Intrinsic value of LSB Industries - LXU

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$10.03

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$10.03

 
Intrinsic value

$4.36

 
Up/down potential

-56%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LXU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -14.38
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  375
  726
  743
  762
  783
  807
  833
  862
  892
  925
  961
  999
  1,040
  1,083
  1,129
  1,177
  1,229
  1,283
  1,341
  1,402
  1,467
  1,535
  1,606
  1,682
  1,762
  1,845
  1,934
  2,027
  2,124
  2,227
  2,336
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  675
  691
  709
  729
  751
  775
  801
  830
  861
  894
  929
  967
  1,007
  1,050
  1,095
  1,143
  1,194
  1,247
  1,304
  1,364
  1,427
  1,494
  1,564
  1,638
  1,716
  1,798
  1,885
  1,976
  2,071
  2,172
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  474
  675
  691
  709
  729
  751
  775
  801
  830
  861
  894
  929
  967
  1,007
  1,050
  1,095
  1,143
  1,194
  1,247
  1,304
  1,364
  1,427
  1,494
  1,564
  1,638
  1,716
  1,798
  1,885
  1,976
  2,071
  2,172
Operating income, $m
  -99
  51
  52
  53
  55
  57
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  163
EBITDA, $m
  -35
  93
  95
  98
  100
  103
  107
  110
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  144
  151
  157
  164
  172
  179
  188
  196
  206
  215
  225
  236
  248
  259
  272
  285
  299
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
Earnings before tax, $m
  -130
  33
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
Tax expense, $m
  -42
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Net income, $m
  112
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  60
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,270
  1,259
  1,288
  1,321
  1,358
  1,399
  1,444
  1,493
  1,547
  1,604
  1,666
  1,731
  1,802
  1,876
  1,956
  2,040
  2,130
  2,224
  2,324
  2,430
  2,542
  2,660
  2,784
  2,915
  3,053
  3,198
  3,351
  3,512
  3,682
  3,860
  4,048
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,210
  1,259
  1,288
  1,321
  1,358
  1,399
  1,444
  1,493
  1,547
  1,604
  1,666
  1,731
  1,802
  1,876
  1,956
  2,040
  2,130
  2,224
  2,324
  2,430
  2,542
  2,660
  2,784
  2,915
  3,053
  3,198
  3,351
  3,512
  3,682
  3,860
  4,048
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.310
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
Average production assets, $m
  1,039
  316
  323
  331
  341
  351
  362
  375
  388
  403
  418
  435
  452
  471
  491
  512
  535
  558
  583
  610
  638
  668
  699
  732
  766
  803
  841
  882
  924
  969
  1,016
Working capital, $m
  61
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
Total debt, $m
  428
  513
  531
  550
  572
  597
  623
  653
  684
  718
  755
  794
  835
  880
  927
  977
  1,030
  1,086
  1,145
  1,208
  1,274
  1,344
  1,418
  1,496
  1,577
  1,664
  1,754
  1,850
  1,950
  2,056
  2,167
Total liabilities, $m
  633
  746
  764
  783
  805
  830
  856
  886
  917
  951
  988
  1,027
  1,068
  1,113
  1,160
  1,210
  1,263
  1,319
  1,378
  1,441
  1,507
  1,577
  1,651
  1,729
  1,810
  1,897
  1,987
  2,083
  2,183
  2,289
  2,400
Total equity, $m
  638
  512
  524
  538
  553
  569
  588
  608
  629
  653
  678
  705
  733
  764
  796
  830
  867
  905
  946
  989
  1,035
  1,083
  1,133
  1,186
  1,243
  1,302
  1,364
  1,430
  1,499
  1,571
  1,647
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,271
  1,258
  1,288
  1,321
  1,358
  1,399
  1,444
  1,494
  1,546
  1,604
  1,666
  1,732
  1,801
  1,877
  1,956
  2,040
  2,130
  2,224
  2,324
  2,430
  2,542
  2,660
  2,784
  2,915
  3,053
  3,199
  3,351
  3,513
  3,682
  3,860
  4,047
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.671
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.090
  1.100
  1.110
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
  1.260
  1.270
  1.280
  1.290
  1.290
  1.300
  1.310
  1.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.484
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  112
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  64
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
Funds from operations, $m
  4
  66
  68
  70
  71
  73
  76
  78
  81
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  185
  193
  202
Change in working capital, $m
  28
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
Cash from operations, $m
  -24
  -244
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  136
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  187
  195
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -129
New CAPEX, $m
  -213
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
Cash from investing activities, $m
  152
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -105
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -161
  -168
  -176
Free cash flow, $m
  128
  -292
  17
  17
  17
  16
  16
  16
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -101
  14
  17
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -72
  190
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -188
  204
  17
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -59
  -277
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -39
  -9
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  96
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
Discount rate, %
 
  7.70
  8.09
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.83
  10.32
  10.83
  11.38
  11.95
  12.54
  13.17
  13.83
  14.52
  15.25
  16.01
  16.81
  17.65
  18.53
  19.46
  20.43
  21.45
  22.52
  23.65
  24.83
  26.07
  27.38
  28.75
  30.18
  31.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  20
  18
  17
  15
  14
  12
  11
  10
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9

LSB Industries, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells chemical products, water source and geothermal heat pumps, and air handling products in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Chemical Business and Climate Control Business. The Chemical Business segment manufactures and sells nitrogen-based chemical products, including ammonia, fertilizer grade ammonium nitrate (AN), urea ammonia nitrate, and AN ammonia solution for agricultural applications; high purity and commercial grade ammonia, high purity AN, sulfuric acids, concentrated, blended and regular nitric acid, mixed nitrating acids, carbon dioxide, and diesel exhaust fluid for industrial applications; and industrial grade AN and solutions for the mining industry. It offers industrial acids and other chemical products to the polyurethane, paper, fibers, emission control, and electronics industries; and blended and regular nitric acid, and industrial and high purity ammonia for various specialty applications, including the reduction of air emissions from power plants. This segment also offers its agricultural products to farmers, ranchers, fertilizer dealers, and distributors. The Climate Control Business segment manufactures and sells various heating, ventilation, and air conditioning products, such as water source and geothermal heat pumps; hydronic fan coils; and other HVAC products, including large custom air handlers, modular geothermal, air and water cooled chillers, and other products and services for use in commercial/institutional and residential new building construction, renovation of existing buildings, and replacement of existing systems. This segment primarily serves original equipment manufacturers, contractors, and independent sales representatives. The company also sells industrial machinery and related components to machine tool dealers and end users. LSB Industries, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  LSB Industries (LXU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 2.5
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 0.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -11.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -51.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 63.6%
Total Debt to Equity 67.1%
Interest Coverage -4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Return On Total Capital 10.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Equity 18.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -13.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
EBITDA Margin -10.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.8%
Operating Margin -26.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -34.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17%
Net Profit Margin 29.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Effective Tax Rate 32.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.5%
Payout Ratio 7.1%

LXU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LXU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $712 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by LSB Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of LSB Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LXU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.7%, whose default value for LXU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of LSB Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of LSB Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LXU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LXU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for LSB Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for LSB Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LXU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LXU are equal to 43.5%.

Life of production assets of 7.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in LSB Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LXU is equal to 6.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $599 million for LSB Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34.321 million for LSB Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of LSB Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to LSB Industries, Inc. : May 29, 2017   [May-29-17 12:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to LSB Industries, Inc. : May 18, 2017   [May-18-17 01:51PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to LSB Industries, Inc. : May 5, 2017   [May-05-17 04:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ LSB reports 1Q loss   [Apr-24-17 04:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Shares of LSB Industries, Inc. Jumped Today   [Feb-28-17 05:28PM  Motley Fool]
▶ LSB reports 4Q loss   [Feb-27-17 06:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Avoid LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU)?   [Dec-14-16 05:39AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Tontine Asset Managements Bets on Small-Caps Help Offset Losses   [Sep-26-16 07:30AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of LXU Financial statements of LXU Annual reports of LXU
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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