Intrinsic value of Dorian LPG - LPG

Previous Close

$8.10

  Intrinsic Value

$4.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-45%

Previous close

$8.10

 
Intrinsic value

$4.43

 
Up/down potential

-45%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of LPG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -42.21
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  167
  170
  174
  179
  184
  189
  195
  202
  209
  217
  225
  234
  244
  254
  265
  276
  288
  301
  315
  329
  344
  360
  377
  394
  413
  433
  454
  475
  498
  522
  548
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  78
  79
  81
  84
  86
  89
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
  238
  249
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  153
  78
  79
  81
  84
  86
  89
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
  238
  249
Operating income, $m
  14
  93
  95
  97
  100
  103
  107
  110
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  272
  285
  299
EBITDA, $m
  79
  159
  163
  167
  172
  177
  182
  189
  195
  203
  210
  219
  228
  237
  247
  258
  269
  281
  294
  307
  321
  336
  352
  368
  386
  404
  423
  444
  465
  488
  511
Interest expense (income), $m
  25
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  81
Earnings before tax, $m
  -1
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  125
  130
  136
  143
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  207
  217
Tax expense, $m
  0
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
Net income, $m
  -1
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,746
  1,756
  1,796
  1,843
  1,894
  1,952
  2,015
  2,084
  2,158
  2,238
  2,324
  2,416
  2,514
  2,618
  2,729
  2,847
  2,971
  3,104
  3,243
  3,391
  3,547
  3,711
  3,884
  4,067
  4,260
  4,462
  4,676
  4,901
  5,137
  5,386
  5,647
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,729
  1,756
  1,796
  1,843
  1,894
  1,952
  2,015
  2,084
  2,158
  2,238
  2,324
  2,416
  2,514
  2,618
  2,729
  2,847
  2,971
  3,104
  3,243
  3,391
  3,547
  3,711
  3,884
  4,067
  4,260
  4,462
  4,676
  4,901
  5,137
  5,386
  5,647
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
Average production assets, $m
  1,636
  1,668
  1,707
  1,750
  1,800
  1,854
  1,914
  1,979
  2,050
  2,126
  2,207
  2,295
  2,388
  2,487
  2,592
  2,704
  2,823
  2,948
  3,081
  3,221
  3,369
  3,525
  3,690
  3,863
  4,046
  4,239
  4,442
  4,655
  4,880
  5,116
  5,365
Working capital, $m
  -22
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
Total debt, $m
  750
  746
  763
  783
  806
  831
  859
  888
  921
  956
  993
  1,033
  1,076
  1,121
  1,170
  1,221
  1,276
  1,333
  1,394
  1,458
  1,526
  1,598
  1,674
  1,753
  1,837
  1,926
  2,019
  2,117
  2,220
  2,328
  2,442
Total liabilities, $m
  770
  766
  783
  803
  826
  851
  879
  908
  941
  976
  1,013
  1,053
  1,096
  1,141
  1,190
  1,241
  1,296
  1,353
  1,414
  1,478
  1,546
  1,618
  1,694
  1,773
  1,857
  1,946
  2,039
  2,137
  2,240
  2,348
  2,462
Total equity, $m
  976
  990
  1,013
  1,039
  1,068
  1,101
  1,136
  1,175
  1,217
  1,262
  1,311
  1,362
  1,418
  1,477
  1,539
  1,606
  1,676
  1,750
  1,829
  1,912
  2,000
  2,093
  2,191
  2,294
  2,402
  2,517
  2,637
  2,764
  2,897
  3,038
  3,185
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,746
  1,756
  1,796
  1,842
  1,894
  1,952
  2,015
  2,083
  2,158
  2,238
  2,324
  2,415
  2,514
  2,618
  2,729
  2,847
  2,972
  3,103
  3,243
  3,390
  3,546
  3,711
  3,885
  4,067
  4,259
  4,463
  4,676
  4,901
  5,137
  5,386
  5,647
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.768
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.555
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -1
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  161
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
  213
Funds from operations, $m
  59
  115
  118
  121
  125
  128
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  180
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  280
  293
  308
  322
  338
  354
  371
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  52
  115
  117
  120
  124
  127
  131
  136
  141
  146
  152
  157
  164
  171
  178
  185
  194
  202
  211
  221
  231
  242
  253
  265
  277
  290
  304
  319
  334
  350
  367
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -76
  -79
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -203
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -33
  -38
  -44
  -49
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -112
  -119
  -125
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -225
  -236
  -249
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -98
  -104
  -112
  -118
  -126
  -134
  -141
  -150
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -250
  -262
  -276
  -290
  -305
  -320
  -336
  -354
  -371
  -389
  -410
  -430
  -452
Free cash flow, $m
  50
  17
  13
  9
  5
  1
  -2
  -5
  -8
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -84
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -66
  13
  18
  20
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -79
  13
  18
  20
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -29
  30
  30
  29
  28
  26
  26
  25
  24
  23
  23
  23
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  10
  -14
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -148
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  15
  8
  3
  -2
  -6
  -10
  -14
  -18
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
Discount rate, %
 
  8.50
  8.93
  9.37
  9.84
  10.33
  10.85
  11.39
  11.96
  12.56
  13.19
  13.85
  14.54
  15.26
  16.03
  16.83
  17.67
  18.55
  19.48
  20.46
  21.48
  22.55
  23.68
  24.86
  26.11
  27.41
  28.78
  30.22
  31.73
  33.32
  34.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  14
  6
  2
  -1
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Dorian LPG Ltd. is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, is focused on owning and operating very large gas carrier (VLGCs) in the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) shipping industry. The Company is engaged in the transportation of LPG across the world through its ownership and operation of LPG tankers. As of March 31, 2016, the Company owned and operated a fleet of 22 VLGCs, including 19 84,000 cubic meter (cbm) ECO-design VLGCs (ECO VLGCs) and three 82,000 cbm VLGCs. The VLGCs in its fleet had an aggregate carrying capacity of approximately 1.8 million cbm at May 26, 2016. It provides in-house commercial and technical management services for all of its vessels. As of May 26, 2016, its VLGCs included Captain Nicholas ML; Captain John NP; Comet; Corsair; Corvette; Cougar; Concorde; Cobra; Continental; Commodore; Constellation; Cheyenne; Cratis; Chaparral; Commander, and Challenger. The Company's customers include global energy companies, commodity traders and importers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dorian LPG (LPG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -445.3
Price to Sales 2.7
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -42.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -99.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -59%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 70.1%
Total Debt to Equity 76.8%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Total Capital -0.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Equity -0.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 98.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 91%
EBITDA Margin 53.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.1%
Operating Margin 8.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.8%
Net Profit Margin -0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

LPG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LPG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $167 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dorian LPG. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Dorian LPG. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LPG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.5%, whose default value for LPG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dorian LPG, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dorian LPG.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LPG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 45.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LPG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Dorian LPG.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dorian LPG. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LPG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LPG are equal to 979.3%.

Life of production assets of 25.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dorian LPG operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LPG is equal to 16.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $976 million for Dorian LPG - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 55.105 million for Dorian LPG is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dorian LPG at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Dorian LPG reports 2Q loss   [Nov-06-17 05:37AM  Associated Press]
▶ Dorian LPG Ltd. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-03-17 07:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Dorian LPG reports 1Q loss   [Jul-31-17 11:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Dorian LPG Ltd. : June 30, 2017   [Jun-30-17 03:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Correction Is an Opportunity to Accumulate Dorian LPG   [Jun-28-17 02:05PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Dorian LPG Ltd. : June 20, 2017   [Jun-20-17 03:05PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Dorian LPG posts 4Q profit   [06:28AM  Associated Press]
▶ Dorian LPG Ltd. Announces Amendment To Debt Facility   [Jun-01-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Dorian LPG Ltd. : April 25, 2017   [Apr-25-17 03:39PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Dorian LPG misses 3Q profit forecasts   [06:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ Know the Most Explosive Stocks of 2017   [Jan-25-17 01:04PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ How Dorian LPG Ltd (LPG) Stocks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-12-16 08:35PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of LPG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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