Intrinsic value of Luxoft Holding - LXFT

Previous Close

$54.60

  Intrinsic Value

$50.03

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-8%

Previous close

$54.60

 
Intrinsic value

$50.03

 
Up/down potential

-8%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of LXFT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.74
  17.40
  16.16
  15.04
  14.04
  13.14
  12.32
  11.59
  10.93
  10.34
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.84
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
Revenue, $m
  786
  923
  1,072
  1,233
  1,406
  1,591
  1,787
  1,994
  2,212
  2,441
  2,680
  2,930
  3,190
  3,462
  3,744
  4,037
  4,342
  4,659
  4,989
  5,331
  5,687
  6,057
  6,442
  6,842
  7,260
  7,695
  8,148
  8,620
  9,114
  9,628
  10,166
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  810
  939
  1,080
  1,230
  1,391
  1,561
  1,741
  1,930
  2,129
  2,337
  2,547
  2,773
  3,009
  3,254
  3,509
  3,774
  4,050
  4,336
  4,634
  4,943
  5,264
  5,599
  5,947
  6,310
  6,688
  7,082
  7,493
  7,922
  8,369
  8,836
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  719
  810
  939
  1,080
  1,230
  1,391
  1,561
  1,741
  1,930
  2,129
  2,337
  2,547
  2,773
  3,009
  3,254
  3,509
  3,774
  4,050
  4,336
  4,634
  4,943
  5,264
  5,599
  5,947
  6,310
  6,688
  7,082
  7,493
  7,922
  8,369
  8,836
Operating income, $m
  67
  113
  132
  154
  176
  200
  226
  253
  282
  312
  343
  383
  417
  453
  490
  528
  568
  609
  652
  697
  744
  792
  843
  895
  950
  1,006
  1,066
  1,128
  1,192
  1,259
  1,330
EBITDA, $m
  102
  150
  174
  200
  229
  259
  290
  324
  360
  397
  436
  476
  519
  563
  608
  656
  706
  757
  811
  866
  924
  984
  1,047
  1,112
  1,180
  1,251
  1,324
  1,401
  1,481
  1,565
  1,652
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
Earnings before tax, $m
  71
  113
  132
  152
  173
  196
  220
  246
  273
  301
  331
  370
  402
  436
  471
  507
  545
  584
  625
  667
  712
  757
  805
  855
  907
  961
  1,017
  1,075
  1,137
  1,200
  1,267
Tax expense, $m
  8
  31
  36
  41
  47
  53
  59
  66
  74
  81
  89
  100
  109
  118
  127
  137
  147
  158
  169
  180
  192
  205
  217
  231
  245
  259
  275
  290
  307
  324
  342
Net income, $m
  63
  82
  96
  111
  126
  143
  161
  180
  199
  220
  242
  270
  294
  318
  344
  370
  398
  426
  456
  487
  519
  553
  588
  624
  662
  701
  742
  785
  830
  876
  925

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  110
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  547
  513
  596
  685
  782
  884
  993
  1,108
  1,230
  1,357
  1,490
  1,629
  1,773
  1,924
  2,081
  2,244
  2,414
  2,590
  2,773
  2,963
  3,161
  3,367
  3,581
  3,803
  4,035
  4,277
  4,529
  4,792
  5,066
  5,352
  5,651
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  437
  513
  596
  685
  782
  884
  993
  1,108
  1,230
  1,357
  1,490
  1,629
  1,773
  1,924
  2,081
  2,244
  2,414
  2,590
  2,773
  2,963
  3,161
  3,367
  3,581
  3,803
  4,035
  4,277
  4,529
  4,792
  5,066
  5,352
  5,651
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
  1.800
  1.798
  1.800
  1.800
  1.800
  1.798
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
  1.799
Average production assets, $m
  130
  152
  177
  203
  232
  263
  295
  329
  365
  403
  442
  483
  526
  571
  618
  666
  716
  769
  823
  880
  938
  999
  1,063
  1,129
  1,198
  1,270
  1,344
  1,422
  1,504
  1,589
  1,677
Working capital, $m
  177
  80
  93
  107
  122
  138
  155
  173
  192
  212
  233
  255
  278
  301
  326
  351
  378
  405
  434
  464
  495
  527
  560
  595
  632
  669
  709
  750
  793
  838
  884
Total debt, $m
  1
  28
  58
  91
  126
  163
  203
  244
  289
  335
  383
  434
  487
  541
  599
  658
  720
  784
  850
  920
  992
  1,066
  1,144
  1,225
  1,310
  1,398
  1,490
  1,585
  1,685
  1,789
  1,898
Total liabilities, $m
  160
  187
  217
  250
  285
  322
  362
  403
  448
  494
  542
  593
  646
  700
  758
  817
  879
  943
  1,009
  1,079
  1,151
  1,225
  1,303
  1,384
  1,469
  1,557
  1,649
  1,744
  1,844
  1,948
  2,057
Total equity, $m
  387
  326
  379
  436
  497
  562
  632
  705
  782
  863
  947
  1,036
  1,128
  1,224
  1,324
  1,427
  1,535
  1,647
  1,764
  1,885
  2,010
  2,141
  2,277
  2,419
  2,567
  2,720
  2,880
  3,048
  3,222
  3,404
  3,594
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  547
  513
  596
  686
  782
  884
  994
  1,108
  1,230
  1,357
  1,489
  1,629
  1,774
  1,924
  2,082
  2,244
  2,414
  2,590
  2,773
  2,964
  3,161
  3,366
  3,580
  3,803
  4,036
  4,277
  4,529
  4,792
  5,066
  5,352
  5,651
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.003
  0.080
  0.150
  0.210
  0.250
  0.290
  0.320
  0.350
  0.370
  0.390
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  63
  82
  96
  111
  126
  143
  161
  180
  199
  220
  242
  270
  294
  318
  344
  370
  398
  426
  456
  487
  519
  553
  588
  624
  662
  701
  742
  785
  830
  876
  925
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  35
  37
  42
  47
  52
  58
  64
  71
  78
  85
  93
  93
  101
  110
  119
  128
  138
  148
  158
  169
  180
  192
  204
  217
  230
  244
  259
  274
  289
  306
  323
Funds from operations, $m
  124
  119
  138
  157
  179
  201
  225
  251
  277
  305
  334
  363
  395
  428
  462
  498
  536
  574
  615
  656
  700
  745
  792
  841
  892
  945
  1,001
  1,059
  1,119
  1,182
  1,248
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
Cash from operations, $m
  122
  108
  125
  143
  164
  185
  208
  233
  258
  285
  314
  341
  372
  404
  438
  473
  509
  547
  586
  627
  669
  713
  759
  806
  856
  908
  961
  1,017
  1,076
  1,137
  1,201
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -45
  -50
  -57
  -63
  -70
  -77
  -85
  -93
  -101
  -110
  -119
  -128
  -138
  -148
  -158
  -169
  -180
  -192
  -204
  -217
  -230
  -244
  -259
  -274
  -289
  -306
New CAPEX, $m
  -24
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -106
  -47
  -54
  -61
  -68
  -75
  -82
  -91
  -99
  -108
  -116
  -126
  -136
  -146
  -157
  -167
  -178
  -190
  -202
  -214
  -228
  -241
  -256
  -270
  -286
  -302
  -319
  -337
  -355
  -374
  -395
Free cash flow, $m
  16
  60
  71
  83
  96
  110
  125
  142
  159
  177
  197
  215
  236
  258
  281
  306
  331
  357
  384
  412
  441
  471
  503
  536
  570
  605
  642
  681
  721
  763
  807
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -6
  28
  30
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -14
  28
  30
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  88
  101
  115
  131
  147
  165
  184
  203
  224
  245
  265
  289
  313
  339
  365
  392
  421
  450
  481
  513
  546
  581
  617
  654
  693
  734
  777
  821
  867
  915
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -85
  -48
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -190
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  109
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  149
  48
  58
  70
  82
  96
  110
  126
  143
  161
  177
  197
  217
  239
  261
  285
  309
  334
  360
  387
  415
  445
  475
  507
  540
  574
  609
  646
  685
  725
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  143
  44
  51
  57
  64
  69
  75
  79
  82
  84
  84
  84
  83
  80
  77
  72
  67
  62
  55
  49
  43
  37
  31
  26
  21
  17
  13
  10
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Luxoft Holding, Inc., is a provider of software development services and information technology (IT) solutions to a global client base consisting primarily of large multinational corporations. The Company's software development services consist of custom software development and support, product engineering and testing, and technology consulting. The Company’s solutions are based on its proprietary products and platforms that directly impact its clients' business outcomes and efficiently deliver continuous innovation. The Company develops its solutions and delivers its services from 34 cities with delivery centers worldwide. Its products and platforms include Horizon, SuperCloud, Twister, iStockTrack, TEORA, Populus, AllView, CVNAR and Retail Engagement Suite (RES) in Internet of Things (IoT) space.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Luxoft Holding (LXFT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 4.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 20.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -17.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 110
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.2%
Return On Total Capital 18.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
Return On Equity 18.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.5%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.6%
EBITDA Margin 13.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.7%
Operating Margin 8.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Pre-Tax Margin 9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Net Profit Margin 8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Effective Tax Rate 11.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

LXFT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LXFT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $786 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Luxoft Holding. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Luxoft Holding. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LXFT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LXFT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Luxoft Holding, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Luxoft Holding.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LXFT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LXFT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Luxoft Holding.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Luxoft Holding. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LXFT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LXFT are equal to 16.5%.

Life of production assets of 5.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Luxoft Holding operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LXFT is equal to 8.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $387 million for Luxoft Holding - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.643 million for Luxoft Holding is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Luxoft Holding at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Company Profile for Luxoft   [Nov-24-17 10:10AM  Business Wire]
▶ Why Shares of Luxoft Holding Inc. Jumped Today   [Nov-17-17 12:56PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Luxoft beats Street 2Q forecasts   [Nov-16-17 05:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ Luxoft misses Street 1Q forecasts   [Aug-11-17 08:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ Luxoft Recognized as Global Leader in ADM Services by ISG   [Jul-28-17 08:24AM  Business Wire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for June 14th   [Jun-14-17 10:17AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for June 6th   [Jun-06-17 10:46AM  Zacks]
▶ Luxoft Holding Delivers a Quarterly Win   [May-23-17 06:49PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Luxoft misses 4Q profit forecasts   [May-22-17 06:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Luxoft Holding, Inc. Stock Plunged 27.6% in 2016   [Jan-17-17 08:00AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ [$$] IT Stocks to Play Resurgent Financials   [Jan-09-17 12:18PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Luxoft Named a Top 15 Outsourcing Service Provider by ISG   [Dec-13-16 10:29AM  Business Wire]
▶ UBS Signs a 3-Year Strategic Vendor Contract with Luxoft   [Nov-21-16 04:35PM  Business Wire]
▶ Luxoft Holding Expands Its Reach in a Solid Quarter   [Nov-12-16 07:00AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Why Luxoft Holding Stock Popped Today   [Nov-11-16 04:35PM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of LXFT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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