Intrinsic value of Marathon Patent Group - MARA

Previous Close

$0.50

  Intrinsic Value

$0.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

Previous close

$0.50

 
Intrinsic value

$0.09

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MARA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  94.74
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  37
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  10
  12
  15
  19
  24
  28
  34
  40
  46
  53
  61
  69
  77
  86
  96
  106
  116
  127
  138
  150
  163
  175
  189
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  10
  12
  15
  19
  24
  28
  34
  40
  46
  53
  61
  69
  77
  86
  96
  106
  116
  127
  138
  150
  163
  175
  189
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
Total operating expenses, $m
  52
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  36
  41
  45
  52
  58
  64
  72
  80
  89
  97
  107
  117
  127
  138
  149
  161
  173
  187
  199
  214
Operating income, $m
  -16
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
EBITDA, $m
  -9
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  11
  13
  17
  20
  24
  28
  33
  38
  44
  49
  56
  62
  69
  76
  84
  92
  100
  109
  118
  127
Earnings before tax, $m
  -17
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -90
  -98
  -106
  -115
  -123
  -133
  -142
  -152
Tax expense, $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -29
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -90
  -98
  -106
  -115
  -123
  -133
  -142
  -152

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  18
  5
  8
  12
  17
  24
  33
  44
  57
  74
  93
  116
  142
  171
  203
  239
  278
  320
  365
  414
  465
  520
  577
  637
  700
  766
  834
  905
  980
  1,057
  1,137
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  13
  5
  8
  12
  17
  24
  33
  44
  57
  74
  93
  116
  142
  171
  203
  239
  278
  320
  365
  414
  465
  520
  577
  637
  700
  766
  834
  905
  980
  1,057
  1,137
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.846
  0.200
  0.125
  0.167
  0.176
  0.167
  0.152
  0.159
  0.175
  0.162
  0.161
  0.164
  0.169
  0.164
  0.167
  0.167
  0.165
  0.166
  0.167
  0.167
  0.166
  0.165
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.165
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
Average production assets, $m
  19
  3
  4
  6
  9
  12
  17
  23
  30
  39
  49
  61
  74
  89
  106
  125
  145
  168
  191
  217
  244
  272
  302
  333
  366
  401
  437
  474
  513
  553
  595
Working capital, $m
  -14
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -16
  -23
  -31
  -42
  -55
  -71
  -90
  -112
  -137
  -165
  -196
  -230
  -268
  -308
  -352
  -399
  -448
  -501
  -556
  -614
  -675
  -738
  -804
  -873
  -944
  -1,019
  -1,096
Total debt, $m
  19
  0
  3
  6
  11
  17
  25
  35
  48
  62
  80
  100
  123
  150
  179
  211
  246
  284
  325
  368
  415
  464
  515
  569
  626
  685
  747
  811
  878
  947
  1,019
Total liabilities, $m
  27
  5
  7
  10
  15
  21
  29
  39
  52
  66
  84
  104
  127
  154
  183
  215
  250
  288
  329
  372
  419
  468
  519
  573
  630
  689
  751
  815
  882
  951
  1,023
Total equity, $m
  -9
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  12
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  32
  37
  41
  47
  52
  58
  64
  70
  77
  83
  91
  98
  106
  114
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  18
  6
  8
  11
  17
  23
  32
  43
  58
  73
  93
  116
  141
  171
  203
  239
  278
  320
  366
  413
  466
  520
  577
  637
  700
  766
  834
  906
  980
  1,057
  1,137
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -2.111
  0.730
  3.650
  5.420
  6.530
  7.250
  7.730
  8.050
  8.280
  8.440
  8.560
  8.640
  8.710
  8.760
  8.800
  8.830
  8.850
  8.870
  8.890
  8.900
  8.910
  8.920
  8.930
  8.930
  8.940
  8.950
  8.950
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.692
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -29
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -90
  -98
  -106
  -115
  -123
  -133
  -142
  -152
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
Funds from operations, $m
  12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -108
  -115
  -124
  -132
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
Cash from operations, $m
  10
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -55
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
Free cash flow, $m
  6
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -37
  -41
  -46
  -51
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -91
  -99
  -107
  -115
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -8
  -1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  33
  37
  41
  46
  51
  56
  62
  68
  75
  82
  89
  96
  104
  113
  122
  131
  140
  150
  160
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  13
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  30
  34
  39
  43
  49
  56
  63
  70
  78
  86
  94
  103
  112
  121
  131
  141
  150
  161
  172
  184
  195
  207
  219
  232
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  20
  24
  28
  33
  38
  42
  47
  52
  57
  62
  66
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  22
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -46
  -51
  -56
  -62
  -68
  -75
  -82
  -89
  -96
  -104
  -113
  -122
  -131
  -140
  -150
  -160
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -5
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  0
  2
  3
  5
  6
  6
  7
  6
  6
  4
  3
  0
  -2
  -5
  -9
  -13
  -17
  -22
  -27
  -32
  -37
  -43
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -5
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  1.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Marathon Patent Group Inc. (MARA) is engaged in acquiring patents and patent rights from owners or other ventures. The Company monetizes its portfolio of patents and patent rights by entering into license discussions. The Company owns around 378 United States and foreign patents, and patent rights across a range of technologies and markets. The Company owns around 22 patent applications across a range of technologies and markets.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Marathon Patent Group (MARA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.1
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book -0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 0.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 94.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -66.7%
Total Debt to Equity -211.1%
Interest Coverage -8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -78.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -37.4%
Return On Total Capital -118.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -53.5%
Return On Equity -1450%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -517.7%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 48.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.6%
EBITDA Margin -21.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.3%
Operating Margin -40.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -72%
Pre-Tax Margin -45.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -70.3%
Net Profit Margin -78.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -59.1%
Effective Tax Rate -70.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

MARA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MARA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $0.519622 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Marathon Patent Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Marathon Patent Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MARA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MARA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Marathon Patent Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Marathon Patent Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MARA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $13 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MARA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 13.4% for Marathon Patent Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Marathon Patent Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MARA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MARA are equal to 315.4%.

Life of production assets of 240.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Marathon Patent Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MARA is equal to -580.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $7.388121 million for Marathon Patent Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 20.578 million for Marathon Patent Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Marathon Patent Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Bitcoin Crashes Below Key Support Level On This Bad News   [Sep-05-18 04:12PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Marathon Patent Group Regains NASDAQ Compliance   [Aug-21-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Bitcoin Suffers Another Blow As DOJ Targets Price Manipulators   [May-24-18 11:08AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Bitcoin Plunges Ahead Of Blockchain Week; Facebook Eyes Cryptocurrencies   [May-11-18 04:41PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Marathon Appoints Fred Thiel to Board of Directors   [Apr-27-18 10:22AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Bitcoin, Other Cryptocurrencies Slide After Wallet Provider Hacked   [Apr-25-18 05:05PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Bitcoin Reclaims Key Technical Support, Fights For $9,000   [Apr-23-18 10:19AM  Investor's Business Daily]
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▶ Bitcoin Above $8,000; Cryptocurrency Exchange Coinsecure Robbed Of $3 Million   [Apr-13-18 10:59AM  Investor's Business Daily]
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▶ Bitcoin Holds Above $8,000 After Weekend Dip; Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash Climb   [Feb-12-18 11:02AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Rising From The Crypto: Bitcoin Rebounds Despite Dire Warnings   [Feb-07-18 04:59PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Crypto stocks tumble as bitcoin selloff continues   [Jan-17-18 11:55AM  Reuters]
▶ Bitcoin Falls As South Korea Eyes Trading Ban; IBM Goes Blockchain   [Jan-16-18 08:46AM  Investor's Business Daily]
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▶ 3 Small-Cap Blockchain Plays   [Jan-03-18 10:18AM  Investopedia]
▶ Bitcoin Recovers Somewhat While This Coin Shot Up 20,000% In 2017   [Dec-29-17 03:13PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Bitcoin Plunges As South Korea Readies Crackdown On Cryptocurrencies   [Dec-28-17 08:35AM  Investor's Business Daily]
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▶ Bitcoin Falls Sharply; Bitcoin Stocks GBTC, Riot Blockchain, Square Follow   [Dec-13-17 02:22PM  Investor's Business Daily]
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Financial statements of MARA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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