Intrinsic value of LHC Group - LHCG

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$60.49

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$60.49

 
Intrinsic value

$62.50

 
Up/down potential

+3%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LHCG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.13
  10.80
  10.22
  9.70
  9.23
  8.81
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.47
  6.33
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.71
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.42
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
Revenue, $m
  915
  1,014
  1,117
  1,226
  1,339
  1,457
  1,580
  1,707
  1,840
  1,978
  2,121
  2,270
  2,425
  2,586
  2,753
  2,928
  3,109
  3,298
  3,495
  3,700
  3,914
  4,137
  4,370
  4,614
  4,868
  5,134
  5,412
  5,703
  6,007
  6,326
  6,659
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  928
  1,020
  1,116
  1,216
  1,321
  1,429
  1,542
  1,660
  1,782
  1,909
  2,010
  2,147
  2,290
  2,438
  2,592
  2,753
  2,920
  3,094
  3,276
  3,465
  3,663
  3,869
  4,085
  4,310
  4,546
  4,792
  5,050
  5,319
  5,601
  5,897
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  844
  928
  1,020
  1,116
  1,216
  1,321
  1,429
  1,542
  1,660
  1,782
  1,909
  2,010
  2,147
  2,290
  2,438
  2,592
  2,753
  2,920
  3,094
  3,276
  3,465
  3,663
  3,869
  4,085
  4,310
  4,546
  4,792
  5,050
  5,319
  5,601
  5,897
Operating income, $m
  71
  85
  97
  110
  123
  136
  150
  165
  180
  196
  212
  260
  278
  296
  315
  335
  356
  378
  400
  424
  448
  474
  501
  528
  558
  588
  620
  653
  688
  725
  763
EBITDA, $m
  83
  121
  134
  147
  160
  174
  189
  204
  220
  237
  254
  272
  290
  309
  329
  350
  372
  394
  418
  443
  468
  495
  523
  552
  582
  614
  647
  682
  719
  757
  797
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
Earnings before tax, $m
  68
  82
  93
  105
  117
  130
  143
  156
  170
  185
  200
  247
  263
  281
  298
  317
  336
  356
  377
  399
  422
  446
  471
  497
  524
  552
  582
  613
  645
  679
  715
Tax expense, $m
  22
  22
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  120
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  193
Net income, $m
  37
  60
  68
  77
  85
  95
  104
  114
  124
  135
  146
  180
  192
  205
  218
  231
  245
  260
  275
  291
  308
  325
  344
  362
  382
  403
  425
  447
  471
  496
  522

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  614
  677
  746
  818
  894
  973
  1,054
  1,140
  1,228
  1,320
  1,416
  1,515
  1,619
  1,726
  1,838
  1,954
  2,075
  2,201
  2,333
  2,470
  2,613
  2,762
  2,917
  3,080
  3,250
  3,427
  3,613
  3,807
  4,010
  4,223
  4,446
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  611
  677
  746
  818
  894
  973
  1,054
  1,140
  1,228
  1,320
  1,416
  1,515
  1,619
  1,726
  1,838
  1,954
  2,075
  2,201
  2,333
  2,470
  2,613
  2,762
  2,917
  3,080
  3,250
  3,427
  3,613
  3,807
  4,010
  4,223
  4,446
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.498
  1.498
  1.497
  1.499
  1.498
  1.497
  1.499
  1.497
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
  1.498
Average production assets, $m
  140
  154
  170
  186
  204
  221
  240
  259
  280
  301
  322
  345
  369
  393
  419
  445
  473
  501
  531
  562
  595
  629
  664
  701
  740
  780
  823
  867
  913
  962
  1,012
Working capital, $m
  70
  74
  82
  89
  98
  106
  115
  125
  134
  144
  155
  166
  177
  189
  201
  214
  227
  241
  255
  270
  286
  302
  319
  337
  355
  375
  395
  416
  439
  462
  486
Total debt, $m
  88
  111
  136
  162
  189
  217
  246
  277
  309
  342
  376
  412
  449
  487
  527
  569
  612
  657
  704
  753
  804
  858
  913
  972
  1,032
  1,096
  1,162
  1,232
  1,305
  1,381
  1,460
Total liabilities, $m
  219
  242
  267
  293
  320
  348
  377
  408
  440
  473
  507
  543
  580
  618
  658
  700
  743
  788
  835
  884
  935
  989
  1,044
  1,103
  1,163
  1,227
  1,293
  1,363
  1,436
  1,512
  1,591
Total equity, $m
  395
  434
  479
  525
  574
  624
  677
  732
  789
  848
  909
  973
  1,039
  1,108
  1,180
  1,255
  1,332
  1,413
  1,498
  1,586
  1,677
  1,773
  1,873
  1,977
  2,086
  2,200
  2,319
  2,444
  2,575
  2,711
  2,854
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  614
  676
  746
  818
  894
  972
  1,054
  1,140
  1,229
  1,321
  1,416
  1,516
  1,619
  1,726
  1,838
  1,955
  2,075
  2,201
  2,333
  2,470
  2,612
  2,762
  2,917
  3,080
  3,249
  3,427
  3,612
  3,807
  4,011
  4,223
  4,445
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.223
  0.260
  0.280
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.360
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  37
  60
  68
  77
  85
  95
  104
  114
  124
  135
  146
  180
  192
  205
  218
  231
  245
  260
  275
  291
  308
  325
  344
  362
  382
  403
  425
  447
  471
  496
  522
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  12
  36
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  39
  40
  41
  41
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
Funds from operations, $m
  48
  96
  105
  114
  123
  133
  143
  153
  164
  176
  188
  192
  205
  218
  232
  246
  261
  277
  293
  310
  328
  346
  366
  386
  407
  429
  452
  476
  501
  528
  555
Change in working capital, $m
  -19
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Cash from operations, $m
  67
  94
  97
  106
  115
  124
  134
  144
  155
  166
  177
  181
  193
  206
  220
  233
  248
  263
  279
  295
  312
  330
  349
  368
  388
  410
  432
  455
  479
  504
  531
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -50
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -83
Free cash flow, $m
  17
  75
  76
  83
  91
  99
  108
  117
  126
  135
  145
  147
  158
  169
  181
  193
  206
  219
  232
  246
  261
  276
  292
  309
  326
  344
  363
  383
  404
  426
  448
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -11
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  70
  73
  76
  80
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -20
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  70
  73
  76
  80
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -3
  98
  101
  109
  118
  128
  137
  147
  158
  168
  180
  183
  195
  208
  221
  235
  249
  264
  279
  295
  312
  330
  348
  367
  387
  408
  430
  453
  477
  502
  528
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -137
  -143
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  59
  56
  63
  70
  77
  85
  92
  101
  109
  118
  119
  129
  139
  149
  160
  171
  183
  195
  207
  220
  234
  248
  263
  278
  294
  311
  328
  346
  365
  385
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  56
  52
  55
  57
  60
  61
  62
  63
  63
  62
  57
  55
  53
  50
  47
  44
  40
  36
  32
  28
  24
  21
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

LHC Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides post-acute continuum of care primarily for Medicare beneficiaries in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Home Health Services, Hospice Services, Community-Based Services, and Facility-Based Services. The Home Health Services segment offers home nursing services, including wound care and dressing changes, cardiac rehabilitation, infusion therapy, pain management, pharmaceutical administration, skilled observation and assessment, and patient education; medically-oriented social services; and physical, occupational, and speech therapy services. The Hospice Services segment provides pain and symptom management accompanied by palliative medication, emotional and spiritual support, inpatient and respite care, homemaker services, dietary counseling, family bereavement counseling, and social worker visits. The Community-Based Services segment offers a range of services, such as assistance with grooming, medication reminders, meal preparation, assistance with feeding, light housekeeping, respite care, transportation, and errand services to patients in their home or in a medical facility. The Facility-Based Services segment operates long-term acute care hospitals that provide treatment for patients with severe medical conditions who require a high-level of care and frequent monitoring by physicians and other clinical personnel. The company also operates institutional pharmacy, a family health center, and a family health clinic. As of December 31, 2015, it operated 363 locations in Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. LHC Group, Inc. was founded in 1994 and is based in Lafayette, Louisiana.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  LHC Group (LHCG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.8
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -81%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -14.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 22.3%
Total Debt to Equity 22.3%
Interest Coverage 24
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Total Capital 7.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Return On Equity 9.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.3%
EBITDA Margin 9.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Operating Margin 7.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Net Profit Margin 4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Effective Tax Rate 32.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

LHCG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LHCG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $915 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by LHC Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of LHC Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LHCG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LHCG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of LHC Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of LHC Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LHCG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LHCG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for LHC Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for LHC Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LHCG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LHCG are equal to 15.2%.

Life of production assets of 36.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in LHC Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LHCG is equal to 7.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $395 million for LHC Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18.467 million for LHC Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of LHC Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ LHC tops Street 1Q forecasts   [May-04-17 05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Archie Manning joins LHC Group as national spokesperson   [Mar-28-17 03:23PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Correction: Earns-LHC Group story   [Mar-13-17 02:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ Stocks Steven Cohen Continues to Buy   [Mar-02-17 04:44PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Should You Buy LHC Group, Inc. (LHCG)?   [08:11AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Lobbyists as Directors Test Rules for Corporate Boards   [Oct-05-16 12:48AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Lobbyists as Directors Test Rules for Corporate Boards   [Oct-04-16 03:38PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Stock chart of LHCG Financial statements of LHCG Annual reports of LHCG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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