Intrinsic value of Ligand Pharmaceuticals - LGND

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$110.19

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$110.19

 
Intrinsic value

$40.40

 
Up/down potential

-63%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LGND stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  51.39
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  124
  128
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  215
  225
  235
  246
  257
  270
  283
  296
  310
  325
  341
  358
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  24
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  65
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  24
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
Operating income, $m
  44
  87
  89
  92
  94
  97
  101
  104
  108
  113
  117
  129
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  275
  288
  303
EBITDA, $m
  55
  103
  105
  108
  111
  114
  118
  122
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  274
  287
  301
  315
  330
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Earnings before tax, $m
  8
  83
  85
  88
  90
  93
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
  124
  129
  135
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
  252
  264
  277
  290
Tax expense, $m
  10
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
Net income, $m
  -2
  61
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  91
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  184
  193
  202
  212

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  141
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  602
  471
  482
  494
  508
  524
  541
  559
  579
  600
  623
  648
  674
  702
  732
  764
  797
  833
  870
  910
  951
  996
  1,042
  1,091
  1,143
  1,197
  1,254
  1,315
  1,378
  1,445
  1,515
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  461
  471
  482
  494
  508
  524
  541
  559
  579
  600
  623
  648
  674
  702
  732
  764
  797
  833
  870
  910
  951
  996
  1,042
  1,091
  1,143
  1,197
  1,254
  1,315
  1,378
  1,445
  1,515
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.236
  0.236
  0.237
  0.237
  0.236
  0.237
  0.237
  0.236
  0.237
  0.237
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.235
  0.236
  0.236
  0.237
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
Average production assets, $m
  145
  147
  151
  155
  159
  164
  169
  175
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  249
  261
  272
  285
  298
  312
  326
  341
  358
  375
  393
  411
  431
  452
  474
Working capital, $m
  -64
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Total debt, $m
  242
  103
  106
  110
  113
  117
  122
  126
  132
  137
  143
  149
  156
  164
  171
  180
  188
  197
  207
  218
  228
  240
  252
  265
  278
  292
  307
  323
  339
  357
  375
Total liabilities, $m
  260
  122
  125
  129
  132
  136
  141
  145
  151
  156
  162
  168
  175
  183
  190
  199
  207
  216
  226
  237
  247
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
  326
  342
  358
  376
  394
Total equity, $m
  341
  349
  357
  366
  376
  387
  400
  414
  428
  444
  461
  480
  499
  520
  542
  565
  590
  616
  644
  673
  704
  737
  771
  807
  846
  886
  928
  973
  1,020
  1,069
  1,121
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  601
  471
  482
  495
  508
  523
  541
  559
  579
  600
  623
  648
  674
  703
  732
  764
  797
  832
  870
  910
  951
  996
  1,042
  1,091
  1,143
  1,197
  1,254
  1,315
  1,378
  1,445
  1,515
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.710
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -2
  61
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  91
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  184
  193
  202
  212
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  11
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
Funds from operations, $m
  52
  77
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  91
  94
  97
  101
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  208
  218
  229
  240
Change in working capital, $m
  -11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  63
  164
  78
  80
  82
  85
  87
  90
  93
  97
  100
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  207
  217
  227
  238
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -143
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
Free cash flow, $m
  -80
  153
  66
  67
  69
  71
  72
  75
  77
  79
  82
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  144
  150
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -79
  155
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  165
  172
  181
  189
  198
  208
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -104
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  147
  61
  61
  62
  63
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  71
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  141
  56
  53
  51
  49
  47
  44
  42
  40
  37
  34
  31
  29
  27
  24
  22
  19
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and acquiring technologies that help pharmaceutical companies discover and develop medicines worldwide. Its commercial programs include Promacta, an oral medicine that increases the number of platelets in the blood; Kyprolis that is used for the treatment of multiple myeloma; bazedoxifene, which is used for the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis; Nexterone, a Captisol-enabled formulation of amiodarone; Noxafil-IV, a Captisol-enabled formulation of posaconazole for IV use; Exemptia for autoimmune diseases; and Vivitra for breast cancer. The company’s partners programs, which are in clinical development used for the treatment of seizure, coma, cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, muscle wasting, liver disease, kidney disease, and others. Its internal development program comprise products for the treatment of Type 2 diabetes mellitus, blood disorders, anti-coagulant, pain, depression, allergy, sun damage, restless leg/parkinson's, cognitive disorders, oncology, and inflammation. The company is also involved in the sale of Captisol materials. Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated has alliances, licenses, and other business relationships with various pharmaceutical companies, including Novartis, Amgen, Inc, Merck & Co., Inc., Pfizer Inc., Celgene, Gilead, Janssen, Baxter International, Inc., and Eli Lilly and Company. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in La Jolla, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1152
Price to Sales 21.1
Price to Book 6.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 36.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 53.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 51.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 400%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 38%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 8.5%
Total Debt to Equity 71%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Return On Total Capital -0.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.4%
Return On Equity -0.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.6%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 94.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 90.3%
EBITDA Margin 19.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.1%
Operating Margin 40.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.3%
Net Profit Margin -1.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 112%
Effective Tax Rate 125%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -141.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

LGND stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LGND stock intrinsic value calculation we used $109 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ligand Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ligand Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LGND stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LGND is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ligand Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ligand Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LGND stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 22%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LGND stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Ligand Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ligand Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LGND stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LGND are equal to 132.6%.

Life of production assets of 17 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ligand Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LGND is equal to 7.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $341 million for Ligand Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 20.881 million for Ligand Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ligand Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ These 3 Stocks Look Expensive but Are Actually Cheap   [May-11-17 10:43AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ligand posts 1Q profit   [May-09-17 05:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ligand to Report First Quarter 2017 Results on May 9th   [Apr-13-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
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▶ Ligand to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conference   [Mar-09-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
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▶ Ligand Provides Highlights from Todays Analyst Day Event   [Feb-28-17 04:10PM  Business Wire]
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Stock chart of LGND Financial statements of LGND Annual reports of LGND
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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