Intrinsic value of LogMeIn - LOGM

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$109.50

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$109.50

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LOGM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  23.53
  15.80
  14.72
  13.75
  12.87
  12.09
  11.38
  10.74
  10.17
  9.65
  9.18
  8.77
  8.39
  8.05
  7.75
  7.47
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
Revenue, $m
  336
  389
  446
  508
  573
  642
  715
  792
  873
  957
  1,045
  1,137
  1,232
  1,331
  1,434
  1,541
  1,653
  1,768
  1,889
  2,014
  2,144
  2,279
  2,420
  2,567
  2,719
  2,879
  3,045
  3,219
  3,400
  3,589
  3,787
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  364
  416
  471
  530
  593
  659
  728
  801
  877
  956
  1,027
  1,113
  1,203
  1,296
  1,393
  1,493
  1,598
  1,707
  1,820
  1,937
  2,059
  2,187
  2,319
  2,458
  2,602
  2,752
  2,909
  3,072
  3,243
  3,422
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  332
  364
  416
  471
  530
  593
  659
  728
  801
  877
  956
  1,027
  1,113
  1,203
  1,296
  1,393
  1,493
  1,598
  1,707
  1,820
  1,937
  2,059
  2,187
  2,319
  2,458
  2,602
  2,752
  2,909
  3,072
  3,243
  3,422
Operating income, $m
  4
  25
  31
  37
  43
  50
  57
  64
  72
  80
  88
  109
  119
  128
  138
  148
  159
  170
  182
  194
  206
  219
  233
  247
  262
  277
  293
  310
  327
  346
  365
EBITDA, $m
  26
  48
  55
  62
  70
  79
  88
  97
  107
  117
  128
  139
  151
  163
  175
  189
  202
  216
  231
  246
  262
  279
  296
  314
  333
  352
  372
  394
  416
  439
  463
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  1
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
Earnings before tax, $m
  3
  24
  29
  34
  39
  44
  49
  55
  61
  67
  74
  93
  100
  107
  115
  123
  131
  140
  149
  158
  167
  177
  188
  199
  210
  222
  234
  247
  260
  275
  289
Tax expense, $m
  0
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
Net income, $m
  3
  18
  21
  25
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  49
  54
  68
  73
  78
  84
  90
  96
  102
  108
  115
  122
  130
  137
  145
  153
  162
  171
  180
  190
  200
  211

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  196
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  443
  286
  328
  373
  421
  472
  526
  583
  642
  704
  768
  836
  906
  979
  1,054
  1,133
  1,215
  1,300
  1,389
  1,481
  1,576
  1,676
  1,779
  1,887
  2,000
  2,117
  2,239
  2,367
  2,500
  2,639
  2,784
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  247
  286
  328
  373
  421
  472
  526
  583
  642
  704
  768
  836
  906
  979
  1,054
  1,133
  1,215
  1,300
  1,389
  1,481
  1,576
  1,676
  1,779
  1,887
  2,000
  2,117
  2,239
  2,367
  2,500
  2,639
  2,784
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.360
  1.360
  1.360
  1.362
  1.361
  1.360
  1.359
  1.358
  1.360
  1.359
  1.361
  1.360
  1.360
  1.360
  1.361
  1.360
  1.360
  1.360
  1.360
  1.360
  1.360
  1.360
  1.360
  1.360
  1.360
  1.360
  1.360
  1.360
  1.360
  1.360
  1.360
Average production assets, $m
  91
  91
  104
  119
  134
  150
  167
  185
  204
  224
  245
  266
  288
  311
  336
  361
  387
  414
  442
  471
  502
  533
  566
  601
  636
  674
  713
  753
  796
  840
  886
Working capital, $m
  21
  -203
  -233
  -265
  -299
  -335
  -373
  -413
  -455
  -499
  -544
  -592
  -642
  -693
  -747
  -803
  -861
  -921
  -984
  -1,049
  -1,117
  -1,187
  -1,261
  -1,337
  -1,417
  -1,500
  -1,587
  -1,677
  -1,771
  -1,870
  -1,973
Total debt, $m
  30
  40
  78
  119
  162
  208
  256
  307
  361
  416
  474
  535
  598
  664
  732
  803
  877
  953
  1,033
  1,116
  1,202
  1,291
  1,384
  1,481
  1,583
  1,688
  1,798
  1,913
  2,033
  2,158
  2,289
Total liabilities, $m
  247
  257
  295
  336
  379
  425
  473
  524
  578
  633
  691
  752
  815
  881
  949
  1,020
  1,094
  1,170
  1,250
  1,333
  1,419
  1,508
  1,601
  1,698
  1,800
  1,905
  2,015
  2,130
  2,250
  2,375
  2,506
Total equity, $m
  196
  29
  33
  37
  42
  47
  53
  58
  64
  70
  77
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
  122
  130
  139
  148
  158
  168
  178
  189
  200
  212
  224
  237
  250
  264
  278
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  443
  286
  328
  373
  421
  472
  526
  582
  642
  703
  768
  836
  906
  979
  1,054
  1,133
  1,216
  1,300
  1,389
  1,481
  1,577
  1,676
  1,779
  1,887
  2,000
  2,117
  2,239
  2,367
  2,500
  2,639
  2,784
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.153
  1.420
  2.390
  3.190
  3.850
  4.410
  4.870
  5.270
  5.620
  5.920
  6.180
  6.400
  6.600
  6.780
  6.940
  7.090
  7.210
  7.330
  7.440
  7.530
  7.620
  7.710
  7.780
  7.850
  7.910
  7.970
  8.030
  8.080
  8.130
  8.180
  8.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  18
  21
  25
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  49
  54
  68
  73
  78
  84
  90
  96
  102
  108
  115
  122
  130
  137
  145
  153
  162
  171
  180
  190
  200
  211
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  22
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
Funds from operations, $m
  130
  40
  45
  50
  55
  61
  67
  73
  79
  86
  93
  97
  105
  113
  121
  130
  139
  148
  158
  168
  178
  189
  200
  212
  224
  237
  250
  264
  279
  294
  310
Change in working capital, $m
  38
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
Cash from operations, $m
  92
  52
  75
  82
  89
  97
  105
  113
  121
  130
  139
  145
  155
  165
  175
  186
  197
  208
  220
  233
  246
  259
  273
  288
  304
  320
  337
  354
  373
  392
  413
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
Cash from investing activities, $m
  7
  -22
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
Free cash flow, $m
  99
  31
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  96
  103
  109
  116
  123
  131
  138
  146
  154
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  212
  223
  235
  247
  260
  273
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -30
  10
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -54
  10
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  43
  41
  89
  97
  104
  112
  120
  127
  135
  143
  152
  157
  166
  175
  184
  194
  204
  215
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  288
  302
  317
  333
  349
  367
  385
  404
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  12
  -29
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  196
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  209
  85
  92
  99
  107
  114
  122
  129
  137
  145
  150
  159
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
  217
  228
  239
  251
  264
  277
  291
  306
  321
  337
  353
  371
  389
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  200
  78
  80
  82
  83
  83
  82
  81
  79
  76
  71
  68
  64
  59
  55
  50
  45
  40
  35
  30
  26
  22
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

LogMeIn, Inc. provides cloud-based services for individuals and businesses to securely connect to their workplace, colleagues, and customers. Its services include join.me, join.me pro, and join.me enterprise that are browser-based online meeting and screen sharing services; Cubby Basic, Cubby Pro, and Cubby Enterprise that are cloud-based file syncing, storage, and sharing services; and LogMeIn Pro, a remote access service. The company also provides support services, including LogMeIn Rescue, Rescue Lens, and LogMeIn Rescue+Mobile, which are Web-based remote support and customer care services offering remote support through the Internet; and BoldChat, a Web-based live chat service that helps customer service staff to directly engage and provide assistance to visitors to their organizationĀ’s Website. In addition, it offers IT management services, such as LogMeIn Central, a Web-based management console; Meldium, a password and identity management product to manage, store, and share login credentials; and AppGuru, an application management product, as well as connected products comprising Xively, a platform, which provides the infrastructure services to help businesses. Further, the company provides RemotelyAnywhere, a LAN-based systems administration product used to manage personal computers and servers from within the IT system of an enterprise; LogMeIn Backup, a service that subscribers install on two or more computers to create a backup network; LogMeIn Hamachi, a hosted virtual private network service; and LogMeIn for iOS services. It serves SMBs, IT service providers, mobile carriers, customer service centers, original equipment manufacturers, enterprise customers, and consumers. The company was formerly known as 3am Labs, Inc. and changed its name to LogMeIn, Inc. in March 2006. LogMeIn, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  LogMeIn (LOGM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 932.6
Price to Sales 8.3
Price to Book 14.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 30.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 36.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 23.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -5.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 15.3%
Total Debt to Equity 15.3%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Return On Total Capital 1.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Equity 1.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 86.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 86.8%
EBITDA Margin 7.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Operating Margin 1.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Net Profit Margin 0.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Payout Ratio 833.3%

LOGM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LOGM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $336 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by LogMeIn. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of LogMeIn. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LOGM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LOGM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of LogMeIn, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of LogMeIn.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LOGM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LOGM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for LogMeIn.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for LogMeIn. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LOGM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LOGM are equal to 23.4%.

Life of production assets of 9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in LogMeIn operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LOGM is equal to -52.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $196 million for LogMeIn - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.013 million for LogMeIn is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of LogMeIn at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.7 billion.


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Stock chart of LOGM Financial statements of LOGM Annual reports of LOGM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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