Intrinsic value of Lifevantage - LFVN

Previous Close

$2.99

  Intrinsic Value

$12.60

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+321%

  Value-price divergence*

+81%

Previous close

$2.99

 
Intrinsic value

$12.60

 
Up/down potential

+321%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+81%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LFVN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.95
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  207
  211
  216
  222
  228
  235
  242
  251
  259
  269
  279
  290
  302
  315
  328
  342
  357
  373
  390
  408
  426
  446
  467
  489
  512
  537
  562
  589
  618
  648
  679
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  196
  200
  206
  211
  218
  225
  232
  241
  250
  259
  270
  280
  292
  304
  318
  332
  346
  362
  378
  396
  414
  433
  454
  475
  498
  522
  547
  573
  601
  630
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  193
  196
  200
  206
  211
  218
  225
  232
  241
  250
  259
  270
  280
  292
  304
  318
  332
  346
  362
  378
  396
  414
  433
  454
  475
  498
  522
  547
  573
  601
  630
Operating income, $m
  13
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
EBITDA, $m
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Earnings before tax, $m
  9
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
Tax expense, $m
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Net income, $m
  6
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  50
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  138
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  138
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  4.929
  4.907
  4.909
  4.933
  4.957
  4.896
  4.939
  4.922
  4.887
  4.891
  4.895
  4.915
  4.951
  4.922
  4.896
  4.957
  4.958
  4.908
  4.937
  4.916
  4.897
  4.901
  4.916
  4.939
  4.923
  4.927
  4.930
  4.908
  4.944
  4.947
  4.920
Average production assets, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  12
Working capital, $m
  13
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Total debt, $m
  10
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  85
  90
Total liabilities, $m
  38
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  113
  118
Total equity, $m
  12
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  50
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  58
  62
  64
  67
  70
  72
  76
  79
  83
  86
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  132
  138
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.833
  1.420
  1.520
  1.640
  1.760
  1.880
  2.010
  2.140
  2.270
  2.410
  2.540
  2.670
  2.800
  2.930
  3.050
  3.170
  3.290
  3.410
  3.520
  3.630
  3.730
  3.830
  3.930
  4.020
  4.110
  4.190
  4.280
  4.360
  4.430
  4.500
  4.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.095
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  6
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Funds from operations, $m
  1
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  6
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
Free cash flow, $m
  5
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -12
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -12
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -6
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  17
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  16
  10
  10
  10
  10
  9
  9
  9
  8
  8
  7
  7
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

LifeVantage Corporation identifies, researches, develops, and distributes nutraceutical dietary supplements and skin care products. It offers Protandim, a scientifically-validated dietary supplement; LifeVantage TrueScience, an anti-aging skin care product; Axio energy drink mixes; and PhysIQ, a weight management system, as well as Canine Health, a companion pet supplement formulated to combat oxidative stress in dogs. The company also provides skin care products, including ultra gentle facial cleanser, perfecting lotion, eye corrector serum, and micro-lift serum under the LifeVantage TrueScience brand name. It sells its products through a network of independent distributors, and preferred and retail customers in the United States, Japan, Hong Kong, Australia, Canada, Philippines, Mexico, Thailand, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands. In addition, the company sells its products through online. LifeVantage Corporation is headquartered in Sandy, Utah.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lifevantage (LFVN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 3.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -27.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 66.7%
Total Debt to Equity 83.3%
Interest Coverage 10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 14.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.2%
Return On Total Capital 25.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.2%
Return On Equity 80%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 112.6%
Asset Turnover 4.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 83.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 84.5%
EBITDA Margin 5.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Operating Margin 6.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Net Profit Margin 2.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35%
Payout Ratio 0%

LFVN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LFVN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $207 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lifevantage. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Lifevantage. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LFVN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LFVN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lifevantage, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lifevantage.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LFVN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LFVN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.3% for Lifevantage.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lifevantage. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LFVN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LFVN are equal to 1.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lifevantage operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LFVN is equal to 3.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $12 million for Lifevantage - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12.826 million for Lifevantage is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lifevantage at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
RELV Reliv Internat 7.50 2.00  str.sell
NATR Nature's S 9.95 8.75  sell
MTEX Mannatech 15.65 61.60  str.buy
USNA USANA Health S 56.55 89.06  buy
NUS Nu Skin Enterp 55.48 85.70  buy
HLF Herbalife 61.95 67.76  hold
AVP Avon Products 2.62 0.28  str.sell
TUP Tupperware Bra 57.05 43.90  sell
NUTR Nutraceutical 41.80 27.42  sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to LifeVantage Corp. : August 11, 2017   [Aug-11-17 05:50PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to LifeVantage Corp. : July 31, 2017   [Jul-31-17 04:50PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to LifeVantage Corp. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 04:13PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to LifeVantage Corp. : July 3, 2017   [Jul-03-17 03:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to LifeVantage Corp. : June 23, 2017   [Jun-23-17 02:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to LifeVantage Corp. : June 13, 2017   [Jun-13-17 12:39PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to LifeVantage Corp. : June 2, 2017   [Jun-02-17 02:15PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Lifevantage posts 3Q profit   [04:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to LifeVantage Corp. : May 1, 2017   [May-01-17 04:04PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to LifeVantage Corp. : April 17, 2017   [Apr-17-17 12:57PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to LifeVantage Corp. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Lifevantage posts 2Q profit   [06:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ LD Micro Index Reconstitution as of February 1, 2017   [Feb-01-17 09:45AM  Accesswire]
▶ LifeVantage Announces Management Change   [04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ LifeVantage to Present at the ICR Conference 2017   [Jan-04-17 11:55AM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of LFVN Financial statements of LFVN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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