Intrinsic value of Liberty Property Trust - LPT

Previous Close

$41.31

  Intrinsic Value

$5.07

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

  Value-price divergence*

-1%

Previous close

$41.31

 
Intrinsic value

$5.07

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-1%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as LPT.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LPT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.66
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  747
  762
  779
  799
  822
  847
  874
  904
  936
  971
  1,008
  1,048
  1,091
  1,136
  1,184
  1,235
  1,289
  1,347
  1,407
  1,471
  1,539
  1,610
  1,685
  1,765
  1,848
  1,936
  2,029
  2,126
  2,229
  2,337
  2,450
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  406
  415
  426
  438
  451
  466
  482
  499
  518
  537
  559
  581
  605
  631
  658
  687
  718
  750
  784
  820
  858
  898
  941
  985
  1,032
  1,081
  1,133
  1,188
  1,246
  1,306
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  127
  130
  134
  137
  140
  144
  147
  151
  155
  159
  163
  167
  171
  175
  180
  184
  189
  193
  198
  203
  208
  213
  219
  224
  230
  236
  242
  248
  254
  260
Total operating expenses, $m
  519
  533
  545
  560
  575
  591
  610
  629
  650
  673
  696
  722
  748
  776
  806
  838
  871
  907
  943
  982
  1,023
  1,066
  1,111
  1,160
  1,209
  1,262
  1,317
  1,375
  1,436
  1,500
  1,566
Operating income, $m
  228
  229
  234
  240
  247
  255
  264
  275
  286
  299
  312
  327
  343
  360
  378
  397
  418
  440
  464
  489
  515
  544
  574
  605
  639
  674
  712
  751
  793
  838
  884
EBITDA, $m
  436
  441
  451
  463
  476
  491
  508
  527
  547
  569
  593
  619
  647
  676
  708
  742
  778
  816
  856
  899
  945
  993
  1,044
  1,097
  1,154
  1,214
  1,278
  1,344
  1,415
  1,489
  1,568
Interest expense (income), $m
  143
  128
  130
  134
  138
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  272
  285
  300
  315
  331
  347
  365
  383
  403
  423
  445
Earnings before tax, $m
  346
  101
  103
  106
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
  173
  183
  193
  204
  217
  230
  243
  258
  274
  291
  308
  327
  347
  368
  391
  414
  439
Tax expense, $m
  2
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  112
  119
Net income, $m
  357
  74
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  158
  168
  178
  188
  200
  212
  225
  239
  253
  269
  285
  302
  321

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  44
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,993
  6,047
  6,186
  6,345
  6,524
  6,721
  6,938
  7,175
  7,431
  7,706
  8,002
  8,318
  8,656
  9,015
  9,397
  9,803
  10,232
  10,687
  11,168
  11,676
  12,213
  12,779
  13,376
  14,005
  14,668
  15,366
  16,101
  16,875
  17,690
  18,546
  19,447
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,949
  6,047
  6,186
  6,345
  6,524
  6,721
  6,938
  7,175
  7,431
  7,706
  8,002
  8,318
  8,656
  9,015
  9,397
  9,803
  10,232
  10,687
  11,168
  11,676
  12,213
  12,779
  13,376
  14,005
  14,668
  15,366
  16,101
  16,875
  17,690
  18,546
  19,447
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
Average production assets, $m
  5,563
  5,673
  5,804
  5,953
  6,121
  6,306
  6,510
  6,731
  6,971
  7,230
  7,507
  7,804
  8,121
  8,458
  8,817
  9,197
  9,600
  10,027
  10,478
  10,954
  11,458
  11,989
  12,549
  13,139
  13,761
  14,416
  15,106
  15,832
  16,596
  17,400
  18,245
Working capital, $m
  0
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -145
Total debt, $m
  2,557
  2,609
  2,679
  2,759
  2,848
  2,948
  3,057
  3,176
  3,305
  3,443
  3,592
  3,751
  3,921
  4,102
  4,294
  4,498
  4,714
  4,943
  5,184
  5,440
  5,710
  5,995
  6,295
  6,611
  6,945
  7,296
  7,666
  8,055
  8,465
  8,896
  9,349
Total liabilities, $m
  2,989
  3,042
  3,112
  3,192
  3,281
  3,381
  3,490
  3,609
  3,738
  3,876
  4,025
  4,184
  4,354
  4,535
  4,727
  4,931
  5,147
  5,376
  5,617
  5,873
  6,143
  6,428
  6,728
  7,044
  7,378
  7,729
  8,099
  8,488
  8,898
  9,329
  9,782
Total equity, $m
  3,003
  3,005
  3,075
  3,154
  3,242
  3,341
  3,448
  3,566
  3,693
  3,830
  3,977
  4,134
  4,302
  4,481
  4,670
  4,872
  5,085
  5,311
  5,550
  5,803
  6,070
  6,351
  6,648
  6,960
  7,290
  7,637
  8,002
  8,387
  8,792
  9,217
  9,665
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,992
  6,047
  6,187
  6,346
  6,523
  6,722
  6,938
  7,175
  7,431
  7,706
  8,002
  8,318
  8,656
  9,016
  9,397
  9,803
  10,232
  10,687
  11,167
  11,676
  12,213
  12,779
  13,376
  14,004
  14,668
  15,366
  16,101
  16,875
  17,690
  18,546
  19,447
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.851
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.910
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.960
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  357
  74
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  158
  168
  178
  188
  200
  212
  225
  239
  253
  269
  285
  302
  321
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  208
  212
  217
  223
  229
  236
  244
  252
  261
  271
  281
  292
  304
  317
  330
  344
  360
  376
  392
  410
  429
  449
  470
  492
  515
  540
  566
  593
  622
  652
  683
Funds from operations, $m
  290
  286
  293
  300
  309
  319
  329
  341
  354
  368
  383
  400
  417
  436
  456
  478
  501
  525
  551
  578
  607
  637
  670
  704
  740
  779
  819
  862
  907
  954
  1,004
Change in working capital, $m
  -43
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  333
  287
  294
  301
  310
  320
  331
  343
  356
  370
  386
  402
  420
  439
  459
  481
  504
  528
  554
  582
  611
  642
  674
  709
  745
  784
  825
  867
  913
  960
  1,011
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -208
  -212
  -217
  -223
  -229
  -236
  -244
  -252
  -261
  -271
  -281
  -292
  -304
  -317
  -330
  -344
  -360
  -376
  -392
  -410
  -429
  -449
  -470
  -492
  -515
  -540
  -566
  -593
  -622
  -652
New CAPEX, $m
  -516
  -111
  -130
  -149
  -167
  -186
  -204
  -222
  -240
  -259
  -277
  -297
  -317
  -337
  -358
  -380
  -403
  -427
  -451
  -477
  -503
  -531
  -560
  -590
  -622
  -655
  -690
  -726
  -764
  -804
  -845
Cash from investing activities, $m
  613
  -319
  -342
  -366
  -390
  -415
  -440
  -466
  -492
  -520
  -548
  -578
  -609
  -641
  -675
  -710
  -747
  -787
  -827
  -869
  -913
  -960
  -1,009
  -1,060
  -1,114
  -1,170
  -1,230
  -1,292
  -1,357
  -1,426
  -1,497
Free cash flow, $m
  946
  -32
  -49
  -65
  -80
  -95
  -109
  -123
  -136
  -149
  -163
  -176
  -189
  -203
  -216
  -230
  -244
  -258
  -273
  -287
  -303
  -319
  -335
  -352
  -369
  -387
  -405
  -424
  -444
  -465
  -486
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -615
  52
  70
  80
  90
  99
  109
  119
  129
  139
  149
  159
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  229
  242
  256
  270
  285
  300
  317
  333
  351
  370
  389
  410
  431
  453
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -28
  0
  0
  2
  9
  16
  22
  28
  34
  40
  45
  50
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  108
  112
  116
  120
  123
  127
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -655
  52
  70
  82
  99
  115
  131
  147
  163
  179
  194
  209
  225
  240
  256
  272
  289
  306
  323
  341
  359
  378
  397
  418
  438
  459
  482
  505
  530
  554
  580
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  287
  19
  21
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -30
  -46
  -69
  -79
  -89
  -98
  -108
  -117
  -127
  -137
  -147
  -157
  -168
  -179
  -190
  -201
  -214
  -226
  -239
  -253
  -267
  -281
  -297
  -313
  -330
  -347
  -365
  -385
  -405
  -426
  -448
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  44
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  17
  -48
  -62
  -70
  -78
  -85
  -93
  -100
  -108
  -116
  -124
  -133
  -141
  -150
  -159
  -169
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -211
  -222
  -234
  -247
  -260
  -274
  -289
  -304
  -320
  -336
  -354
Discount rate, %
 
  8.00
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  16
  -41
  -48
  -49
  -49
  -48
  -45
  -43
  -40
  -36
  -32
  -28
  -25
  -21
  -18
  -14
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.8
  99.6
  99.3
  98.9
  98.4
  97.9
  97.3
  96.7
  96.1
  95.5
  94.8
  94.1
  93.4
  92.8
  92.1
  91.4
  90.7
  90.0
  89.3
  88.7
  88.0
  87.4
  86.8
  86.2
  85.6
  85.0
  84.4

Liberty Property Trust (the Trust) is a self-administered and self-managed Maryland real estate investment trust (REIT). The Trust's assets are owned directly or indirectly, and substantially all of the Trust's operations are conducted directly or indirectly, by its subsidiary, Liberty Property Limited Partnership (the Operating Partnership). The Company's segments include Carolinas/Richmond; Chicago/Milwaukee; Florida; Houston; Lehigh/Central PA; Minnesota; Philadelphia; Southeastern PA; United Kingdom, and Other, which includes Arizona; Atlanta; Cincinnati/Columbus/Indianapolis; Dallas; DC Metro; New Jersey; Southern California, and other. The Company owns and operates industrial properties nationally and owns and operates office properties in a focused group of office markets. Additionally, the Company owns certain assets in the United Kingdom. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned and operated 450 industrial and 55 office properties totaling 86.0 million square feet.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Liberty Property Trust (LPT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17
Price to Sales 8.1
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -33.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -6.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -21.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 85.1%
Total Debt to Equity 85.1%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Return On Total Capital 6.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Equity 11.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 70.5%
EBITDA Margin 93.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 80.8%
Operating Margin 30.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 46.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.6%
Net Profit Margin 47.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Payout Ratio 78.2%

LPT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LPT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $747 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Liberty Property Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Liberty Property Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LPT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8%, whose default value for LPT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Liberty Property Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Liberty Property Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LPT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 53.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $124 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LPT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for Liberty Property Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Liberty Property Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LPT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LPT are equal to 744.6%.

Life of production assets of 26.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Liberty Property Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LPT is equal to -5.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3003 million for Liberty Property Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 148.008 million for Liberty Property Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Liberty Property Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Liberty Property Trust Provides Update on Houston Operation   [Aug-31-17 01:20PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Liberty Property reports 2Q results   [Jul-25-17 09:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ 4 REIT Plays with Beat Potential in Q2 Earnings   [Jul-19-17 05:19PM  Zacks]
▶ MRC Global leases its largest distribution center   [May-18-17 12:40PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Liberty Property reports 1Q results   [Apr-25-17 08:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Stihl distributor warehouse to break ground near OIA   [07:40AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Is Liberty Property Trust (LPT) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-06-16 12:24AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Local brokerage takes over leasing at northwest Houston building   [Dec-01-16 04:05PM  at bizjournals.com]
Financial statements of LPT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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