Intrinsic value of Lamb Weston Holdings - LW

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$45.37

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.36
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
Revenue, $m
  2,994
  3,201
  3,415
  3,639
  3,871
  4,113
  4,365
  4,627
  4,900
  5,185
  5,483
  5,793
  6,117
  6,456
  6,810
  7,180
  7,567
  7,972
  8,396
  8,840
  9,305
  9,791
  10,301
  10,836
  11,396
  11,983
  12,598
  13,244
  13,921
  14,630
  15,375
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,780
  2,966
  3,159
  3,360
  3,569
  3,787
  4,013
  4,250
  4,496
  4,753
  5,008
  5,289
  5,582
  5,888
  6,208
  6,542
  6,892
  7,259
  7,642
  8,044
  8,465
  8,906
  9,368
  9,852
  10,359
  10,892
  11,450
  12,035
  12,648
  13,292
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,618
  2,780
  2,966
  3,159
  3,360
  3,569
  3,787
  4,013
  4,250
  4,496
  4,753
  5,008
  5,289
  5,582
  5,888
  6,208
  6,542
  6,892
  7,259
  7,642
  8,044
  8,465
  8,906
  9,368
  9,852
  10,359
  10,892
  11,450
  12,035
  12,648
  13,292
Operating income, $m
  376
  420
  449
  480
  511
  544
  578
  613
  650
  689
  729
  785
  829
  875
  923
  973
  1,025
  1,080
  1,137
  1,198
  1,261
  1,327
  1,396
  1,468
  1,544
  1,623
  1,707
  1,794
  1,886
  1,982
  2,083
EBITDA, $m
  472
  524
  560
  596
  634
  674
  715
  758
  803
  850
  899
  949
  1,003
  1,058
  1,116
  1,177
  1,240
  1,306
  1,376
  1,449
  1,525
  1,605
  1,688
  1,776
  1,867
  1,964
  2,065
  2,170
  2,281
  2,398
  2,520
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  5
  7
  9
  12
  14
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  113
  121
  128
Earnings before tax, $m
  367
  415
  442
  470
  499
  530
  561
  594
  628
  664
  701
  754
  794
  837
  881
  928
  976
  1,027
  1,080
  1,136
  1,194
  1,255
  1,319
  1,386
  1,456
  1,530
  1,607
  1,688
  1,772
  1,861
  1,955
Tax expense, $m
  144
  112
  119
  127
  135
  143
  152
  160
  170
  179
  189
  204
  214
  226
  238
  250
  264
  277
  292
  307
  322
  339
  356
  374
  393
  413
  434
  456
  479
  503
  528
Net income, $m
  285
  303
  323
  343
  365
  387
  410
  434
  459
  485
  512
  550
  580
  611
  643
  677
  713
  750
  788
  829
  871
  916
  963
  1,012
  1,063
  1,117
  1,173
  1,232
  1,294
  1,359
  1,427

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  36
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,159
  2,270
  2,422
  2,581
  2,745
  2,917
  3,095
  3,281
  3,475
  3,678
  3,889
  4,109
  4,339
  4,579
  4,830
  5,092
  5,367
  5,654
  5,955
  6,270
  6,599
  6,944
  7,306
  7,685
  8,082
  8,498
  8,935
  9,393
  9,873
  10,376
  10,904
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,123
  2,270
  2,422
  2,581
  2,745
  2,917
  3,095
  3,281
  3,475
  3,678
  3,889
  4,109
  4,339
  4,579
  4,830
  5,092
  5,367
  5,654
  5,955
  6,270
  6,599
  6,944
  7,306
  7,685
  8,082
  8,498
  8,935
  9,393
  9,873
  10,376
  10,904
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
Average production assets, $m
  1,063
  1,136
  1,212
  1,292
  1,374
  1,460
  1,549
  1,643
  1,740
  1,841
  1,946
  2,057
  2,172
  2,292
  2,418
  2,549
  2,686
  2,830
  2,981
  3,138
  3,303
  3,476
  3,657
  3,847
  4,046
  4,254
  4,472
  4,702
  4,942
  5,194
  5,458
Working capital, $m
  370
  400
  427
  455
  484
  514
  546
  578
  613
  648
  685
  724
  765
  807
  851
  898
  946
  997
  1,050
  1,105
  1,163
  1,224
  1,288
  1,354
  1,424
  1,498
  1,575
  1,655
  1,740
  1,829
  1,922
Total debt, $m
  143
  157
  209
  262
  318
  377
  437
  501
  567
  635
  707
  782
  860
  942
  1,027
  1,116
  1,210
  1,307
  1,410
  1,517
  1,629
  1,746
  1,869
  1,998
  2,133
  2,274
  2,423
  2,579
  2,742
  2,913
  3,092
Total liabilities, $m
  759
  772
  824
  877
  933
  992
  1,052
  1,116
  1,182
  1,250
  1,322
  1,397
  1,475
  1,557
  1,642
  1,731
  1,825
  1,922
  2,025
  2,132
  2,244
  2,361
  2,484
  2,613
  2,748
  2,889
  3,038
  3,194
  3,357
  3,528
  3,707
Total equity, $m
  1,401
  1,498
  1,599
  1,703
  1,812
  1,925
  2,043
  2,166
  2,294
  2,427
  2,566
  2,712
  2,864
  3,022
  3,188
  3,361
  3,542
  3,732
  3,930
  4,138
  4,355
  4,583
  4,822
  5,072
  5,334
  5,609
  5,897
  6,199
  6,516
  6,848
  7,197
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,160
  2,270
  2,423
  2,580
  2,745
  2,917
  3,095
  3,282
  3,476
  3,677
  3,888
  4,109
  4,339
  4,579
  4,830
  5,092
  5,367
  5,654
  5,955
  6,270
  6,599
  6,944
  7,306
  7,685
  8,082
  8,498
  8,935
  9,393
  9,873
  10,376
  10,904
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.102
  0.100
  0.130
  0.150
  0.180
  0.200
  0.210
  0.230
  0.250
  0.260
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.655
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  285
  303
  323
  343
  365
  387
  410
  434
  459
  485
  512
  550
  580
  611
  643
  677
  713
  750
  788
  829
  871
  916
  963
  1,012
  1,063
  1,117
  1,173
  1,232
  1,294
  1,359
  1,427
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  96
  104
  110
  117
  123
  130
  137
  145
  153
  161
  169
  165
  174
  183
  193
  204
  215
  226
  238
  251
  264
  278
  293
  308
  324
  340
  358
  376
  395
  416
  437
Funds from operations, $m
  390
  408
  433
  460
  488
  517
  547
  579
  611
  646
  681
  715
  754
  794
  837
  881
  927
  976
  1,027
  1,080
  1,136
  1,194
  1,255
  1,319
  1,386
  1,457
  1,531
  1,608
  1,689
  1,774
  1,864
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
Cash from operations, $m
  382
  402
  407
  432
  459
  487
  516
  546
  577
  610
  644
  676
  713
  752
  792
  835
  879
  925
  974
  1,025
  1,078
  1,133
  1,192
  1,253
  1,316
  1,383
  1,454
  1,527
  1,605
  1,686
  1,771
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -238
  -251
  -264
  -278
  -293
  -308
  -324
  -340
  -358
  -376
  -395
  -416
New CAPEX, $m
  -152
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -218
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -264
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -144
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -196
  -206
  -217
  -228
  -240
  -253
  -266
  -280
  -294
  -309
  -324
  -341
  -359
  -376
  -396
  -416
  -437
  -459
  -483
  -507
  -532
  -558
  -587
  -616
  -647
  -680
Free cash flow, $m
  238
  244
  239
  256
  273
  291
  309
  329
  349
  369
  391
  410
  433
  458
  483
  510
  538
  567
  597
  629
  662
  696
  732
  770
  810
  851
  895
  940
  988
  1,038
  1,091
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  12
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  148
  156
  163
  171
  180
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -233
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  148
  156
  163
  171
  180
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  6
  293
  291
  310
  329
  349
  370
  392
  415
  438
  463
  485
  512
  540
  569
  599
  631
  664
  699
  736
  774
  814
  855
  899
  945
  993
  1,043
  1,096
  1,151
  1,209
  1,270
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -43
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -228
  -239
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -302
  -317
  -332
  -349
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  196
  191
  205
  220
  236
  252
  269
  287
  305
  324
  340
  360
  381
  403
  426
  450
  475
  501
  528
  556
  586
  617
  649
  683
  718
  755
  794
  835
  877
  922
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  188
  175
  179
  181
  183
  183
  182
  179
  175
  170
  161
  154
  145
  135
  125
  114
  103
  92
  81
  71
  61
  51
  43
  35
  28
  22
  17
  13
  10
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. produces and markets value-added frozen potato products worldwide. It operates through four segments: Global, Foodservice, Retail, and Other. The company offers frozen potatoes, sweet potatoes, and appetizers under the Lamb Weston brand name, as well as various customer labels. It serves retail and foodservice customers; grocery, mass, club, and specialty retailers; and businesses, independent restaurants, regional chain restaurants, and convenience stores, as well as primary, secondary, and post-secondary educational institutions. The company was founded in 1950 and is based in Eagle, Idaho.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lamb Weston Holdings (LW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.2
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book 4.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 32.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 7.4%
Total Debt to Equity 10.2%
Interest Coverage 62
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.3%
Return On Total Capital 18.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 25%
Return On Equity 20.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.5%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
EBITDA Margin 15.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.9%
Operating Margin 12.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Net Profit Margin 9.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Effective Tax Rate 39.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

LW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2994 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lamb Weston Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Lamb Weston Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lamb Weston Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lamb Weston Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.4% for Lamb Weston Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lamb Weston Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LW are equal to 35.5%.

Life of production assets of 12.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lamb Weston Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LW is equal to 12.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1401 million for Lamb Weston Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 144.931 million for Lamb Weston Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lamb Weston Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Lamb Weston beats 3Q profit forecasts   [08:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ Lamb Weston Holdings Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-23-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] Lamb Weston Tops Views in First Quarterly Report   [09:28AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Conagra: Sizzling!   [Dec-22-16 11:36AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ [$$] ConAgra Revenue Falls As it Cuts Discounting   [08:58AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Lamb Weston Holdings Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-15-16 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ ConAgra Splits Its Menu, but We're Not Hungry   [Dec-09-16 07:00AM  at Morningstar]
Stock chart of LW Financial statements of LW
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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