Intrinsic value of LTC Properties - LTC

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$51.17

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as LTC.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LTC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.12
  10.30
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.80
  5.72
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
Revenue, $m
  162
  179
  196
  214
  233
  253
  274
  295
  317
  340
  364
  389
  415
  442
  470
  500
  530
  562
  595
  629
  665
  703
  742
  783
  826
  871
  918
  967
  1,018
  1,072
  1,128
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  87
  96
  105
  114
  124
  134
  144
  155
  166
  178
  190
  203
  216
  230
  244
  259
  274
  290
  307
  325
  343
  362
  382
  403
  425
  448
  472
  497
  523
  550
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  81
  87
  96
  105
  114
  124
  134
  144
  155
  166
  178
  190
  203
  216
  230
  244
  259
  274
  290
  307
  325
  343
  362
  382
  403
  425
  448
  472
  497
  523
  550
Operating income, $m
  80
  91
  100
  110
  119
  130
  140
  151
  162
  174
  187
  199
  213
  227
  241
  256
  271
  288
  305
  322
  341
  360
  380
  401
  423
  446
  470
  495
  521
  549
  577
EBITDA, $m
  116
  131
  144
  157
  171
  186
  201
  217
  233
  250
  268
  286
  305
  325
  346
  367
  389
  413
  437
  462
  489
  516
  545
  575
  607
  639
  674
  710
  748
  787
  828
Interest expense (income), $m
  24
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  51
  54
  58
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
Earnings before tax, $m
  85
  67
  73
  79
  86
  93
  100
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  160
  170
  180
  191
  202
  214
  226
  238
  252
  266
  280
  295
  311
  328
  345
  363
  382
  402
Tax expense, $m
  0
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  51
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
Net income, $m
  85
  49
  53
  58
  63
  68
  73
  79
  84
  90
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  204
  216
  227
  239
  252
  265
  279
  294

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,395
  1,527
  1,676
  1,832
  1,995
  2,164
  2,340
  2,523
  2,713
  2,910
  3,115
  3,329
  3,550
  3,781
  4,021
  4,271
  4,531
  4,802
  5,085
  5,379
  5,687
  6,008
  6,343
  6,693
  7,060
  7,442
  7,843
  8,262
  8,700
  9,159
  9,640
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,387
  1,527
  1,676
  1,832
  1,995
  2,164
  2,340
  2,523
  2,713
  2,910
  3,115
  3,329
  3,550
  3,781
  4,021
  4,271
  4,531
  4,802
  5,085
  5,379
  5,687
  6,008
  6,343
  6,693
  7,060
  7,442
  7,843
  8,262
  8,700
  9,159
  9,640
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
Average production assets, $m
  987
  1,089
  1,195
  1,306
  1,422
  1,542
  1,668
  1,798
  1,934
  2,075
  2,221
  2,373
  2,531
  2,696
  2,867
  3,045
  3,230
  3,423
  3,625
  3,835
  4,054
  4,283
  4,522
  4,772
  5,033
  5,306
  5,591
  5,890
  6,202
  6,530
  6,872
Working capital, $m
  0
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
Total debt, $m
  609
  675
  745
  819
  895
  975
  1,058
  1,145
  1,234
  1,328
  1,424
  1,525
  1,630
  1,739
  1,852
  1,970
  2,093
  2,221
  2,354
  2,493
  2,638
  2,790
  2,948
  3,113
  3,286
  3,467
  3,656
  3,854
  4,061
  4,277
  4,504
Total liabilities, $m
  655
  721
  791
  865
  941
  1,021
  1,104
  1,191
  1,280
  1,374
  1,470
  1,571
  1,676
  1,785
  1,898
  2,016
  2,139
  2,267
  2,400
  2,539
  2,684
  2,836
  2,994
  3,159
  3,332
  3,513
  3,702
  3,900
  4,107
  4,323
  4,550
Total equity, $m
  740
  806
  885
  967
  1,053
  1,142
  1,235
  1,332
  1,432
  1,537
  1,645
  1,758
  1,875
  1,996
  2,123
  2,255
  2,392
  2,536
  2,685
  2,840
  3,003
  3,172
  3,349
  3,534
  3,727
  3,930
  4,141
  4,362
  4,594
  4,836
  5,090
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,395
  1,527
  1,676
  1,832
  1,994
  2,163
  2,339
  2,523
  2,712
  2,911
  3,115
  3,329
  3,551
  3,781
  4,021
  4,271
  4,531
  4,803
  5,085
  5,379
  5,687
  6,008
  6,343
  6,693
  7,059
  7,443
  7,843
  8,262
  8,701
  9,159
  9,640
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.823
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  85
  49
  53
  58
  63
  68
  73
  79
  84
  90
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  204
  216
  227
  239
  252
  265
  279
  294
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  204
  215
  226
  238
  251
Funds from operations, $m
  98
  88
  97
  105
  115
  124
  134
  144
  155
  166
  178
  190
  202
  215
  228
  242
  257
  272
  288
  305
  322
  340
  359
  379
  399
  421
  443
  467
  491
  517
  544
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  106
  89
  98
  106
  116
  125
  135
  145
  156
  167
  179
  191
  203
  216
  230
  244
  259
  274
  290
  306
  324
  342
  361
  381
  401
  423
  446
  469
  494
  520
  547
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -238
New CAPEX, $m
  -124
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -210
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -261
  -273
  -285
  -299
  -313
  -327
  -343
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -140
  -138
  -146
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -181
  -191
  -201
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -245
  -256
  -269
  -283
  -296
  -311
  -326
  -342
  -359
  -377
  -395
  -415
  -435
  -457
  -479
  -503
  -528
  -553
  -581
Free cash flow, $m
  -34
  -49
  -49
  -48
  -48
  -47
  -47
  -46
  -45
  -44
  -43
  -42
  -41
  -41
  -40
  -39
  -38
  -37
  -37
  -36
  -35
  -35
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -34
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  37
  66
  70
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  152
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  79
  26
  26
  24
  23
  21
  20
  18
  16
  14
  12
  10
  7
  5
  3
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  114
  92
  96
  98
  100
  101
  103
  104
  106
  107
  109
  111
  112
  114
  116
  119
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  152
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  80
  43
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  164
  173
  183
  193
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -81
  -74
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -242
  -254
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -23
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -52
  -52
  -52
  -53
  -53
  -53
  -54
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -61
Discount rate, %
 
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -22
  -27
  -26
  -24
  -23
  -21
  -19
  -18
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.7
  97.6
  96.6
  95.8
  95.1
  94.5
  94.0
  93.6
  93.3
  93.0
  92.8
  92.6
  92.6
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5

LTC Properties, Inc. operates as a health care real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. It invests in senior housing and long term healthcare properties, including skilled nursing properties, assisted living properties, independent living properties, and combinations through mortgage loans, property lease transactions, and other investments. Its portfolio consists of 89 skilled nursing properties, 102 assisted living properties, 14 other senior housing properties, 2 schools, and a parcel of land under development. As a REIT, the company would not be subject to federal income tax, if it distributes at least 90% of net taxable income to its stockholders. LTC Properties, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is based in Westlake Village, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  LTC Properties (LTC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.6
Price to Sales 12.4
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -111.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 19.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -48.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 19.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 82.3%
Total Debt to Equity 82.3%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Return On Total Capital 6.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Equity 12.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 89.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 90.4%
Operating Margin 50%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 52.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.8%
Net Profit Margin 52.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 100%

LTC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LTC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $162 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by LTC Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of LTC Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LTC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.6%, whose default value for LTC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of LTC Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of LTC Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LTC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 48.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LTC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for LTC Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for LTC Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LTC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LTC are equal to 609.3%.

Life of production assets of 27.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in LTC Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LTC is equal to -4.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $740 million for LTC Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 39.666 million for LTC Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of LTC Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.


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Stock chart of LTC Financial statements of LTC Annual reports of LTC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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