Intrinsic value of Mattersight - MATR

Previous Close

$2.70

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

-60%

Previous close

$2.70

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-60%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MATR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.00
  22.20
  20.48
  18.93
  17.54
  16.28
  15.16
  14.14
  13.23
  12.40
  11.66
  11.00
  10.40
  9.86
  9.37
  8.93
  8.54
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
Revenue, $m
  42
  51
  62
  74
  86
  101
  116
  132
  150
  168
  188
  208
  230
  253
  276
  301
  327
  354
  381
  410
  440
  472
  504
  538
  573
  609
  647
  687
  728
  771
  816
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  71
  85
  101
  119
  139
  160
  182
  206
  232
  259
  287
  317
  348
  381
  415
  451
  488
  526
  566
  607
  650
  695
  742
  790
  840
  893
  947
  1,004
  1,063
  1,125
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  61
  71
  85
  101
  119
  139
  160
  182
  206
  232
  259
  287
  317
  348
  381
  415
  451
  488
  526
  566
  607
  650
  695
  742
  790
  840
  893
  947
  1,004
  1,063
  1,125
Operating income, $m
  -19
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -57
  -64
  -71
  -79
  -87
  -96
  -105
  -114
  -124
  -134
  -144
  -155
  -167
  -179
  -191
  -204
  -217
  -231
  -245
  -260
  -276
  -292
  -309
EBITDA, $m
  -13
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -37
  -43
  -48
  -54
  -61
  -67
  -75
  -82
  -90
  -98
  -106
  -115
  -124
  -133
  -143
  -153
  -163
  -174
  -186
  -197
  -210
  -222
  -236
  -250
  -264
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
Earnings before tax, $m
  -21
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -35
  -41
  -47
  -54
  -61
  -69
  -77
  -86
  -95
  -105
  -115
  -125
  -136
  -147
  -159
  -171
  -184
  -197
  -211
  -225
  -240
  -255
  -271
  -288
  -305
  -323
  -342
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -21
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -35
  -41
  -47
  -54
  -61
  -69
  -77
  -86
  -95
  -105
  -115
  -125
  -136
  -147
  -159
  -171
  -184
  -197
  -211
  -225
  -240
  -255
  -271
  -288
  -305
  -323
  -342

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  46
  40
  49
  58
  68
  79
  91
  104
  118
  132
  147
  164
  181
  199
  217
  237
  257
  278
  300
  322
  346
  371
  396
  423
  450
  479
  509
  540
  572
  606
  641
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  33
  40
  49
  58
  68
  79
  91
  104
  118
  132
  147
  164
  181
  199
  217
  237
  257
  278
  300
  322
  346
  371
  396
  423
  450
  479
  509
  540
  572
  606
  641
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.273
  1.275
  1.265
  1.276
  1.265
  1.278
  1.275
  1.269
  1.271
  1.273
  1.279
  1.268
  1.271
  1.271
  1.272
  1.270
  1.272
  1.273
  1.270
  1.273
  1.272
  1.272
  1.273
  1.272
  1.273
  1.271
  1.271
  1.272
  1.273
  1.272
  1.273
Average production assets, $m
  12
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  32
  36
  41
  46
  51
  57
  63
  69
  76
  83
  90
  97
  105
  112
  121
  129
  138
  147
  157
  167
  177
  188
  200
  211
  224
Working capital, $m
  11
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  19
  20
Total debt, $m
  25
  16
  24
  32
  41
  51
  62
  73
  86
  99
  113
  127
  143
  159
  175
  193
  211
  230
  250
  270
  291
  313
  336
  360
  385
  411
  438
  466
  495
  525
  557
Total liabilities, $m
  44
  36
  44
  52
  61
  71
  82
  93
  106
  119
  133
  147
  163
  179
  195
  213
  231
  250
  270
  290
  311
  333
  356
  380
  405
  431
  458
  486
  515
  545
  577
Total equity, $m
  1
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  45
  40
  49
  58
  68
  79
  91
  103
  118
  132
  148
  163
  181
  199
  217
  237
  257
  278
  300
  322
  346
  370
  396
  422
  450
  479
  509
  540
  572
  606
  641
Debt-to-equity ratio
  25.000
  4.040
  4.880
  5.540
  6.050
  6.470
  6.800
  7.070
  7.300
  7.490
  7.640
  7.780
  7.890
  7.990
  8.080
  8.150
  8.220
  8.280
  8.330
  8.380
  8.420
  8.460
  8.490
  8.530
  8.560
  8.580
  8.610
  8.630
  8.650
  8.670
  8.690
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.333
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -21
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -35
  -41
  -47
  -54
  -61
  -69
  -77
  -86
  -95
  -105
  -115
  -125
  -136
  -147
  -159
  -171
  -184
  -197
  -211
  -225
  -240
  -255
  -271
  -288
  -305
  -323
  -342
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
Funds from operations, $m
  -27
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -30
  -35
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -60
  -67
  -75
  -83
  -91
  -100
  -109
  -118
  -128
  -138
  -149
  -160
  -171
  -183
  -195
  -208
  -222
  -236
  -250
  -265
  -281
  -297
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  -18
  -18
  -21
  -26
  -30
  -35
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -60
  -68
  -75
  -83
  -91
  -100
  -109
  -119
  -128
  -139
  -149
  -160
  -172
  -184
  -196
  -209
  -222
  -236
  -251
  -266
  -282
  -298
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
Free cash flow, $m
  -22
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -44
  -51
  -58
  -66
  -74
  -82
  -91
  -100
  -110
  -120
  -131
  -142
  -154
  -166
  -178
  -191
  -205
  -219
  -233
  -248
  -264
  -280
  -297
  -315
  -334
  -353
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  20
  -6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  34
  25
  30
  36
  42
  48
  55
  63
  71
  79
  88
  97
  106
  117
  127
  138
  149
  161
  173
  186
  199
  213
  227
  242
  258
  274
  291
  308
  327
  346
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  19
  28
  32
  38
  45
  52
  59
  67
  75
  84
  93
  103
  112
  122
  134
  144
  156
  168
  181
  193
  207
  221
  236
  251
  267
  284
  301
  319
  337
  357
  378
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -3
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  17
  -34
  -25
  -30
  -36
  -42
  -48
  -55
  -63
  -71
  -79
  -88
  -97
  -106
  -117
  -127
  -138
  -149
  -161
  -173
  -186
  -199
  -213
  -227
  -242
  -258
  -274
  -291
  -308
  -327
  -346
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -19
  -20
  -24
  -29
  -34
  -40
  -46
  -53
  -60
  -68
  -76
  -85
  -94
  -104
  -114
  -124
  -135
  -146
  -158
  -170
  -182
  -196
  -209
  -223
  -238
  -253
  -269
  -286
  -303
  -321
Discount rate, %
 
  9.40
  9.87
  10.36
  10.88
  11.43
  12.00
  12.60
  13.23
  13.89
  14.58
  15.31
  16.08
  16.88
  17.73
  18.61
  19.54
  20.52
  21.54
  22.62
  23.75
  24.94
  26.19
  27.50
  28.87
  30.32
  31.83
  33.42
  35.09
  36.85
  38.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -17
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -19
  -17
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  30.7
  18.9
  11.7
  7.2
  4.5
  2.8
  1.7
  1.1
  0.7
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Mattersight Corporation offers behavioral analytics and provides personality-based software products. The Company uses various applications, including predictive behavioral routing, performance management, quality assurance and predictive analytics (collectively, Behavioral Analytics) to analyze and predict customer behavior based on the language exchanged between agents and customers during brand interactions. The Company operates through the Behavioral Analytics segment. Its multi-channel technology captures the unstructured data of voice interactions (conversations), related customer and employee data, and employee desktop activity, and applies various algorithms against those interactions. Its Behavioral Analytics offerings help its clients to identify optimal customer/employee behavioral pairing for call routing; identify and understand customer personality, and measure customer satisfaction and agent performance on every analyzed call, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Mattersight (MATR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.4
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 71.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -4
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 32%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 2200%
Total Debt to Equity 2500%
Interest Coverage -20
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -46.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -45.1%
Return On Total Capital -82.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -79.1%
Return On Equity -221.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -145.4%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.7%
EBITDA Margin -33.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.5%
Operating Margin -45.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -42%
Pre-Tax Margin -50%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -45.6%
Net Profit Margin -50%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -45.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

MATR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MATR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $42 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Mattersight. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Mattersight. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MATR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 22.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.4%, whose default value for MATR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Mattersight, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Mattersight.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MATR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 138.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MATR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.3% for Mattersight.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Mattersight. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MATR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MATR are equal to 27.4%.

Life of production assets of 2.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Mattersight operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MATR is equal to 2.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1 million for Mattersight - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 30.743 million for Mattersight is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Mattersight at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Mattersight reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 09:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Mattersight Corp. : May 26, 2017   [May-26-17 01:16PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Mattersight to Attend Craig-Hallum Investor Conference   [May-15-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ UPDATE -- Mattersight Announces First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-09-17 05:35PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Mattersight reports 1Q loss   [04:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Mattersight Corp. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 05:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Mattersight Announces Private Placement   [07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Mattersight to Present at the 29th Annual Roth Conference   [Feb-21-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Mattersight reports 4Q loss   [Feb-08-17 06:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mattersight to Attend Craig-Hallum Investor Conference   [Nov-03-16 04:15PM  Marketwired]
▶ Mattersight Debuts Workstyle 2.0   [Aug-16-16 09:15AM  Marketwired]
▶ Mattersight reports 2Q loss   [05:01PM  AP]
▶ Mattersight Provides Business Update   [04:15PM  Marketwired]
▶ Mattersight Issued New Patent for Predictive Video   [May-17-16 09:15AM  Marketwired]
▶ Mattersight to Attend Craig-Hallum Investor Conference   [May-11-16 04:15PM  Marketwired]
▶ Mattersight reports 1Q loss   [May-04-16 06:08PM  AP]
▶ Mattersight reports 4Q loss   [Feb-10-16 05:06PM  AP]
▶ Mattersight Announces New Hires to Accelerate Growth   [Jan-14-16 04:15PM  Marketwired]
Financial statements of MATR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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