Intrinsic value of Legg Mason - LM

Previous Close

$44.70

  Intrinsic Value

$26.91

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-40%

Previous close

$44.70

 
Intrinsic value

$26.91

 
Up/down potential

-40%

 
Rating

sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as LM.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.49
  8.50
  8.15
  7.83
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  2,887
  3,132
  3,388
  3,653
  3,929
  4,216
  4,514
  4,823
  5,145
  5,480
  5,828
  6,191
  6,568
  6,962
  7,372
  7,799
  8,245
  8,711
  9,197
  9,706
  10,237
  10,792
  11,373
  11,981
  12,617
  13,283
  13,981
  14,712
  15,477
  16,279
  17,120
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,057
  3,290
  3,533
  3,785
  4,047
  4,319
  4,602
  4,897
  5,203
  5,521
  5,660
  6,005
  6,365
  6,740
  7,131
  7,539
  7,965
  8,409
  8,874
  9,360
  9,868
  10,399
  10,955
  11,536
  12,145
  12,783
  13,451
  14,151
  14,884
  15,653
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,465
  3,057
  3,290
  3,533
  3,785
  4,047
  4,319
  4,602
  4,897
  5,203
  5,521
  5,660
  6,005
  6,365
  6,740
  7,131
  7,539
  7,965
  8,409
  8,874
  9,360
  9,868
  10,399
  10,955
  11,536
  12,145
  12,783
  13,451
  14,151
  14,884
  15,653
Operating income, $m
  422
  76
  98
  120
  144
  169
  194
  221
  248
  277
  307
  530
  563
  596
  632
  668
  706
  746
  788
  832
  877
  925
  974
  1,027
  1,081
  1,138
  1,198
  1,260
  1,326
  1,395
  1,467
EBITDA, $m
  502
  404
  437
  471
  507
  544
  582
  622
  664
  707
  752
  798
  847
  898
  951
  1,006
  1,063
  1,124
  1,186
  1,252
  1,320
  1,392
  1,467
  1,545
  1,627
  1,713
  1,803
  1,897
  1,996
  2,100
  2,208
Interest expense (income), $m
  105
  116
  134
  154
  175
  196
  218
  241
  265
  290
  316
  343
  371
  401
  431
  463
  496
  531
  567
  604
  644
  685
  728
  773
  820
  869
  921
  975
  1,032
  1,091
  1,153
Earnings before tax, $m
  371
  -40
  -37
  -34
  -31
  -27
  -24
  -21
  -17
  -13
  -9
  187
  191
  196
  201
  205
  211
  216
  221
  227
  233
  240
  247
  254
  261
  269
  277
  285
  294
  304
  314
Tax expense, $m
  84
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  51
  52
  53
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  65
  67
  68
  70
  73
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
Net income, $m
  227
  -40
  -37
  -34
  -31
  -27
  -24
  -21
  -17
  -13
  -9
  137
  140
  143
  146
  150
  154
  158
  162
  166
  170
  175
  180
  185
  191
  196
  202
  208
  215
  222
  229

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,208
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,290
  7,677
  8,303
  8,954
  9,630
  10,332
  11,063
  11,822
  12,611
  13,431
  14,285
  15,173
  16,099
  17,063
  18,068
  19,116
  20,209
  21,351
  22,543
  23,788
  25,090
  26,452
  27,875
  29,365
  30,925
  32,557
  34,267
  36,058
  37,934
  39,900
  41,961
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,082
  7,677
  8,303
  8,954
  9,630
  10,332
  11,063
  11,822
  12,611
  13,431
  14,285
  15,173
  16,099
  17,063
  18,068
  19,116
  20,209
  21,351
  22,543
  23,788
  25,090
  26,452
  27,875
  29,365
  30,925
  32,557
  34,267
  36,058
  37,934
  39,900
  41,961
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
Average production assets, $m
  3,752
  4,069
  4,401
  4,745
  5,104
  5,476
  5,863
  6,265
  6,683
  7,118
  7,571
  8,042
  8,532
  9,043
  9,576
  10,131
  10,711
  11,316
  11,948
  12,608
  13,298
  14,019
  14,774
  15,563
  16,390
  17,255
  18,161
  19,110
  20,105
  21,147
  22,239
Working capital, $m
  993
  -232
  -251
  -270
  -291
  -312
  -334
  -357
  -381
  -406
  -431
  -458
  -486
  -515
  -545
  -577
  -610
  -645
  -681
  -718
  -758
  -799
  -842
  -887
  -934
  -983
  -1,035
  -1,089
  -1,145
  -1,205
  -1,267
Total debt, $m
  2,222
  2,583
  2,963
  3,359
  3,770
  4,197
  4,641
  5,102
  5,582
  6,081
  6,600
  7,140
  7,703
  8,289
  8,900
  9,537
  10,202
  10,896
  11,621
  12,378
  13,170
  13,998
  14,863
  15,769
  16,717
  17,710
  18,749
  19,838
  20,979
  22,174
  23,427
Total liabilities, $m
  4,307
  4,668
  5,048
  5,444
  5,855
  6,282
  6,726
  7,187
  7,667
  8,166
  8,685
  9,225
  9,788
  10,374
  10,985
  11,622
  12,287
  12,981
  13,706
  14,463
  15,255
  16,083
  16,948
  17,854
  18,802
  19,795
  20,834
  21,923
  23,064
  24,259
  25,512
Total equity, $m
  3,983
  3,010
  3,255
  3,510
  3,775
  4,050
  4,337
  4,634
  4,943
  5,265
  5,600
  5,948
  6,311
  6,689
  7,082
  7,493
  7,922
  8,369
  8,837
  9,325
  9,835
  10,369
  10,927
  11,511
  12,122
  12,762
  13,433
  14,135
  14,870
  15,641
  16,449
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,290
  7,678
  8,303
  8,954
  9,630
  10,332
  11,063
  11,821
  12,610
  13,431
  14,285
  15,173
  16,099
  17,063
  18,067
  19,115
  20,209
  21,350
  22,543
  23,788
  25,090
  26,452
  27,875
  29,365
  30,924
  32,557
  34,267
  36,058
  37,934
  39,900
  41,961
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.558
  0.860
  0.910
  0.960
  1.000
  1.040
  1.070
  1.100
  1.130
  1.160
  1.180
  1.200
  1.220
  1.240
  1.260
  1.270
  1.290
  1.300
  1.320
  1.330
  1.340
  1.350
  1.360
  1.370
  1.380
  1.390
  1.400
  1.400
  1.410
  1.420
  1.420
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  227
  -40
  -37
  -34
  -31
  -27
  -24
  -21
  -17
  -13
  -9
  137
  140
  143
  146
  150
  154
  158
  162
  166
  170
  175
  180
  185
  191
  196
  202
  208
  215
  222
  229
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  80
  328
  339
  351
  363
  375
  388
  401
  415
  430
  445
  268
  284
  301
  319
  338
  357
  377
  398
  420
  443
  467
  492
  519
  546
  575
  605
  637
  670
  705
  741
Funds from operations, $m
  615
  288
  303
  317
  332
  348
  364
  381
  398
  417
  435
  405
  424
  444
  466
  488
  511
  535
  560
  586
  614
  642
  672
  704
  737
  771
  808
  845
  885
  927
  970
Change in working capital, $m
  75
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
Cash from operations, $m
  540
  307
  322
  337
  353
  369
  386
  404
  422
  441
  461
  432
  452
  474
  496
  519
  544
  569
  596
  624
  653
  683
  715
  749
  784
  821
  859
  899
  942
  986
  1,033
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -125
  -136
  -147
  -158
  -170
  -183
  -195
  -209
  -223
  -237
  -252
  -268
  -284
  -301
  -319
  -338
  -357
  -377
  -398
  -420
  -443
  -467
  -492
  -519
  -546
  -575
  -605
  -637
  -670
  -705
New CAPEX, $m
  -40
  -317
  -332
  -345
  -358
  -372
  -387
  -402
  -418
  -435
  -452
  -471
  -490
  -511
  -533
  -555
  -580
  -605
  -632
  -660
  -690
  -721
  -755
  -790
  -826
  -865
  -906
  -949
  -994
  -1,042
  -1,092
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,020
  -442
  -468
  -492
  -516
  -542
  -570
  -597
  -627
  -658
  -689
  -723
  -758
  -795
  -834
  -874
  -918
  -962
  -1,009
  -1,058
  -1,110
  -1,164
  -1,222
  -1,282
  -1,345
  -1,411
  -1,481
  -1,554
  -1,631
  -1,712
  -1,797
Free cash flow, $m
  -480
  -136
  -146
  -155
  -164
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -205
  -216
  -228
  -292
  -306
  -322
  -338
  -355
  -374
  -393
  -413
  -435
  -457
  -481
  -507
  -533
  -561
  -591
  -622
  -655
  -690
  -726
  -765
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  460
  361
  380
  396
  411
  427
  444
  461
  480
  499
  519
  540
  563
  586
  611
  637
  665
  694
  725
  757
  792
  828
  866
  906
  948
  993
  1,039
  1,089
  1,141
  1,195
  1,253
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -372
  274
  282
  289
  296
  303
  310
  318
  326
  335
  344
  212
  223
  235
  248
  261
  275
  290
  306
  322
  340
  359
  378
  399
  421
  444
  468
  494
  521
  549
  579
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -29
  635
  662
  685
  707
  730
  754
  779
  806
  834
  863
  752
  786
  821
  859
  898
  940
  984
  1,031
  1,079
  1,132
  1,187
  1,244
  1,305
  1,369
  1,437
  1,507
  1,583
  1,662
  1,744
  1,832
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -507
  499
  517
  529
  543
  556
  571
  586
  601
  617
  635
  460
  479
  499
  520
  543
  566
  591
  617
  645
  674
  705
  737
  772
  808
  845
  885
  927
  972
  1,018
  1,067
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  231
  -274
  -282
  -289
  -296
  -303
  -310
  -318
  -326
  -335
  -344
  -348
  -363
  -378
  -394
  -411
  -429
  -447
  -467
  -488
  -510
  -534
  -558
  -584
  -611
  -640
  -670
  -702
  -735
  -771
  -808
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,208
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,433
  235
  241
  247
  254
  260
  267
  275
  283
  291
  112
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  188
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
Discount rate, %
 
  4.50
  4.73
  4.96
  5.21
  5.47
  5.74
  6.03
  6.33
  6.65
  6.98
  7.33
  7.70
  8.08
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.82
  10.31
  10.83
  11.37
  11.94
  12.54
  13.16
  13.82
  14.51
  15.24
  16.00
  16.80
  17.64
  18.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,371
  214
  208
  202
  194
  186
  177
  168
  158
  148
  51
  48
  44
  40
  37
  33
  29
  26
  22
  19
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  91.3
  83.7
  77.1
  71.4
  66.2
  61.7
  57.6
  53.9
  50.6
  47.6
  46.0
  44.4
  42.8
  41.3
  39.9
  38.6
  37.2
  36.0
  34.8
  33.6
  32.4
  31.3
  30.3
  29.2
  28.2
  27.3
  26.3
  25.4
  24.6
  23.7

Legg Mason, Inc. is a holding company. The Company and its subsidiaries are principally engaged in providing asset management and related financial services to individuals, institutions, corporations and municipalities. The Company operates through Global Asset Management segment. Global Asset Management provides investment advisory services to institutional and individual clients and to the Company-sponsored investment funds. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides investment management and related services to institutional and individual clients, Company-sponsored investment funds and retail separately managed account programs. It offers its products and services directly and through various financial intermediaries. It has operations principally in the United States and the United Kingdom and also has offices in Australia, Bahamas, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Dubai, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Poland, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland and Taiwan.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Legg Mason (LM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.9
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 55.8%
Total Debt to Equity 55.8%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Total Capital 3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Return On Equity 5.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 82.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 80.4%
EBITDA Margin 19.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Operating Margin 14.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Net Profit Margin 7.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Effective Tax Rate 22.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Payout Ratio 38.8%

LM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2887 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Legg Mason. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Legg Mason. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.5%, whose default value for LM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Legg Mason, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Legg Mason.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.2% for Legg Mason.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Legg Mason. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LM are equal to 129.9%.

Life of production assets of 68.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Legg Mason operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LM is equal to -7.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3983 million for Legg Mason - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 92.425 million for Legg Mason is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Legg Mason at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.1 billion.

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Financial statements of LM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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