Intrinsic value of Liberty Property Trust - LPT

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$41.72

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$41.72

 
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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as LPT.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LPT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.66
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  747
  762
  779
  799
  822
  847
  874
  904
  936
  971
  1,008
  1,048
  1,091
  1,136
  1,184
  1,235
  1,289
  1,347
  1,407
  1,471
  1,539
  1,610
  1,685
  1,765
  1,848
  1,936
  2,029
  2,126
  2,229
  2,337
  2,450
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  406
  415
  426
  438
  451
  466
  482
  499
  518
  537
  559
  581
  605
  631
  658
  687
  718
  750
  784
  820
  858
  898
  941
  985
  1,032
  1,081
  1,133
  1,188
  1,246
  1,306
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  127
  130
  134
  137
  140
  144
  147
  151
  155
  159
  163
  167
  171
  175
  180
  184
  189
  193
  198
  203
  208
  213
  219
  224
  230
  236
  242
  248
  254
  260
Total operating expenses, $m
  519
  533
  545
  560
  575
  591
  610
  629
  650
  673
  696
  722
  748
  776
  806
  838
  871
  907
  943
  982
  1,023
  1,066
  1,111
  1,160
  1,209
  1,262
  1,317
  1,375
  1,436
  1,500
  1,566
Operating income, $m
  228
  229
  234
  240
  247
  255
  264
  275
  286
  299
  312
  327
  343
  360
  378
  397
  418
  440
  464
  489
  515
  544
  574
  605
  639
  674
  712
  751
  793
  838
  884
EBITDA, $m
  436
  463
  474
  486
  500
  516
  533
  553
  574
  597
  622
  649
  678
  709
  742
  777
  815
  854
  897
  941
  989
  1,039
  1,092
  1,148
  1,207
  1,270
  1,336
  1,406
  1,479
  1,556
  1,638
Interest expense (income), $m
  143
  136
  138
  142
  146
  151
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  190
  199
  208
  217
  227
  238
  249
  262
  274
  288
  302
  317
  333
  350
  367
  386
  406
  426
  448
  471
Earnings before tax, $m
  346
  93
  96
  98
  101
  104
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  152
  161
  170
  180
  191
  202
  214
  228
  242
  256
  272
  289
  307
  326
  346
  367
  390
  414
Tax expense, $m
  2
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  49
  51
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  112
Net income, $m
  357
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  139
  148
  157
  166
  176
  187
  199
  211
  224
  238
  252
  268
  284
  302

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  44
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,993
  6,047
  6,186
  6,345
  6,524
  6,721
  6,938
  7,175
  7,431
  7,706
  8,002
  8,318
  8,656
  9,015
  9,397
  9,803
  10,232
  10,687
  11,168
  11,676
  12,213
  12,779
  13,376
  14,005
  14,668
  15,366
  16,101
  16,875
  17,690
  18,546
  19,447
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,949
  6,047
  6,186
  6,345
  6,524
  6,721
  6,938
  7,175
  7,431
  7,706
  8,002
  8,318
  8,656
  9,015
  9,397
  9,803
  10,232
  10,687
  11,168
  11,676
  12,213
  12,779
  13,376
  14,005
  14,668
  15,366
  16,101
  16,875
  17,690
  18,546
  19,447
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
Average production assets, $m
  5,563
  5,673
  5,803
  5,952
  6,120
  6,305
  6,509
  6,730
  6,970
  7,229
  7,506
  7,803
  8,120
  8,457
  8,815
  9,196
  9,599
  10,025
  10,476
  10,953
  11,456
  11,987
  12,547
  13,138
  13,759
  14,415
  15,104
  15,830
  16,594
  17,398
  18,243
Working capital, $m
  0
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -145
Total debt, $m
  2,557
  2,606
  2,675
  2,755
  2,845
  2,944
  3,053
  3,172
  3,300
  3,438
  3,587
  3,746
  3,915
  4,096
  4,287
  4,491
  4,707
  4,935
  5,176
  5,431
  5,701
  5,985
  6,285
  6,600
  6,933
  7,284
  7,653
  8,041
  8,450
  8,880
  9,333
Total liabilities, $m
  2,989
  3,036
  3,105
  3,185
  3,275
  3,374
  3,483
  3,602
  3,730
  3,868
  4,017
  4,176
  4,345
  4,526
  4,717
  4,921
  5,137
  5,365
  5,606
  5,861
  6,131
  6,415
  6,715
  7,030
  7,363
  7,714
  8,083
  8,471
  8,880
  9,310
  9,763
Total equity, $m
  3,003
  3,011
  3,081
  3,160
  3,249
  3,347
  3,455
  3,573
  3,700
  3,838
  3,985
  4,143
  4,311
  4,490
  4,680
  4,882
  5,096
  5,322
  5,562
  5,815
  6,082
  6,364
  6,661
  6,974
  7,305
  7,652
  8,018
  8,404
  8,809
  9,236
  9,685
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,992
  6,047
  6,186
  6,345
  6,524
  6,721
  6,938
  7,175
  7,430
  7,706
  8,002
  8,319
  8,656
  9,016
  9,397
  9,803
  10,233
  10,687
  11,168
  11,676
  12,213
  12,779
  13,376
  14,004
  14,668
  15,366
  16,101
  16,875
  17,689
  18,546
  19,448
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.851
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.910
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.960
  0.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.497
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  357
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  139
  148
  157
  166
  176
  187
  199
  211
  224
  238
  252
  268
  284
  302
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  208
  234
  240
  246
  253
  261
  269
  278
  288
  299
  310
  322
  336
  349
  364
  380
  397
  414
  433
  453
  473
  495
  518
  543
  569
  596
  624
  654
  686
  719
  754
Funds from operations, $m
  290
  302
  310
  318
  327
  337
  348
  361
  374
  389
  405
  422
  441
  460
  482
  504
  528
  553
  581
  609
  640
  672
  706
  742
  780
  820
  862
  907
  954
  1,003
  1,056
Change in working capital, $m
  -43
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  333
  0
  311
  319
  328
  338
  350
  362
  376
  391
  407
  425
  443
  463
  484
  507
  531
  557
  584
  613
  644
  676
  710
  746
  784
  825
  867
  912
  960
  1,010
  1,062
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -230
  -234
  -240
  -246
  -253
  -261
  -269
  -278
  -288
  -299
  -310
  -322
  -336
  -349
  -364
  -380
  -397
  -414
  -433
  -453
  -473
  -495
  -518
  -543
  -569
  -596
  -624
  -654
  -686
  -719
New CAPEX, $m
  -516
  -111
  -130
  -149
  -167
  -186
  -204
  -222
  -240
  -259
  -277
  -297
  -317
  -337
  -358
  -380
  -403
  -427
  -451
  -477
  -503
  -531
  -560
  -590
  -622
  -655
  -690
  -726
  -764
  -804
  -845
Cash from investing activities, $m
  613
  -341
  -364
  -389
  -413
  -439
  -465
  -491
  -518
  -547
  -576
  -607
  -639
  -673
  -707
  -744
  -783
  -824
  -865
  -910
  -956
  -1,004
  -1,055
  -1,108
  -1,165
  -1,224
  -1,286
  -1,350
  -1,418
  -1,490
  -1,564
Free cash flow, $m
  946
  -341
  -54
  -70
  -85
  -100
  -114
  -128
  -142
  -155
  -169
  -182
  -196
  -210
  -223
  -237
  -252
  -266
  -281
  -297
  -312
  -329
  -345
  -363
  -380
  -399
  -418
  -438
  -458
  -480
  -502
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -615
  49
  70
  80
  90
  99
  109
  119
  128
  138
  148
  159
  169
  180
  192
  203
  216
  228
  241
  255
  269
  284
  300
  316
  333
  351
  369
  388
  409
  430
  452
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -28
  301
  54
  70
  85
  99
  114
  127
  141
  154
  168
  181
  195
  208
  222
  236
  250
  265
  279
  295
  310
  326
  343
  360
  378
  396
  415
  435
  455
  476
  498
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -655
  350
  124
  150
  175
  198
  223
  246
  269
  292
  316
  340
  364
  388
  414
  439
  466
  493
  520
  550
  579
  610
  643
  676
  711
  747
  784
  823
  864
  906
  950
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  287
  -292
  16
  10
  4
  -1
  -5
  -10
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -48
  -49
  -49
  -49
  -50
  -49
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -30
  -52
  -69
  -79
  -89
  -98
  -108
  -118
  -127
  -137
  -147
  -158
  -168
  -179
  -190
  -202
  -214
  -226
  -239
  -253
  -267
  -282
  -297
  -313
  -330
  -348
  -366
  -385
  -406
  -427
  -449
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  44
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
  28.09
  29.49
  30.97
  32.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.2
  94.4
  93.3
  92.1
  90.7
  89.2
  87.6
  86.0
  84.2
  82.4
  80.6
  78.8
  77.0
  75.1
  73.3
  71.5
  69.7
  67.9
  66.2
  64.5
  62.8
  61.2
  59.6
  58.0
  56.5
  55.0
  53.6
  52.2
  50.8
  49.5

Liberty Property Trust is a publicly owned real estate investment holding trust. Through its subsidiary, it provides leasing, property management, development, acquisition, and other tenant-related services for a portfolio of industrial and office properties. The firm invests in industrial properties including various warehouse, distribution, service, assembly, light manufacturing, and research and development facilities. Its office properties include multi-story and single-story office buildings located principally in suburban mixed-use developments or office parks. Liberty Property Trust was founded in 1972 and is based in Malvern, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Liberty Property Trust (LPT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.2
Price to Sales 8.2
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -33.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -6.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -21.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 85.1%
Total Debt to Equity 85.1%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Return On Total Capital 6.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Equity 11.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 70.5%
EBITDA Margin 93.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 80.8%
Operating Margin 30.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 46.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.6%
Net Profit Margin 47.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Payout Ratio 78.2%

LPT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LPT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $747 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Liberty Property Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Liberty Property Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LPT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.9%, whose default value for LPT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Liberty Property Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Liberty Property Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LPT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 53.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $124 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LPT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for Liberty Property Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Liberty Property Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LPT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LPT are equal to 744.5%.

Life of production assets of 24.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Liberty Property Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LPT is equal to -5.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3003 million for Liberty Property Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 145.418 million for Liberty Property Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Liberty Property Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ MRC Global leases its largest distribution center   [May-18-17 12:40PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Liberty Property reports 1Q results   [Apr-25-17 08:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Stihl distributor warehouse to break ground near OIA   [07:40AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Is Liberty Property Trust (LPT) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-06-16 12:24AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Local brokerage takes over leasing at northwest Houston building   [Dec-01-16 04:05PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Office building portfolio sold for $170M as part of national deal   [Oct-06-16 11:40AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ American Water to build new HQ on Camden waterfront   [Jul-14-16 01:41PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ CFO Moves: Liberty Property Trust, Post Properties   [May-09-16 06:14PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Stock chart of LPT Financial statements of LPT Annual reports of LPT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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