Intrinsic value of Lumber Liquidators Holdings - LL

Previous Close

$24.83

  Intrinsic Value

$2.01

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

  Value-price divergence*

-223%

Previous close

$24.83

 
Intrinsic value

$2.01

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-223%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.84
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
Revenue, $m
  961
  1,019
  1,079
  1,141
  1,207
  1,275
  1,346
  1,421
  1,499
  1,580
  1,665
  1,754
  1,847
  1,945
  2,047
  2,154
  2,266
  2,384
  2,507
  2,636
  2,772
  2,914
  3,062
  3,219
  3,382
  3,554
  3,734
  3,924
  4,122
  4,330
  4,549
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  452
  479
  507
  536
  566
  597
  630
  665
  701
  739
  777
  818
  862
  907
  954
  1,004
  1,056
  1,111
  1,168
  1,228
  1,291
  1,357
  1,426
  1,498
  1,574
  1,654
  1,738
  1,826
  1,918
  2,015
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  659
  676
  692
  710
  727
  746
  764
  783
  803
  823
  844
  865
  886
  909
  931
  955
  978
  1,003
  1,028
  1,054
  1,080
  1,107
  1,135
  1,163
  1,192
  1,222
  1,252
  1,284
  1,316
  1,349
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,054
  1,111
  1,155
  1,199
  1,246
  1,293
  1,343
  1,394
  1,448
  1,504
  1,562
  1,621
  1,683
  1,748
  1,816
  1,885
  1,959
  2,034
  2,114
  2,196
  2,282
  2,371
  2,464
  2,561
  2,661
  2,766
  2,876
  2,990
  3,110
  3,234
  3,364
Operating income, $m
  -94
  -93
  -76
  -58
  -38
  -18
  3
  26
  50
  76
  103
  134
  164
  197
  232
  269
  308
  350
  394
  441
  490
  543
  599
  658
  721
  788
  858
  933
  1,012
  1,096
  1,185
EBITDA, $m
  -76
  -85
  -68
  -49
  -30
  -9
  13
  36
  61
  87
  115
  145
  176
  209
  245
  282
  322
  365
  410
  457
  508
  561
  618
  679
  742
  810
  882
  958
  1,038
  1,124
  1,214
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
Earnings before tax, $m
  -94
  -94
  -78
  -60
  -42
  -22
  -1
  21
  45
  70
  96
  126
  156
  188
  221
  257
  296
  336
  379
  425
  474
  525
  580
  638
  699
  764
  833
  906
  984
  1,066
  1,153
Tax expense, $m
  -25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  6
  12
  19
  26
  34
  42
  51
  60
  70
  80
  91
  102
  115
  128
  142
  156
  172
  189
  206
  225
  245
  266
  288
  311
Net income, $m
  -69
  -94
  -78
  -60
  -42
  -22
  -1
  15
  33
  51
  70
  92
  114
  137
  162
  188
  216
  245
  277
  310
  346
  383
  423
  465
  510
  558
  608
  662
  718
  778
  842

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  483
  501
  531
  562
  594
  628
  663
  699
  738
  778
  819
  863
  909
  957
  1,008
  1,060
  1,115
  1,173
  1,234
  1,297
  1,364
  1,434
  1,507
  1,584
  1,665
  1,749
  1,838
  1,931
  2,029
  2,131
  2,239
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  473
  501
  531
  562
  594
  628
  663
  699
  738
  778
  819
  863
  909
  957
  1,008
  1,060
  1,115
  1,173
  1,234
  1,297
  1,364
  1,434
  1,507
  1,584
  1,665
  1,749
  1,838
  1,931
  2,029
  2,131
  2,239
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.032
  2.034
  2.032
  2.030
  2.032
  2.030
  2.030
  2.033
  2.031
  2.031
  2.033
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.031
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.031
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
Average production assets, $m
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  94
  100
  105
  111
  116
  123
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  224
  235
  247
  260
  273
  287
Working capital, $m
  167
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  219
  232
  244
  258
  271
  286
  301
  317
  334
  351
  369
  389
  409
  430
  452
  475
  499
  525
  551
  579
  609
  640
  672
  706
  741
Total debt, $m
  40
  55
  71
  87
  105
  122
  141
  161
  181
  202
  225
  248
  273
  298
  325
  353
  383
  413
  446
  480
  515
  552
  591
  632
  675
  720
  768
  817
  869
  924
  981
Total liabilities, $m
  252
  267
  283
  299
  317
  334
  353
  373
  393
  414
  437
  460
  485
  510
  537
  565
  595
  625
  658
  692
  727
  764
  803
  844
  887
  932
  980
  1,029
  1,081
  1,136
  1,193
Total equity, $m
  231
  234
  248
  262
  277
  293
  309
  327
  344
  363
  383
  403
  425
  447
  471
  495
  521
  548
  576
  606
  637
  670
  704
  740
  777
  817
  858
  902
  947
  995
  1,045
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  483
  501
  531
  561
  594
  627
  662
  700
  737
  777
  820
  863
  910
  957
  1,008
  1,060
  1,116
  1,173
  1,234
  1,298
  1,364
  1,434
  1,507
  1,584
  1,664
  1,749
  1,838
  1,931
  2,028
  2,131
  2,238
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.173
  0.240
  0.290
  0.330
  0.380
  0.420
  0.460
  0.490
  0.530
  0.560
  0.590
  0.620
  0.640
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.730
  0.750
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.820
  0.840
  0.850
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -69
  -94
  -78
  -60
  -42
  -22
  -1
  15
  33
  51
  70
  92
  114
  137
  162
  188
  216
  245
  277
  310
  346
  383
  423
  465
  510
  558
  608
  662
  718
  778
  842
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
Funds from operations, $m
  -45
  -87
  -70
  -52
  -33
  -13
  8
  25
  43
  62
  82
  103
  125
  149
  175
  201
  230
  260
  293
  327
  363
  402
  442
  486
  532
  580
  632
  686
  744
  805
  870
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
Cash from operations, $m
  -28
  -96
  -80
  -62
  -44
  -24
  -3
  13
  30
  49
  68
  88
  110
  133
  158
  184
  212
  241
  273
  306
  341
  378
  418
  460
  505
  552
  602
  656
  712
  771
  835
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
New CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
Free cash flow, $m
  -36
  -105
  -90
  -73
  -55
  -36
  -16
  0
  17
  34
  53
  72
  93
  115
  139
  164
  191
  220
  250
  282
  316
  352
  390
  431
  474
  520
  569
  620
  675
  732
  794
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  20
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  107
  91
  75
  57
  38
  17
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  19
  122
  107
  91
  74
  56
  36
  22
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  37
  55
  75
  96
  118
  141
  166
  192
  221
  250
  282
  316
  351
  389
  429
  472
  517
  565
  616
  670
  727
  787
  851
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  47
  -107
  -91
  -75
  -57
  -38
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -80
  -74
  -56
  -38
  -18
  3
  4
  19
  37
  55
  75
  96
  119
  143
  168
  195
  223
  254
  286
  320
  357
  395
  436
  480
  526
  574
  626
  681
  739
  801
Discount rate, %
 
  6.60
  6.93
  7.28
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.29
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.45
  13.07
  13.72
  14.41
  15.13
  15.88
  16.68
  17.51
  18.39
  19.31
  20.27
  21.29
  22.35
  23.47
  24.64
  25.87
  27.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -75
  -65
  -46
  -28
  -12
  2
  2
  9
  16
  21
  24
  27
  28
  28
  27
  25
  23
  20
  17
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  85.9
  75.9
  68.9
  64.2
  61.4
  60.2
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1
  60.1

Lumber Liquidators Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-channel specialty retailer of hardwood flooring, and hardwood flooring enhancements and accessories. The company offers hardwood species, engineered hardwood, laminates, and resilient vinyl flooring; renewable flooring, and bamboo and cork products; and a selection of flooring enhancements and accessories, including moldings, noise-reducing underlay, adhesives, and flooring tools under the Bellawood brand and Lumber Liquidators name. It also provides in-home delivery and installation services. The company primarily serves homeowners, or to contractors on behalf of homeowners. As of December 31, 2016, it operated 383 stores in the United States and 8 stores in Canada. The company also offers its products through its Website, catalogs, and call center. Lumber Liquidators Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Toano, Virginia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lumber Liquidators Holdings (LL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -10.2
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -25.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -19
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -59.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -20.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 17.3%
Total Debt to Equity 17.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -14.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.3%
Return On Total Capital -24.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.5%
Return On Equity -27.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.6%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.4%
EBITDA Margin -7.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Operating Margin -9.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Net Profit Margin -7.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.3%
Effective Tax Rate 26.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

LL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $961 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lumber Liquidators Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Lumber Liquidators Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.6%, whose default value for LL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lumber Liquidators Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lumber Liquidators Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 44.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $643 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Lumber Liquidators Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lumber Liquidators Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LL are equal to 6.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lumber Liquidators Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LL is equal to 16.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $231 million for Lumber Liquidators Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.534 million for Lumber Liquidators Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lumber Liquidators Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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Stock chart of LL Financial statements of LL Annual reports of LL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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