Intrinsic value of Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services - LTS

Previous Close

$3.17

  Intrinsic Value

$0.97

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  Rating & Target

str. sell

-69%

Previous close

$3.17

 
Intrinsic value

$0.97

 
Up/down potential

-69%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as LTS.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LTS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.91
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,107
  1,129
  1,155
  1,185
  1,218
  1,255
  1,296
  1,340
  1,387
  1,439
  1,494
  1,553
  1,616
  1,683
  1,755
  1,830
  1,911
  1,996
  2,085
  2,180
  2,280
  2,386
  2,498
  2,615
  2,739
  2,869
  3,006
  3,151
  3,303
  3,463
  3,631
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  978
  1,000
  1,025
  1,054
  1,085
  1,120
  1,158
  1,198
  1,242
  1,290
  1,328
  1,382
  1,439
  1,500
  1,565
  1,633
  1,706
  1,783
  1,864
  1,949
  2,040
  2,135
  2,235
  2,341
  2,453
  2,570
  2,693
  2,823
  2,960
  3,104
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  159
  163
  167
  171
  175
  180
  184
  189
  194
  198
  203
  208
  214
  219
  224
  230
  236
  242
  248
  254
  260
  267
  274
  280
  287
  295
  302
  309
  317
  325
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,110
  1,137
  1,163
  1,192
  1,225
  1,260
  1,300
  1,342
  1,387
  1,436
  1,488
  1,531
  1,590
  1,653
  1,719
  1,789
  1,863
  1,942
  2,025
  2,112
  2,203
  2,300
  2,402
  2,509
  2,621
  2,740
  2,865
  2,995
  3,132
  3,277
  3,429
Operating income, $m
  -3
  -7
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -2
  0
  3
  6
  22
  26
  31
  36
  41
  47
  54
  61
  69
  77
  86
  96
  106
  117
  129
  142
  156
  170
  186
  202
EBITDA, $m
  26
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  44
  49
  54
  60
  67
  74
  82
  90
  99
  109
  119
  131
  143
  155
  169
  184
  199
  216
  234
  253
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  3
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
Earnings before tax, $m
  -12
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -2
  13
  16
  20
  24
  28
  33
  38
  44
  50
  57
  64
  72
  81
  90
  100
  110
  122
  134
  147
  161
Tax expense, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  4
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  43
Net income, $m
  -22
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -2
  10
  12
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  32
  36
  41
  47
  53
  59
  66
  73
  81
  89
  98
  107
  117

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  99
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  546
  456
  466
  478
  492
  507
  523
  541
  560
  581
  603
  627
  653
  680
  708
  739
  771
  806
  842
  880
  921
  963
  1,008
  1,056
  1,106
  1,158
  1,214
  1,272
  1,333
  1,398
  1,466
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  447
  456
  466
  478
  492
  507
  523
  541
  560
  581
  603
  627
  653
  680
  708
  739
  771
  806
  842
  880
  921
  963
  1,008
  1,056
  1,106
  1,158
  1,214
  1,272
  1,333
  1,398
  1,466
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.477
  2.476
  2.479
  2.479
  2.476
  2.475
  2.478
  2.477
  2.477
  2.477
  2.478
  2.477
  2.475
  2.475
  2.479
  2.476
  2.479
  2.476
  2.476
  2.477
  2.476
  2.478
  2.478
  2.476
  2.476
  2.478
  2.476
  2.477
  2.478
  2.477
  2.477
Average production assets, $m
  142
  145
  148
  152
  156
  161
  166
  171
  178
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  225
  234
  245
  255
  267
  279
  292
  305
  320
  335
  351
  367
  385
  403
  423
  443
  465
Working capital, $m
  0
  -100
  -103
  -105
  -108
  -112
  -115
  -119
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -255
  -268
  -280
  -294
  -308
  -323
Total debt, $m
  27
  31
  35
  40
  46
  52
  58
  66
  74
  82
  92
  101
  112
  123
  135
  147
  161
  175
  190
  206
  222
  240
  258
  278
  299
  320
  343
  367
  392
  419
  447
Total liabilities, $m
  184
  188
  192
  197
  203
  209
  215
  223
  231
  239
  249
  258
  269
  280
  292
  304
  318
  332
  347
  363
  379
  397
  415
  435
  456
  477
  500
  524
  549
  576
  604
Total equity, $m
  362
  268
  274
  281
  289
  298
  308
  318
  329
  342
  355
  369
  384
  400
  417
  435
  454
  474
  495
  518
  541
  566
  593
  621
  650
  681
  714
  748
  784
  822
  862
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  546
  456
  466
  478
  492
  507
  523
  541
  560
  581
  604
  627
  653
  680
  709
  739
  772
  806
  842
  881
  920
  963
  1,008
  1,056
  1,106
  1,158
  1,214
  1,272
  1,333
  1,398
  1,466
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.075
  0.110
  0.130
  0.140
  0.160
  0.170
  0.190
  0.210
  0.220
  0.240
  0.260
  0.270
  0.290
  0.310
  0.320
  0.340
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -22
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -2
  10
  12
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  32
  36
  41
  47
  53
  59
  66
  73
  81
  89
  98
  107
  117
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  29
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
Funds from operations, $m
  4
  18
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  25
  28
  31
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  55
  61
  67
  73
  80
  87
  95
  104
  113
  122
  133
  144
  155
  168
Change in working capital, $m
  -10
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
Cash from operations, $m
  14
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  36
  40
  44
  48
  53
  58
  63
  69
  75
  82
  89
  97
  106
  115
  124
  135
  146
  157
  170
  183
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -11
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
Free cash flow, $m
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  22
  26
  30
  34
  39
  44
  50
  56
  62
  70
  77
  85
  94
  103
  113
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -8
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  16
  15
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  18
  18
  17
  15
  4
  3
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  7
  19
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  25
  26
  26
  24
  14
  13
  13
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  10
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  22
  24
  25
  27
  31
  35
  40
  45
  50
  56
  62
  68
  75
  83
  91
  100
  109
  119
  130
  141
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -18
  -18
  -17
  -15
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  99
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  105
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  8
  9
  9
  10
  13
  16
  20
  23
  27
  32
  37
  42
  48
  54
  60
  67
  75
  83
  92
  101
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  101
  5
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  4
  4
  4
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.8
  93.4
  90.0
  86.7
  83.5
  80.6
  77.9
  75.4
  73.3
  71.4
  70.9
  70.6
  70.4
  70.4
  70.4
  70.4
  70.4
  70.4
  70.4
  70.4
  70.4
  70.4
  70.4
  70.4
  70.4
  70.4
  70.4
  70.4
  70.4
  70.4

Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services Inc. is a financial services company engaged in independent brokerage and advisory services, investment banking, equity research, institutional sales and trading, asset management services, wholesale life insurance brokerage and trust services. It operates through three segments: the independent brokerage and advisory services segment, the Ladenburg segment and the insurance brokerage segment. The independent brokerage and advisory services segment includes the broker-dealer and investment advisory services provided by its independent broker-dealer subsidiaries to their independent contractor financial advisors and the wealth management services provided by Premier Trust, Inc. The Ladenburg segment includes the investment banking, sales and trading and asset management services, and investment activities. The insurance brokerage segment includes the wholesale insurance brokerage activities provided by Highland Capital Brokerage, Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services (LTS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -28
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 43.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 87.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -12.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 7.5%
Total Debt to Equity 7.5%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Total Capital -5.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Equity -6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 23.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
EBITDA Margin 1.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Operating Margin -0.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Pre-Tax Margin -1.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Net Profit Margin -2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Effective Tax Rate -83.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -101.7%
Payout Ratio -136.4%

LTS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LTS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1107 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LTS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LTS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LTS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $155 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LTS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.9% for Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LTS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LTS are equal to 12.8%.

Life of production assets of 9.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LTS is equal to -8.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $362 million for Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 196.353 million for Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ MVC Capital, Inc. Announces Pricing of Senior Notes   [Nov-08-17 09:51AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ladenburg posts 3Q profit   [07:45AM  Associated Press]
▶ Triad Advisors Welcomes GCG Financial To Platform   [Nov-07-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ MVC Capital, Inc. Announces Offering of Notes   [Nov-06-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Securities America Adds Priority Financial Group   [Oct-19-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Investacorp Welcomes Genesis Wealth Advisor Group, LLC   [Oct-18-17 11:16AM  Business Wire]
▶ South Florida's highest-paid finance executives   [06:15AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Securities America Welcomes Benson Financial Group   [Sep-12-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Investacorp Welcomes Financial Advisor David Charles Miller   [Aug-31-17 09:42AM  Business Wire]
▶ Compass Financial Resources Joins Securities America   [Aug-14-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Ladenburg posts 2Q profit   [Aug-09-17 10:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ Orchid Island Capital, Inc. Announces At-The-Market Program   [Aug-02-17 04:27PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Securities America Announces 2016 Assistant of the Year   [May-18-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Ladenburg reports 1Q loss   [May-09-17 09:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ladenburg Thalmann Sends Annual Letter to Shareholders   [Apr-24-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of LTS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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