Intrinsic value of K12 - LRN

Previous Close

$16.95

  Intrinsic Value

$5.46

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-68%

  Value-price divergence*

-63%

Previous close

$16.95

 
Intrinsic value

$5.46

 
Up/down potential

-68%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-63%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LRN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.91
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  873
  890
  911
  934
  961
  990
  1,022
  1,057
  1,094
  1,135
  1,178
  1,225
  1,275
  1,328
  1,384
  1,443
  1,507
  1,574
  1,645
  1,719
  1,798
  1,882
  1,970
  2,062
  2,160
  2,263
  2,371
  2,485
  2,605
  2,731
  2,864
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  842
  861
  883
  908
  935
  965
  998
  1,033
  1,071
  1,112
  1,147
  1,193
  1,243
  1,295
  1,351
  1,410
  1,473
  1,539
  1,609
  1,683
  1,761
  1,844
  1,930
  2,022
  2,118
  2,219
  2,326
  2,438
  2,556
  2,681
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  35
  36
  37
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  59
  60
  61
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  71
Total operating expenses, $m
  859
  877
  897
  920
  946
  973
  1,004
  1,038
  1,074
  1,113
  1,156
  1,192
  1,239
  1,290
  1,343
  1,400
  1,460
  1,525
  1,592
  1,663
  1,739
  1,818
  1,903
  1,990
  2,083
  2,181
  2,284
  2,392
  2,506
  2,626
  2,752
Operating income, $m
  14
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
EBITDA, $m
  82
  41
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  97
  102
  108
  115
  121
  129
  136
  144
  153
  162
  171
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
Earnings before tax, $m
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
Tax expense, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  27
Net income, $m
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  23
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  68
  72

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  214
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  734
  530
  543
  556
  572
  589
  609
  629
  652
  676
  702
  730
  759
  791
  824
  860
  897
  937
  979
  1,024
  1,071
  1,121
  1,173
  1,228
  1,286
  1,348
  1,412
  1,480
  1,551
  1,627
  1,706
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  520
  530
  543
  556
  572
  589
  609
  629
  652
  676
  702
  730
  759
  791
  824
  860
  897
  937
  979
  1,024
  1,071
  1,121
  1,173
  1,228
  1,286
  1,348
  1,412
  1,480
  1,551
  1,627
  1,706
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.679
  1.679
  1.678
  1.680
  1.680
  1.681
  1.678
  1.680
  1.678
  1.679
  1.678
  1.678
  1.680
  1.679
  1.680
  1.678
  1.680
  1.680
  1.680
  1.679
  1.679
  1.679
  1.679
  1.679
  1.680
  1.679
  1.679
  1.679
  1.680
  1.679
  1.679
Average production assets, $m
  181
  184
  189
  193
  199
  205
  211
  219
  226
  235
  244
  254
  264
  275
  286
  299
  312
  326
  340
  356
  372
  390
  408
  427
  447
  468
  491
  514
  539
  565
  593
Working capital, $m
  323
  125
  128
  131
  134
  139
  143
  148
  153
  159
  165
  171
  178
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  241
  252
  263
  276
  289
  302
  317
  332
  348
  365
  382
  401
Total debt, $m
  23
  13
  17
  22
  27
  32
  38
  44
  51
  59
  67
  76
  85
  95
  105
  116
  128
  140
  154
  167
  182
  198
  214
  231
  249
  268
  289
  310
  332
  355
  380
Total liabilities, $m
  175
  165
  169
  174
  179
  184
  190
  196
  203
  211
  219
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
  280
  292
  306
  319
  334
  350
  366
  383
  401
  420
  441
  462
  484
  507
  532
Total equity, $m
  559
  365
  373
  383
  394
  406
  419
  433
  448
  465
  483
  502
  522
  544
  567
  591
  617
  645
  674
  705
  737
  771
  807
  845
  885
  927
  972
  1,018
  1,067
  1,119
  1,173
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  734
  530
  542
  557
  573
  590
  609
  629
  651
  676
  702
  730
  759
  791
  824
  859
  897
  937
  980
  1,024
  1,071
  1,121
  1,173
  1,228
  1,286
  1,347
  1,413
  1,480
  1,551
  1,626
  1,705
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.041
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.663
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  23
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  68
  72
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  68
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
Funds from operations, $m
  145
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  48
  50
  53
  56
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
Change in working capital, $m
  23
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Cash from operations, $m
  122
  34
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  42
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  101
  106
  112
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
New CAPEX, $m
  -63
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -83
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
Free cash flow, $m
  39
  13
  12
  11
  11
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -17
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -21
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  18
  16
  16
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -22
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  201
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  210
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  202
  7
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.8
  99.5
  99.1
  98.7
  98.3
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8

K12 Inc., a technology-based education company, offers proprietary curriculum, software systems, and educational services to facilitate individualized learning for students primarily in kindergarten through 12th grade. It manages virtual and blended public schools. The company also offers curriculum and technology solutions; full-time virtual and blended programs, semester courses, and supplemental educational products; teacher training, teaching, and other support services to public schools, school districts, private schools, charter schools, early childhood learning centers, and corporate partners. In addition, it provides FuelEd suite of offerings, such as K12 curriculum, FuelEd online courses, and FuelEd anywhere learning systems; and PEAK, a proprietary software system designed to manage in a single-user interface, multiple, and independent online school-based functions. Further, the company operates online private schools, including The K12 International Academy, the George Washington University Online High School, and the Keystone School. Additionally, it provides access to the online lessons and curriculum through proprietary learning management system; learning kits; student computers; and management, technology, and educational services. The company sells individual online courses directly to families who desire to educate their children outside of the traditional public school system or to supplement their child's existing public school education without the aid of an online teacher. It serves customers in the United States and internationally. K12 Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Herndon, Virginia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  K12 (LRN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 74.7
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 1.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 16
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 1.8%
Total Debt to Equity 4.1%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Total Capital 1.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Return On Equity 1.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.1%
EBITDA Margin 9.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Operating Margin 1.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Net Profit Margin 1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Effective Tax Rate 30.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

LRN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LRN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $873 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by K12. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of K12. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LRN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LRN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of K12, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of K12.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LRN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $34 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LRN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.8% for K12.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for K12. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LRN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LRN are equal to 20.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in K12 operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LRN is equal to 14%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $559 million for K12 - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.124 million for K12 is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of K12 at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Georgia Cyber Academy Kicks Off 2017-2018 School Year   [Aug-10-17 04:25PM  Business Wire]
▶ K12 reports 4Q loss   [Aug-09-17 10:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ Liza McFadden Joins K12 Inc. Board of Directors   [Aug-08-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Tennessee Virtual Academy Begins 2017-18 School Year   [Aug-01-17 04:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ Insight School of Washington to Celebrate Class of 2017   [Jun-15-17 12:02PM  Business Wire]
▶ Texas Virtual Academy to Hold In-Person Graduation Ceremony   [Jun-12-17 03:35PM  Business Wire]
▶ Oregon Virtual Academy to Celebrate Class of 2017   [Jun-08-17 10:33AM  Business Wire]
▶ California Virtual Academies to Celebrate Class of 2017   [Jun-06-17 03:02PM  Business Wire]
▶ 3 Growth Stocks for Those Moving Up in the World   [May-24-17 04:05PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Insight Academy of Arizona to Celebrate 2017 Graduation   [May-23-17 01:13PM  Business Wire]
▶ Idaho Virtual Academy Celebrates Its Ninth Graduating Class   [May-19-17 12:14PM  Business Wire]
▶ Oklahoma Virtual Charter Academy Holds Graduation Ceremony   [May-18-17 02:56PM  Business Wire]
▶ Insight School of Oklahoma to Celebrate Class of 2017   [May-16-17 11:32AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to K12, Inc. : May 3, 2017   [May-03-17 04:04PM  Capital Cube]
Financial statements of LRN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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