Intrinsic value of LTC Properties - LTC

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$49.48

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$49.48

 
Intrinsic value

$4.64

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as LTC.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LTC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.12
  13.50
  12.65
  11.89
  11.20
  10.58
  10.02
  9.52
  9.07
  8.66
  8.29
  7.96
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.94
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.03
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
Revenue, $m
  162
  184
  207
  232
  258
  285
  314
  343
  374
  407
  441
  476
  512
  550
  589
  630
  673
  717
  763
  811
  861
  913
  967
  1,024
  1,082
  1,144
  1,208
  1,275
  1,345
  1,418
  1,495
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  90
  101
  113
  126
  139
  153
  168
  183
  199
  215
  232
  250
  268
  288
  308
  328
  350
  372
  396
  420
  446
  472
  500
  528
  558
  590
  622
  656
  692
  730
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  81
  90
  101
  113
  126
  139
  153
  168
  183
  199
  215
  232
  250
  268
  288
  308
  328
  350
  372
  396
  420
  446
  472
  500
  528
  558
  590
  622
  656
  692
  730
Operating income, $m
  80
  94
  106
  119
  132
  146
  161
  176
  192
  208
  226
  244
  262
  282
  302
  323
  345
  367
  391
  415
  441
  467
  495
  524
  554
  586
  619
  653
  689
  726
  765
EBITDA, $m
  116
  135
  152
  170
  189
  209
  230
  252
  275
  299
  324
  349
  376
  404
  433
  463
  494
  527
  561
  596
  632
  670
  710
  752
  795
  840
  887
  936
  988
  1,042
  1,098
Interest expense (income), $m
  24
  25
  29
  32
  36
  41
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  77
  83
  89
  96
  102
  109
  117
  124
  132
  141
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  221
  233
Earnings before tax, $m
  85
  69
  78
  86
  95
  105
  115
  126
  137
  148
  160
  173
  185
  199
  213
  227
  242
  258
  274
  291
  309
  327
  346
  366
  387
  409
  431
  455
  480
  506
  533
Tax expense, $m
  0
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
  116
  123
  130
  137
  144
Net income, $m
  85
  50
  57
  63
  70
  77
  84
  92
  100
  108
  117
  126
  135
  145
  155
  166
  177
  188
  200
  212
  225
  239
  253
  267
  282
  298
  315
  332
  350
  369
  389

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,395
  1,572
  1,770
  1,981
  2,203
  2,435
  2,679
  2,935
  3,201
  3,478
  3,766
  4,066
  4,378
  4,702
  5,038
  5,388
  5,752
  6,130
  6,524
  6,933
  7,359
  7,803
  8,266
  8,749
  9,252
  9,777
  10,326
  10,899
  11,497
  12,124
  12,778
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,387
  1,572
  1,770
  1,981
  2,203
  2,435
  2,679
  2,935
  3,201
  3,478
  3,766
  4,066
  4,378
  4,702
  5,038
  5,388
  5,752
  6,130
  6,524
  6,933
  7,359
  7,803
  8,266
  8,749
  9,252
  9,777
  10,326
  10,899
  11,497
  12,124
  12,778
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
Average production assets, $m
  987
  1,120
  1,262
  1,412
  1,570
  1,736
  1,910
  2,092
  2,282
  2,479
  2,685
  2,899
  3,121
  3,352
  3,592
  3,841
  4,100
  4,370
  4,651
  4,942
  5,246
  5,563
  5,893
  6,237
  6,595
  6,970
  7,361
  7,769
  8,196
  8,643
  9,109
Working capital, $m
  0
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -73
Total debt, $m
  609
  696
  790
  889
  994
  1,104
  1,219
  1,339
  1,465
  1,595
  1,732
  1,873
  2,020
  2,173
  2,332
  2,497
  2,669
  2,847
  3,033
  3,226
  3,428
  3,637
  3,856
  4,083
  4,321
  4,569
  4,828
  5,098
  5,381
  5,676
  5,985
Total liabilities, $m
  655
  742
  836
  935
  1,040
  1,150
  1,265
  1,385
  1,511
  1,641
  1,778
  1,919
  2,066
  2,219
  2,378
  2,543
  2,715
  2,893
  3,079
  3,272
  3,474
  3,683
  3,902
  4,129
  4,367
  4,615
  4,874
  5,144
  5,427
  5,722
  6,031
Total equity, $m
  740
  830
  935
  1,046
  1,163
  1,286
  1,415
  1,549
  1,690
  1,836
  1,988
  2,147
  2,311
  2,483
  2,660
  2,845
  3,037
  3,237
  3,444
  3,661
  3,886
  4,120
  4,364
  4,619
  4,885
  5,162
  5,452
  5,755
  6,071
  6,401
  6,747
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,395
  1,572
  1,771
  1,981
  2,203
  2,436
  2,680
  2,934
  3,201
  3,477
  3,766
  4,066
  4,377
  4,702
  5,038
  5,388
  5,752
  6,130
  6,523
  6,933
  7,360
  7,803
  8,266
  8,748
  9,252
  9,777
  10,326
  10,899
  11,498
  12,123
  12,778
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.823
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  85
  50
  57
  63
  70
  77
  84
  92
  100
  108
  117
  126
  135
  145
  155
  166
  177
  188
  200
  212
  225
  239
  253
  267
  282
  298
  315
  332
  350
  369
  389
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  36
  41
  46
  52
  57
  63
  70
  76
  83
  90
  98
  106
  114
  122
  131
  140
  150
  159
  170
  180
  191
  203
  215
  228
  241
  254
  269
  284
  299
  315
  332
Funds from operations, $m
  98
  91
  103
  115
  127
  140
  154
  168
  183
  199
  215
  232
  249
  267
  286
  306
  326
  348
  370
  393
  417
  442
  468
  495
  523
  553
  583
  616
  649
  685
  721
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  106
  131
  104
  116
  128
  141
  155
  170
  185
  200
  217
  233
  251
  269
  288
  308
  329
  350
  372
  395
  419
  444
  470
  498
  526
  556
  587
  619
  653
  688
  725
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -70
  -76
  -83
  -90
  -98
  -106
  -114
  -122
  -131
  -140
  -150
  -159
  -170
  -180
  -191
  -203
  -215
  -228
  -241
  -254
  -269
  -284
  -299
  -315
New CAPEX, $m
  -124
  -133
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -222
  -231
  -240
  -249
  -259
  -270
  -280
  -292
  -304
  -317
  -330
  -344
  -359
  -374
  -391
  -408
  -427
  -446
  -467
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -140
  -169
  -183
  -196
  -210
  -223
  -237
  -252
  -266
  -281
  -296
  -312
  -328
  -345
  -362
  -380
  -399
  -420
  -439
  -462
  -484
  -508
  -533
  -559
  -587
  -615
  -645
  -677
  -711
  -745
  -782
Free cash flow, $m
  -34
  -38
  -79
  -80
  -81
  -82
  -82
  -82
  -81
  -81
  -80
  -78
  -77
  -76
  -74
  -72
  -71
  -69
  -68
  -66
  -65
  -64
  -63
  -61
  -60
  -60
  -59
  -58
  -58
  -57
  -57
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  37
  87
  94
  99
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  136
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  193
  201
  210
  218
  228
  238
  248
  259
  270
  283
  295
  309
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  79
  41
  90
  92
  94
  95
  96
  96
  96
  96
  96
  95
  94
  94
  93
  92
  91
  91
  90
  89
  89
  89
  88
  88
  89
  89
  90
  90
  91
  92
  94
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  114
  128
  184
  191
  199
  205
  211
  216
  222
  227
  232
  237
  241
  247
  252
  257
  263
  270
  276
  282
  290
  299
  306
  316
  327
  337
  349
  360
  374
  387
  403
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  80
  49
  15
  19
  23
  28
  33
  39
  44
  50
  57
  63
  70
  77
  85
  93
  101
  109
  118
  127
  136
  146
  156
  166
  177
  188
  200
  212
  225
  238
  252
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -81
  -98
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -244
  -255
  -266
  -277
  -290
  -303
  -316
  -331
  -346
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.9
  94.1
  90.8
  87.8
  85.2
  82.9
  80.8
  79.0
  77.3
  75.9
  74.5
  73.3
  72.2
  71.2
  70.3
  69.5
  68.7
  68.0
  67.3
  66.7
  66.2
  65.6
  65.1
  64.7
  64.2
  63.8
  63.4
  63.0
  62.7
  62.3

LTC Properties, Inc. operates as a health care real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. It invests in senior housing and long term healthcare properties, including skilled nursing properties, assisted living properties, independent living properties, and combinations through mortgage loans, property lease transactions, and other investments. Its portfolio consists of 89 skilled nursing properties, 102 assisted living properties, 14 other senior housing properties, 2 schools, and a parcel of land under development. As a REIT, the company would not be subject to federal income tax, if it distributes at least 90% of net taxable income to its stockholders. LTC Properties, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is based in Westlake Village, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  LTC Properties (LTC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.8
Price to Sales 12
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -107.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 19.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -48.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 19.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 82.3%
Total Debt to Equity 82.3%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Return On Total Capital 6.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Equity 12.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 89.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 90.4%
Operating Margin 50%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 52.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.8%
Net Profit Margin 52.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 100%

LTC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LTC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $162 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by LTC Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of LTC Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LTC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.6%, whose default value for LTC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of LTC Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of LTC Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LTC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 48.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LTC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for LTC Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for LTC Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LTC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LTC are equal to 609.3%.

Life of production assets of 27.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in LTC Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LTC is equal to -4.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $740 million for LTC Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 39.875 million for LTC Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of LTC Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.


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Stock chart of LTC Financial statements of LTC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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