Intrinsic value of Lumber Liquidators Holdings - LL

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$18.00

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$18.00

 
Intrinsic value

$2.01

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.84
  4.30
  4.37
  4.43
  4.49
  4.54
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.91
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
Revenue, $m
  961
  1,002
  1,046
  1,092
  1,142
  1,193
  1,248
  1,306
  1,367
  1,431
  1,499
  1,570
  1,645
  1,724
  1,807
  1,895
  1,987
  2,083
  2,185
  2,292
  2,405
  2,523
  2,647
  2,777
  2,915
  3,059
  3,210
  3,369
  3,536
  3,712
  3,896
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  445
  464
  485
  507
  530
  554
  579
  606
  635
  665
  695
  729
  764
  800
  839
  880
  923
  968
  1,015
  1,065
  1,117
  1,172
  1,230
  1,291
  1,355
  1,422
  1,492
  1,566
  1,644
  1,726
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  659
  676
  692
  710
  727
  746
  764
  783
  803
  823
  844
  865
  886
  909
  931
  955
  978
  1,003
  1,028
  1,054
  1,080
  1,107
  1,135
  1,163
  1,192
  1,222
  1,252
  1,284
  1,316
  1,349
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,054
  1,104
  1,140
  1,177
  1,217
  1,257
  1,300
  1,343
  1,389
  1,438
  1,488
  1,539
  1,594
  1,650
  1,709
  1,770
  1,835
  1,901
  1,971
  2,043
  2,119
  2,197
  2,279
  2,365
  2,454
  2,547
  2,644
  2,744
  2,850
  2,960
  3,075
Operating income, $m
  -94
  -102
  -94
  -85
  -75
  -64
  -51
  -38
  -23
  -7
  11
  31
  52
  74
  98
  124
  152
  182
  214
  249
  286
  325
  367
  412
  461
  512
  566
  624
  686
  752
  822
EBITDA, $m
  -76
  -83
  -75
  -65
  -54
  -42
  -29
  -14
  2
  19
  38
  58
  80
  104
  129
  157
  187
  218
  252
  289
  327
  369
  413
  461
  511
  565
  622
  683
  747
  816
  889
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
Earnings before tax, $m
  -94
  -103
  -96
  -87
  -78
  -67
  -55
  -42
  -28
  -12
  5
  24
  44
  66
  90
  115
  142
  171
  202
  236
  272
  310
  351
  395
  442
  492
  545
  602
  662
  726
  794
Tax expense, $m
  -25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  7
  12
  18
  24
  31
  38
  46
  55
  64
  73
  84
  95
  107
  119
  133
  147
  162
  179
  196
  214
Net income, $m
  -69
  -103
  -96
  -87
  -78
  -67
  -55
  -42
  -28
  -12
  4
  18
  32
  48
  65
  84
  104
  125
  148
  172
  198
  227
  256
  289
  323
  359
  398
  439
  483
  530
  580

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  483
  500
  521
  545
  569
  595
  622
  651
  681
  713
  747
  783
  820
  859
  901
  944
  990
  1,039
  1,089
  1,143
  1,199
  1,258
  1,319
  1,385
  1,453
  1,525
  1,600
  1,680
  1,763
  1,850
  1,942
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  473
  500
  521
  545
  569
  595
  622
  651
  681
  713
  747
  783
  820
  859
  901
  944
  990
  1,039
  1,089
  1,143
  1,199
  1,258
  1,319
  1,385
  1,453
  1,525
  1,600
  1,680
  1,763
  1,850
  1,942
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.032
  2.004
  2.008
  2.004
  2.007
  2.005
  2.006
  2.006
  2.007
  2.007
  2.007
  2.005
  2.006
  2.007
  2.006
  2.007
  2.007
  2.005
  2.006
  2.005
  2.006
  2.006
  2.007
  2.005
  2.006
  2.006
  2.006
  2.005
  2.006
  2.006
  2.006
Average production assets, $m
  61
  123
  129
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
  296
  310
  326
  342
  358
  376
  395
  414
  435
  457
  479
Working capital, $m
  167
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  338
  354
  371
  390
  409
  429
  450
  472
  495
  520
  546
  573
  601
  631
  662
Total debt, $m
  40
  51
  63
  76
  89
  103
  117
  133
  149
  167
  185
  204
  224
  245
  268
  291
  316
  342
  369
  398
  428
  460
  493
  528
  565
  604
  645
  687
  732
  779
  829
Total liabilities, $m
  252
  269
  281
  294
  307
  321
  335
  351
  367
  385
  403
  422
  442
  463
  486
  509
  534
  560
  587
  616
  646
  678
  711
  746
  783
  822
  863
  905
  950
  997
  1,047
Total equity, $m
  231
  230
  240
  251
  262
  274
  287
  300
  314
  329
  344
  361
  378
  396
  415
  435
  457
  479
  502
  527
  553
  580
  608
  638
  670
  703
  738
  774
  813
  853
  895
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  483
  499
  521
  545
  569
  595
  622
  651
  681
  714
  747
  783
  820
  859
  901
  944
  991
  1,039
  1,089
  1,143
  1,199
  1,258
  1,319
  1,384
  1,453
  1,525
  1,601
  1,679
  1,763
  1,850
  1,942
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.173
  0.220
  0.260
  0.300
  0.340
  0.370
  0.410
  0.440
  0.480
  0.510
  0.540
  0.560
  0.590
  0.620
  0.640
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.830
  0.840
  0.860
  0.870
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.467
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -69
  -103
  -96
  -87
  -78
  -67
  -55
  -42
  -28
  -12
  4
  18
  32
  48
  65
  84
  104
  125
  148
  172
  198
  227
  256
  289
  323
  359
  398
  439
  483
  530
  580
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
Funds from operations, $m
  -45
  -85
  -76
  -67
  -57
  -45
  -32
  -18
  -3
  14
  31
  45
  61
  78
  97
  117
  138
  161
  186
  212
  240
  270
  302
  337
  373
  412
  454
  498
  545
  594
  647
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
Cash from operations, $m
  -28
  -95
  -84
  -75
  -65
  -54
  -42
  -28
  -13
  3
  19
  33
  48
  65
  83
  102
  122
  145
  168
  194
  221
  250
  281
  314
  350
  388
  428
  471
  516
  565
  616
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
New CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
Free cash flow, $m
  -36
  -117
  -107
  -99
  -90
  -80
  -69
  -57
  -44
  -29
  -14
  -2
  12
  26
  42
  60
  78
  98
  120
  143
  167
  194
  222
  253
  285
  319
  356
  395
  437
  482
  529
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  20
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  105
  105
  97
  88
  78
  67
  55
  41
  26
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  19
  116
  117
  109
  101
  92
  82
  71
  57
  43
  29
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -16
  -105
  -95
  -86
  -77
  -66
  -54
  -41
  -27
  -12
  4
  17
  32
  48
  65
  83
  103
  124
  147
  171
  198
  226
  256
  288
  322
  358
  397
  438
  482
  529
  579
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  47
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  15
  30
  46
  63
  82
  102
  124
  147
  172
  199
  227
  258
  290
  325
  362
  402
  444
  488
  536
Discount rate, %
 
  6.60
  6.93
  7.28
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.29
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.45
  13.07
  13.72
  14.41
  15.13
  15.88
  16.68
  17.51
  18.39
  19.31
  20.27
  21.29
  22.35
  23.47
  24.64
  25.87
  27.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  4
  7
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  81.9
  67.5
  56.9
  48.9
  42.9
  38.5
  35.4
  33.3
  32.0
  31.5
  31.5
  31.5
  31.5
  31.5
  31.5
  31.5
  31.5
  31.5
  31.5
  31.5
  31.5
  31.5
  31.5
  31.5
  31.5
  31.5
  31.5
  31.5
  31.5
  31.5

Lumber Liquidators Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-channel specialty retailer of hardwood flooring, and hardwood flooring enhancements and accessories. The company offers hardwood species, engineered hardwood, laminates, and resilient vinyl flooring; renewable flooring, and bamboo and cork products; and a selection of flooring enhancements and accessories, including moldings, noise-reducing underlay, adhesives, and flooring tools under the Bellawood brand and Lumber Liquidators name. It also provides in-home delivery and installation services. The company primarily serves homeowners, or to contractors on behalf of homeowners. As of December 31, 2016, it operated 383 stores in the United States and 8 stores in Canada. The company also offers its products through its Website, catalogs, and call center. Lumber Liquidators Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Toano, Virginia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lumber Liquidators Holdings (LL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -7.4
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -18.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -13.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -59.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -20.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 17.3%
Total Debt to Equity 17.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -14.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.3%
Return On Total Capital -24.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.5%
Return On Equity -27.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.6%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.4%
EBITDA Margin -7.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Operating Margin -9.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Net Profit Margin -7.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.3%
Effective Tax Rate 26.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

LL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $961 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lumber Liquidators Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Lumber Liquidators Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.6%, whose default value for LL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lumber Liquidators Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lumber Liquidators Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 44.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $643 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Lumber Liquidators Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lumber Liquidators Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LL are equal to 12.3%.

Life of production assets of 7.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lumber Liquidators Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LL is equal to 17%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $231 million for Lumber Liquidators Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.534 million for Lumber Liquidators Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lumber Liquidators Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.


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Stock chart of LL Financial statements of LL Annual reports of LL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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