Intrinsic value of Landstar System - LSTR

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$83.65

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$83.65

 
Intrinsic value

$57.69

 
Up/down potential

-31%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LSTR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.61
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,169
  3,232
  3,307
  3,392
  3,487
  3,593
  3,709
  3,835
  3,972
  4,119
  4,277
  4,446
  4,627
  4,819
  5,023
  5,240
  5,469
  5,713
  5,970
  6,241
  6,528
  6,831
  7,150
  7,486
  7,840
  8,214
  8,607
  9,020
  9,456
  9,914
  10,395
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,851
  2,916
  2,991
  3,075
  3,168
  3,271
  3,382
  3,502
  3,632
  3,771
  3,917
  4,076
  4,246
  4,426
  4,616
  4,819
  5,033
  5,259
  5,499
  5,751
  6,018
  6,299
  6,595
  6,908
  7,236
  7,583
  7,947
  8,331
  8,734
  9,158
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  158
  162
  166
  170
  174
  179
  183
  188
  192
  197
  202
  207
  212
  218
  223
  229
  234
  240
  246
  252
  259
  265
  272
  279
  286
  293
  300
  307
  315
  323
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,946
  3,009
  3,078
  3,157
  3,245
  3,342
  3,450
  3,565
  3,690
  3,824
  3,968
  4,119
  4,283
  4,458
  4,644
  4,839
  5,048
  5,267
  5,499
  5,745
  6,003
  6,277
  6,564
  6,867
  7,187
  7,522
  7,876
  8,247
  8,638
  9,049
  9,481
Operating income, $m
  223
  224
  229
  235
  242
  250
  260
  270
  282
  295
  309
  327
  343
  361
  380
  400
  422
  445
  470
  496
  524
  554
  586
  619
  654
  692
  731
  773
  818
  864
  914
EBITDA, $m
  259
  259
  265
  272
  280
  290
  300
  312
  325
  339
  355
  372
  390
  410
  431
  453
  478
  503
  531
  560
  590
  623
  658
  695
  734
  775
  819
  865
  913
  965
  1,019
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
Earnings before tax, $m
  219
  220
  225
  231
  237
  245
  254
  264
  275
  287
  300
  318
  333
  350
  368
  387
  408
  430
  453
  478
  505
  533
  563
  595
  628
  664
  702
  742
  784
  828
  875
Tax expense, $m
  82
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  78
  81
  86
  90
  95
  99
  105
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  200
  212
  224
  236
Net income, $m
  137
  161
  164
  168
  173
  179
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  232
  243
  256
  269
  283
  298
  314
  331
  349
  369
  389
  411
  434
  459
  485
  512
  541
  572
  605
  639

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  245
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,097
  869
  889
  912
  938
  966
  997
  1,031
  1,068
  1,108
  1,150
  1,196
  1,244
  1,296
  1,351
  1,409
  1,471
  1,536
  1,605
  1,678
  1,755
  1,837
  1,922
  2,013
  2,108
  2,209
  2,314
  2,425
  2,543
  2,666
  2,795
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  852
  869
  889
  912
  938
  966
  997
  1,031
  1,068
  1,108
  1,150
  1,196
  1,244
  1,296
  1,351
  1,409
  1,471
  1,536
  1,605
  1,678
  1,755
  1,837
  1,922
  2,013
  2,108
  2,209
  2,314
  2,425
  2,543
  2,666
  2,795
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.719
  3.719
  3.720
  3.719
  3.717
  3.719
  3.720
  3.720
  3.719
  3.718
  3.719
  3.717
  3.719
  3.718
  3.718
  3.719
  3.718
  3.719
  3.720
  3.719
  3.720
  3.719
  3.720
  3.719
  3.719
  3.718
  3.720
  3.720
  3.718
  3.719
  3.719
Average production assets, $m
  250
  255
  261
  268
  275
  284
  293
  303
  314
  325
  338
  351
  366
  381
  397
  414
  432
  451
  472
  493
  516
  540
  565
  591
  619
  649
  680
  713
  747
  783
  821
Working capital, $m
  357
  197
  202
  207
  213
  219
  226
  234
  242
  251
  261
  271
  282
  294
  306
  320
  334
  348
  364
  381
  398
  417
  436
  457
  478
  501
  525
  550
  577
  605
  634
Total debt, $m
  175
  103
  114
  127
  141
  157
  174
  193
  214
  236
  259
  285
  311
  340
  371
  403
  437
  474
  512
  552
  595
  640
  688
  738
  791
  847
  905
  967
  1,032
  1,100
  1,172
Total liabilities, $m
  554
  482
  493
  506
  520
  536
  553
  572
  593
  615
  638
  664
  690
  719
  750
  782
  816
  853
  891
  931
  974
  1,019
  1,067
  1,117
  1,170
  1,226
  1,284
  1,346
  1,411
  1,479
  1,551
Total equity, $m
  543
  387
  396
  406
  417
  430
  444
  459
  475
  493
  512
  532
  554
  577
  601
  627
  654
  684
  714
  747
  781
  817
  855
  896
  938
  983
  1,030
  1,079
  1,131
  1,186
  1,244
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,097
  869
  889
  912
  937
  966
  997
  1,031
  1,068
  1,108
  1,150
  1,196
  1,244
  1,296
  1,351
  1,409
  1,470
  1,537
  1,605
  1,678
  1,755
  1,836
  1,922
  2,013
  2,108
  2,209
  2,314
  2,425
  2,542
  2,665
  2,795
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.322
  0.270
  0.290
  0.310
  0.340
  0.370
  0.390
  0.420
  0.450
  0.480
  0.510
  0.530
  0.560
  0.590
  0.620
  0.640
  0.670
  0.690
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.800
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.880
  0.900
  0.910
  0.930
  0.940
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.392
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  137
  161
  164
  168
  173
  179
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  232
  243
  256
  269
  283
  298
  314
  331
  349
  369
  389
  411
  434
  459
  485
  512
  541
  572
  605
  639
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  36
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
Funds from operations, $m
  196
  197
  201
  206
  212
  218
  226
  235
  244
  254
  266
  277
  290
  304
  320
  336
  353
  372
  392
  412
  435
  458
  483
  510
  538
  568
  599
  633
  668
  705
  744
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
Cash from operations, $m
  190
  216
  196
  201
  206
  212
  219
  227
  236
  245
  256
  267
  279
  293
  307
  323
  339
  357
  376
  396
  417
  440
  464
  490
  517
  545
  575
  607
  641
  677
  715
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -32
  -33
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
New CAPEX, $m
  -23
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -14
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -132
  -138
Free cash flow, $m
  176
  178
  158
  160
  164
  168
  174
  179
  186
  194
  202
  210
  220
  231
  242
  255
  268
  282
  298
  314
  331
  350
  370
  391
  413
  436
  461
  488
  516
  545
  576
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -47
  9
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -48
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -98
  9
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  78
  188
  169
  173
  178
  184
  191
  198
  207
  216
  225
  235
  247
  259
  273
  287
  302
  319
  336
  355
  374
  395
  417
  441
  466
  492
  520
  549
  581
  613
  648
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -77
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  164
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  344
  160
  163
  167
  171
  177
  183
  190
  198
  207
  215
  225
  236
  248
  261
  275
  290
  305
  322
  340
  359
  379
  401
  423
  447
  473
  500
  528
  559
  591
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  330
  146
  142
  137
  133
  128
  124
  119
  114
  108
  102
  96
  90
  83
  77
  70
  63
  56
  50
  43
  37
  31
  26
  22
  17
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Landstar System, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated transportation management solutions in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Transportation Logistics and Insurance. The Transportation Logistics segment provides various transportation services, including truckload and less-than-truckload transportation, rail intermodal, air cargo, ocean cargo, expedited ground and air delivery of time-critical freight, heavy-haul/specialized, U.S.-Canada and U.S.-Mexico cross-border, project cargo, and customs brokerage, as well as offers transportation services to other transportation companies, including logistics and less-than-truckload service providers. This segment offers truck services through dry and specialty vans of various sizes, unsided/platform trailers, temperature-controlled vans, and containers; rail intermodal services through contracts with domestic and Canadian railroads; and air and ocean services through contracts with domestic and international airlines and ocean lines. It serves automotive products, building products, metals, chemicals, foodstuffs, heavy machinery, retail, electronics, ammunition and explosives, and military equipment industries. The Insurance segment provides risk and claims management services, as well as reinsures certain risks of the company’s independent contractors. The company markets its services through independent commission sales agents and third party capacity providers. Landstar System, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Landstar System (LSTR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.5
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 6.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 21
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 360%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 30.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 17.3%
Total Debt to Equity 32.2%
Interest Coverage 56
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Return On Total Capital 20.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Return On Equity 27.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.2%
Asset Turnover 3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 15.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
EBITDA Margin 8.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Operating Margin 7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Net Profit Margin 4.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 37.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.5%
Payout Ratio 10.2%

LSTR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LSTR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3169 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Landstar System. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Landstar System. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LSTR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LSTR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Landstar System, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Landstar System.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LSTR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $154 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LSTR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Landstar System.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Landstar System. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LSTR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LSTR are equal to 7.9%.

Life of production assets of 7.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Landstar System operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LSTR is equal to 6.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $543 million for Landstar System - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 41.565 million for Landstar System is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Landstar System at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.5 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Behind Kansas City Southerns Week 19 Intermodal Volumes   [May-25-17 09:07AM  Market Realist]
▶ Landstar beats Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-26-17 05:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Truckers Held Hostage By NAFTA Impasse   [Mar-10-17 11:11AM  Investopedia]
▶ Truckers Held Hostage By NAFTA Impasse   [11:11AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Landstar tops Street 4Q forecasts   [Feb-01-17 07:05PM  Associated Press]
▶ Trump's Tough Talk on Trade With Mexico Weighs on Logistics Boom   [Jan-25-17 02:20PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Truckers Need NAFTA to Rally in 2017 (JBHT, LSTR)   [Dec-28-16 10:41AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Sell the Trump bump in these truck stocks now, analyst says   [Dec-16-16 04:17PM  at MarketWatch]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR)?   [Dec-02-16 01:47PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Nuclear Verdicts Have Insurers Running From Trucks   [Oct-14-16 11:06PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Stock chart of LSTR Financial statements of LSTR Annual reports of LSTR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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