
  6.270
  6.360
  6.440
  6.530
  6.620
  6.710
  6.790
  6.880
  6.970
  7.050
  7.130
  7.210
  7.280
  7.360
  7.430
  7.500
  7.560
  7.630
  7.690
  7.750
  7.810
  7.860
  7.910
  7.960
  8.010
  8.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.224
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  35
  36
  51
  53
  55
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  89
  92
  95
  99
  103
  106
  111
  115
  120
  124
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  43
  49
  50
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  69
  72
  75
  79
Funds from operations, $m
  83
  85
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
  114
  118
  121
  125
  123
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  181
  189
  198
  206
  215
  225
  235
  246
  257
  269
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  79
  85
  101
  103
  106
  109
  112
  115
  118
  122
  126
  124
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  227
  237
  248
  259
  271
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -75
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
Cash from investing activities, $m
  35
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -122
Free cash flow, $m
  114
  55
  69
  70
  71
  72
  73
  74
  76
  77
  79
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -107
  -181
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  158
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -108
  -23
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  6
  32
  83
  86
  88
  91
  94
  97
  101
  104
  108
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  153
  159
  166
  174
  181
  190
  198
  207
  217
  227
  237
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -31
  -194
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -161
  82
  84
  86
  89
  92
  95
  98
  101
  105
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  217
  227
Discount rate, %
 
  14.20
  14.91
  15.66
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
  25.50
  26.78
  28.12
  29.52
  31.00
  32.55
  34.17
  35.88
  37.68
  39.56
  41.54
  43.62
  45.80
  48.09
  50.49
  53.02
  55.67
  58.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -141
  62
  54
  47
  40
  34
  28
  23
  18
  14
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Lee Enterprises, Incorporated is a provider of local news and information, and a platform for print and digital advertising. The Company's products included 46 daily and 34 Sunday newspapers, 300 weekly newspapers, and classified and niche publications, as of September 25, 2016. The Company also provides a range of digital products, including video, digital couponing, behavioral targeting, audience retargeting, banner advertisements and social networking. It provides digital marketing services to small and midsized businesses (SMBs), including search engine marketing (SEM), social media, audience extension, business profiles, and Website hosting and design. It offers small business solutions, including search engine optimization (SEO), local online marketing, social media marketing, video advertising and Website design. The markets it caters to are located primarily in the Midwest, Mountain West and West regions of the United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lee Enterprises (LEE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 3.8
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book -1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 1.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 1.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -30%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -442.2%
Total Debt to Equity -461.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Return On Total Capital 6.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Equity -24.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -14%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 95.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 95.1%
EBITDA Margin 27%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
Operating Margin 21.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Net Profit Margin 5.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Effective Tax Rate 37.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

LEE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LEE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $614 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lee Enterprises. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Lee Enterprises. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LEE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.2%, whose default value for LEE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lee Enterprises, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lee Enterprises.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LEE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LEE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.9% for Lee Enterprises.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lee Enterprises. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LEE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LEE are equal to 50.2%.

Life of production assets of 12.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lee Enterprises operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LEE is equal to -2.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-128 million for Lee Enterprises - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 56.719 million for Lee Enterprises is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lee Enterprises at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Lee Enterprises, Incorporated to Host Earnings Call   [Dec-06-17 07:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Lee Enterprises reports second fiscal quarter earnings   [May-04-17 06:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Lee Enterprises, Inc. : May 2, 2017   [May-02-17 04:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 2 Potential Value Traps to Avoid   [Feb-07-17 02:13PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Post-Dispatch ups buyout offer to 20 employees   [Feb-03-17 05:40PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Post-Dispatch ups buyout offer to 20 employees   [05:40PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Phyllis Sewell Proved an Accidental Role Model for Female Executives   [Jan-06-17 11:30PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Phyllis Sewell Proved an Accidental Role Model for Women   [10:00AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Is Lee Enterprises, Incorporated (LEE) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-12-16 04:19PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Wilson Named Executive Chairman, Ward CEO, of TownNews.com   [Sep-02-16 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Cinemax Orders Pilot Based on Material Written by Bruce Lee   [Aug-31-16 01:02PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Lee Enterprises Plans Sale of Provo Newspaper Assets   [Aug-22-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Lee Enterprises to Present at Barclays Conference   [May-31-16 05:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Lee Enterprises, McClatchy could be next print media deal darlings   [Apr-27-16 09:41AM  Yahoo Finance Contributors]
▶ Lee Enterprises newspaper accused of plagiarizing articles   [Apr-21-16 04:54PM  at American City Business Journals]
Financial statements of LEE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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