Intrinsic value of Lumentum Holdings - LITE

Previous Close

$63.35

  Intrinsic Value

$30.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-52%

  Value-price divergence*

+5000%

Previous close

$63.35

 
Intrinsic value

$30.39

 
Up/down potential

-52%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+5000%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LITE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.89
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
Revenue, $m
  903
  974
  1,048
  1,126
  1,206
  1,289
  1,375
  1,465
  1,559
  1,656
  1,758
  1,863
  1,974
  2,088
  2,208
  2,333
  2,464
  2,600
  2,743
  2,892
  3,048
  3,211
  3,382
  3,560
  3,748
  3,944
  4,149
  4,364
  4,590
  4,826
  5,074
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  458
  493
  529
  566
  606
  646
  688
  732
  778
  826
  875
  926
  980
  1,037
  1,095
  1,157
  1,221
  1,288
  1,358
  1,431
  1,507
  1,588
  1,671
  1,759
  1,851
  1,948
  2,049
  2,155
  2,266
  2,382
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  492
  504
  517
  530
  543
  557
  571
  585
  599
  614
  630
  646
  662
  678
  695
  713
  730
  749
  767
  787
  806
  826
  847
  868
  890
  912
  935
  958
  982
  1,007
Total operating expenses, $m
  892
  950
  997
  1,046
  1,096
  1,149
  1,203
  1,259
  1,317
  1,377
  1,440
  1,505
  1,572
  1,642
  1,715
  1,790
  1,870
  1,951
  2,037
  2,125
  2,218
  2,313
  2,414
  2,518
  2,627
  2,741
  2,860
  2,984
  3,113
  3,248
  3,389
Operating income, $m
  12
  24
  51
  80
  109
  140
  173
  206
  242
  279
  318
  359
  402
  446
  493
  543
  595
  649
  707
  767
  831
  897
  968
  1,042
  1,120
  1,202
  1,289
  1,381
  1,477
  1,578
  1,685
EBITDA, $m
  66
  45
  73
  103
  134
  167
  201
  236
  274
  313
  353
  396
  441
  488
  538
  590
  644
  701
  762
  825
  892
  962
  1,036
  1,114
  1,195
  1,282
  1,373
  1,468
  1,569
  1,675
  1,787
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
Earnings before tax, $m
  10
  24
  51
  78
  107
  138
  169
  202
  237
  273
  311
  351
  393
  437
  483
  531
  582
  635
  692
  751
  813
  878
  947
  1,020
  1,097
  1,177
  1,262
  1,352
  1,446
  1,546
  1,651
Tax expense, $m
  1
  7
  14
  21
  29
  37
  46
  55
  64
  74
  84
  95
  106
  118
  130
  143
  157
  172
  187
  203
  219
  237
  256
  275
  296
  318
  341
  365
  390
  417
  446
Net income, $m
  9
  18
  37
  57
  78
  100
  123
  148
  173
  199
  227
  256
  287
  319
  352
  388
  425
  464
  505
  548
  593
  641
  692
  745
  801
  859
  921
  987
  1,056
  1,128
  1,205

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  157
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  726
  614
  661
  709
  760
  812
  867
  923
  982
  1,044
  1,108
  1,174
  1,244
  1,316
  1,391
  1,470
  1,552
  1,638
  1,728
  1,822
  1,920
  2,023
  2,131
  2,244
  2,361
  2,485
  2,614
  2,750
  2,892
  3,041
  3,197
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  569
  614
  661
  709
  760
  812
  867
  923
  982
  1,044
  1,108
  1,174
  1,244
  1,316
  1,391
  1,470
  1,552
  1,638
  1,728
  1,822
  1,920
  2,023
  2,131
  2,244
  2,361
  2,485
  2,614
  2,750
  2,892
  3,041
  3,197
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.587
  1.586
  1.585
  1.588
  1.587
  1.587
  1.586
  1.587
  1.588
  1.586
  1.587
  1.587
  1.587
  1.587
  1.587
  1.587
  1.588
  1.587
  1.587
  1.587
  1.588
  1.587
  1.587
  1.586
  1.587
  1.587
  1.587
  1.587
  1.587
  1.587
  1.587
Average production assets, $m
  182
  196
  211
  226
  242
  259
  276
  295
  313
  333
  353
  375
  397
  420
  444
  469
  495
  523
  551
  581
  613
  645
  680
  716
  753
  793
  834
  877
  923
  970
  1,020
Working capital, $m
  316
  171
  185
  198
  212
  227
  242
  258
  274
  292
  309
  328
  347
  368
  389
  411
  434
  458
  483
  509
  536
  565
  595
  627
  660
  694
  730
  768
  808
  849
  893
Total debt, $m
  0
  18
  37
  56
  76
  97
  119
  142
  166
  191
  216
  243
  271
  300
  330
  362
  395
  430
  466
  504
  543
  584
  628
  673
  720
  770
  822
  877
  934
  994
  1,056
Total liabilities, $m
  229
  247
  266
  285
  305
  326
  348
  371
  395
  420
  445
  472
  500
  529
  559
  591
  624
  659
  695
  733
  772
  813
  857
  902
  949
  999
  1,051
  1,106
  1,163
  1,223
  1,285
Total equity, $m
  497
  367
  395
  424
  454
  486
  518
  552
  587
  624
  662
  702
  744
  787
  832
  879
  928
  980
  1,034
  1,090
  1,148
  1,210
  1,274
  1,342
  1,412
  1,486
  1,563
  1,645
  1,730
  1,819
  1,912
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  726
  614
  661
  709
  759
  812
  866
  923
  982
  1,044
  1,107
  1,174
  1,244
  1,316
  1,391
  1,470
  1,552
  1,639
  1,729
  1,823
  1,920
  2,023
  2,131
  2,244
  2,361
  2,485
  2,614
  2,751
  2,893
  3,042
  3,197
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.050
  0.090
  0.130
  0.170
  0.200
  0.230
  0.260
  0.280
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.360
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  9
  18
  37
  57
  78
  100
  123
  148
  173
  199
  227
  256
  287
  319
  352
  388
  425
  464
  505
  548
  593
  641
  692
  745
  801
  859
  921
  987
  1,056
  1,128
  1,205
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  54
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
Funds from operations, $m
  85
  38
  59
  80
  103
  127
  152
  178
  205
  233
  263
  294
  327
  361
  397
  435
  474
  516
  560
  606
  655
  706
  760
  816
  876
  939
  1,005
  1,075
  1,148
  1,225
  1,307
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
Cash from operations, $m
  87
  25
  46
  67
  89
  112
  136
  162
  188
  216
  245
  275
  307
  341
  376
  413
  451
  492
  535
  580
  627
  677
  730
  785
  843
  904
  969
  1,037
  1,108
  1,184
  1,263
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
New CAPEX, $m
  -82
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -82
  -32
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
Free cash flow, $m
  5
  -7
  11
  30
  50
  71
  93
  116
  140
  165
  191
  219
  248
  278
  310
  343
  378
  415
  454
  495
  538
  583
  631
  681
  734
  789
  848
  910
  975
  1,044
  1,116
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  137
  27
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  143
  20
  30
  50
  71
  92
  115
  139
  164
  190
  217
  245
  275
  307
  340
  375
  411
  450
  490
  533
  577
  624
  674
  726
  781
  839
  900
  965
  1,032
  1,104
  1,179
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -116
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  157
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  150
  2
  21
  40
  61
  82
  105
  128
  153
  179
  206
  234
  264
  295
  328
  362
  398
  436
  476
  518
  563
  610
  659
  711
  765
  823
  883
  947
  1,015
  1,086
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  144
  2
  18
  33
  47
  60
  71
  80
  88
  94
  98
  100
  100
  99
  96
  92
  87
  80
  73
  66
  58
  51
  43
  36
  30
  24
  19
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6

Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates in two segments, Optical Communications and Commercial Lasers. The Optical Communications segment offers components, modules, and subsystems that enable the transmission and transport of video, audio, and text data over high-capacity fiber optic cables. It offers tunable transponders, transceivers, and transmitter modules; tunable lasers, receivers, and modulators; and transport products comprising reconfigurable optical add/drop multiplexers, amplifiers, and optical channel monitors, as well as components consisting of 980nm, multi-mode, and Raman pumps. This segment also offers Super Transport Blade, which integrates optical transport functions into a single-slot blade; products for 3-D sensing applications, including a light source product; vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers; distributed feedback and electro-absorption modulated lasers; and individual and compact laser arrays. It serves customers in telecommunications, data communications, and consumer and industrial markets. The Commercial Lasers segment offers diode, direct-diode, diode-pumped solid-state, fiber, and gas lasers. This segment serves customers in markets and applications, such as manufacturing, biotechnology, graphics and imaging, and remote sensing, as well as in precision machining, including drilling in printed circuit boards, wafer singulation, and solar cell scribing. Its lasers products are used in various original equipment manufacturer applications. Lumentum Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Milpitas, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lumentum Holdings (LITE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 419.4
Price to Sales 4.2
Price to Book 7.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 43.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 754.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 51.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Total Capital 2.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Return On Equity 2.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31%
EBITDA Margin 7.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Operating Margin 1.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Net Profit Margin 1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Effective Tax Rate 10%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.3%
Payout Ratio 11.1%

LITE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LITE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $903 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lumentum Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Lumentum Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LITE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LITE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lumentum Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lumentum Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LITE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 47%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $480 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LITE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Lumentum Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lumentum Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LITE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LITE are equal to 20.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lumentum Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LITE is equal to 17.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $497 million for Lumentum Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 60.334 million for Lumentum Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lumentum Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.8 billion.

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Stock chart of LITE Financial statements of LITE Annual reports of LITE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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