Intrinsic value of Lantheus Holdings - LNTH

Previous Close

$16.10

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$16.10

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LNTH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.07
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  302
  322
  343
  364
  387
  410
  434
  460
  486
  514
  543
  573
  605
  638
  672
  708
  746
  785
  827
  870
  916
  963
  1,013
  1,065
  1,120
  1,177
  1,238
  1,301
  1,367
  1,436
  1,509
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  292
  311
  330
  350
  371
  393
  416
  440
  465
  491
  517
  545
  575
  606
  639
  673
  708
  746
  785
  826
  868
  913
  960
  1,010
  1,062
  1,116
  1,173
  1,233
  1,295
  1,361
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  247
  292
  311
  330
  350
  371
  393
  416
  440
  465
  491
  517
  545
  575
  606
  639
  673
  708
  746
  785
  826
  868
  913
  960
  1,010
  1,062
  1,116
  1,173
  1,233
  1,295
  1,361
Operating income, $m
  55
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
EBITDA, $m
  73
  44
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
  124
  131
  137
  145
  152
  160
  168
  177
  185
  195
  205
Interest expense (income), $m
  24
  21
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
Earnings before tax, $m
  28
  9
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
  72
Tax expense, $m
  1
  2
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
Net income, $m
  27
  7
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  256
  273
  290
  309
  328
  348
  368
  390
  412
  436
  460
  486
  512
  540
  570
  600
  632
  666
  701
  737
  776
  816
  858
  903
  949
  998
  1,049
  1,102
  1,158
  1,217
  1,279
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  205
  273
  290
  309
  328
  348
  368
  390
  412
  436
  460
  486
  512
  540
  570
  600
  632
  666
  701
  737
  776
  816
  858
  903
  949
  998
  1,049
  1,102
  1,158
  1,217
  1,279
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.473
  1.179
  1.183
  1.178
  1.180
  1.178
  1.179
  1.179
  1.180
  1.179
  1.180
  1.179
  1.182
  1.181
  1.179
  1.180
  1.180
  1.179
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.181
  1.179
  1.180
  1.179
  1.180
  1.181
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
Average production assets, $m
  113
  120
  128
  136
  145
  153
  162
  172
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
  238
  251
  265
  279
  294
  309
  325
  342
  360
  379
  398
  419
  440
  463
  486
  511
  537
  565
Working capital, $m
  67
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  60
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
Total debt, $m
  278
  161
  176
  193
  210
  228
  246
  266
  286
  307
  329
  352
  376
  401
  428
  455
  484
  514
  546
  579
  613
  650
  688
  727
  769
  813
  859
  907
  958
  1,011
  1,066
Total liabilities, $m
  362
  246
  261
  278
  295
  313
  331
  351
  371
  392
  414
  437
  461
  486
  513
  540
  569
  599
  631
  664
  698
  735
  773
  812
  854
  898
  944
  992
  1,043
  1,096
  1,151
Total equity, $m
  -107
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  255
  273
  290
  309
  328
  348
  368
  390
  412
  436
  460
  486
  512
  540
  570
  600
  632
  666
  701
  738
  776
  817
  859
  902
  949
  998
  1,049
  1,102
  1,159
  1,218
  1,279
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -2.598
  5.880
  6.070
  6.250
  6.410
  6.550
  6.690
  6.820
  6.940
  7.050
  7.150
  7.250
  7.340
  7.430
  7.510
  7.580
  7.660
  7.720
  7.790
  7.850
  7.900
  7.960
  8.010
  8.060
  8.100
  8.150
  8.190
  8.230
  8.270
  8.300
  8.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.771
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  27
  7
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
Funds from operations, $m
  53
  20
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  50
  19
  28
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
Cash from investing activities, $m
  3
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
Free cash flow, $m
  53
  0
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -79
  -117
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  51
  128
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -30
  11
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  23
  10
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  78
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -78
  -134
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -124
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
Discount rate, %
 
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.85
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.48
  21.50
  22.58
  23.71
  24.89
  26.14
  27.44
  28.81
  30.25
  31.77
  33.36
  35.02
  36.77
  38.61
  40.54
  42.57
  44.70
  46.93
  49.28
  51.75
  54.33
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -109
  17
  15
  13
  12
  10
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
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Lantheus Holdings, Inc. develops, manufactures, and commercializes diagnostic medical imaging agents and products for the diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular and other diseases worldwide. Its principal products include DEFINITY, an ultrasound contrast imaging agent for use in patients with suboptimal echocardiograms; TechneLite, a self-contained system or generator of technetium used in nuclear medicine procedures; and Xenon, a radiopharmaceutical gas used to assess pulmonary function, and imaging of cerebral blood flow. The company also offers injectable technetium-labeled imaging agents, including Cardiolite, used in myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) procedures; and Neurolite, which is used to identify the area in the brain where blood flow has been blocked or reduced due to stroke. In addition, it provides injectable radiopharmaceutical imaging agents, such as Thallium Tl 201 that is used in MPI studies to detect coronary artery disease; Gallium Ga 67, which is used to detect various infections and cancerous tumors, including lymphoma; and Quadramet, a therapeutic product, which is used to treat severe bone pain associated with various kinds of cancer. Further, the company offers Gludef an injectable fluorine-18-radiolabeled imaging agent used to identify and characterize tumors in patients undergoing oncologic diagnostic procedures; and Ablavar, an injectable gadolinium-based contrast agent, which is used to diagnose narrowing or blockage of iliac arteries in known or suspected peripheral vascular disease. Additionally, it is developing flurpiridaz F 18 and 18F LMI 1195 that are under clinical development; and LMI 1174, which is in pre-clinical development. The company sells its products to hospitals, clinics, group practices, integrated delivery networks, group purchasing organizations, and radiopharmacies, as well as wholesalers. Lantheus Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in North Billerica, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lantheus Holdings (LNTH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.9
Price to Sales 2
Price to Book -5.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -46.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 13
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -256.1%
Total Debt to Equity -259.8%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 20.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.5%
Return On Total Capital 15.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Return On Equity -18.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.2%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 45.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.6%
EBITDA Margin 23.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Operating Margin 18.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Net Profit Margin 8.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Effective Tax Rate 3.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -40.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

LNTH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LNTH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $302 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lantheus Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Lantheus Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LNTH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.2%, whose default value for LNTH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lantheus Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lantheus Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LNTH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LNTH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.6% for Lantheus Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lantheus Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LNTH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LNTH are equal to 37.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lantheus Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LNTH is equal to 6.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-107 million for Lantheus Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37.425 million for Lantheus Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lantheus Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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Stock chart of LNTH Financial statements of LNTH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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