Intrinsic value of lululemon athletica - LULU

Previous Close

$58.20

  Intrinsic Value

$52.97

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-9%

  Value-price divergence*

+15%

Previous close

$58.20

 
Intrinsic value

$52.97

 
Up/down potential

-9%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+15%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LULU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.73
  13.70
  12.83
  12.05
  11.34
  10.71
  10.14
  9.62
  9.16
  8.75
  8.37
  8.03
  7.73
  7.46
  7.21
  6.99
  6.79
  6.61
  6.45
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.95
  5.86
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
Revenue, $m
  2,344
  2,665
  3,007
  3,369
  3,751
  4,153
  4,574
  5,014
  5,474
  5,952
  6,451
  6,969
  7,508
  8,068
  8,649
  9,254
  9,882
  10,536
  11,215
  11,923
  12,659
  13,426
  14,225
  15,058
  15,927
  16,834
  17,781
  18,770
  19,803
  20,883
  22,013
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,185
  2,465
  2,762
  3,075
  3,404
  3,749
  4,109
  4,485
  4,877
  5,285
  5,707
  6,149
  6,607
  7,084
  7,579
  8,093
  8,629
  9,185
  9,764
  10,367
  10,995
  11,650
  12,332
  13,044
  13,787
  14,562
  15,372
  16,218
  17,103
  18,028
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,923
  2,186
  2,466
  2,763
  3,076
  3,405
  3,750
  4,110
  4,486
  4,878
  5,286
  5,708
  6,150
  6,608
  7,085
  7,580
  8,094
  8,631
  9,187
  9,766
  10,369
  10,997
  11,652
  12,334
  13,046
  13,789
  14,564
  15,374
  16,220
  17,105
  18,030
Operating income, $m
  421
  479
  541
  606
  676
  748
  824
  904
  987
  1,074
  1,164
  1,260
  1,358
  1,459
  1,564
  1,674
  1,787
  1,906
  2,029
  2,157
  2,290
  2,429
  2,573
  2,724
  2,881
  3,045
  3,217
  3,396
  3,583
  3,778
  3,983
EBITDA, $m
  509
  569
  643
  720
  802
  888
  978
  1,072
  1,170
  1,273
  1,379
  1,490
  1,605
  1,725
  1,850
  1,979
  2,114
  2,253
  2,399
  2,550
  2,708
  2,872
  3,043
  3,221
  3,407
  3,601
  3,804
  4,015
  4,236
  4,468
  4,709
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  36
  39
  43
  46
  49
  53
  57
  60
  64
  69
  73
  78
  83
Earnings before tax, $m
  423
  479
  539
  603
  671
  742
  816
  894
  975
  1,060
  1,148
  1,242
  1,337
  1,436
  1,539
  1,646
  1,757
  1,872
  1,992
  2,117
  2,247
  2,383
  2,524
  2,671
  2,825
  2,985
  3,152
  3,327
  3,510
  3,701
  3,900
Tax expense, $m
  120
  129
  146
  163
  181
  200
  220
  241
  263
  286
  310
  335
  361
  388
  415
  444
  474
  505
  538
  572
  607
  643
  681
  721
  763
  806
  851
  898
  948
  999
  1,053
Net income, $m
  303
  350
  394
  441
  490
  542
  596
  653
  712
  774
  838
  907
  976
  1,048
  1,123
  1,201
  1,282
  1,367
  1,454
  1,546
  1,641
  1,739
  1,843
  1,950
  2,062
  2,179
  2,301
  2,429
  2,562
  2,701
  2,847

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  735
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,658
  1,049
  1,184
  1,327
  1,477
  1,635
  1,801
  1,974
  2,155
  2,343
  2,540
  2,744
  2,956
  3,176
  3,405
  3,643
  3,891
  4,148
  4,416
  4,694
  4,984
  5,286
  5,600
  5,928
  6,270
  6,628
  7,000
  7,390
  7,797
  8,222
  8,667
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  923
  1,049
  1,184
  1,327
  1,477
  1,635
  1,801
  1,974
  2,155
  2,343
  2,540
  2,744
  2,956
  3,176
  3,405
  3,643
  3,891
  4,148
  4,416
  4,694
  4,984
  5,286
  5,600
  5,928
  6,270
  6,628
  7,000
  7,390
  7,797
  8,222
  8,667
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.540
  2.541
  2.540
  2.539
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
  2.540
Average production assets, $m
  387
  440
  496
  556
  619
  685
  755
  827
  903
  982
  1,064
  1,150
  1,239
  1,331
  1,427
  1,527
  1,631
  1,738
  1,851
  1,967
  2,089
  2,215
  2,347
  2,485
  2,628
  2,778
  2,934
  3,097
  3,268
  3,446
  3,632
Working capital, $m
  922
  213
  241
  270
  300
  332
  366
  401
  438
  476
  516
  558
  601
  645
  692
  740
  791
  843
  897
  954
  1,013
  1,074
  1,138
  1,205
  1,274
  1,347
  1,422
  1,502
  1,584
  1,671
  1,761
Total debt, $m
  0
  41
  84
  130
  179
  230
  284
  340
  398
  459
  522
  588
  657
  728
  802
  879
  959
  1,042
  1,128
  1,218
  1,312
  1,409
  1,511
  1,617
  1,727
  1,843
  1,963
  2,089
  2,220
  2,358
  2,501
Total liabilities, $m
  298
  339
  382
  428
  477
  528
  582
  638
  696
  757
  820
  886
  955
  1,026
  1,100
  1,177
  1,257
  1,340
  1,426
  1,516
  1,610
  1,707
  1,809
  1,915
  2,025
  2,141
  2,261
  2,387
  2,518
  2,656
  2,799
Total equity, $m
  1,360
  710
  801
  898
  1,000
  1,107
  1,219
  1,337
  1,459
  1,587
  1,719
  1,857
  2,001
  2,150
  2,305
  2,466
  2,634
  2,808
  2,989
  3,178
  3,374
  3,578
  3,791
  4,013
  4,245
  4,487
  4,739
  5,003
  5,278
  5,566
  5,867
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,658
  1,049
  1,183
  1,326
  1,477
  1,635
  1,801
  1,975
  2,155
  2,344
  2,539
  2,743
  2,956
  3,176
  3,405
  3,643
  3,891
  4,148
  4,415
  4,694
  4,984
  5,285
  5,600
  5,928
  6,270
  6,628
  7,000
  7,390
  7,796
  8,222
  8,666
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.060
  0.110
  0.150
  0.180
  0.210
  0.230
  0.250
  0.270
  0.290
  0.300
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  303
  350
  394
  441
  490
  542
  596
  653
  712
  774
  838
  907
  976
  1,048
  1,123
  1,201
  1,282
  1,367
  1,454
  1,546
  1,641
  1,739
  1,843
  1,950
  2,062
  2,179
  2,301
  2,429
  2,562
  2,701
  2,847
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  88
  90
  102
  114
  126
  139
  153
  168
  183
  199
  215
  230
  248
  266
  285
  305
  326
  348
  370
  393
  418
  443
  469
  497
  526
  556
  587
  619
  654
  689
  726
Funds from operations, $m
  386
  440
  495
  554
  616
  681
  749
  821
  895
  973
  1,053
  1,137
  1,224
  1,315
  1,409
  1,507
  1,609
  1,714
  1,824
  1,939
  2,058
  2,182
  2,312
  2,447
  2,588
  2,735
  2,888
  3,048
  3,216
  3,391
  3,574
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
Cash from operations, $m
  385
  414
  468
  525
  585
  649
  716
  785
  858
  934
  1,013
  1,095
  1,181
  1,270
  1,362
  1,458
  1,558
  1,662
  1,770
  1,882
  1,999
  2,121
  2,248
  2,380
  2,518
  2,662
  2,812
  2,969
  3,133
  3,304
  3,483
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -77
  -88
  -99
  -111
  -124
  -137
  -151
  -165
  -181
  -196
  -213
  -230
  -248
  -266
  -285
  -305
  -326
  -348
  -370
  -393
  -418
  -443
  -469
  -497
  -526
  -556
  -587
  -619
  -654
  -689
New CAPEX, $m
  -150
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -121
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -178
  -186
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -150
  -130
  -144
  -159
  -174
  -190
  -206
  -224
  -241
  -260
  -278
  -299
  -319
  -340
  -362
  -385
  -409
  -434
  -460
  -487
  -514
  -545
  -575
  -606
  -640
  -676
  -712
  -750
  -790
  -832
  -875
Free cash flow, $m
  235
  284
  324
  366
  411
  459
  509
  562
  617
  675
  735
  797
  862
  930
  1,000
  1,073
  1,149
  1,228
  1,310
  1,396
  1,484
  1,577
  1,673
  1,773
  1,878
  1,987
  2,100
  2,219
  2,343
  2,472
  2,608
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  41
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  144
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -22
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -25
  41
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  144
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  233
  325
  367
  412
  460
  510
  563
  618
  675
  736
  798
  863
  930
  1,001
  1,074
  1,150
  1,229
  1,311
  1,397
  1,486
  1,578
  1,674
  1,775
  1,879
  1,988
  2,102
  2,221
  2,345
  2,474
  2,610
  2,751
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -333
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -196
  -204
  -213
  -222
  -232
  -242
  -252
  -264
  -275
  -288
  -301
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  735
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  975
  276
  316
  358
  403
  450
  501
  553
  608
  665
  725
  787
  852
  919
  989
  1,062
  1,137
  1,216
  1,297
  1,382
  1,470
  1,562
  1,657
  1,757
  1,860
  1,969
  2,081
  2,199
  2,322
  2,450
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  935
  253
  275
  295
  312
  327
  338
  346
  349
  349
  344
  336
  324
  309
  290
  270
  247
  224
  200
  176
  152
  130
  109
  89
  72
  57
  45
  34
  25
  18
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

lululemon athletica inc. is a designer, distributor and retailer of athletic apparel. The Company operates through two segments: Company-operated stores and Direct to consumer. It is also engaged in the sale from outlets, showrooms, sales from temporary locations, sales to wholesale accounts, warehouse sales, and license and supply arrangements. Its direct to consumer segment generates revenue from its lululemon and ivivva e-commerce Websites, www.lululemon.com and www.ivivva.com, and other country and region specific Websites. It offers a range of apparel and accessories for women, men and female youth. The Company's apparel assortment includes items, such as pants, shorts, tops, and jackets designed for healthy lifestyle and athletic activities, such as yoga, running, training, most other sweaty pursuits, and athletic wear for female youth. The Company also offers fitness-related accessories, including an array of items, such as bags, socks, underwear, yoga mats and water bottles.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  lululemon athletica (LULU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.2
Price to Sales 3.6
Price to Book 6.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 36.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 4.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 20.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.8%
Return On Total Capital 25.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
Return On Equity 25.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 51.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.1%
EBITDA Margin 21.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.6%
Operating Margin 18%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 18%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.1%
Net Profit Margin 12.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Effective Tax Rate 28.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

LULU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LULU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2344 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by lululemon athletica. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of lululemon athletica. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LULU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LULU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of lululemon athletica, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of lululemon athletica.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LULU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LULU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for lululemon athletica.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for lululemon athletica. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LULU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LULU are equal to 16.5%.

Life of production assets of 4.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in lululemon athletica operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LULU is equal to 8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1360 million for lululemon athletica - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 137.187 million for lululemon athletica is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of lululemon athletica at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.0 billion.

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▶ Lululemon Earnings Stretch to Another Win   [09:40AM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Lululemon beats Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-31-17 09:27PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of LULU
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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