Intrinsic value of Lumentum Holdings - LITE

Previous Close

$58.10

  Intrinsic Value

$59.50

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+2%

Previous close

$58.10

 
Intrinsic value

$59.50

 
Up/down potential

+2%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of LITE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.96
  11.00
  10.40
  9.86
  9.37
  8.94
  8.54
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.53
  6.37
  6.24
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
Revenue, $m
  1,002
  1,112
  1,228
  1,349
  1,475
  1,607
  1,745
  1,887
  2,036
  2,190
  2,351
  2,518
  2,691
  2,871
  3,058
  3,253
  3,456
  3,667
  3,887
  4,117
  4,356
  4,605
  4,866
  5,138
  5,422
  5,719
  6,030
  6,355
  6,695
  7,050
  7,423
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  697
  770
  845
  925
  1,007
  1,093
  1,182
  1,275
  1,372
  1,472
  1,576
  1,684
  1,797
  1,914
  2,036
  2,163
  2,295
  2,433
  2,577
  2,726
  2,883
  3,046
  3,216
  3,394
  3,580
  3,774
  3,977
  4,190
  4,413
  4,646
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  342
  351
  360
  369
  378
  387
  397
  407
  417
  428
  438
  449
  460
  472
  484
  496
  508
  521
  534
  547
  561
  575
  589
  604
  619
  635
  651
  667
  684
  701
Total operating expenses, $m
  954
  1,039
  1,121
  1,205
  1,294
  1,385
  1,480
  1,579
  1,682
  1,789
  1,900
  2,014
  2,133
  2,257
  2,386
  2,520
  2,659
  2,803
  2,954
  3,111
  3,273
  3,444
  3,621
  3,805
  3,998
  4,199
  4,409
  4,628
  4,857
  5,097
  5,347
Operating income, $m
  48
  73
  107
  144
  182
  222
  264
  308
  354
  401
  451
  504
  557
  614
  672
  733
  797
  864
  933
  1,006
  1,082
  1,162
  1,245
  1,333
  1,424
  1,520
  1,621
  1,727
  1,838
  1,954
  2,076
EBITDA, $m
  109
  127
  168
  210
  254
  301
  349
  400
  453
  508
  565
  625
  687
  752
  820
  890
  964
  1,040
  1,121
  1,204
  1,292
  1,384
  1,480
  1,580
  1,686
  1,796
  1,912
  2,033
  2,160
  2,294
  2,434
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  11
  13
  16
  18
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  72
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  105
  112
  118
  125
  132
  140
Earnings before tax, $m
  -60
  61
  94
  128
  164
  201
  240
  281
  324
  368
  414
  464
  514
  567
  621
  678
  738
  800
  865
  934
  1,005
  1,079
  1,158
  1,239
  1,325
  1,415
  1,510
  1,609
  1,713
  1,822
  1,936
Tax expense, $m
  43
  17
  25
  35
  44
  54
  65
  76
  87
  99
  112
  125
  139
  153
  168
  183
  199
  216
  234
  252
  271
  291
  313
  335
  358
  382
  408
  434
  462
  492
  523
Net income, $m
  -103
  45
  69
  93
  120
  147
  175
  205
  236
  269
  303
  339
  375
  414
  454
  495
  539
  584
  632
  682
  734
  788
  845
  905
  967
  1,033
  1,102
  1,174
  1,250
  1,330
  1,414

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  555
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,233
  753
  831
  913
  998
  1,087
  1,180
  1,277
  1,378
  1,482
  1,591
  1,703
  1,821
  1,942
  2,069
  2,201
  2,338
  2,481
  2,630
  2,785
  2,947
  3,116
  3,292
  3,476
  3,669
  3,870
  4,080
  4,300
  4,529
  4,770
  5,022
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  678
  753
  831
  913
  998
  1,087
  1,180
  1,277
  1,378
  1,482
  1,591
  1,703
  1,821
  1,942
  2,069
  2,201
  2,338
  2,481
  2,630
  2,785
  2,947
  3,116
  3,292
  3,476
  3,669
  3,870
  4,080
  4,300
  4,529
  4,770
  5,022
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.478
  1.477
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.479
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.479
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
Average production assets, $m
  241
  268
  296
  325
  356
  387
  420
  455
  491
  528
  567
  607
  648
  692
  737
  784
  833
  884
  937
  992
  1,050
  1,110
  1,173
  1,238
  1,307
  1,378
  1,453
  1,531
  1,613
  1,699
  1,789
Working capital, $m
  746
  212
  235
  258
  282
  307
  333
  360
  389
  418
  449
  481
  514
  548
  584
  621
  660
  700
  742
  786
  832
  880
  929
  981
  1,036
  1,092
  1,152
  1,214
  1,279
  1,347
  1,418
Total debt, $m
  318
  381
  452
  525
  602
  683
  766
  853
  944
  1,038
  1,135
  1,237
  1,342
  1,452
  1,566
  1,685
  1,808
  1,937
  2,071
  2,211
  2,356
  2,508
  2,667
  2,833
  3,006
  3,187
  3,376
  3,574
  3,781
  3,997
  4,224
Total liabilities, $m
  614
  677
  748
  821
  898
  979
  1,062
  1,149
  1,240
  1,334
  1,431
  1,533
  1,638
  1,748
  1,862
  1,981
  2,104
  2,233
  2,367
  2,507
  2,652
  2,804
  2,963
  3,129
  3,302
  3,483
  3,672
  3,870
  4,077
  4,293
  4,520
Total equity, $m
  619
  75
  83
  91
  100
  109
  118
  128
  138
  148
  159
  170
  182
  194
  207
  220
  234
  248
  263
  279
  295
  312
  329
  348
  367
  387
  408
  430
  453
  477
  502
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,233
  752
  831
  912
  998
  1,088
  1,180
  1,277
  1,378
  1,482
  1,590
  1,703
  1,820
  1,942
  2,069
  2,201
  2,338
  2,481
  2,630
  2,786
  2,947
  3,116
  3,292
  3,477
  3,669
  3,870
  4,080
  4,300
  4,530
  4,770
  5,022
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.514
  5.070
  5.440
  5.760
  6.030
  6.280
  6.490
  6.680
  6.850
  7.000
  7.140
  7.260
  7.370
  7.480
  7.570
  7.660
  7.730
  7.810
  7.870
  7.940
  8.000
  8.050
  8.100
  8.150
  8.190
  8.240
  8.270
  8.310
  8.350
  8.380
  8.410
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.094
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -103
  45
  69
  93
  120
  147
  175
  205
  236
  269
  303
  339
  375
  414
  454
  495
  539
  584
  632
  682
  734
  788
  845
  905
  967
  1,033
  1,102
  1,174
  1,250
  1,330
  1,414
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  61
  55
  60
  66
  72
  79
  85
  92
  99
  107
  114
  121
  130
  138
  147
  157
  167
  177
  187
  198
  210
  222
  235
  248
  261
  276
  291
  306
  323
  340
  358
Funds from operations, $m
  46
  100
  129
  160
  192
  225
  261
  297
  336
  375
  417
  460
  505
  552
  601
  652
  705
  761
  819
  880
  943
  1,010
  1,080
  1,152
  1,229
  1,309
  1,393
  1,481
  1,573
  1,670
  1,771
Change in working capital, $m
  -39
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
Cash from operations, $m
  85
  79
  107
  136
  168
  200
  234
  270
  307
  346
  386
  428
  472
  518
  565
  615
  667
  721
  777
  836
  898
  962
  1,030
  1,100
  1,174
  1,252
  1,333
  1,418
  1,508
  1,602
  1,700
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -48
  -54
  -59
  -65
  -71
  -77
  -84
  -91
  -98
  -106
  -113
  -121
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -157
  -167
  -177
  -187
  -198
  -210
  -222
  -235
  -248
  -261
  -276
  -291
  -306
  -323
  -340
New CAPEX, $m
  -138
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -426
  -75
  -82
  -88
  -95
  -103
  -110
  -118
  -127
  -135
  -145
  -153
  -163
  -173
  -183
  -194
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -242
  -256
  -270
  -285
  -301
  -316
  -333
  -351
  -369
  -388
  -409
  -430
Free cash flow, $m
  -341
  3
  25
  48
  72
  97
  124
  152
  180
  211
  242
  275
  309
  344
  382
  420
  461
  503
  547
  593
  642
  692
  745
  800
  858
  919
  983
  1,050
  1,120
  1,193
  1,271
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  442
  63
  70
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  458
  63
  70
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  117
  67
  96
  122
  149
  178
  207
  238
  271
  305
  340
  376
  414
  454
  496
  539
  584
  632
  681
  733
  787
  844
  904
  966
  1,031
  1,100
  1,172
  1,247
  1,327
  1,410
  1,497
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -122
  -11
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  555
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  610
  88
  114
  141
  169
  198
  229
  261
  294
  329
  365
  403
  442
  483
  526
  571
  618
  666
  718
  771
  827
  886
  948
  1,012
  1,080
  1,151
  1,225
  1,304
  1,386
  1,472
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  585
  81
  99
  116
  131
  144
  155
  163
  169
  172
  173
  172
  168
  162
  154
  145
  134
  123
  110
  98
  86
  74
  62
  52
  42
  34
  26
  20
  15
  11
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Lumentum Holdings Inc. is a provider of optical and photonic products for a range of end market applications, including data communications (Datacom) and telecommunications (Telecom) networking and commercial lasers (commercial lasers) for manufacturing, inspection and life-science applications. The Company operates in two segments: Optical Communications (OpComms) and Commercial Lasers (Lasers). The Company's OpComms products include a range of components, modules and subsystems to support and maintain customers in its two primary markets: Telecom and Datacom. The Company's Lasers products serve customers in markets and applications, such as manufacturing, biotechnology, graphics and imaging, remote sensing, and precision machining, such as drilling in printed circuit boards, wafer singulation and solar cell scribing. The Company's customers include original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lumentum Holdings (LITE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -34.7
Price to Sales 3.6
Price to Book 5.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 42
Price to Free Cash Flow -67.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 68.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 60.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 51.4%
Total Debt to Equity 51.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -10.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.2%
Return On Total Capital -14.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.4%
Return On Equity -18.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.7%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.1%
EBITDA Margin 0.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Operating Margin 4.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Pre-Tax Margin -6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.6%
Net Profit Margin -10.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.2%
Effective Tax Rate -71.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Payout Ratio -1%

LITE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LITE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1002 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lumentum Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Lumentum Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LITE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LITE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lumentum Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lumentum Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LITE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 62.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $334 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LITE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Lumentum Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lumentum Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LITE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LITE are equal to 24.1%.

Life of production assets of 4.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lumentum Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LITE is equal to 19.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $619 million for Lumentum Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 62.168 million for Lumentum Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lumentum Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.6 billion.

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Financial statements of LITE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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