Intrinsic value of Snyders-Lance - LNCE

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$35.82

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LNCE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  27.36
  2.20
  2.48
  2.73
  2.96
  3.16
  3.35
  3.51
  3.66
  3.79
  3.92
  4.02
  4.12
  4.21
  4.29
  4.36
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
Revenue, $m
  2,109
  1,692
  1,734
  1,782
  1,835
  1,893
  1,956
  2,025
  2,099
  2,178
  2,264
  2,355
  2,452
  2,555
  2,664
  2,781
  2,904
  3,034
  3,171
  3,317
  3,470
  3,631
  3,802
  3,982
  4,171
  4,370
  4,580
  4,800
  5,033
  5,277
  5,534
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,581
  1,619
  1,662
  1,709
  1,762
  1,819
  1,881
  1,948
  2,020
  2,097
  2,125
  2,213
  2,306
  2,405
  2,509
  2,620
  2,738
  2,862
  2,993
  3,131
  3,277
  3,431
  3,593
  3,764
  3,944
  4,133
  4,332
  4,542
  4,762
  4,994
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,009
  1,581
  1,619
  1,662
  1,709
  1,762
  1,819
  1,881
  1,948
  2,020
  2,097
  2,125
  2,213
  2,306
  2,405
  2,509
  2,620
  2,738
  2,862
  2,993
  3,131
  3,277
  3,431
  3,593
  3,764
  3,944
  4,133
  4,332
  4,542
  4,762
  4,994
Operating income, $m
  100
  111
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  230
  239
  249
  260
  271
  283
  296
  309
  324
  338
  354
  371
  388
  407
  426
  447
  468
  491
  515
  540
EBITDA, $m
  199
  211
  216
  222
  228
  236
  243
  252
  261
  271
  282
  293
  305
  318
  332
  346
  361
  378
  395
  413
  432
  452
  473
  496
  519
  544
  570
  597
  626
  657
  689
Interest expense (income), $m
  31
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  68
Earnings before tax, $m
  67
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  208
  216
  224
  233
  243
  253
  264
  276
  288
  300
  314
  328
  343
  359
  375
  393
  411
  430
  451
  472
Tax expense, $m
  25
  27
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  39
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
Net income, $m
  15
  72
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  107
  151
  157
  164
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
  300
  314
  329
  345

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  35
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,834
  1,810
  1,855
  1,906
  1,962
  2,024
  2,092
  2,165
  2,245
  2,330
  2,421
  2,518
  2,622
  2,733
  2,850
  2,974
  3,105
  3,245
  3,392
  3,547
  3,711
  3,884
  4,066
  4,258
  4,461
  4,674
  4,898
  5,134
  5,382
  5,644
  5,918
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,799
  1,810
  1,855
  1,906
  1,962
  2,024
  2,092
  2,165
  2,245
  2,330
  2,421
  2,518
  2,622
  2,733
  2,850
  2,974
  3,105
  3,245
  3,392
  3,547
  3,711
  3,884
  4,066
  4,258
  4,461
  4,674
  4,898
  5,134
  5,382
  5,644
  5,918
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.555
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
Average production assets, $m
  1,403
  970
  994
  1,021
  1,051
  1,084
  1,121
  1,160
  1,203
  1,248
  1,297
  1,349
  1,405
  1,464
  1,527
  1,593
  1,664
  1,738
  1,817
  1,900
  1,988
  2,081
  2,178
  2,281
  2,390
  2,504
  2,624
  2,751
  2,884
  3,024
  3,171
Working capital, $m
  296
  151
  154
  159
  163
  168
  174
  180
  187
  194
  201
  210
  218
  227
  237
  247
  258
  270
  282
  295
  309
  323
  338
  354
  371
  389
  408
  427
  448
  470
  492
Total debt, $m
  1,295
  387
  406
  426
  449
  474
  501
  531
  563
  597
  634
  673
  715
  759
  806
  856
  910
  966
  1,025
  1,087
  1,154
  1,223
  1,297
  1,374
  1,456
  1,542
  1,632
  1,727
  1,827
  1,932
  2,043
Total liabilities, $m
  1,977
  729
  748
  768
  791
  816
  843
  873
  905
  939
  976
  1,015
  1,057
  1,101
  1,148
  1,198
  1,252
  1,308
  1,367
  1,429
  1,496
  1,565
  1,639
  1,716
  1,798
  1,884
  1,974
  2,069
  2,169
  2,274
  2,385
Total equity, $m
  1,857
  1,081
  1,107
  1,138
  1,171
  1,208
  1,249
  1,293
  1,340
  1,391
  1,445
  1,503
  1,565
  1,631
  1,701
  1,775
  1,854
  1,937
  2,025
  2,118
  2,215
  2,319
  2,428
  2,542
  2,663
  2,790
  2,924
  3,065
  3,213
  3,369
  3,533
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,834
  1,810
  1,855
  1,906
  1,962
  2,024
  2,092
  2,166
  2,245
  2,330
  2,421
  2,518
  2,622
  2,732
  2,849
  2,973
  3,106
  3,245
  3,392
  3,547
  3,711
  3,884
  4,067
  4,258
  4,461
  4,674
  4,898
  5,134
  5,382
  5,643
  5,918
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.697
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.480
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  15
  72
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  107
  151
  157
  164
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
  300
  314
  329
  345
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  99
  99
  101
  102
  103
  105
  107
  108
  110
  112
  115
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
Funds from operations, $m
  322
  171
  175
  179
  184
  189
  194
  200
  207
  214
  221
  215
  223
  232
  242
  252
  263
  274
  286
  299
  313
  327
  342
  358
  374
  392
  410
  429
  450
  471
  494
Change in working capital, $m
  61
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Cash from operations, $m
  261
  148
  171
  175
  179
  184
  189
  194
  200
  207
  214
  207
  215
  223
  232
  242
  252
  263
  274
  286
  299
  312
  327
  342
  357
  374
  391
  410
  429
  449
  471
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
New CAPEX, $m
  -73
  -20
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,117
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -238
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -289
Free cash flow, $m
  -856
  84
  102
  101
  101
  101
  102
  102
  103
  105
  106
  94
  96
  98
  101
  104
  107
  110
  114
  118
  122
  126
  131
  136
  142
  147
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  916
  15
  18
  20
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  911
  15
  18
  20
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  54
  99
  120
  121
  124
  126
  129
  132
  135
  139
  143
  133
  138
  143
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  279
  292
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -769
  -23
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  106
  93
  91
  90
  89
  88
  88
  88
  88
  89
  75
  76
  77
  78
  80
  81
  83
  85
  88
  90
  93
  96
  99
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  123
  128
Discount rate, %
 
  5.00
  5.25
  5.51
  5.79
  6.08
  6.38
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.13
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  101
  84
  78
  72
  66
  61
  56
  51
  46
  42
  32
  28
  25
  22
  19
  17
  14
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Snyder’s-Lance, Inc. manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells snack food products in the United States. Its products include pretzels, sandwich crackers, kettle cooked chips, pretzel crackers, cookies, potato chips, tortilla chips, nuts, restaurant style crackers, and other salty snacks. The company sells its products under the Snyder’s of Hanover, Lance, Cape Cod, Snack Factory Pretzel Crisps, Late July, Tom’s, Archway, Jays, Stella D’oro, EatSmart Snacks, Krunchers! and O-Ke-Doke brands. It also purchases and sells cake products and meat snacks under its brands; and sells partner brand products. Snyder’s-Lance, Inc. sells its products through direct-store-delivery network, third-party distributors, and directly to grocery/mass merchandisers, club stores, discount stores, convenience stores, and food service establishments, as well as various other retail customers, such as drug stores, schools, military and government facilities, recreational facilities, offices, and other independent retailers. The company was formerly known as Lance, Inc. and changed its name to Snyder’s-Lance, Inc. in December 2010. Snyder’s-Lance, Inc. was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Snyders-Lance (LNCE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 229.8
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 27.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 43.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 67.1%
Total Debt to Equity 69.7%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Total Capital 0.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Return On Equity 1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.6%
EBITDA Margin 9.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Operating Margin 4.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Net Profit Margin 0.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Effective Tax Rate 37.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.5%
Payout Ratio 386.7%

LNCE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LNCE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1656 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Snyders-Lance. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Snyders-Lance. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LNCE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5%, whose default value for LNCE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Snyders-Lance, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Snyders-Lance.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LNCE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LNCE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Snyders-Lance.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Snyders-Lance. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LNCE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LNCE are equal to 57.3%.

Life of production assets of 21.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Snyders-Lance operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LNCE is equal to 8.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1088 million for Snyders-Lance - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 96.241 million for Snyders-Lance is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Snyders-Lance at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Top Defensive Consumer Stocks for 2017   [May-24-17 06:00AM  Investopedia]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Snyders-Lance, Inc. : May 16, 2017   [May-16-17 12:54PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Snyder's posts 1Q profit   [07:28AM  Associated Press]
▶ Snyders-Lance CEO retires suddenly, interim leader named   [03:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [12:27PM  Briefing.com]
▶ [$$] Snyder's-Lance Swaps CEOs, Warns of Weakness   [08:13AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Three things learned from Snyders-Lance 2016 earnings   [12:38PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Snyder's reports 4Q loss   [07:32AM  Associated Press]
▶ Snyders-Lance Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-10-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Are These 3 Big Brand Stocks Wildly Overvalued?   [Jan-30-17 06:28AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Is Snyder S Lance Inc (LNCE) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-12-16 08:22PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of LNCE Financial statements of LNCE Annual reports of LNCE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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