Intrinsic value of Marrone Bio Innovations - MBII

Previous Close

$1.06

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$1.06

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MBII stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  40.00
  20.00
  18.50
  17.15
  15.94
  14.84
  13.86
  12.97
  12.17
  11.46
  10.81
  10.23
  9.71
  9.24
  8.81
  8.43
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.03
  6.82
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
  5.71
Revenue, $m
  14
  17
  20
  23
  27
  31
  35
  40
  45
  50
  55
  61
  67
  73
  80
  86
  93
  100
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  160
  170
  180
  191
  202
  214
  226
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  83
  98
  115
  133
  153
  174
  197
  221
  246
  273
  301
  330
  360
  392
  425
  459
  495
  532
  571
  611
  653
  696
  741
  788
  837
  888
  941
  996
  1,054
  1,114
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  38
  83
  98
  115
  133
  153
  174
  197
  221
  246
  273
  301
  330
  360
  392
  425
  459
  495
  532
  571
  611
  653
  696
  741
  788
  837
  888
  941
  996
  1,054
  1,114
Operating income, $m
  -24
  -66
  -78
  -92
  -106
  -122
  -139
  -157
  -176
  -196
  -217
  -240
  -263
  -287
  -313
  -339
  -366
  -395
  -424
  -455
  -487
  -520
  -555
  -591
  -628
  -667
  -708
  -750
  -794
  -840
  -888
EBITDA, $m
  -22
  -64
  -75
  -88
  -102
  -118
  -134
  -151
  -170
  -189
  -210
  -231
  -253
  -277
  -301
  -327
  -353
  -380
  -409
  -439
  -470
  -502
  -535
  -570
  -606
  -643
  -682
  -723
  -765
  -810
  -856
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  6
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
Earnings before tax, $m
  -31
  -72
  -80
  -95
  -110
  -127
  -145
  -164
  -184
  -205
  -228
  -251
  -276
  -301
  -328
  -356
  -385
  -415
  -447
  -479
  -513
  -548
  -585
  -623
  -662
  -704
  -746
  -791
  -838
  -886
  -937
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -31
  -72
  -80
  -95
  -110
  -127
  -145
  -164
  -184
  -205
  -228
  -251
  -276
  -301
  -328
  -356
  -385
  -415
  -447
  -479
  -513
  -548
  -585
  -623
  -662
  -704
  -746
  -791
  -838
  -886
  -937

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  46
  43
  51
  60
  70
  80
  91
  103
  115
  128
  142
  157
  172
  188
  204
  222
  240
  258
  278
  298
  319
  340
  363
  387
  411
  437
  463
  491
  520
  550
  581
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  36
  43
  51
  60
  70
  80
  91
  103
  115
  128
  142
  157
  172
  188
  204
  222
  240
  258
  278
  298
  319
  340
  363
  387
  411
  437
  463
  491
  520
  550
  581
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.389
  0.395
  0.392
  0.383
  0.386
  0.388
  0.385
  0.388
  0.391
  0.391
  0.387
  0.389
  0.390
  0.388
  0.392
  0.387
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.389
  0.389
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.388
  0.389
  0.389
Average production assets, $m
  19
  22
  26
  31
  36
  41
  47
  53
  59
  66
  73
  81
  88
  97
  105
  114
  123
  133
  143
  153
  164
  175
  187
  199
  211
  224
  238
  252
  267
  282
  299
Working capital, $m
  12
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
Total debt, $m
  59
  22
  29
  37
  46
  55
  65
  75
  87
  99
  111
  124
  138
  152
  167
  183
  199
  215
  233
  251
  270
  289
  310
  331
  353
  376
  400
  425
  451
  478
  506
Total liabilities, $m
  76
  39
  46
  54
  63
  72
  82
  92
  104
  116
  128
  141
  155
  169
  184
  200
  216
  232
  250
  268
  287
  306
  327
  348
  370
  393
  417
  442
  468
  495
  523
Total equity, $m
  -30
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  46
  43
  51
  60
  70
  80
  91
  102
  116
  129
  142
  157
  172
  188
  204
  222
  240
  258
  278
  298
  319
  340
  363
  387
  411
  437
  463
  491
  520
  550
  581
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.967
  5.060
  5.680
  6.160
  6.550
  6.870
  7.130
  7.340
  7.520
  7.680
  7.800
  7.920
  8.010
  8.100
  8.170
  8.230
  8.290
  8.340
  8.390
  8.430
  8.470
  8.500
  8.530
  8.560
  8.590
  8.610
  8.630
  8.650
  8.670
  8.690
  8.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.111
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -31
  -72
  -80
  -95
  -110
  -127
  -145
  -164
  -184
  -205
  -228
  -251
  -276
  -301
  -328
  -356
  -385
  -415
  -447
  -479
  -513
  -548
  -585
  -623
  -662
  -704
  -746
  -791
  -838
  -886
  -937
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
Funds from operations, $m
  -24
  -70
  -78
  -91
  -106
  -122
  -140
  -158
  -177
  -198
  -220
  -242
  -266
  -291
  -317
  -344
  -372
  -401
  -431
  -463
  -495
  -529
  -565
  -601
  -640
  -679
  -721
  -764
  -809
  -856
  -905
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  -24
  -70
  -78
  -92
  -107
  -123
  -140
  -159
  -178
  -199
  -221
  -244
  -267
  -292
  -318
  -345
  -373
  -403
  -433
  -464
  -497
  -531
  -567
  -603
  -642
  -682
  -723
  -766
  -811
  -859
  -908
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -6
  -6
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
Free cash flow, $m
  -24
  -76
  -85
  -99
  -115
  -132
  -151
  -170
  -191
  -212
  -235
  -259
  -284
  -310
  -337
  -365
  -395
  -425
  -457
  -490
  -524
  -560
  -597
  -636
  -676
  -717
  -761
  -806
  -853
  -903
  -954
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  -36
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  115
  81
  96
  111
  128
  146
  165
  185
  206
  229
  253
  277
  303
  330
  358
  387
  417
  449
  481
  515
  550
  587
  625
  665
  706
  749
  794
  841
  889
  940
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  14
  79
  88
  104
  120
  137
  156
  176
  196
  218
  241
  266
  291
  317
  345
  374
  403
  434
  466
  499
  534
  570
  607
  646
  687
  729
  773
  819
  867
  916
  968
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -10
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  28
  -115
  -81
  -96
  -111
  -128
  -146
  -165
  -185
  -206
  -229
  -253
  -277
  -303
  -330
  -358
  -387
  -417
  -449
  -481
  -515
  -550
  -587
  -625
  -665
  -706
  -749
  -794
  -841
  -889
  -940
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -103
  -78
  -91
  -107
  -123
  -141
  -159
  -179
  -200
  -223
  -246
  -270
  -296
  -322
  -350
  -379
  -409
  -440
  -472
  -505
  -540
  -577
  -614
  -654
  -694
  -737
  -781
  -827
  -876
  -926
Discount rate, %
 
  16.10
  16.91
  17.75
  18.64
  19.57
  20.55
  21.58
  22.65
  23.79
  24.98
  26.23
  27.54
  28.91
  30.36
  31.88
  33.47
  35.14
  36.90
  38.75
  40.68
  42.72
  44.85
  47.10
  49.45
  51.92
  54.52
  57.25
  60.11
  63.11
  66.27
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -89
  -57
  -56
  -54
  -50
  -46
  -41
  -35
  -29
  -24
  -19
  -15
  -11
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  2.5
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Marrone Bio Innovations, Inc. offers bio-based pest management and plant health products. The Company's bio-based products include naturally occurring microorganisms, such as bacteria, fungi and plant extracts. It sells its products to crop protection market. Its four crop protection products include Regalia, Grandevo, Venerate and Majestene. Its products are used in both conventional and organic crop production, and are sold to growers of specialty crops, such as grapes, citrus, tomatoes, vegetables, nuts, leafy greens and ornamental plants. It offers Regalia for large-acre row crops, such as corn and soybeans. Its pipeline of early-stage discoveries and product candidates extends across a range of product types for end markets, including herbicides, fungicides, nematicides, insecticides, algaecides (for algae control), molluscicides (for mussel and snail control), and plant growth and plant stress regulators. It is engaged in developing MBI-010, MBI-110, Haven (MBI-505) and MBI-601.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Marrone Bio Innovations (MBII)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.8
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book -0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 40%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity -193.3%
Total Debt to Equity -196.7%
Interest Coverage -4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -42.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -55.8%
Return On Total Capital -72.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -81.5%
Return On Equity 193.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -78.2%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
EBITDA Margin -164.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -355.5%
Operating Margin -171.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -368.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -221.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -413.1%
Net Profit Margin -221.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -413.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

MBII stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MBII stock intrinsic value calculation we used $14 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Marrone Bio Innovations. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Marrone Bio Innovations. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MBII stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 16.1%, whose default value for MBII is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Marrone Bio Innovations, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Marrone Bio Innovations.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MBII stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 492.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MBII stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.3% for Marrone Bio Innovations.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Marrone Bio Innovations. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MBII stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MBII are equal to 132.1%.

Life of production assets of 9.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Marrone Bio Innovations operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MBII is equal to 21.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-30 million for Marrone Bio Innovations - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.833 million for Marrone Bio Innovations is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Marrone Bio Innovations at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
FMC FMC 90.44 2.71  str.sell
SYT Syngenta ADR 92.05 33.67  str.sell
AVD American Vangu 21.45 6.27  str.sell
SMG Scotts Miracle 96.82 37.93  str.sell
MON Monsanto 119.40 44.90  str.sell
DD E.I. DuPont de 83.93 46.21  sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Pot Stock Winners of the Week   [Sep-22-17 04:51PM  Investopedia]
▶ Marrone Bio ships first products to Africa   [Jul-24-17 06:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Marrone Bio Innovations Joins the Russell Microcap Index   [Jun-26-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 5 things to know, and photos from Mikuni's big anniversary party   [May-10-17 11:31AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Marrone Bio Innovations Hosts Grower Nematicide Training   [Feb-21-17 10:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marrone Bio Innovations to Hold Bioinsecticides Webinar   [Feb-10-17 06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ed Goldman: Pam Marrone has declared war on weeds   [Oct-06-16 05:28PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Ed Goldman: Pam Marrones rollercoaster ride is smoothing out   [Oct-05-16 11:40AM  at bizjournals.com]
Financial statements of MBII
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

FREE DOWNLOAD
Follow us on:   twitter   twitter   twitter   twitter

VALUATION THEORY       ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Site news       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2017. All rigths reserved.