Intrinsic value of Live Nation Entertainment - LYV

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$33.60

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$33.60

 
Intrinsic value

$27.14

 
Up/down potential

-19%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LYV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  15.30
  3.50
  3.65
  3.78
  3.91
  4.02
  4.11
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
Revenue, $m
  8,355
  8,647
  8,963
  9,302
  9,666
  10,054
  10,468
  10,907
  11,375
  11,870
  12,394
  12,949
  13,536
  14,155
  14,809
  15,499
  16,226
  16,992
  17,799
  18,649
  19,543
  20,485
  21,476
  22,518
  23,614
  24,766
  25,978
  27,251
  28,590
  29,997
  31,476
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  8,261
  8,556
  8,873
  9,213
  9,576
  9,963
  10,374
  10,811
  11,274
  11,765
  12,109
  12,657
  13,236
  13,848
  14,493
  15,172
  15,889
  16,644
  17,438
  18,275
  19,155
  20,082
  21,056
  22,081
  23,159
  24,292
  25,483
  26,734
  28,050
  29,433
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  198
  203
  208
  213
  218
  224
  229
  235
  241
  247
  253
  260
  266
  273
  280
  287
  294
  301
  309
  316
  324
  332
  341
  349
  358
  367
  376
  385
  395
  405
Total operating expenses, $m
  8,174
  8,459
  8,759
  9,081
  9,426
  9,794
  10,187
  10,603
  11,046
  11,515
  12,012
  12,362
  12,917
  13,502
  14,121
  14,773
  15,459
  16,183
  16,945
  17,747
  18,591
  19,479
  20,414
  21,397
  22,430
  23,517
  24,659
  25,859
  27,119
  28,445
  29,838
Operating income, $m
  181
  189
  204
  221
  240
  260
  281
  304
  328
  355
  383
  587
  619
  653
  689
  726
  767
  809
  854
  902
  952
  1,006
  1,062
  1,121
  1,184
  1,250
  1,319
  1,393
  1,470
  1,552
  1,638
EBITDA, $m
  584
  585
  609
  634
  662
  692
  724
  758
  795
  834
  875
  919
  966
  1,015
  1,068
  1,124
  1,182
  1,245
  1,310
  1,380
  1,453
  1,530
  1,612
  1,698
  1,789
  1,884
  1,985
  2,091
  2,203
  2,321
  2,445
Interest expense (income), $m
  97
  102
  70
  78
  87
  96
  106
  116
  127
  139
  152
  165
  179
  194
  210
  226
  244
  262
  282
  302
  324
  347
  371
  396
  422
  450
  479
  510
  542
  576
  612
Earnings before tax, $m
  48
  87
  134
  143
  153
  164
  175
  188
  201
  216
  231
  422
  440
  459
  479
  500
  523
  547
  572
  600
  628
  659
  691
  725
  762
  800
  840
  883
  928
  976
  1,026
Tax expense, $m
  28
  24
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  206
  216
  227
  238
  251
  263
  277
Net income, $m
  3
  64
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  137
  147
  157
  169
  308
  321
  335
  349
  365
  382
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  505
  530
  556
  584
  613
  645
  678
  712
  749

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,527
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,764
  5,422
  5,619
  5,832
  6,060
  6,303
  6,563
  6,839
  7,131
  7,442
  7,771
  8,119
  8,486
  8,875
  9,285
  9,717
  10,173
  10,653
  11,159
  11,692
  12,253
  12,843
  13,464
  14,118
  14,805
  15,527
  16,287
  17,086
  17,925
  18,807
  19,734
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,237
  5,422
  5,619
  5,832
  6,060
  6,303
  6,563
  6,839
  7,131
  7,442
  7,771
  8,119
  8,486
  8,875
  9,285
  9,717
  10,173
  10,653
  11,159
  11,692
  12,253
  12,843
  13,464
  14,118
  14,805
  15,527
  16,287
  17,086
  17,925
  18,807
  19,734
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
  1.595
Average production assets, $m
  1,905
  1,972
  2,044
  2,121
  2,204
  2,292
  2,387
  2,487
  2,593
  2,706
  2,826
  2,952
  3,086
  3,227
  3,376
  3,534
  3,699
  3,874
  4,058
  4,252
  4,456
  4,671
  4,896
  5,134
  5,384
  5,647
  5,923
  6,213
  6,519
  6,839
  7,177
Working capital, $m
  214
  -1,306
  -1,353
  -1,405
  -1,460
  -1,518
  -1,581
  -1,647
  -1,718
  -1,792
  -1,872
  -1,955
  -2,044
  -2,137
  -2,236
  -2,340
  -2,450
  -2,566
  -2,688
  -2,816
  -2,951
  -3,093
  -3,243
  -3,400
  -3,566
  -3,740
  -3,923
  -4,115
  -4,317
  -4,530
  -4,753
Total debt, $m
  2,313
  1,554
  1,733
  1,924
  2,129
  2,348
  2,581
  2,830
  3,093
  3,373
  3,669
  3,982
  4,313
  4,662
  5,031
  5,420
  5,831
  6,263
  6,718
  7,198
  7,703
  8,234
  8,793
  9,381
  9,999
  10,650
  11,333
  12,052
  12,807
  13,601
  14,436
Total liabilities, $m
  5,638
  4,879
  5,058
  5,249
  5,454
  5,673
  5,906
  6,155
  6,418
  6,698
  6,994
  7,307
  7,638
  7,987
  8,356
  8,745
  9,156
  9,588
  10,043
  10,523
  11,028
  11,559
  12,118
  12,706
  13,324
  13,975
  14,658
  15,377
  16,132
  16,926
  17,761
Total equity, $m
  1,126
  542
  562
  583
  606
  630
  656
  684
  713
  744
  777
  812
  849
  887
  928
  972
  1,017
  1,065
  1,116
  1,169
  1,225
  1,284
  1,346
  1,412
  1,480
  1,553
  1,629
  1,709
  1,792
  1,881
  1,973
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,764
  5,421
  5,620
  5,832
  6,060
  6,303
  6,562
  6,839
  7,131
  7,442
  7,771
  8,119
  8,487
  8,874
  9,284
  9,717
  10,173
  10,653
  11,159
  11,692
  12,253
  12,843
  13,464
  14,118
  14,804
  15,528
  16,287
  17,086
  17,924
  18,807
  19,734
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.054
  2.870
  3.080
  3.300
  3.510
  3.730
  3.930
  4.140
  4.340
  4.530
  4.720
  4.900
  5.080
  5.250
  5.420
  5.580
  5.730
  5.880
  6.020
  6.160
  6.290
  6.410
  6.530
  6.640
  6.750
  6.860
  6.960
  7.050
  7.150
  7.230
  7.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.077
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  64
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  137
  147
  157
  169
  308
  321
  335
  349
  365
  382
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  505
  530
  556
  584
  613
  645
  678
  712
  749
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  403
  396
  404
  413
  422
  432
  443
  454
  466
  479
  492
  332
  347
  363
  379
  397
  416
  435
  456
  478
  501
  525
  550
  577
  605
  634
  665
  698
  732
  768
  806
Funds from operations, $m
  679
  460
  502
  518
  534
  552
  571
  591
  613
  636
  661
  640
  668
  697
  729
  762
  797
  835
  874
  915
  959
  1,006
  1,055
  1,106
  1,161
  1,218
  1,279
  1,343
  1,410
  1,481
  1,555
Change in working capital, $m
  82
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -223
Cash from operations, $m
  597
  531
  550
  569
  589
  610
  633
  658
  683
  711
  740
  724
  756
  791
  828
  866
  907
  950
  996
  1,044
  1,094
  1,148
  1,204
  1,264
  1,326
  1,392
  1,462
  1,535
  1,612
  1,693
  1,779
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -214
  -222
  -230
  -238
  -248
  -258
  -268
  -279
  -291
  -304
  -318
  -332
  -347
  -363
  -379
  -397
  -416
  -435
  -456
  -478
  -501
  -525
  -550
  -577
  -605
  -634
  -665
  -698
  -732
  -768
New CAPEX, $m
  -180
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -238
  -250
  -263
  -276
  -290
  -305
  -321
  -337
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -426
  -281
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -337
  -352
  -368
  -386
  -404
  -424
  -445
  -466
  -488
  -512
  -536
  -563
  -591
  -619
  -650
  -682
  -716
  -751
  -788
  -827
  -868
  -910
  -955
  -1,003
  -1,053
  -1,105
Free cash flow, $m
  171
  250
  257
  262
  268
  274
  281
  289
  298
  307
  316
  280
  291
  303
  316
  330
  344
  360
  376
  394
  413
  433
  454
  476
  500
  525
  551
  579
  609
  640
  673
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  238
  -706
  178
  191
  205
  219
  233
  248
  264
  279
  296
  313
  331
  350
  369
  389
  410
  432
  455
  480
  505
  531
  559
  588
  618
  650
  684
  719
  755
  794
  834
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  20
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  99
  -706
  178
  191
  205
  219
  233
  248
  264
  279
  296
  313
  331
  350
  369
  389
  410
  432
  455
  480
  505
  531
  559
  588
  618
  650
  684
  719
  755
  794
  834
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  223
  -455
  435
  453
  473
  493
  515
  537
  561
  586
  612
  593
  622
  653
  685
  719
  755
  792
  832
  874
  918
  964
  1,013
  1,064
  1,118
  1,175
  1,235
  1,298
  1,364
  1,434
  1,508
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  111
  -890
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,474
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  129
  415
  432
  450
  469
  489
  510
  532
  555
  579
  558
  585
  614
  644
  676
  709
  744
  781
  820
  861
  905
  951
  999
  1,049
  1,103
  1,159
  1,218
  1,280
  1,346
  1,415
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  123
  380
  376
  371
  364
  355
  344
  332
  319
  304
  265
  250
  233
  216
  198
  180
  162
  144
  126
  109
  94
  79
  65
  53
  43
  34
  26
  20
  15
  11
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. operates as a live entertainment company. The company operates through Concerts, Sponsorship & Advertising, Ticketing, and Artist Nation segments. The Concerts segment promotes live music events in its owned and/or operated venues, and in rented third-party venues; operates and manages music venues; and produces music festivals and creates associated content. The Sponsorship & Advertising segment sells international, national, and local sponsorships and placement of advertising, including signage, online advertising, and promotional programs, as well as media offerings, such as live streaming and music-related original content; and ads across the company’s distribution network of venues, events, and Websites. This segment also manages the development of strategic sponsorship programs, as well as develops, books, and produces custom events or programs for clients’ specific brands. The Ticketing segment manages the ticketing operations, including providing ticketing software and services to clients, and ticket resale services, as well as offers online access for customers relating to ticket and event information through its primary Websites livenation.com and ticketmaster.com. This segment sells tickets through Websites, mobile applications, ticket outlets, and telephone call centers. The Artist Nation segment provides management and other services to music artists; and creates and sells merchandise for music artists. As of December 31, 2016, the company owned, operated, or leased 98 entertainment venues and 130 other facilities in North America; and 33 entertainment venues and 107 other facilities internationally. The company was formerly known as Live Nation, Inc. and changed its name to Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. in January 2010. Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Beverly Hills, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 2285.6
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 6.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 15.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 29
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 200.7%
Total Debt to Equity 205.4%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Return On Total Capital 0.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Return On Equity 0.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -3%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.4%
EBITDA Margin 6.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Operating Margin 2.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Effective Tax Rate 58.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 140.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

LYV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LYV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8355 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Live Nation Entertainment. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Live Nation Entertainment. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LYV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LYV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Live Nation Entertainment, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Live Nation Entertainment.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LYV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $193 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LYV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for Live Nation Entertainment.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Live Nation Entertainment. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LYV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LYV are equal to 22.8%.

Life of production assets of 8.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Live Nation Entertainment operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LYV is equal to -15.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1126 million for Live Nation Entertainment - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 206.783 million for Live Nation Entertainment is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Live Nation Entertainment at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.9 billion.


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Stock chart of LYV Financial statements of LYV Annual reports of LYV
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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