Intrinsic value of Lindblad Expeditions Holdings - LIND

Previous Close

$13.50

  Intrinsic Value

$4.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-69%

Previous close

$13.50

 
Intrinsic value

$4.21

 
Up/down potential

-69%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of LIND stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
(a)
   1
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -100.00
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  0
  294
  322
  351
  381
  413
  445
  479
  515
  552
  590
  630
  671
  714
  759
  806
  854
  905
  958
  1,013
  1,070
  1,130
  1,193
  1,258
  1,327
  1,399
  1,474
  1,552
  1,634
  1,720
  1,810
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  276
  302
  329
  358
  387
  417
  449
  482
  516
  552
  586
  624
  664
  706
  749
  794
  842
  891
  942
  995
  1,051
  1,109
  1,170
  1,234
  1,301
  1,370
  1,443
  1,520
  1,600
  1,683
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  0
  276
  302
  329
  358
  387
  417
  449
  482
  516
  552
  586
  624
  664
  706
  749
  794
  842
  891
  942
  995
  1,051
  1,109
  1,170
  1,234
  1,301
  1,370
  1,443
  1,520
  1,600
  1,683
Operating income, $m
  0
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
  127
EBITDA, $m
  0
  48
  53
  58
  63
  68
  73
  79
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
  117
  125
  132
  140
  149
  157
  166
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
  297
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  112
Earnings before tax, $m
  0
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
Tax expense, $m
  0
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Net income, $m
  0
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  0
  468
  512
  558
  607
  657
  709
  764
  820
  879
  940
  1,003
  1,069
  1,137
  1,209
  1,283
  1,360
  1,441
  1,525
  1,613
  1,704
  1,800
  1,900
  2,004
  2,113
  2,227
  2,346
  2,471
  2,602
  2,739
  2,882
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  0
  468
  512
  558
  607
  657
  709
  764
  820
  879
  940
  1,003
  1,069
  1,137
  1,209
  1,283
  1,360
  1,441
  1,525
  1,613
  1,704
  1,800
  1,900
  2,004
  2,113
  2,227
  2,346
  2,471
  2,602
  2,739
  2,882
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.628
  0.629
  0.629
  0.628
  0.629
  0.628
  0.627
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
Average production assets, $m
  0
  277
  303
  330
  359
  389
  420
  452
  485
  520
  556
  593
  632
  673
  715
  759
  805
  852
  902
  954
  1,008
  1,065
  1,124
  1,185
  1,250
  1,317
  1,388
  1,462
  1,539
  1,620
  1,705
Working capital, $m
  0
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -194
Total debt, $m
  0
  198
  231
  266
  302
  340
  379
  419
  462
  506
  551
  599
  648
  699
  753
  808
  866
  927
  990
  1,055
  1,124
  1,196
  1,270
  1,348
  1,430
  1,516
  1,605
  1,699
  1,796
  1,899
  2,006
Total liabilities, $m
  0
  350
  384
  418
  454
  492
  531
  572
  614
  658
  704
  751
  801
  852
  905
  961
  1,019
  1,079
  1,142
  1,208
  1,276
  1,348
  1,423
  1,501
  1,583
  1,668
  1,757
  1,851
  1,949
  2,051
  2,159
Total equity, $m
  0
  117
  129
  140
  152
  165
  178
  192
  206
  221
  236
  252
  268
  285
  303
  322
  341
  362
  383
  405
  428
  452
  477
  503
  530
  559
  589
  620
  653
  687
  723
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  0
  467
  513
  558
  606
  657
  709
  764
  820
  879
  940
  1,003
  1,069
  1,137
  1,208
  1,283
  1,360
  1,441
  1,525
  1,613
  1,704
  1,800
  1,900
  2,004
  2,113
  2,227
  2,346
  2,471
  2,602
  2,738
  2,882
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  1.690
  1.800
  1.900
  1.980
  2.060
  2.130
  2.190
  2.240
  2.290
  2.340
  2.380
  2.420
  2.450
  2.480
  2.510
  2.540
  2.560
  2.590
  2.610
  2.630
  2.650
  2.660
  2.680
  2.700
  2.710
  2.730
  2.740
  2.750
  2.760
  2.770
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  0
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  106
  112
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
  171
Funds from operations, $m
  0
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  173
  181
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
Cash from operations, $m
  0
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  94
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  129
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
  191
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -158
  -165
  -174
  -184
  -192
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -235
  -247
Free cash flow, $m
  0
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  107
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  38
  39
  41
  42
  45
  46
  49
  50
  53
  55
  54
  57
  60
  62
  66
  69
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  115
  120
  127
  132
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  13
  13
  12
  11
  11
  9
  8
  7
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.0
  98.2
  97.4
  96.7
  95.9
  95.2
  94.4
  93.7
  93.1
  92.4
  91.9
  91.4
  90.8
  90.3
  89.8
  89.3
  88.8
  88.3
  87.8
  87.2
  86.7
  86.2
  85.7
  85.2
  84.6
  84.1
  83.6
  83.1
  82.5
  82.0

Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. provides expedition cruising and adventure travel services. The company provides itineraries that feature up-close encounters with wildlife and nature, history, and culture, as well as promote guest interactivity. It operates expeditions on intimately-scaled ships and allows interaction between guests, crew, and the teams of scientists, naturalists, researchers, and photographers that participate in the expeditions. The company operates a fleet of six expedition ships and four seasonal charter vessels. Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. has a strategic alliance with The National Geographic Society. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lindblad Expeditions Holdings (LIND)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

LIND stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LIND stock intrinsic value calculation we used $267 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lindblad Expeditions Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from income statement of Lindblad Expeditions Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LIND stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LIND is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lindblad Expeditions Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LIND stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LIND stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LIND stock is equal to 4%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LIND are equal to 94.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lindblad Expeditions Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LIND is equal to -10.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $106 million for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 45 million for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lindblad Expeditions Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
CCL Carnival 58.14 6.71  str.sell
RCL Royal Caribbea 110.56 42.09  str.sell
NCLH Norwegian Crui 49.54 5.52  str.sell
BEL Belmond 11.35 1.17  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ 5 Top Stocks to Pull Through the June Swoon   [Jun-13-18 09:50AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ 5 Breakout Stocks Offering Extraordinary Returns   [May-24-18 10:00AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ The 2 Best Dividend Stocks in Cruise Lines   [Jun-26-17 04:55PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Cision Agrees to Acquire L'Argus de la Presse   [Jun-13-17 09:17AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Gaia Reports Second Quarter 2016 Results   [Aug-08-16 04:05PM  Marketwired]
Financial statements of LIND
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

FREE DOWNLOAD
Follow us on:   twitter   twitter   twitter   twitter

ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Site news       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2018. All rigths reserved.