Intrinsic value of Luminex - LMNX

Previous Close

$20.28

  Intrinsic Value

$1.99

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

  Value-price divergence*

+2%

Previous close

$20.28

 
Intrinsic value

$1.99

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+2%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LMNX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.87
  23.80
  21.92
  20.23
  18.71
  17.33
  16.10
  14.99
  13.99
  13.09
  12.28
  11.56
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
Revenue, $m
  271
  335
  409
  492
  584
  685
  795
  914
  1,042
  1,179
  1,324
  1,477
  1,638
  1,806
  1,983
  2,168
  2,360
  2,560
  2,768
  2,985
  3,210
  3,444
  3,687
  3,939
  4,202
  4,475
  4,759
  5,055
  5,363
  5,684
  6,018
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  289
  350
  419
  496
  581
  673
  773
  880
  994
  1,115
  1,234
  1,368
  1,510
  1,657
  1,811
  1,972
  2,139
  2,313
  2,494
  2,682
  2,878
  3,081
  3,292
  3,511
  3,740
  3,977
  4,224
  4,481
  4,750
  5,029
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  251
  289
  350
  419
  496
  581
  673
  773
  880
  994
  1,115
  1,234
  1,368
  1,510
  1,657
  1,811
  1,972
  2,139
  2,313
  2,494
  2,682
  2,878
  3,081
  3,292
  3,511
  3,740
  3,977
  4,224
  4,481
  4,750
  5,029
Operating income, $m
  19
  47
  59
  72
  87
  104
  122
  142
  163
  185
  209
  243
  269
  297
  326
  356
  388
  421
  455
  491
  528
  566
  606
  647
  691
  736
  782
  831
  881
  934
  989
EBITDA, $m
  39
  70
  86
  103
  123
  144
  167
  192
  219
  248
  278
  310
  344
  379
  416
  455
  495
  538
  581
  627
  674
  723
  774
  827
  882
  940
  999
  1,061
  1,126
  1,193
  1,264
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
Earnings before tax, $m
  20
  47
  58
  71
  86
  102
  120
  139
  159
  181
  204
  236
  262
  289
  317
  346
  376
  408
  441
  475
  511
  548
  587
  627
  668
  712
  757
  804
  853
  903
  956
Tax expense, $m
  6
  13
  16
  19
  23
  28
  32
  37
  43
  49
  55
  64
  71
  78
  85
  93
  102
  110
  119
  128
  138
  148
  158
  169
  180
  192
  204
  217
  230
  244
  258
Net income, $m
  14
  34
  43
  52
  63
  75
  87
  101
  116
  132
  149
  173
  191
  211
  231
  253
  275
  298
  322
  347
  373
  400
  428
  458
  488
  520
  552
  587
  622
  659
  698

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  93
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  451
  443
  540
  650
  771
  905
  1,051
  1,208
  1,377
  1,557
  1,749
  1,951
  2,163
  2,386
  2,620
  2,863
  3,117
  3,382
  3,657
  3,943
  4,240
  4,549
  4,870
  5,204
  5,551
  5,912
  6,287
  6,678
  7,085
  7,508
  7,950
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  358
  443
  540
  650
  771
  905
  1,051
  1,208
  1,377
  1,557
  1,749
  1,951
  2,163
  2,386
  2,620
  2,863
  3,117
  3,382
  3,657
  3,943
  4,240
  4,549
  4,870
  5,204
  5,551
  5,912
  6,287
  6,678
  7,085
  7,508
  7,950
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.757
  0.756
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.756
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
  0.757
Average production assets, $m
  124
  153
  187
  224
  266
  312
  363
  417
  475
  538
  604
  673
  747
  824
  904
  988
  1,076
  1,167
  1,262
  1,361
  1,464
  1,570
  1,681
  1,796
  1,916
  2,041
  2,170
  2,305
  2,446
  2,592
  2,744
Working capital, $m
  134
  51
  62
  74
  88
  103
  120
  138
  157
  178
  200
  223
  247
  273
  299
  327
  356
  387
  418
  451
  485
  520
  557
  595
  634
  676
  719
  763
  810
  858
  909
Total debt, $m
  0
  11
  24
  38
  54
  72
  91
  111
  133
  157
  182
  209
  236
  266
  296
  328
  361
  396
  432
  470
  508
  549
  591
  635
  680
  727
  777
  828
  881
  937
  994
Total liabilities, $m
  47
  58
  71
  85
  101
  119
  138
  158
  180
  204
  229
  256
  283
  313
  343
  375
  408
  443
  479
  517
  555
  596
  638
  682
  727
  774
  824
  875
  928
  984
  1,041
Total equity, $m
  404
  385
  470
  565
  670
  786
  913
  1,050
  1,197
  1,353
  1,520
  1,695
  1,880
  2,074
  2,277
  2,488
  2,709
  2,939
  3,178
  3,426
  3,685
  3,953
  4,232
  4,522
  4,824
  5,137
  5,463
  5,803
  6,156
  6,525
  6,909
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  451
  443
  541
  650
  771
  905
  1,051
  1,208
  1,377
  1,557
  1,749
  1,951
  2,163
  2,387
  2,620
  2,863
  3,117
  3,382
  3,657
  3,943
  4,240
  4,549
  4,870
  5,204
  5,551
  5,911
  6,287
  6,678
  7,084
  7,509
  7,950
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.030
  0.050
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  14
  34
  43
  52
  63
  75
  87
  101
  116
  132
  149
  173
  191
  211
  231
  253
  275
  298
  322
  347
  373
  400
  428
  458
  488
  520
  552
  587
  622
  659
  698
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  20
  24
  27
  31
  35
  40
  45
  50
  56
  62
  69
  67
  75
  82
  90
  99
  108
  117
  126
  136
  146
  157
  168
  180
  192
  204
  217
  231
  245
  259
  274
Funds from operations, $m
  51
  58
  70
  83
  98
  114
  132
  151
  172
  194
  217
  240
  266
  293
  322
  351
  382
  415
  448
  483
  520
  557
  596
  637
  680
  724
  769
  817
  867
  919
  973
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  51
Cash from operations, $m
  50
  48
  59
  71
  84
  99
  115
  133
  153
  173
  196
  217
  242
  268
  295
  323
  353
  384
  417
  451
  486
  522
  560
  599
  640
  682
  727
  773
  820
  870
  922
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -12
  -15
  -19
  -22
  -27
  -31
  -36
  -42
  -48
  -54
  -60
  -67
  -75
  -82
  -90
  -99
  -108
  -117
  -126
  -136
  -146
  -157
  -168
  -180
  -192
  -204
  -217
  -231
  -245
  -259
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -29
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -153
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -63
  -41
  -49
  -57
  -64
  -73
  -81
  -90
  -100
  -110
  -120
  -130
  -140
  -152
  -163
  -174
  -187
  -199
  -212
  -225
  -239
  -253
  -268
  -283
  -300
  -317
  -334
  -352
  -371
  -391
  -412
Free cash flow, $m
  -13
  6
  10
  14
  20
  26
  34
  43
  53
  64
  76
  87
  101
  116
  132
  149
  167
  186
  205
  226
  247
  269
  292
  316
  341
  366
  393
  421
  449
  479
  510
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -25
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  40
  42
  43
  43
  42
  39
  36
  31
  25
  18
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -22
  51
  55
  57
  59
  60
  58
  57
  53
  49
  43
  29
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -35
  57
  64
  71
  78
  85
  92
  99
  106
  112
  118
  116
  129
  145
  163
  181
  200
  220
  241
  263
  286
  309
  334
  359
  386
  414
  442
  472
  503
  535
  568
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -35
  -74
  -84
  -95
  -106
  -116
  -127
  -137
  -147
  -157
  -166
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -221
  -230
  -239
  -249
  -258
  -268
  -279
  -290
  -301
  -314
  -326
  -340
  -354
  -368
  -384
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  93
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  76
  -20
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -59
  -56
  -49
  -40
  -31
  -21
  -10
  2
  14
  27
  41
  55
  70
  85
  100
  116
  132
  149
  166
  184
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  73
  -18
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -25
  -28
  -24
  -19
  -14
  -9
  -5
  -2
  0
  2
  3
  4
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.0
  89.2
  85.3
  82.2
  79.8
  77.9
  76.4
  75.3
  74.5
  74.0
  74.0
  74.0
  74.0
  74.0
  74.0
  74.0
  74.0
  74.0
  74.0
  74.0
  74.0
  74.0
  74.0
  74.0
  74.0
  74.0
  74.0
  74.0
  74.0
  74.0

Luminex Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells proprietary biological testing technologies and products for the diagnostics, pharmaceutical, and life sciences industries worldwide. It develops proprietary instruments and assays utilizing its xMAP open-architecture multi-analyte platform, MultiCode real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and multiplex PCR-based technologies. The company’s products include Luminex LX 100/200 that integrates fluidics, optics, and digital signal processing; FLEXMAP 3D system for use as a general laboratory instrument; MAGPIX system, a multiplexing analyzer for qualitative and quantitative analysis of proteins and nucleic acids; and ARIES system, a sample to answer real-time PCR platform. It also offers MicroPlex, MagPlex, xTAG, SeroMAP, and calibration and control microspheres; ARIES cassettes that are self-contained assay consumables; xPONENT, a software suite to simplify laboratory workflow and enhance productivity; respiratory viral family of products to identify the causative agent for respiratory infections; and gastrointestinal pathogen panel assays to identify the pathogens causing infectious gastroenteritis. In addition, the company offers MultiCode assays and products comprising HSV 1&2 assays, analyte specific reagents, and other products to detect infectious agents in clinical samples; ARIES HSV 1&2 assays; cystic fibrosis family of products comprising IVD kits for cystic fibrosis genotyping; pharmacogenetics family of products consisting of assays to determine the drug metabolism status; and specialty product family and instrumentation products, as well as operates as an original equipment manufacturer of custom reagents and instrumentation. It serves pharmaceutical companies, clinical laboratories, and research and medical institutions. Luminex Corporation was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Luminex (LMNX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 62
Price to Sales 3.2
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -35%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Return On Total Capital 3.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Return On Equity 3.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.3%
EBITDA Margin 14.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Operating Margin 7.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Net Profit Margin 5.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Effective Tax Rate 30%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

LMNX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LMNX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $271 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Luminex. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Luminex. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LMNX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LMNX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Luminex, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Luminex.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LMNX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LMNX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Luminex.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Luminex. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LMNX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LMNX are equal to 45.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Luminex operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LMNX is equal to 15.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $404 million for Luminex - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.169 million for Luminex is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Luminex at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Luminex Corp. : July 24, 2017   [Jul-24-17 05:04PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Luminex Corp. : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 03:23PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Luminex Corp. : June 19, 2017   [Jun-19-17 03:39PM  Capital Cube]
Stock chart of LMNX Financial statements of LMNX Annual reports of LMNX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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