Intrinsic value of Luby's - LUB

Previous Close

$2.75

  Intrinsic Value

$1.41

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-49%

Previous close

$2.75

 
Intrinsic value

$1.41

 
Up/down potential

-49%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of LUB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.28
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  403
  411
  421
  431
  443
  457
  472
  488
  505
  524
  544
  565
  588
  613
  639
  666
  696
  726
  759
  794
  830
  869
  909
  952
  997
  1,045
  1,095
  1,147
  1,202
  1,261
  1,322
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  412
  421
  432
  444
  458
  473
  489
  506
  525
  545
  566
  589
  614
  640
  667
  697
  728
  760
  795
  831
  870
  911
  953
  999
  1,046
  1,096
  1,149
  1,204
  1,263
  1,324
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  406
  412
  421
  432
  444
  458
  473
  489
  506
  525
  545
  566
  589
  614
  640
  667
  697
  728
  760
  795
  831
  870
  911
  953
  999
  1,046
  1,096
  1,149
  1,204
  1,263
  1,324
Operating income, $m
  -3
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
EBITDA, $m
  19
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  70
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
Earnings before tax, $m
  -5
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
Tax expense, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -10
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  252
  256
  262
  269
  276
  284
  294
  304
  315
  326
  339
  352
  366
  382
  398
  415
  433
  452
  473
  494
  517
  541
  566
  593
  621
  650
  682
  714
  749
  785
  823
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  251
  256
  262
  269
  276
  284
  294
  304
  315
  326
  339
  352
  366
  382
  398
  415
  433
  452
  473
  494
  517
  541
  566
  593
  621
  650
  682
  714
  749
  785
  823
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.606
  1.605
  1.607
  1.602
  1.605
  1.609
  1.605
  1.605
  1.603
  1.607
  1.605
  1.605
  1.607
  1.605
  1.606
  1.605
  1.607
  1.606
  1.605
  1.607
  1.605
  1.606
  1.606
  1.605
  1.605
  1.608
  1.606
  1.606
  1.605
  1.606
  1.606
Average production assets, $m
  219
  223
  228
  234
  240
  248
  256
  264
  274
  284
  295
  306
  319
  332
  346
  361
  377
  394
  411
  430
  450
  471
  493
  516
  540
  566
  593
  622
  652
  683
  716
Working capital, $m
  -26
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -89
Total debt, $m
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  100
  106
  113
  121
  128
  137
  145
  154
  164
  174
  185
  196
  208
  220
  233
Total liabilities, $m
  86
  88
  90
  92
  95
  98
  101
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  149
  155
  162
  170
  177
  186
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
Total equity, $m
  166
  168
  172
  176
  181
  187
  193
  200
  207
  214
  223
  231
  241
  251
  261
  273
  285
  297
  311
  325
  340
  355
  372
  389
  408
  427
  448
  469
  492
  516
  541
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  252
  256
  262
  268
  276
  285
  294
  304
  315
  326
  339
  352
  367
  382
  397
  415
  434
  452
  473
  495
  517
  541
  566
  592
  621
  650
  682
  714
  749
  785
  823
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.223
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -10
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
Funds from operations, $m
  9
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  58
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  14
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
Free cash flow, $m
  1
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  8
  9
  9
  11
  12
  13
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  9
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -3
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.1
  89.9
  84.7
  79.5
  74.3
  69.3
  64.4
  59.7
  55.2
  50.9
  47.0
  43.2
  39.7
  36.4
  33.3
  30.4
  27.8
  25.3
  23.1
  21.0
  19.1
  17.3
  15.7
  14.2
  12.9
  11.7
  10.6
  9.6
  8.6
  7.8

Luby's, Inc., is a multi-branded company operating in the restaurant industry and in the contract food services industry. The Company is managed through three segments: Company-owned restaurants, franchise operations, and Culinary Contract Services (CSS). The company-owned restaurants brands are Luby's Cafeteria, Fuddruckers, and Cheeseburger in Paradise with a couple of non-core restaurant locations under other brand names. As of August 31, 2016, the Company owned and operated 175 restaurants, with 127 in Texas and the remainder in other states. The Company offers franchises for the Fuddruckers brand. As of August 31, 2016, the number of franchised restaurants were 113. Culinary Contract Services consists of contract arrangements to manage food services for clients operating in three lines of business: healthcare, higher education, and corporate dining. As of August 31, 2016, the Company had 24 Culinary Contract Services contracts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Luby's (LUB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -8
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -19.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -10%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -10.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 22.3%
Total Debt to Equity 22.3%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Return On Total Capital -4.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.4%
Return On Equity -5.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.9%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.8%
EBITDA Margin 4.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Operating Margin -0.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Net Profit Margin -2.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Effective Tax Rate -100%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

LUB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LUB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $403 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Luby's. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Luby's. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LUB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LUB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Luby's, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Luby's.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LUB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LUB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for Luby's.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Luby's. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LUB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LUB are equal to 54.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Luby's operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LUB is equal to -6.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $166 million for Luby's - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.119 million for Luby's is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Luby's at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Lubys, Inc. : December 7, 2017   [Dec-07-17 02:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Lubys, Inc. : November 17, 2017   [Nov-17-17 12:19PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Luby's reports 4Q loss   [Nov-08-17 07:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ Are Lubys Incs (LUB) Interest Costs Too High?   [Oct-20-17 08:56AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Lubys, Inc. : September 19, 2017   [Sep-19-17 05:55PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Lubys, Inc. : July 31, 2017   [Jul-31-17 04:51PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Investor Network: Luby's, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Jul-13-17 09:00AM  Accesswire]
▶ Luby's Reports Third Quarter Fiscal 2017 Results   [Jul-12-17 04:12PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Lubys, Inc. : June 12, 2017   [Jun-12-17 02:12PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Lubys, Inc. : May 30, 2017   [May-30-17 12:33PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Lubys, Inc. : May 19, 2017   [May-19-17 01:59PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Lubys, Inc. : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 04:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Lubys, Inc. : April 28, 2017   [Apr-28-17 04:04PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Luby's reports 2Q loss   [Apr-19-17 04:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ Luby's Is Tough to Swallow as a Value Play   [12:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Lubys, Inc. : February 2, 2017   [Feb-02-17 01:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Luby's reports 1Q loss   [04:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Intevac, Inc. (IVAC)?   [08:54AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of LUB
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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