Intrinsic value of ManTech International Cl A - MANT

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$35.19

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$35.19

 
Intrinsic value

$42.59

 
Up/down potential

+21%

 
Rating

buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MANT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.35
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,602
  1,634
  1,672
  1,715
  1,763
  1,816
  1,875
  1,939
  2,008
  2,082
  2,162
  2,248
  2,339
  2,436
  2,539
  2,649
  2,765
  2,888
  3,018
  3,155
  3,300
  3,453
  3,614
  3,784
  3,964
  4,152
  4,351
  4,560
  4,780
  5,012
  5,255
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,444
  1,475
  1,511
  1,550
  1,595
  1,643
  1,696
  1,753
  1,814
  1,880
  1,855
  1,930
  2,011
  2,096
  2,186
  2,282
  2,383
  2,491
  2,604
  2,724
  2,850
  2,983
  3,123
  3,271
  3,427
  3,591
  3,763
  3,945
  4,136
  4,337
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  98
  101
  103
  106
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  139
  143
  146
  150
  153
  157
  161
  165
  169
  174
  178
  182
  187
  192
  196
  201
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,511
  1,542
  1,576
  1,614
  1,656
  1,704
  1,754
  1,810
  1,870
  1,934
  2,003
  1,981
  2,059
  2,143
  2,232
  2,325
  2,425
  2,529
  2,641
  2,757
  2,881
  3,011
  3,148
  3,292
  3,445
  3,605
  3,773
  3,950
  4,137
  4,332
  4,538
Operating income, $m
  91
  91
  96
  101
  106
  113
  121
  129
  138
  148
  159
  267
  279
  293
  308
  324
  340
  358
  377
  398
  419
  442
  466
  492
  519
  547
  578
  610
  643
  679
  717
EBITDA, $m
  121
  193
  197
  202
  208
  215
  223
  232
  241
  251
  263
  275
  288
  302
  317
  333
  351
  369
  388
  409
  431
  455
  479
  506
  533
  563
  594
  626
  661
  697
  736
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
Earnings before tax, $m
  90
  91
  95
  100
  105
  112
  119
  127
  136
  145
  155
  262
  274
  287
  301
  316
  332
  349
  367
  387
  407
  429
  452
  476
  502
  529
  558
  588
  620
  654
  690
Tax expense, $m
  34
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  135
  143
  151
  159
  167
  177
  186
Net income, $m
  56
  67
  70
  73
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  106
  114
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  243
  255
  268
  282
  297
  313
  330
  347
  366
  386
  407
  429
  453
  478
  504

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  65
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,598
  1,564
  1,600
  1,641
  1,687
  1,738
  1,794
  1,855
  1,921
  1,993
  2,069
  2,151
  2,238
  2,331
  2,430
  2,535
  2,646
  2,763
  2,888
  3,019
  3,158
  3,304
  3,459
  3,621
  3,793
  3,973
  4,164
  4,364
  4,574
  4,796
  5,029
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,533
  1,564
  1,600
  1,641
  1,687
  1,738
  1,794
  1,855
  1,921
  1,993
  2,069
  2,151
  2,238
  2,331
  2,430
  2,535
  2,646
  2,763
  2,888
  3,019
  3,158
  3,304
  3,459
  3,621
  3,793
  3,973
  4,164
  4,364
  4,574
  4,796
  5,029
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
Average production assets, $m
  177
  180
  184
  189
  194
  200
  206
  213
  221
  229
  238
  247
  257
  268
  279
  291
  304
  318
  332
  347
  363
  380
  398
  416
  436
  457
  479
  502
  526
  551
  578
Working capital, $m
  229
  167
  171
  175
  180
  185
  191
  198
  205
  212
  221
  229
  239
  248
  259
  270
  282
  295
  308
  322
  337
  352
  369
  386
  404
  424
  444
  465
  488
  511
  536
Total debt, $m
  0
  7
  15
  25
  35
  47
  60
  74
  90
  106
  124
  143
  163
  185
  208
  232
  258
  285
  314
  344
  377
  411
  446
  484
  524
  566
  610
  656
  705
  757
  811
Total liabilities, $m
  357
  363
  371
  381
  391
  403
  416
  430
  446
  462
  480
  499
  519
  541
  564
  588
  614
  641
  670
  700
  733
  767
  802
  840
  880
  922
  966
  1,012
  1,061
  1,113
  1,167
Total equity, $m
  1,242
  1,201
  1,229
  1,260
  1,296
  1,335
  1,378
  1,425
  1,476
  1,530
  1,589
  1,652
  1,719
  1,790
  1,866
  1,947
  2,032
  2,122
  2,218
  2,319
  2,425
  2,538
  2,656
  2,781
  2,913
  3,052
  3,198
  3,351
  3,513
  3,683
  3,862
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,599
  1,564
  1,600
  1,641
  1,687
  1,738
  1,794
  1,855
  1,922
  1,992
  2,069
  2,151
  2,238
  2,331
  2,430
  2,535
  2,646
  2,763
  2,888
  3,019
  3,158
  3,305
  3,458
  3,621
  3,793
  3,974
  4,164
  4,363
  4,574
  4,796
  5,029
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  56
  67
  70
  73
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  106
  114
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  243
  255
  268
  282
  297
  313
  330
  347
  366
  386
  407
  429
  453
  478
  504
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  30
  102
  102
  102
  102
  102
  102
  103
  103
  103
  104
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
Funds from operations, $m
  85
  168
  171
  175
  179
  184
  189
  195
  202
  209
  217
  200
  209
  219
  229
  241
  253
  266
  279
  294
  309
  326
  343
  361
  381
  401
  423
  446
  470
  496
  523
Change in working capital, $m
  -11
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
Cash from operations, $m
  96
  166
  167
  170
  174
  178
  183
  189
  195
  202
  209
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  241
  253
  266
  280
  294
  310
  327
  344
  363
  382
  403
  425
  448
  472
  498
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -72
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Free cash flow, $m
  24
  157
  157
  160
  163
  166
  170
  175
  180
  186
  192
  174
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
  296
  312
  329
  347
  366
  386
  407
  429
  453
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  31
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  32
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  56
  164
  166
  169
  173
  178
  183
  189
  195
  203
  210
  193
  202
  211
  221
  232
  244
  257
  270
  284
  299
  315
  332
  350
  369
  389
  410
  432
  456
  481
  507
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -58
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  65
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  205
  138
  138
  138
  139
  140
  142
  145
  148
  151
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  174
  183
  193
  203
  213
  225
  237
  250
  264
  279
  294
  311
  328
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  197
  126
  120
  113
  107
  102
  96
  90
  85
  79
  62
  57
  53
  49
  45
  40
  36
  32
  28
  24
  21
  18
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ManTech International Corporation provides technologies and solutions for mission-critical national security programs worldwide. It offers cyber security solutions and services. The company also designs, develops, integrates, operates, and sustains software applications and systems across defense, intelligence, and federal civilian customers; and provides hardware and software to support the technology infrastructure for specific applications, including IT service management, help desk, data center consolidation, enterprise architecture, mobile computing and device management, network operations and infrastructure, virtualization/cloud computing, network and database administration, enterprise systems development and management, and infrastructure as a service. In addition, it offers professional and technical solutions, as well as support services to national, defense and related intelligence agencies and other classified customers; command-and-control infrastructure, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance platforms and sensors, and data services; and vulnerability assessment, insider threat protection, exposure analysis, secrecy architecture design, lifecycle acquisition program security, foreign disclosure, system security engineering, security awareness and training, comprehensive security support services, and technical certification and accreditation services. Further, the company provides systems engineering services consisting of requirement analysis, development, and management; systems development and integration; enterprise architecture and concept of operations; and systems engineering and technical assistance, as well as supply chain management and logistics services. Additionally, it offers test and evaluation services to a range of defense, intelligence, homeland security, and space customers; training services; and management consulting services. ManTech International Corporation was founded in 1968 and is based in Fairfax, Virginia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ManTech International Cl A (MANT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.3
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 66.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 91
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 4.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Equity 4.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
EBITDA Margin 7.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Operating Margin 5.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Net Profit Margin 3.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Effective Tax Rate 37.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39%
Payout Ratio 57.1%

MANT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MANT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1602 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ManTech International Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ManTech International Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MANT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MANT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ManTech International Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ManTech International Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MANT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $96 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MANT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for ManTech International Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ManTech International Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MANT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MANT are equal to 11%.

Life of production assets of 37.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ManTech International Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MANT is equal to 10.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1242 million for ManTech International Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.695 million for ManTech International Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ManTech International Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ManTech meets 4Q profit forecasts   [05:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ ManTech Acquires Edaptive Systems   [Dec-19-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Selling Mantech International Corp (MANT)   [Dec-12-16 01:10PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ How Greater Washington stocks fared post-election   [Nov-09-16 04:29PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Leidos CEO defends merged company's new, larger scale   [Aug-02-16 09:51AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Government services CEOs even the fired ones see nice bump in pay   [May-09-16 02:05PM  at American City Business Journals]
▶ ManTech tops Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-27-16 06:15PM  AP]
Stock chart of MANT Financial statements of MANT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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