Intrinsic value of Masimo - MASI

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$97.53

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$97.53

 
Intrinsic value

$44.54

 
Up/down potential

-54%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MASI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.32
  10.30
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.80
  5.72
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
Revenue, $m
  695
  767
  841
  920
  1,001
  1,086
  1,174
  1,266
  1,362
  1,461
  1,564
  1,671
  1,782
  1,898
  2,018
  2,144
  2,274
  2,410
  2,552
  2,700
  2,855
  3,016
  3,184
  3,360
  3,543
  3,736
  3,937
  4,147
  4,367
  4,598
  4,839
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  621
  681
  744
  810
  879
  950
  1,024
  1,101
  1,181
  1,264
  1,349
  1,438
  1,532
  1,629
  1,730
  1,836
  1,946
  2,060
  2,179
  2,304
  2,434
  2,570
  2,712
  2,860
  3,015
  3,177
  3,347
  3,525
  3,711
  3,906
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  274
  621
  681
  744
  810
  879
  950
  1,024
  1,101
  1,181
  1,264
  1,349
  1,438
  1,532
  1,629
  1,730
  1,836
  1,946
  2,060
  2,179
  2,304
  2,434
  2,570
  2,712
  2,860
  3,015
  3,177
  3,347
  3,525
  3,711
  3,906
Operating income, $m
  421
  146
  160
  175
  191
  207
  225
  242
  261
  280
  300
  322
  344
  366
  389
  413
  439
  465
  492
  521
  551
  582
  614
  648
  683
  721
  759
  800
  842
  887
  933
EBITDA, $m
  438
  165
  181
  197
  215
  233
  252
  272
  292
  314
  336
  359
  383
  407
  433
  460
  488
  517
  548
  580
  613
  647
  683
  721
  761
  802
  845
  890
  937
  987
  1,039
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
Earnings before tax, $m
  418
  146
  159
  173
  187
  203
  218
  234
  251
  269
  287
  308
  328
  349
  370
  392
  415
  439
  465
  491
  518
  547
  577
  608
  640
  675
  710
  748
  787
  827
  870
Tax expense, $m
  117
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  89
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119
  125
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
  192
  202
  212
  223
  235
Net income, $m
  301
  106
  116
  126
  137
  148
  159
  171
  184
  196
  210
  225
  239
  254
  270
  286
  303
  321
  339
  358
  378
  399
  421
  444
  468
  492
  518
  546
  574
  604
  635

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  306
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  821
  568
  623
  681
  742
  804
  870
  938
  1,009
  1,082
  1,158
  1,238
  1,320
  1,406
  1,495
  1,588
  1,685
  1,786
  1,891
  2,000
  2,114
  2,234
  2,358
  2,489
  2,625
  2,767
  2,916
  3,072
  3,235
  3,406
  3,584
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  515
  568
  623
  681
  742
  804
  870
  938
  1,009
  1,082
  1,158
  1,238
  1,320
  1,406
  1,495
  1,588
  1,685
  1,786
  1,891
  2,000
  2,114
  2,234
  2,358
  2,489
  2,625
  2,767
  2,916
  3,072
  3,235
  3,406
  3,584
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.350
  1.350
  1.350
  1.351
  1.349
  1.351
  1.349
  1.350
  1.350
  1.350
  1.351
  1.350
  1.350
  1.350
  1.350
  1.350
  1.350
  1.349
  1.350
  1.350
  1.351
  1.350
  1.350
  1.350
  1.350
  1.350
  1.350
  1.350
  1.350
  1.350
  1.350
Average production assets, $m
  163
  180
  198
  216
  235
  255
  276
  298
  320
  343
  367
  393
  419
  446
  474
  504
  534
  566
  600
  635
  671
  709
  748
  790
  833
  878
  925
  975
  1,026
  1,080
  1,137
Working capital, $m
  287
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
Total debt, $m
  0
  27
  55
  84
  115
  147
  180
  215
  250
  288
  326
  366
  408
  452
  497
  544
  593
  644
  698
  753
  811
  872
  935
  1,001
  1,070
  1,142
  1,217
  1,296
  1,379
  1,466
  1,556
Total liabilities, $m
  260
  288
  316
  345
  376
  408
  441
  476
  511
  549
  587
  627
  669
  713
  758
  805
  854
  905
  959
  1,014
  1,072
  1,133
  1,196
  1,262
  1,331
  1,403
  1,478
  1,557
  1,640
  1,727
  1,817
Total equity, $m
  560
  280
  307
  336
  366
  397
  429
  462
  497
  533
  571
  610
  651
  693
  737
  783
  831
  880
  932
  986
  1,042
  1,101
  1,163
  1,227
  1,294
  1,364
  1,438
  1,514
  1,595
  1,679
  1,767
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  820
  568
  623
  681
  742
  805
  870
  938
  1,008
  1,082
  1,158
  1,237
  1,320
  1,406
  1,495
  1,588
  1,685
  1,785
  1,891
  2,000
  2,114
  2,234
  2,359
  2,489
  2,625
  2,767
  2,916
  3,071
  3,235
  3,406
  3,584
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.100
  0.180
  0.250
  0.310
  0.370
  0.420
  0.460
  0.500
  0.540
  0.570
  0.600
  0.630
  0.650
  0.670
  0.700
  0.710
  0.730
  0.750
  0.760
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  301
  106
  116
  126
  137
  148
  159
  171
  184
  196
  210
  225
  239
  254
  270
  286
  303
  321
  339
  358
  378
  399
  421
  444
  468
  492
  518
  546
  574
  604
  635
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
Funds from operations, $m
  498
  125
  136
  148
  161
  173
  187
  201
  215
  230
  246
  261
  278
  296
  314
  333
  353
  373
  395
  417
  440
  465
  490
  517
  545
  574
  604
  636
  669
  704
  741
Change in working capital, $m
  81
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  417
  129
  139
  150
  163
  176
  189
  203
  218
  233
  248
  264
  281
  299
  317
  336
  356
  377
  399
  421
  445
  469
  495
  522
  550
  579
  610
  642
  675
  710
  747
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
New CAPEX, $m
  -24
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -25
  -32
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
Free cash flow, $m
  392
  97
  104
  114
  124
  134
  145
  156
  168
  180
  193
  205
  219
  233
  248
  263
  279
  295
  313
  331
  350
  369
  390
  411
  433
  457
  481
  507
  533
  561
  590
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -185
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -31
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -217
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  174
  124
  132
  143
  154
  166
  178
  191
  204
  217
  231
  245
  261
  276
  293
  310
  328
  347
  366
  386
  407
  430
  453
  477
  502
  529
  556
  585
  616
  648
  681
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -285
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  306
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  404
  105
  115
  125
  135
  146
  157
  169
  181
  194
  206
  220
  234
  249
  264
  280
  297
  314
  332
  351
  371
  391
  413
  435
  459
  483
  509
  535
  564
  593
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  387
  96
  100
  103
  105
  106
  106
  105
  104
  101
  98
  94
  89
  84
  78
  71
  65
  58
  51
  45
  38
  32
  27
  22
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Masimo Corporation, a medical technology company, develops, manufactures, and markets noninvasive monitoring technologies worldwide. The company offers Masimo Signal Extraction Technology (SET) pulse oximetry with measure-through-motion and low-perfusion pulse oximetry monitoring to address the primary limitations of conventional pulse oximetry. It also provides Masimo rainbow SET platform that includes rainbow SET Pulse CO-Oximetry products that noninvasively monitor hemoglobin species, including oxygen saturation, pulse rate, perfusion index, pleth variability index, and respiration rate from the pleth; noninvasively monitor hemoglobin concentration, and carboxyhemoglobin and methemoglobin saturation; monitor arterial oxygen saturation and acoustic respiration rate; and calculates oxygen content and oxygen reserve index. In addition, the company offers SedLine brain function monitoring technology to measure the brain’s electrical activity by detecting EEG signals; capnography and gas monitoring products comprising external plug-in-and-measure capnography and gas analyzers, integrated modules, and handheld capnograph and capnometer devices; and O3 regional oximetry for tissue oxygen saturation measurement. Further, it provides Patient SafetyNet, a surveillance, remote monitoring, and clinician notification solution; MyView, a wireless presence-detection system; and connectivity devices. The company provides its products directly, as well as through distributors and original equipment manufacturers partners to hospitals, emergency medical service providers, physician offices, veterinarians, long term care facilities, and consumers. Masimo Corporation was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Masimo (MASI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.3
Price to Sales 7
Price to Book 8.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -56.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 106
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 42.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Return On Total Capital 59%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.3%
Return On Equity 72.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.3%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.2%
EBITDA Margin 63.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.7%
Operating Margin 60.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 60.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32%
Net Profit Margin 43.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Effective Tax Rate 28%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

MASI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MASI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $695 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Masimo. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Masimo. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MASI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MASI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Masimo, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Masimo.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MASI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MASI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.3% for Masimo.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Masimo. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MASI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MASI are equal to 23.5%.

Life of production assets of 10.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Masimo operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MASI is equal to -2.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $560 million for Masimo - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.182 million for Masimo is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Masimo at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.9 billion.


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Stock chart of MASI Financial statements of MASI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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