Intrinsic value of Limelight Networks - LLNW

Previous Close

$3.60

  Intrinsic Value

$0.15

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

  Value-price divergence*

-161%

Previous close

$3.60

 
Intrinsic value

$0.15

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-161%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LLNW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.75
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.83
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
Revenue, $m
  168
  184
  202
  220
  238
  258
  278
  299
  321
  343
  367
  391
  417
  443
  471
  500
  529
  561
  593
  627
  663
  699
  738
  779
  821
  865
  911
  960
  1,010
  1,063
  1,119
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  212
  231
  251
  272
  294
  316
  339
  363
  389
  415
  434
  463
  492
  523
  554
  588
  622
  658
  696
  735
  776
  819
  864
  911
  960
  1,011
  1,065
  1,121
  1,180
  1,242
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  241
  212
  231
  251
  272
  294
  316
  339
  363
  389
  415
  434
  463
  492
  523
  554
  588
  622
  658
  696
  735
  776
  819
  864
  911
  960
  1,011
  1,065
  1,121
  1,180
  1,242
Operating income, $m
  -72
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
EBITDA, $m
  -52
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  7
  14
  22
  29
  37
  46
  55
  64
  73
  83
  93
  104
  115
  126
  138
  151
  164
  177
  191
  206
  222
  238
  254
  272
  290
  310
  330
  351
  373
Earnings before tax, $m
  -73
  -28
  -37
  -46
  -55
  -65
  -75
  -86
  -97
  -109
  -121
  -126
  -139
  -152
  -166
  -181
  -196
  -212
  -229
  -246
  -264
  -283
  -303
  -323
  -345
  -367
  -390
  -415
  -441
  -468
  -496
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -74
  -28
  -37
  -46
  -55
  -65
  -75
  -86
  -97
  -109
  -121
  -126
  -139
  -152
  -166
  -181
  -196
  -212
  -229
  -246
  -264
  -283
  -303
  -323
  -345
  -367
  -390
  -415
  -441
  -468
  -496

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  66
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  208
  156
  170
  186
  201
  218
  235
  253
  271
  290
  310
  331
  352
  375
  398
  422
  448
  474
  501
  530
  560
  591
  624
  658
  694
  731
  770
  811
  854
  899
  946
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  142
  156
  170
  186
  201
  218
  235
  253
  271
  290
  310
  331
  352
  375
  398
  422
  448
  474
  501
  530
  560
  591
  624
  658
  694
  731
  770
  811
  854
  899
  946
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.183
  1.179
  1.188
  1.183
  1.184
  1.183
  1.183
  1.182
  1.185
  1.183
  1.184
  1.181
  1.185
  1.181
  1.183
  1.185
  1.181
  1.184
  1.184
  1.183
  1.184
  1.183
  1.183
  1.184
  1.183
  1.183
  1.183
  1.184
  1.183
  1.182
  1.183
Average production assets, $m
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  51
  54
  59
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  188
  198
  208
  219
Working capital, $m
  57
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
Total debt, $m
  0
  7
  14
  22
  29
  37
  46
  55
  64
  73
  83
  93
  104
  115
  126
  138
  151
  164
  177
  191
  206
  222
  238
  254
  272
  290
  310
  330
  351
  373
  396
Total liabilities, $m
  71
  77
  84
  92
  99
  107
  116
  125
  134
  143
  153
  163
  174
  185
  196
  208
  221
  234
  247
  261
  276
  292
  308
  324
  342
  360
  380
  400
  421
  443
  466
Total equity, $m
  138
  79
  86
  94
  102
  110
  119
  128
  137
  147
  157
  168
  179
  190
  202
  214
  227
  240
  254
  269
  284
  300
  316
  334
  352
  371
  391
  411
  433
  456
  480
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  209
  156
  170
  186
  201
  217
  235
  253
  271
  290
  310
  331
  353
  375
  398
  422
  448
  474
  501
  530
  560
  592
  624
  658
  694
  731
  771
  811
  854
  899
  946
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.090
  0.160
  0.230
  0.290
  0.340
  0.380
  0.430
  0.460
  0.500
  0.530
  0.550
  0.580
  0.600
  0.630
  0.650
  0.660
  0.680
  0.700
  0.710
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -74
  -28
  -37
  -46
  -55
  -65
  -75
  -86
  -97
  -109
  -121
  -126
  -139
  -152
  -166
  -181
  -196
  -212
  -229
  -246
  -264
  -283
  -303
  -323
  -345
  -367
  -390
  -415
  -441
  -468
  -496
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  20
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Funds from operations, $m
  -1
  -17
  -25
  -34
  -43
  -53
  -62
  -73
  -83
  -95
  -106
  -118
  -131
  -144
  -157
  -171
  -186
  -201
  -217
  -234
  -251
  -269
  -288
  -308
  -328
  -350
  -373
  -396
  -421
  -447
  -474
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  7
  -16
  -24
  -33
  -42
  -51
  -61
  -72
  -82
  -93
  -105
  -117
  -129
  -142
  -156
  -170
  -184
  -200
  -215
  -232
  -249
  -267
  -286
  -306
  -326
  -348
  -370
  -394
  -418
  -444
  -471
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -25
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
Free cash flow, $m
  -18
  -22
  -31
  -40
  -50
  -60
  -70
  -81
  -92
  -104
  -116
  -129
  -142
  -156
  -170
  -185
  -200
  -216
  -233
  -250
  -268
  -287
  -307
  -328
  -350
  -372
  -396
  -421
  -447
  -474
  -503
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  35
  44
  53
  63
  73
  84
  95
  107
  119
  131
  136
  150
  164
  178
  193
  209
  226
  243
  261
  279
  299
  319
  340
  363
  386
  410
  436
  462
  490
  520
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  42
  51
  60
  71
  81
  92
  104
  116
  128
  141
  146
  161
  175
  189
  205
  221
  239
  257
  275
  294
  314
  335
  357
  381
  404
  429
  456
  483
  512
  543
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -23
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  60
  -35
  -44
  -53
  -63
  -73
  -84
  -95
  -107
  -119
  -131
  -136
  -150
  -164
  -178
  -193
  -209
  -226
  -243
  -261
  -279
  -299
  -319
  -340
  -363
  -386
  -410
  -436
  -462
  -490
  -520
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  66
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  51
  -24
  -33
  -42
  -52
  -62
  -72
  -83
  -95
  -106
  -119
  -131
  -145
  -158
  -173
  -187
  -203
  -219
  -236
  -254
  -272
  -291
  -311
  -332
  -354
  -377
  -401
  -426
  -452
  -480
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  49
  -22
  -29
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -56
  -56
  -55
  -53
  -51
  -48
  -44
  -40
  -36
  -32
  -28
  -24
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  85.1
  70.9
  57.9
  46.6
  37.0
  29.0
  22.5
  17.3
  13.2
  10.0
  7.6
  5.7
  4.3
  3.2
  2.4
  1.8
  1.3
  1.0
  0.7
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Limelight Networks, Inc. provides content delivery network services to deliver digital content over the Internet in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers the Orchestrate Platform, a suite of integrated services, which include content delivery services, mobile delivery services, video content management services, performance services for Website and Web application acceleration and security, cloud storage services for various devices, and cloud-based content security services. It also offers professional services and other infrastructure services, such as transit and rack space services. The company serves traditional and emerging media companies operating in the television, music, radio, newspaper, magazine, movie, game, software, and social media industries, as well as enterprises, technology companies, and government entities conducting business online. Limelight Networks, Inc. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Limelight Networks (LLNW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -5.2
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 55.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -128.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -60%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage -72
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -33.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.9%
Return On Total Capital -43.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.2%
Return On Equity -44%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.3%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 42.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.3%
EBITDA Margin -31%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.9%
Operating Margin -43.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -25.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -43.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.3%
Net Profit Margin -44%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.5%
Effective Tax Rate -1.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

LLNW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LLNW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $168 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Limelight Networks. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Limelight Networks. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LLNW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LLNW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Limelight Networks, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Limelight Networks.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LLNW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 115.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LLNW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 100% for Limelight Networks.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Limelight Networks. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LLNW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LLNW are equal to 19.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Limelight Networks operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LLNW is equal to -5.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $138 million for Limelight Networks - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 106.128 million for Limelight Networks is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Limelight Networks at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Limelight Networks, Inc. Shares Rose 18% in July   [Aug-07-17 03:10PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Limelight Networks reports 2Q loss   [Jul-26-17 10:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Limelight Networks, Inc. Stock Rose 22% in April   [May-10-17 06:43PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Limelight Networks reports highest revenue in 16 quarters   [Apr-25-17 05:35PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Limelight Networks reports 1Q loss   [Apr-24-17 04:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ How Limelight Networks, Inc. Rose 15% in March   [Apr-05-17 07:31PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Limelight Networks, Inc. Stock Popped Today   [Mar-16-17 10:56PM  Motley Fool]
▶ How Limelight Networks, Inc. Gained 75% in 2016   [Jan-17-17 09:44AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Why Limelight Networks, Inc. Stock Popped 18.9% in December   [Jan-03-17 05:37PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ How Limelight Networks, Inc. (LLNW) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-12-16 08:19PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ NeuStar sees big opportunity in massive cyber attacks   [Oct-31-16 03:33PM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of LLNW Financial statements of LLNW
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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