Intrinsic value of Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services - LTS

Previous Close

$3.24

  Intrinsic Value

$8.74

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  Rating & Target

str. buy

+170%

Previous close

$3.24

 
Intrinsic value

$8.74

 
Up/down potential

+170%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as LTS.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LTS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.91
  17.50
  16.25
  15.13
  14.11
  13.20
  12.38
  11.64
  10.98
  10.38
  9.84
  9.36
  8.92
  8.53
  8.18
  7.86
  7.57
  7.32
  7.08
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
Revenue, $m
  1,107
  1,301
  1,512
  1,741
  1,986
  2,249
  2,527
  2,821
  3,131
  3,456
  3,796
  4,152
  4,522
  4,908
  5,309
  5,726
  6,160
  6,611
  7,079
  7,566
  8,072
  8,598
  9,146
  9,716
  10,309
  10,927
  11,572
  12,244
  12,945
  13,677
  14,441
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,124
  1,305
  1,500
  1,710
  1,935
  2,173
  2,424
  2,689
  2,967
  3,257
  3,549
  3,865
  4,195
  4,538
  4,895
  5,266
  5,651
  6,051
  6,467
  6,900
  7,350
  7,818
  8,305
  8,812
  9,341
  9,891
  10,466
  11,065
  11,691
  12,344
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  159
  163
  167
  171
  175
  180
  184
  189
  194
  198
  203
  208
  214
  219
  224
  230
  236
  242
  248
  254
  260
  267
  274
  280
  287
  295
  302
  309
  317
  325
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,110
  1,283
  1,468
  1,667
  1,881
  2,110
  2,353
  2,608
  2,878
  3,161
  3,455
  3,752
  4,073
  4,409
  4,757
  5,119
  5,496
  5,887
  6,293
  6,715
  7,154
  7,610
  8,085
  8,579
  9,092
  9,628
  10,186
  10,768
  11,374
  12,008
  12,669
Operating income, $m
  -3
  18
  44
  73
  105
  139
  175
  213
  253
  296
  340
  399
  448
  499
  552
  607
  664
  724
  786
  851
  918
  988
  1,061
  1,137
  1,217
  1,299
  1,386
  1,476
  1,570
  1,669
  1,772
EBITDA, $m
  26
  48
  78
  110
  145
  182
  222
  265
  309
  356
  406
  457
  511
  567
  626
  687
  750
  816
  885
  956
  1,030
  1,108
  1,188
  1,272
  1,360
  1,451
  1,547
  1,646
  1,750
  1,859
  1,973
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  3
  6
  9
  13
  17
  21
  26
  31
  36
  41
  47
  53
  59
  65
  72
  79
  86
  93
  101
  109
  117
  126
  135
  144
  154
  164
  175
  186
  198
  210
Earnings before tax, $m
  -12
  15
  38
  64
  92
  122
  153
  187
  222
  260
  299
  352
  395
  440
  487
  535
  586
  638
  693
  750
  809
  871
  935
  1,002
  1,072
  1,145
  1,221
  1,301
  1,384
  1,471
  1,562
Tax expense, $m
  10
  4
  10
  17
  25
  33
  41
  50
  60
  70
  81
  95
  107
  119
  131
  144
  158
  172
  187
  202
  218
  235
  252
  271
  289
  309
  330
  351
  374
  397
  422
Net income, $m
  -22
  11
  28
  47
  67
  89
  112
  136
  162
  190
  218
  257
  289
  321
  355
  391
  427
  466
  506
  547
  591
  636
  683
  732
  783
  836
  892
  950
  1,010
  1,074
  1,140

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  99
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  546
  525
  610
  703
  802
  908
  1,020
  1,139
  1,264
  1,395
  1,533
  1,676
  1,826
  1,981
  2,143
  2,312
  2,487
  2,669
  2,858
  3,054
  3,259
  3,471
  3,692
  3,922
  4,162
  4,411
  4,672
  4,943
  5,226
  5,522
  5,830
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  447
  525
  610
  703
  802
  908
  1,020
  1,139
  1,264
  1,395
  1,533
  1,676
  1,826
  1,981
  2,143
  2,312
  2,487
  2,669
  2,858
  3,054
  3,259
  3,471
  3,692
  3,922
  4,162
  4,411
  4,672
  4,943
  5,226
  5,522
  5,830
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.477
  2.478
  2.479
  2.477
  2.476
  2.477
  2.477
  2.477
  2.477
  2.477
  2.476
  2.477
  2.476
  2.478
  2.477
  2.477
  2.477
  2.477
  2.477
  2.477
  2.477
  2.477
  2.477
  2.477
  2.477
  2.477
  2.477
  2.477
  2.477
  2.477
  2.477
Average production assets, $m
  142
  166
  194
  223
  254
  288
  323
  361
  401
  442
  486
  531
  579
  628
  680
  733
  788
  846
  906
  968
  1,033
  1,101
  1,171
  1,244
  1,320
  1,399
  1,481
  1,567
  1,657
  1,751
  1,848
Working capital, $m
  0
  -116
  -135
  -155
  -177
  -200
  -225
  -251
  -279
  -308
  -338
  -369
  -402
  -437
  -473
  -510
  -548
  -588
  -630
  -673
  -718
  -765
  -814
  -865
  -917
  -973
  -1,030
  -1,090
  -1,152
  -1,217
  -1,285
Total debt, $m
  27
  59
  95
  133
  173
  217
  263
  312
  364
  418
  474
  534
  595
  659
  726
  795
  868
  943
  1,020
  1,101
  1,186
  1,273
  1,364
  1,459
  1,558
  1,661
  1,768
  1,879
  1,996
  2,118
  2,245
Total liabilities, $m
  184
  216
  252
  290
  330
  374
  420
  469
  521
  575
  631
  691
  752
  816
  883
  952
  1,025
  1,100
  1,177
  1,258
  1,343
  1,430
  1,521
  1,616
  1,715
  1,818
  1,925
  2,036
  2,153
  2,275
  2,402
Total equity, $m
  362
  309
  359
  413
  472
  534
  600
  670
  743
  820
  901
  986
  1,073
  1,165
  1,260
  1,359
  1,462
  1,569
  1,680
  1,796
  1,916
  2,041
  2,171
  2,306
  2,447
  2,594
  2,747
  2,906
  3,073
  3,247
  3,428
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  546
  525
  611
  703
  802
  908
  1,020
  1,139
  1,264
  1,395
  1,532
  1,677
  1,825
  1,981
  2,143
  2,311
  2,487
  2,669
  2,857
  3,054
  3,259
  3,471
  3,692
  3,922
  4,162
  4,412
  4,672
  4,942
  5,226
  5,522
  5,830
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.075
  0.190
  0.260
  0.320
  0.370
  0.410
  0.440
  0.470
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -22
  11
  28
  47
  67
  89
  112
  136
  162
  190
  218
  257
  289
  321
  355
  391
  427
  466
  506
  547
  591
  636
  683
  732
  783
  836
  892
  950
  1,010
  1,074
  1,140
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  29
  30
  33
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  65
  58
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  112
  120
  127
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  180
  190
  201
Funds from operations, $m
  4
  41
  61
  83
  107
  132
  159
  188
  218
  250
  284
  315
  352
  390
  429
  470
  513
  558
  604
  653
  703
  755
  810
  867
  926
  988
  1,053
  1,120
  1,190
  1,264
  1,341
Change in working capital, $m
  -10
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
Cash from operations, $m
  14
  59
  80
  104
  129
  156
  184
  214
  246
  279
  314
  347
  384
  424
  465
  507
  552
  598
  646
  696
  748
  802
  859
  917
  979
  1,043
  1,110
  1,180
  1,253
  1,329
  1,409
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -105
  -112
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -180
  -190
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -11
  -39
  -45
  -50
  -55
  -62
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -105
  -112
  -119
  -127
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -170
  -179
  -190
  -200
  -211
  -222
  -234
  -247
  -260
  -274
  -288
Free cash flow, $m
  3
  19
  35
  53
  73
  95
  117
  141
  167
  194
  222
  248
  279
  312
  345
  380
  417
  455
  494
  535
  578
  622
  669
  717
  768
  820
  875
  933
  993
  1,056
  1,121
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -8
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  16
  35
  22
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  7
  67
  57
  46
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  10
  86
  92
  99
  114
  138
  164
  190
  219
  248
  279
  307
  341
  376
  412
  450
  489
  530
  572
  616
  662
  710
  760
  812
  866
  923
  983
  1,045
  1,109
  1,177
  1,248
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  14
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -166
  -174
  -181
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  99
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  139
  42
  45
  56
  76
  98
  121
  145
  171
  198
  223
  253
  284
  317
  351
  386
  423
  461
  501
  542
  585
  630
  677
  726
  776
  830
  885
  943
  1,004
  1,067
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  133
  39
  39
  46
  59
  71
  81
  91
  98
  104
  106
  108
  108
  106
  103
  98
  92
  85
  77
  69
  61
  52
  44
  37
  30
  24
  19
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.3
  89.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9

Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services Inc. is a financial services company engaged in independent brokerage and advisory services, investment banking, equity research, institutional sales and trading, asset management services, wholesale life insurance brokerage and trust services. It operates through three segments: the independent brokerage and advisory services segment, the Ladenburg segment and the insurance brokerage segment. The independent brokerage and advisory services segment includes the broker-dealer and investment advisory services provided by its independent broker-dealer subsidiaries to their independent contractor financial advisors and the wealth management services provided by Premier Trust, Inc. The Ladenburg segment includes the investment banking, sales and trading and asset management services, and investment activities. The insurance brokerage segment includes the wholesale insurance brokerage activities provided by Highland Capital Brokerage, Inc.


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FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services (LTS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -28.6
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 44.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 89.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -12.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 7.5%
Total Debt to Equity 7.5%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Total Capital -5.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Equity -6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 23.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
EBITDA Margin 1.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Operating Margin -0.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Pre-Tax Margin -1.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Net Profit Margin -2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Effective Tax Rate -83.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -101.7%
Payout Ratio -136.4%

LTS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LTS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1107 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LTS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LTS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LTS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $155 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LTS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.9% for Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LTS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LTS are equal to 12.8%.

Life of production assets of 9.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LTS is equal to -8.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $362 million for Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 207.184 million for Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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Financial statements of LTS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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