Intrinsic value of La Quinta Holdings - LQ

Previous Close

$15.15

  Intrinsic Value

$1.95

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-87%

  Value-price divergence*

-41%

Previous close

$15.15

 
Intrinsic value

$1.95

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-41%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LQ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -2.33
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,006
  1,026
  1,050
  1,077
  1,107
  1,141
  1,177
  1,217
  1,261
  1,308
  1,358
  1,412
  1,469
  1,530
  1,595
  1,663
  1,736
  1,813
  1,895
  1,981
  2,072
  2,168
  2,270
  2,376
  2,489
  2,607
  2,732
  2,864
  3,002
  3,147
  3,300
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  899
  920
  943
  970
  999
  1,031
  1,067
  1,105
  1,145
  1,189
  1,236
  1,287
  1,340
  1,397
  1,457
  1,521
  1,589
  1,660
  1,736
  1,815
  1,899
  1,988
  2,082
  2,180
  2,284
  2,393
  2,508
  2,629
  2,757
  2,891
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  928
  899
  920
  943
  970
  999
  1,031
  1,067
  1,105
  1,145
  1,189
  1,236
  1,287
  1,340
  1,397
  1,457
  1,521
  1,589
  1,660
  1,736
  1,815
  1,899
  1,988
  2,082
  2,180
  2,284
  2,393
  2,508
  2,629
  2,757
  2,891
Operating income, $m
  78
  127
  130
  134
  137
  141
  146
  151
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  190
  198
  206
  215
  225
  235
  246
  257
  269
  281
  295
  309
  323
  339
  355
  372
  390
  409
EBITDA, $m
  226
  278
  284
  292
  300
  309
  319
  330
  341
  354
  368
  382
  398
  414
  432
  450
  470
  491
  513
  537
  561
  587
  615
  644
  674
  706
  740
  775
  813
  852
  894
Interest expense (income), $m
  77
  76
  78
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
  191
  201
  212
  223
  235
  247
  260
  274
  289
Earnings before tax, $m
  -1
  52
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
Tax expense, $m
  0
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
Net income, $m
  -1
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  59
  61
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  161
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,893
  2,788
  2,853
  2,926
  3,008
  3,099
  3,199
  3,308
  3,426
  3,553
  3,690
  3,836
  3,991
  4,157
  4,333
  4,520
  4,718
  4,928
  5,150
  5,384
  5,631
  5,892
  6,168
  6,458
  6,763
  7,085
  7,424
  7,781
  8,157
  8,552
  8,967
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,732
  2,788
  2,853
  2,926
  3,008
  3,099
  3,199
  3,308
  3,426
  3,553
  3,690
  3,836
  3,991
  4,157
  4,333
  4,520
  4,718
  4,928
  5,150
  5,384
  5,631
  5,892
  6,168
  6,458
  6,763
  7,085
  7,424
  7,781
  8,157
  8,552
  8,967
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
Average production assets, $m
  2,718
  2,772
  2,835
  2,908
  2,990
  3,081
  3,180
  3,288
  3,406
  3,532
  3,667
  3,812
  3,967
  4,132
  4,307
  4,493
  4,690
  4,898
  5,119
  5,351
  5,597
  5,857
  6,130
  6,419
  6,723
  7,043
  7,380
  7,734
  8,108
  8,500
  8,913
Working capital, $m
  65
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -234
  -245
  -257
Total debt, $m
  1,700
  1,729
  1,781
  1,841
  1,908
  1,982
  2,063
  2,152
  2,248
  2,351
  2,462
  2,580
  2,707
  2,842
  2,985
  3,137
  3,298
  3,468
  3,649
  3,839
  4,040
  4,252
  4,476
  4,712
  4,961
  5,222
  5,498
  5,788
  6,093
  6,415
  6,752
Total liabilities, $m
  2,237
  2,267
  2,319
  2,379
  2,446
  2,520
  2,601
  2,690
  2,786
  2,889
  3,000
  3,118
  3,245
  3,380
  3,523
  3,675
  3,836
  4,006
  4,187
  4,377
  4,578
  4,790
  5,014
  5,250
  5,499
  5,760
  6,036
  6,326
  6,631
  6,953
  7,290
Total equity, $m
  655
  521
  533
  547
  563
  580
  598
  619
  641
  664
  690
  717
  746
  777
  810
  845
  882
  922
  963
  1,007
  1,053
  1,102
  1,153
  1,208
  1,265
  1,325
  1,388
  1,455
  1,525
  1,599
  1,677
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,892
  2,788
  2,852
  2,926
  3,009
  3,100
  3,199
  3,309
  3,427
  3,553
  3,690
  3,835
  3,991
  4,157
  4,333
  4,520
  4,718
  4,928
  5,150
  5,384
  5,631
  5,892
  6,167
  6,458
  6,764
  7,085
  7,424
  7,781
  8,156
  8,552
  8,967
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.595
  3.320
  3.340
  3.360
  3.390
  3.420
  3.450
  3.480
  3.510
  3.540
  3.570
  3.600
  3.630
  3.660
  3.680
  3.710
  3.740
  3.760
  3.790
  3.810
  3.840
  3.860
  3.880
  3.900
  3.920
  3.940
  3.960
  3.980
  3.990
  4.010
  4.030
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.181
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -1
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  59
  61
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  148
  151
  154
  158
  162
  167
  173
  179
  185
  192
  199
  207
  216
  225
  234
  244
  255
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  333
  349
  365
  383
  401
  420
  441
  462
  484
Funds from operations, $m
  268
  188
  192
  197
  202
  208
  214
  221
  229
  236
  245
  254
  264
  274
  285
  297
  309
  322
  336
  350
  366
  382
  399
  417
  436
  456
  477
  499
  522
  547
  572
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
Cash from operations, $m
  263
  190
  194
  199
  205
  211
  217
  224
  232
  240
  249
  258
  268
  279
  290
  302
  315
  328
  342
  357
  373
  389
  407
  425
  445
  465
  487
  509
  533
  558
  584
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -148
  -151
  -154
  -158
  -162
  -167
  -173
  -179
  -185
  -192
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -244
  -255
  -266
  -278
  -291
  -304
  -318
  -333
  -349
  -365
  -383
  -401
  -420
  -441
  -462
New CAPEX, $m
  -144
  -54
  -64
  -73
  -82
  -91
  -99
  -108
  -117
  -126
  -136
  -145
  -155
  -165
  -175
  -186
  -197
  -208
  -220
  -233
  -246
  -259
  -274
  -288
  -304
  -320
  -337
  -355
  -373
  -393
  -413
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -69
  -202
  -215
  -227
  -240
  -253
  -266
  -281
  -296
  -311
  -328
  -344
  -362
  -381
  -400
  -420
  -441
  -463
  -486
  -511
  -537
  -563
  -592
  -621
  -653
  -685
  -720
  -756
  -793
  -834
  -875
Free cash flow, $m
  194
  -12
  -20
  -28
  -35
  -43
  -50
  -57
  -64
  -71
  -79
  -86
  -94
  -101
  -110
  -118
  -126
  -135
  -144
  -154
  -164
  -174
  -185
  -196
  -208
  -220
  -233
  -247
  -261
  -275
  -291
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -18
  47
  52
  60
  67
  74
  81
  89
  96
  103
  111
  119
  127
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  180
  190
  201
  212
  224
  236
  249
  262
  276
  290
  305
  321
  338
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -102
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -120
  47
  52
  60
  67
  74
  81
  89
  96
  103
  111
  119
  127
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  180
  190
  201
  212
  224
  236
  249
  262
  276
  290
  305
  321
  338
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  74
  35
  32
  32
  32
  32
  32
  32
  32
  32
  32
  33
  33
  33
  34
  34
  35
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  46
  47
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  89
  -9
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  143
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  169
  20
  18
  16
  15
  13
  11
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  2
  1
  -1
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
Discount rate, %
 
  9.70
  10.19
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.38
  29.79
  31.28
  32.85
  34.49
  36.21
  38.03
  39.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  154
  16
  13
  11
  8
  6
  5
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

La Quinta Holdings Inc. owns, operates, and franchises select-service hotels under the La Quinta brand. As of February 24, 2016, the company had approximately 880 hotels with approximately 87,400 rooms under the La Quinta Inn, La Quinta Inn & Suites, and LQ Hotel brands in 48 states of the United States, as well as in Canada, Mexico, and Honduras. It serves the upper-midscale and midscale segments. La Quinta Holdings Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  La Quinta Holdings (LQ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1769.4
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 56.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 256.8%
Total Debt to Equity 259.5%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.9%
Return On Total Capital -0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.6%
Return On Equity -0.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.9%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.9%
EBITDA Margin 22.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.8%
Operating Margin 7.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Net Profit Margin -0.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 701.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

LQ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LQ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1006 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by La Quinta Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of La Quinta Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LQ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.7%, whose default value for LQ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of La Quinta Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of La Quinta Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LQ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LQ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for La Quinta Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for La Quinta Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LQ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LQ are equal to 270.1%.

Life of production assets of 18.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in La Quinta Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LQ is equal to -7.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $655 million for La Quinta Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 114.099 million for La Quinta Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of La Quinta Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
CHH Choice Hotels 60.40 5.61  str.sell
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MAR Marriott Inter 98.03 530.50  str.buy
IHG InterContinent 50.52 16.25  str.sell
BX Blackstone Gro 31.52 501.61  str.buy
RLH Red Lion Hotel 6.95 1.61  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ La Quinta beats Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-07-17 11:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ La Quinta beats Street 2Q forecasts   [04:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ La Quinta splitting, spinning off real estate business   [Jul-27-17 09:14AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Report: La Quinta looking at sale before spinoff   [May-17-17 11:55AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ La Quinta misses 1Q profit forecasts   [May-04-17 05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ La Quinta Holdings Inc. Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-03-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ La Quinta misses 4Q profit forecasts   [07:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ La Quinta considering splitting into two companies   [Jan-18-17 08:10PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ [$$] Facebook for Stockpickers   [Dec-24-16 12:01AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Is La Quinta Holdings Inc (LQ) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-06-16 12:22AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of LQ Financial statements of LQ
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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