Intrinsic value of ManTech International Cl A - MANT

Previous Close

$37.69

  Intrinsic Value

$48.64

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+29%

  Value-price divergence*

+174%

Previous close

$37.69

 
Intrinsic value

$48.64

 
Up/down potential

+29%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+174%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MANT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.35
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
Revenue, $m
  1,602
  1,713
  1,827
  1,947
  2,071
  2,201
  2,335
  2,476
  2,622
  2,775
  2,934
  3,100
  3,273
  3,455
  3,644
  3,842
  4,049
  4,266
  4,493
  4,730
  4,979
  5,239
  5,512
  5,798
  6,098
  6,412
  6,741
  7,086
  7,448
  7,828
  8,227
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,509
  1,604
  1,702
  1,805
  1,912
  2,023
  2,139
  2,260
  2,385
  2,517
  2,558
  2,702
  2,851
  3,007
  3,171
  3,342
  3,521
  3,708
  3,904
  4,109
  4,324
  4,549
  4,785
  5,032
  5,292
  5,564
  5,849
  6,147
  6,461
  6,790
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  98
  101
  103
  106
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  139
  143
  146
  150
  153
  157
  161
  165
  169
  174
  178
  182
  187
  192
  196
  201
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,511
  1,607
  1,705
  1,805
  1,911
  2,021
  2,134
  2,253
  2,377
  2,505
  2,640
  2,684
  2,831
  2,983
  3,143
  3,310
  3,485
  3,667
  3,858
  4,057
  4,266
  4,485
  4,714
  4,954
  5,206
  5,470
  5,746
  6,036
  6,339
  6,657
  6,991
Operating income, $m
  91
  105
  123
  141
  160
  180
  201
  223
  245
  269
  294
  416
  443
  471
  501
  532
  565
  599
  635
  673
  712
  754
  798
  843
  891
  942
  995
  1,051
  1,109
  1,171
  1,236
EBITDA, $m
  121
  207
  225
  244
  263
  284
  305
  327
  351
  375
  400
  427
  455
  484
  514
  546
  580
  615
  651
  690
  731
  773
  818
  865
  914
  965
  1,020
  1,077
  1,137
  1,200
  1,266
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  37
  40
  43
  45
  48
Earnings before tax, $m
  90
  105
  122
  139
  158
  177
  196
  217
  239
  261
  285
  405
  431
  458
  486
  516
  547
  580
  614
  650
  688
  728
  769
  813
  859
  907
  958
  1,011
  1,067
  1,126
  1,187
Tax expense, $m
  34
  28
  33
  38
  43
  48
  53
  59
  64
  71
  77
  109
  116
  124
  131
  139
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
  196
  208
  220
  232
  245
  259
  273
  288
  304
  321
Net income, $m
  56
  77
  89
  102
  115
  129
  143
  158
  174
  191
  208
  296
  315
  334
  355
  377
  400
  423
  448
  475
  502
  531
  562
  593
  627
  662
  699
  738
  779
  822
  867

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  65
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,598
  1,639
  1,749
  1,863
  1,982
  2,106
  2,235
  2,369
  2,509
  2,655
  2,807
  2,966
  3,132
  3,306
  3,487
  3,677
  3,875
  4,082
  4,299
  4,526
  4,764
  5,014
  5,275
  5,548
  5,835
  6,136
  6,451
  6,781
  7,128
  7,491
  7,872
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,533
  1,639
  1,749
  1,863
  1,982
  2,106
  2,235
  2,369
  2,509
  2,655
  2,807
  2,966
  3,132
  3,306
  3,487
  3,677
  3,875
  4,082
  4,299
  4,526
  4,764
  5,014
  5,275
  5,548
  5,835
  6,136
  6,451
  6,781
  7,128
  7,491
  7,872
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
Average production assets, $m
  177
  188
  201
  214
  228
  242
  257
  272
  288
  305
  323
  341
  360
  380
  401
  423
  445
  469
  494
  520
  548
  576
  606
  638
  671
  705
  742
  779
  819
  861
  905
Working capital, $m
  229
  175
  186
  199
  211
  224
  238
  253
  267
  283
  299
  316
  334
  352
  372
  392
  413
  435
  458
  482
  508
  534
  562
  591
  622
  654
  688
  723
  760
  798
  839
Total debt, $m
  0
  24
  50
  76
  104
  133
  162
  194
  226
  260
  295
  332
  371
  411
  453
  497
  543
  591
  641
  694
  749
  807
  868
  931
  998
  1,067
  1,141
  1,217
  1,298
  1,382
  1,470
Total liabilities, $m
  357
  380
  406
  432
  460
  489
  518
  550
  582
  616
  651
  688
  727
  767
  809
  853
  899
  947
  997
  1,050
  1,105
  1,163
  1,224
  1,287
  1,354
  1,423
  1,497
  1,573
  1,654
  1,738
  1,826
Total equity, $m
  1,242
  1,259
  1,343
  1,431
  1,522
  1,617
  1,716
  1,819
  1,927
  2,039
  2,156
  2,278
  2,406
  2,539
  2,678
  2,824
  2,976
  3,135
  3,302
  3,476
  3,659
  3,850
  4,051
  4,261
  4,481
  4,712
  4,954
  5,208
  5,474
  5,753
  6,046
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,599
  1,639
  1,749
  1,863
  1,982
  2,106
  2,234
  2,369
  2,509
  2,655
  2,807
  2,966
  3,133
  3,306
  3,487
  3,677
  3,875
  4,082
  4,299
  4,526
  4,764
  5,013
  5,275
  5,548
  5,835
  6,135
  6,451
  6,781
  7,128
  7,491
  7,872
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.020
  0.040
  0.050
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  56
  77
  89
  102
  115
  129
  143
  158
  174
  191
  208
  296
  315
  334
  355
  377
  400
  423
  448
  475
  502
  531
  562
  593
  627
  662
  699
  738
  779
  822
  867
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  30
  102
  102
  103
  103
  104
  104
  105
  105
  106
  106
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
Funds from operations, $m
  85
  179
  191
  204
  218
  233
  248
  263
  279
  296
  314
  307
  327
  347
  368
  391
  414
  439
  465
  492
  521
  550
  582
  615
  649
  686
  724
  764
  806
  850
  897
Change in working capital, $m
  -11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
Cash from operations, $m
  96
  167
  180
  192
  206
  219
  234
  249
  265
  281
  298
  290
  309
  329
  349
  371
  393
  417
  442
  468
  495
  524
  554
  586
  619
  654
  690
  729
  769
  812
  856
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -72
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
Free cash flow, $m
  24
  150
  161
  172
  185
  198
  211
  225
  239
  255
  270
  261
  279
  297
  316
  336
  356
  378
  401
  425
  450
  477
  505
  534
  565
  597
  631
  666
  703
  743
  784
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  63
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  31
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  32
  29
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  63
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  56
  179
  186
  199
  212
  226
  241
  256
  272
  288
  306
  298
  317
  337
  358
  380
  402
  426
  452
  478
  506
  535
  565
  597
  631
  666
  704
  743
  784
  827
  872
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -58
  -82
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -191
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -254
  -266
  -279
  -293
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  65
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  163
  102
  111
  121
  131
  142
  153
  164
  176
  189
  176
  190
  204
  219
  234
  250
  267
  285
  303
  323
  343
  365
  387
  411
  436
  462
  489
  518
  548
  579
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  156
  93
  97
  100
  102
  103
  103
  103
  101
  99
  84
  81
  77
  73
  69
  64
  58
  52
  47
  41
  36
  30
  25
  21
  17
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6

ManTech International Corporation provides technologies and solutions for mission-critical national security programs worldwide. It offers cyber security solutions and services. The company also designs, develops, integrates, operates, and sustains software applications and systems across defense, intelligence, and federal civilian customers; and provides hardware and software to support the technology infrastructure for specific applications, including IT service management, help desk, data center consolidation, enterprise architecture, mobile computing and device management, network operations and infrastructure, virtualization/cloud computing, network and database administration, enterprise systems development and management, and infrastructure as a service. In addition, it offers professional and technical solutions, as well as support services to national, defense and related intelligence agencies and other classified customers; command-and-control infrastructure, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance platforms and sensors, and data services; and vulnerability assessment, insider threat protection, exposure analysis, secrecy architecture design, lifecycle acquisition program security, foreign disclosure, system security engineering, security awareness and training, comprehensive security support services, and technical certification and accreditation services. Further, the company provides systems engineering services consisting of requirement analysis, development, and management; systems development and integration; enterprise architecture and concept of operations; and systems engineering and technical assistance, as well as supply chain management and logistics services. Additionally, it offers test and evaluation services to a range of defense, intelligence, homeland security, and space customers; training services; and management consulting services. ManTech International Corporation was founded in 1968 and is based in Fairfax, Virginia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ManTech International Cl A (MANT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.1
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 17
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 66.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 91
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 4.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Equity 4.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
EBITDA Margin 7.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Operating Margin 5.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Net Profit Margin 3.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Effective Tax Rate 37.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39%
Payout Ratio 57.1%

MANT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MANT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1602 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ManTech International Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ManTech International Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MANT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MANT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ManTech International Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ManTech International Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MANT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $96 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MANT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for ManTech International Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ManTech International Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MANT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MANT are equal to 11%.

Life of production assets of 37.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ManTech International Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MANT is equal to 10.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1242 million for ManTech International Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.566 million for ManTech International Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ManTech International Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ManTech beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-04-17 01:56AM  Associated Press]
▶ ManTech Wins $200 Million DARPA STO Multi-Year IDIQ Award   [Aug-01-17 08:14AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 5 Dependable Tech Stocks in a Volatile Industry   [Jun-15-17 03:32PM  Zacks]
▶ The 3 Best Dividend Stocks in Cybersecurity   [May-16-17 04:42PM  Motley Fool]
▶ ManTech beats Street 1Q forecasts   [May-03-17 05:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ These Greater Washington companies may be most affected by Trump's tax reform   [Apr-26-17 03:39PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ManTech meets 4Q profit forecasts   [05:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ ManTech Acquires Edaptive Systems   [Dec-19-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Selling Mantech International Corp (MANT)   [Dec-12-16 01:10PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ How Greater Washington stocks fared post-election   [Nov-09-16 04:29PM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of MANT Financial statements of MANT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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