Intrinsic value of Landmark Infrastructure Partners - LMRK

Previous Close

$18.05

  Intrinsic Value

$2.61

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

Previous close

$18.05

 
Intrinsic value

$2.61

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as LMRK.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LMRK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  23.53
  40.00
  36.50
  33.35
  30.52
  27.96
  25.67
  23.60
  21.74
  20.07
  18.56
  17.20
  15.98
  14.89
  13.90
  13.01
  12.21
  11.49
  10.84
  10.25
  9.73
  9.26
  8.83
  8.45
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.04
  6.83
  6.65
Revenue, $m
  42
  59
  80
  107
  140
  179
  225
  278
  338
  406
  481
  564
  654
  751
  856
  967
  1,085
  1,210
  1,341
  1,478
  1,622
  1,772
  1,929
  2,092
  2,261
  2,438
  2,621
  2,811
  3,009
  3,214
  3,428
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  38
  52
  69
  90
  115
  144
  179
  217
  261
  309
  363
  421
  483
  550
  622
  698
  778
  862
  951
  1,043
  1,140
  1,240
  1,345
  1,454
  1,567
  1,685
  1,807
  1,935
  2,067
  2,204
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  21
  38
  52
  69
  90
  115
  144
  179
  217
  261
  309
  363
  421
  483
  550
  622
  698
  778
  862
  951
  1,043
  1,140
  1,240
  1,345
  1,454
  1,567
  1,685
  1,807
  1,935
  2,067
  2,204
Operating income, $m
  21
  21
  29
  38
  50
  64
  80
  99
  121
  145
  172
  201
  234
  268
  306
  345
  387
  432
  479
  528
  579
  633
  689
  747
  807
  870
  936
  1,004
  1,074
  1,148
  1,224
EBITDA, $m
  32
  45
  62
  82
  107
  137
  172
  213
  259
  311
  369
  432
  501
  576
  656
  741
  832
  927
  1,028
  1,133
  1,244
  1,359
  1,479
  1,603
  1,733
  1,868
  2,009
  2,155
  2,306
  2,464
  2,628
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  12
  18
  25
  33
  43
  56
  70
  87
  106
  127
  151
  177
  206
  237
  270
  305
  342
  382
  423
  467
  512
  559
  609
  660
  714
  770
  828
  888
  950
  1,015
Earnings before tax, $m
  10
  9
  11
  14
  17
  20
  25
  29
  34
  39
  44
  50
  56
  62
  69
  76
  83
  90
  97
  105
  113
  121
  129
  138
  147
  156
  166
  176
  186
  197
  209
Tax expense, $m
  0
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
Net income, $m
  10
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  28
  32
  37
  41
  46
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  107
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  152

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  603
  840
  1,147
  1,529
  1,996
  2,554
  3,209
  3,966
  4,829
  5,798
  6,874
  8,056
  9,344
  10,735
  12,226
  13,817
  15,503
  17,284
  19,157
  21,121
  23,176
  25,321
  27,556
  29,884
  32,305
  34,822
  37,438
  40,157
  42,982
  45,918
  48,971
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  600
  840
  1,147
  1,529
  1,996
  2,554
  3,209
  3,966
  4,829
  5,798
  6,874
  8,056
  9,344
  10,735
  12,226
  13,817
  15,503
  17,284
  19,157
  21,121
  23,176
  25,321
  27,556
  29,884
  32,305
  34,822
  37,438
  40,157
  42,982
  45,918
  48,971
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
Average production assets, $m
  516
  722
  986
  1,315
  1,716
  2,196
  2,760
  3,411
  4,153
  4,986
  5,911
  6,928
  8,036
  9,232
  10,515
  11,883
  13,333
  14,864
  16,475
  18,164
  19,932
  21,776
  23,699
  25,701
  27,783
  29,948
  32,198
  34,536
  36,965
  39,491
  42,116
Working capital, $m
  0
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -20
  -24
  -29
  -34
  -40
  -46
  -53
  -61
  -69
  -77
  -86
  -95
  -105
  -115
  -126
  -137
  -149
  -161
  -173
  -186
  -200
  -214
  -228
  -243
Total debt, $m
  337
  480
  664
  892
  1,171
  1,505
  1,897
  2,350
  2,866
  3,445
  4,088
  4,796
  5,566
  6,397
  7,289
  8,240
  9,249
  10,314
  11,434
  12,608
  13,837
  15,120
  16,457
  17,849
  19,296
  20,802
  22,366
  23,992
  25,681
  27,437
  29,263
Total liabilities, $m
  359
  502
  686
  914
  1,193
  1,527
  1,919
  2,372
  2,888
  3,467
  4,110
  4,818
  5,588
  6,419
  7,311
  8,262
  9,271
  10,336
  11,456
  12,630
  13,859
  15,142
  16,479
  17,871
  19,318
  20,824
  22,388
  24,014
  25,703
  27,459
  29,285
Total equity, $m
  244
  338
  461
  615
  802
  1,027
  1,290
  1,594
  1,941
  2,331
  2,763
  3,239
  3,756
  4,315
  4,915
  5,554
  6,232
  6,948
  7,701
  8,491
  9,317
  10,179
  11,078
  12,013
  12,987
  13,999
  15,050
  16,143
  17,279
  18,459
  19,686
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  603
  840
  1,147
  1,529
  1,995
  2,554
  3,209
  3,966
  4,829
  5,798
  6,873
  8,057
  9,344
  10,734
  12,226
  13,816
  15,503
  17,284
  19,157
  21,121
  23,176
  25,321
  27,557
  29,884
  32,305
  34,823
  37,438
  40,157
  42,982
  45,918
  48,971
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.381
  1.420
  1.440
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.470
  1.470
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  10
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  28
  32
  37
  41
  46
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  107
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  152
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  11
  24
  33
  44
  57
  73
  92
  114
  138
  166
  197
  231
  268
  308
  350
  396
  444
  495
  549
  605
  664
  726
  790
  857
  926
  998
  1,073
  1,151
  1,232
  1,316
  1,404
Funds from operations, $m
  20
  30
  41
  54
  70
  88
  110
  135
  163
  195
  229
  267
  309
  353
  401
  451
  505
  561
  620
  682
  747
  814
  884
  957
  1,033
  1,112
  1,194
  1,280
  1,368
  1,460
  1,556
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
Cash from operations, $m
  21
  31
  42
  56
  72
  91
  113
  139
  167
  199
  235
  273
  315
  360
  408
  459
  513
  570
  629
  692
  757
  825
  895
  969
  1,045
  1,125
  1,207
  1,293
  1,382
  1,475
  1,571
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -17
  -24
  -33
  -44
  -57
  -73
  -92
  -114
  -138
  -166
  -197
  -231
  -268
  -308
  -350
  -396
  -444
  -495
  -549
  -605
  -664
  -726
  -790
  -857
  -926
  -998
  -1,073
  -1,151
  -1,232
  -1,316
New CAPEX, $m
  -149
  -206
  -264
  -329
  -401
  -480
  -564
  -651
  -742
  -833
  -925
  -1,017
  -1,107
  -1,196
  -1,283
  -1,368
  -1,450
  -1,531
  -1,611
  -1,689
  -1,767
  -1,845
  -1,923
  -2,002
  -2,082
  -2,165
  -2,250
  -2,338
  -2,430
  -2,525
  -2,626
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -156
  -223
  -288
  -362
  -445
  -537
  -637
  -743
  -856
  -971
  -1,091
  -1,214
  -1,338
  -1,464
  -1,591
  -1,718
  -1,846
  -1,975
  -2,106
  -2,238
  -2,372
  -2,509
  -2,649
  -2,792
  -2,939
  -3,091
  -3,248
  -3,411
  -3,581
  -3,757
  -3,942
Free cash flow, $m
  -135
  -192
  -245
  -306
  -373
  -446
  -524
  -605
  -688
  -772
  -857
  -941
  -1,023
  -1,104
  -1,182
  -1,259
  -1,333
  -1,406
  -1,477
  -1,547
  -1,616
  -1,684
  -1,753
  -1,823
  -1,894
  -1,966
  -2,041
  -2,118
  -2,199
  -2,283
  -2,371
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  31
  143
  183
  229
  279
  334
  392
  453
  516
  579
  643
  707
  770
  832
  892
  951
  1,009
  1,065
  1,120
  1,175
  1,229
  1,283
  1,337
  1,392
  1,448
  1,505
  1,564
  1,626
  1,689
  1,756
  1,826
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  124
  90
  115
  144
  175
  209
  246
  283
  322
  361
  400
  439
  477
  514
  549
  584
  618
  650
  682
  713
  744
  774
  804
  835
  866
  898
  931
  964
  1,000
  1,036
  1,075
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  160
  233
  298
  373
  454
  543
  638
  736
  838
  940
  1,043
  1,146
  1,247
  1,346
  1,441
  1,535
  1,627
  1,715
  1,802
  1,888
  1,973
  2,057
  2,141
  2,227
  2,314
  2,403
  2,495
  2,590
  2,689
  2,792
  2,901
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  25
  42
  53
  66
  81
  97
  114
  131
  150
  168
  187
  205
  224
  241
  259
  276
  293
  309
  325
  341
  357
  372
  388
  404
  420
  437
  454
  472
  490
  510
  530
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -87
  -97
  -123
  -154
  -188
  -224
  -263
  -304
  -347
  -390
  -433
  -475
  -518
  -559
  -600
  -639
  -678
  -716
  -753
  -790
  -826
  -862
  -899
  -936
  -973
  -1,012
  -1,052
  -1,093
  -1,136
  -1,180
  -1,227
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -52
  -70
  -87
  -107
  -127
  -150
  -173
  -197
  -221
  -246
  -270
  -294
  -318
  -341
  -363
  -385
  -407
  -428
  -449
  -469
  -490
  -511
  -532
  -553
  -575
  -597
  -621
  -645
  -671
  -697
Discount rate, %
 
  9.90
  10.40
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.64
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.13
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.83
  25.02
  26.27
  27.58
  28.96
  30.41
  31.93
  33.52
  35.20
  36.96
  38.81
  40.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -47
  -57
  -64
  -69
  -72
  -73
  -72
  -69
  -65
  -59
  -52
  -45
  -38
  -31
  -25
  -19
  -15
  -11
  -8
  -5
  -4
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  82.2
  68.6
  58.1
  49.9
  43.3
  38.1
  33.8
  30.2
  27.3
  24.8
  22.7
  21.0
  19.4
  18.1
  16.9
  15.9
  15.0
  14.2
  13.5
  12.8
  12.2
  11.7
  11.2
  10.8
  10.3
  10.0
  9.6
  9.3
  9.0
  8.7

Landmark Infrastructure Partners LP is a master limited partnership formed to acquire, own and manage a portfolio of real property interests that it leases to companies in the wireless communication, outdoor advertising and renewable power generation industries. The Company operates through three segments. The Wireless Communication segment consists of leasing real property interests and financing to companies in the wireless communication industry in the United States. The Outdoor Advertising segment consists of leasing real property interests to companies in the outdoor advertising industry in the United States. The Renewable Power Generation segment consists of leasing real property interests and financing to companies in the renewable power industry in the United States. The Company's real property interests consist of a portfolio of long term and perpetual easements, tenant lease assignments and fee simple properties located primarily in the United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Landmark Infrastructure Partners (LMRK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 40.8
Price to Sales 9.7
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 23.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 10.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 38.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 138.1%
Total Debt to Equity 138.1%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 1.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Return On Equity 5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 100%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 98.7%
EBITDA Margin 78.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.2%
Operating Margin 50%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 23.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Net Profit Margin 23.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 240%

LMRK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LMRK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $42 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Landmark Infrastructure Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Landmark Infrastructure Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LMRK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 40% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.9%, whose default value for LMRK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Landmark Infrastructure Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Landmark Infrastructure Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LMRK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 64.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LMRK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for Landmark Infrastructure Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Landmark Infrastructure Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LMRK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LMRK are equal to 1228.6%.

Life of production assets of 46.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Landmark Infrastructure Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LMRK is equal to -7.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $244 million for Landmark Infrastructure Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.364 million for Landmark Infrastructure Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Landmark Infrastructure Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Should You Buy Landmark Infrastructure Partners LP (LMRK)?   [Nov-20-17 04:35PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Landmark Infrastructure posts 3Q profit   [09:40AM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Buy Landmark Infrastructure Partners LP (LMRK)?   [Sep-15-17 09:19PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Landmark Infrastructure posts 2Q profit   [Aug-04-17 12:32AM  Associated Press]
▶ Landmark Infrastructure posts 1Q profit   [May-04-17 08:58AM  Associated Press]
▶ A Real Estate MLP Tries a New Structure   [Apr-21-17 03:17PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Landmark Infrastructure posts 4Q profit   [10:23AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of LMRK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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