Intrinsic value of Mattersight - MATR

Previous Close

$2.65

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

-68%

Previous close

$2.65

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-68%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MATR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.00
  30.00
  27.50
  25.25
  23.23
  21.40
  19.76
  18.29
  16.96
  15.76
  14.69
  13.72
  12.85
  12.06
  11.35
  10.72
  10.15
  9.63
  9.17
  8.75
  8.38
  8.04
  7.74
  7.46
  7.22
  6.99
  6.79
  6.62
  6.45
  6.31
  6.18
Revenue, $m
  42
  55
  70
  87
  107
  130
  156
  185
  216
  250
  287
  326
  368
  413
  459
  509
  560
  614
  671
  729
  790
  854
  920
  989
  1,060
  1,134
  1,211
  1,291
  1,375
  1,461
  1,552
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  75
  96
  120
  148
  180
  215
  255
  298
  345
  396
  450
  508
  569
  633
  701
  772
  847
  925
  1,005
  1,090
  1,177
  1,268
  1,363
  1,461
  1,564
  1,670
  1,780
  1,895
  2,015
  2,139
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  61
  75
  96
  120
  148
  180
  215
  255
  298
  345
  396
  450
  508
  569
  633
  701
  772
  847
  925
  1,005
  1,090
  1,177
  1,268
  1,363
  1,461
  1,564
  1,670
  1,780
  1,895
  2,015
  2,139
Operating income, $m
  -19
  -21
  -26
  -33
  -41
  -49
  -59
  -70
  -82
  -95
  -109
  -124
  -139
  -156
  -174
  -193
  -212
  -233
  -254
  -276
  -299
  -323
  -348
  -374
  -401
  -429
  -459
  -489
  -520
  -553
  -587
EBITDA, $m
  -13
  -19
  -24
  -30
  -37
  -45
  -54
  -64
  -75
  -86
  -99
  -113
  -127
  -142
  -159
  -176
  -193
  -212
  -232
  -252
  -273
  -295
  -318
  -341
  -366
  -392
  -418
  -446
  -475
  -504
  -536
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
Earnings before tax, $m
  -21
  -22
  -28
  -35
  -43
  -53
  -64
  -76
  -89
  -103
  -119
  -135
  -153
  -171
  -191
  -212
  -234
  -256
  -280
  -305
  -330
  -357
  -385
  -414
  -444
  -475
  -508
  -542
  -577
  -613
  -651
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -21
  -22
  -28
  -35
  -43
  -53
  -64
  -76
  -89
  -103
  -119
  -135
  -153
  -171
  -191
  -212
  -234
  -256
  -280
  -305
  -330
  -357
  -385
  -414
  -444
  -475
  -508
  -542
  -577
  -613
  -651

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  46
  43
  55
  68
  84
  102
  123
  145
  170
  197
  225
  256
  289
  324
  361
  400
  440
  483
  527
  573
  621
  671
  723
  777
  833
  891
  951
  1,014
  1,080
  1,148
  1,219
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  33
  43
  55
  68
  84
  102
  123
  145
  170
  197
  225
  256
  289
  324
  361
  400
  440
  483
  527
  573
  621
  671
  723
  777
  833
  891
  951
  1,014
  1,080
  1,148
  1,219
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.273
  1.279
  1.273
  1.279
  1.274
  1.275
  1.268
  1.276
  1.271
  1.269
  1.276
  1.273
  1.273
  1.275
  1.271
  1.273
  1.273
  1.271
  1.273
  1.272
  1.272
  1.273
  1.272
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
Average production assets, $m
  12
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  42
  48
  54
  61
  69
  77
  85
  94
  103
  112
  122
  132
  143
  154
  165
  177
  189
  202
  216
  230
  244
  259
Working capital, $m
  11
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
Total debt, $m
  25
  19
  29
  42
  56
  72
  90
  111
  133
  157
  183
  211
  240
  272
  305
  340
  376
  414
  454
  496
  539
  584
  630
  679
  729
  782
  836
  893
  952
  1,013
  1,077
Total liabilities, $m
  44
  39
  49
  62
  76
  92
  110
  131
  153
  177
  203
  231
  260
  292
  325
  360
  396
  434
  474
  516
  559
  604
  650
  699
  749
  802
  856
  913
  972
  1,033
  1,097
Total equity, $m
  1
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  53
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  83
  89
  95
  101
  108
  115
  122
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  45
  43
  54
  69
  84
  102
  122
  146
  170
  197
  226
  257
  289
  324
  361
  400
  440
  482
  527
  573
  621
  671
  722
  777
  832
  891
  951
  1,014
  1,080
  1,148
  1,219
Debt-to-equity ratio
  25.000
  4.340
  5.340
  6.080
  6.630
  7.050
  7.370
  7.620
  7.820
  7.980
  8.110
  8.220
  8.310
  8.380
  8.450
  8.500
  8.550
  8.590
  8.620
  8.650
  8.680
  8.700
  8.720
  8.740
  8.760
  8.780
  8.790
  8.800
  8.810
  8.830
  8.840
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.333
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -21
  -22
  -28
  -35
  -43
  -53
  -64
  -76
  -89
  -103
  -119
  -135
  -153
  -171
  -191
  -212
  -234
  -256
  -280
  -305
  -330
  -357
  -385
  -414
  -444
  -475
  -508
  -542
  -577
  -613
  -651
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
Funds from operations, $m
  -27
  -20
  -25
  -32
  -40
  -49
  -58
  -69
  -82
  -95
  -109
  -124
  -140
  -158
  -176
  -195
  -215
  -236
  -258
  -280
  -304
  -329
  -354
  -381
  -409
  -437
  -467
  -498
  -531
  -564
  -599
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  -18
  -25
  -26
  -32
  -40
  -49
  -59
  -70
  -82
  -96
  -110
  -125
  -141
  -159
  -177
  -196
  -216
  -237
  -259
  -282
  -306
  -330
  -356
  -383
  -410
  -439
  -469
  -500
  -533
  -567
  -602
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -3
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -22
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -51
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
Free cash flow, $m
  -22
  -28
  -30
  -38
  -46
  -57
  -68
  -80
  -94
  -108
  -124
  -141
  -159
  -178
  -198
  -220
  -242
  -265
  -289
  -314
  -340
  -367
  -396
  -425
  -455
  -487
  -520
  -554
  -590
  -627
  -666
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  20
  -3
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  35
  20
  27
  34
  42
  52
  62
  74
  87
  101
  117
  133
  150
  169
  189
  209
  231
  253
  277
  302
  327
  354
  382
  411
  440
  472
  504
  537
  572
  609
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  19
  32
  31
  39
  48
  58
  70
  82
  96
  111
  127
  145
  163
  181
  202
  224
  245
  269
  293
  318
  345
  372
  401
  431
  461
  492
  526
  561
  596
  633
  673
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -3
  -31
  -19
  -25
  -32
  -40
  -50
  -60
  -72
  -84
  -98
  -113
  -130
  -147
  -165
  -185
  -205
  -227
  -249
  -272
  -297
  -322
  -349
  -376
  -405
  -435
  -465
  -498
  -531
  -566
  -602
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  17
  -13
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  9.40
  9.87
  10.36
  10.88
  11.43
  12.00
  12.60
  13.23
  13.89
  14.58
  15.31
  16.08
  16.88
  17.73
  18.61
  19.54
  20.52
  21.54
  22.62
  23.75
  24.94
  26.19
  27.50
  28.87
  30.32
  31.83
  33.42
  35.09
  36.85
  38.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  33.9
  22.8
  15.3
  10.2
  6.8
  4.5
  3.0
  2.0
  1.3
  0.9
  0.6
  0.4
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Mattersight Corporation provides behavioral analytics services in the United States. The company provides predictive behavioral routing, performance management, quality assurance, predictive analytics, and marketing managed services that analyzes and predicts customer behavior based on the language exchanged between agents and customers during brand interactions to enhance customer satisfaction and retention, employee engagement, and operating efficiency. It serves companies in the healthcare, insurance, financial service, technology, telecommunication, cable, utility, education, hospitality, and government industries. The company was formerly known as eLoyalty Corporation and changed its name to Mattersight Corporation in May 2011. Mattersight Corporation was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Mattersight (MATR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.4
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 70.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -3.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 32%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 2200%
Total Debt to Equity 2500%
Interest Coverage -20
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -46.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -45.1%
Return On Total Capital -82.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -79.1%
Return On Equity -221.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -145.4%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.7%
EBITDA Margin -33.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.5%
Operating Margin -45.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -42%
Pre-Tax Margin -50%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -45.6%
Net Profit Margin -50%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -45.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

MATR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MATR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $42 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Mattersight. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Mattersight. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MATR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 30% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.4%, whose default value for MATR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Mattersight, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Mattersight.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MATR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 138.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MATR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.3% for Mattersight.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Mattersight. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MATR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MATR are equal to 16.7%.

Life of production assets of 1.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Mattersight operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MATR is equal to 2.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1 million for Mattersight - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.203 million for Mattersight is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Mattersight at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Mattersight Corp. : May 26, 2017   [May-26-17 01:16PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Mattersight to Attend Craig-Hallum Investor Conference   [May-15-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ UPDATE -- Mattersight Announces First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-09-17 05:35PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Mattersight reports 1Q loss   [04:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Mattersight Corp. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 05:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Mattersight Announces Private Placement   [07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Mattersight to Present at the 29th Annual Roth Conference   [Feb-21-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Mattersight reports 4Q loss   [Feb-08-17 06:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mattersight to Attend Craig-Hallum Investor Conference   [Nov-03-16 04:15PM  Marketwired]
▶ Mattersight Debuts Workstyle 2.0   [Aug-16-16 09:15AM  Marketwired]
▶ Mattersight reports 2Q loss   [05:01PM  AP]
▶ Mattersight Provides Business Update   [04:15PM  Marketwired]
▶ Mattersight Issued New Patent for Predictive Video   [May-17-16 09:15AM  Marketwired]
▶ Mattersight to Attend Craig-Hallum Investor Conference   [May-11-16 04:15PM  Marketwired]
▶ Mattersight reports 1Q loss   [May-04-16 06:08PM  AP]
▶ Mattersight reports 4Q loss   [Feb-10-16 05:06PM  AP]
▶ Mattersight Announces New Hires to Accelerate Growth   [Jan-14-16 04:15PM  Marketwired]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Control4 Corp (CTRL)?   [Nov-29  01:16AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of MATR Financial statements of MATR Annual reports of MATR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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