Intrinsic value of Mid-Con Energy Partners - MCEP

Previous Close

$1.00

  Intrinsic Value

$0.91

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-9%

  Value-price divergence*

-57%

Previous close

$1.00

 
Intrinsic value

$0.91

 
Up/down potential

-9%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-57%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MCEP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -54.17
  28.60
  26.24
  24.12
  22.20
  20.48
  18.94
  17.54
  16.29
  15.16
  14.14
  13.23
  12.41
  11.67
  11.00
  10.40
  9.86
  9.37
  8.94
  8.54
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.24
  6.11
Revenue, $m
  44
  57
  71
  89
  108
  131
  155
  182
  212
  244
  279
  316
  355
  396
  440
  486
  534
  584
  636
  690
  747
  805
  867
  930
  996
  1,065
  1,136
  1,210
  1,287
  1,367
  1,451
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  109
  138
  171
  209
  252
  300
  353
  410
  472
  539
  610
  686
  766
  850
  939
  1,031
  1,128
  1,229
  1,333
  1,443
  1,556
  1,674
  1,797
  1,924
  2,057
  2,194
  2,338
  2,487
  2,642
  2,803
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  61
  109
  138
  171
  209
  252
  300
  353
  410
  472
  539
  610
  686
  766
  850
  939
  1,031
  1,128
  1,229
  1,333
  1,443
  1,556
  1,674
  1,797
  1,924
  2,057
  2,194
  2,338
  2,487
  2,642
  2,803
Operating income, $m
  -17
  -53
  -67
  -83
  -101
  -122
  -145
  -170
  -198
  -228
  -260
  -294
  -331
  -369
  -410
  -453
  -497
  -544
  -593
  -643
  -696
  -751
  -808
  -867
  -928
  -992
  -1,059
  -1,128
  -1,199
  -1,274
  -1,352
EBITDA, $m
  6
  -23
  -29
  -36
  -44
  -53
  -64
  -75
  -87
  -100
  -114
  -129
  -145
  -162
  -180
  -199
  -218
  -239
  -260
  -282
  -306
  -330
  -355
  -381
  -408
  -436
  -465
  -495
  -527
  -560
  -594
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  17
  21
  24
  28
  33
  38
  43
  48
  54
  60
  66
  73
  80
  87
  94
  102
  110
  118
  127
  136
  146
  156
  166
  176
  187
Earnings before tax, $m
  -25
  -58
  -74
  -92
  -112
  -136
  -162
  -191
  -222
  -256
  -293
  -332
  -374
  -418
  -464
  -513
  -563
  -617
  -672
  -730
  -790
  -853
  -918
  -985
  -1,055
  -1,128
  -1,204
  -1,283
  -1,365
  -1,451
  -1,540
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -25
  -58
  -74
  -92
  -112
  -136
  -162
  -191
  -222
  -256
  -293
  -332
  -374
  -418
  -464
  -513
  -563
  -617
  -672
  -730
  -790
  -853
  -918
  -985
  -1,055
  -1,128
  -1,204
  -1,283
  -1,365
  -1,451
  -1,540

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  276
  351
  444
  551
  673
  811
  964
  1,133
  1,318
  1,518
  1,733
  1,962
  2,205
  2,462
  2,733
  3,017
  3,315
  3,626
  3,950
  4,287
  4,638
  5,003
  5,382
  5,777
  6,186
  6,612
  7,055
  7,515
  7,994
  8,492
  9,011
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  274
  351
  444
  551
  673
  811
  964
  1,133
  1,318
  1,518
  1,733
  1,962
  2,205
  2,462
  2,733
  3,017
  3,315
  3,626
  3,950
  4,287
  4,638
  5,003
  5,382
  5,777
  6,186
  6,612
  7,055
  7,515
  7,994
  8,492
  9,011
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.161
  0.162
  0.160
  0.162
  0.160
  0.162
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
Average production assets, $m
  276
  355
  448
  556
  680
  819
  974
  1,145
  1,331
  1,533
  1,750
  1,981
  2,227
  2,487
  2,760
  3,048
  3,348
  3,662
  3,989
  4,330
  4,684
  5,053
  5,436
  5,834
  6,248
  6,678
  7,125
  7,590
  8,073
  8,577
  9,101
Working capital, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -65
Total debt, $m
  142
  189
  244
  308
  381
  464
  556
  657
  768
  887
  1,016
  1,153
  1,299
  1,453
  1,615
  1,785
  1,964
  2,150
  2,344
  2,546
  2,756
  2,975
  3,202
  3,438
  3,684
  3,939
  4,204
  4,479
  4,766
  5,065
  5,376
Total liabilities, $m
  165
  211
  266
  330
  403
  486
  578
  679
  790
  909
  1,038
  1,175
  1,321
  1,475
  1,637
  1,807
  1,986
  2,172
  2,366
  2,568
  2,778
  2,997
  3,224
  3,460
  3,706
  3,961
  4,226
  4,501
  4,788
  5,087
  5,398
Total equity, $m
  112
  141
  178
  221
  270
  325
  387
  455
  529
  609
  695
  787
  884
  987
  1,096
  1,210
  1,329
  1,454
  1,584
  1,719
  1,860
  2,006
  2,158
  2,316
  2,481
  2,651
  2,829
  3,014
  3,206
  3,405
  3,614
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  277
  352
  444
  551
  673
  811
  965
  1,134
  1,319
  1,518
  1,733
  1,962
  2,205
  2,462
  2,733
  3,017
  3,315
  3,626
  3,950
  4,287
  4,638
  5,003
  5,382
  5,776
  6,187
  6,612
  7,055
  7,515
  7,994
  8,492
  9,012
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.268
  1.340
  1.370
  1.390
  1.410
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.450
  1.460
  1.460
  1.470
  1.470
  1.470
  1.470
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -25
  -58
  -74
  -92
  -112
  -136
  -162
  -191
  -222
  -256
  -293
  -332
  -374
  -418
  -464
  -513
  -563
  -617
  -672
  -730
  -790
  -853
  -918
  -985
  -1,055
  -1,128
  -1,204
  -1,283
  -1,365
  -1,451
  -1,540
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  30
  37
  46
  57
  68
  81
  95
  111
  128
  146
  165
  186
  207
  230
  254
  279
  305
  332
  361
  390
  421
  453
  486
  521
  556
  594
  632
  673
  715
  758
Funds from operations, $m
  48
  -28
  -36
  -45
  -56
  -68
  -81
  -95
  -111
  -128
  -147
  -167
  -188
  -210
  -234
  -259
  -284
  -312
  -340
  -369
  -400
  -432
  -465
  -499
  -535
  -572
  -611
  -651
  -692
  -736
  -781
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  44
  -28
  -36
  -45
  -55
  -67
  -80
  -94
  -110
  -127
  -145
  -165
  -186
  -208
  -232
  -257
  -282
  -309
  -337
  -367
  -397
  -429
  -462
  -496
  -532
  -569
  -607
  -647
  -689
  -732
  -777
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -30
  -37
  -46
  -57
  -68
  -81
  -95
  -111
  -128
  -146
  -165
  -186
  -207
  -230
  -254
  -279
  -305
  -332
  -361
  -390
  -421
  -453
  -486
  -521
  -556
  -594
  -632
  -673
  -715
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -79
  -93
  -108
  -123
  -139
  -155
  -171
  -186
  -202
  -217
  -231
  -246
  -260
  -274
  -287
  -300
  -314
  -327
  -341
  -355
  -369
  -383
  -398
  -414
  -430
  -447
  -465
  -484
  -503
  -524
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -102
  -123
  -145
  -169
  -196
  -223
  -252
  -281
  -313
  -345
  -377
  -411
  -446
  -481
  -517
  -554
  -593
  -632
  -673
  -716
  -759
  -804
  -851
  -900
  -951
  -1,003
  -1,059
  -1,116
  -1,176
  -1,239
Free cash flow, $m
  36
  -130
  -158
  -190
  -225
  -262
  -303
  -346
  -392
  -440
  -490
  -542
  -597
  -654
  -713
  -774
  -837
  -902
  -970
  -1,040
  -1,113
  -1,188
  -1,266
  -1,347
  -1,432
  -1,520
  -1,611
  -1,706
  -1,805
  -1,908
  -2,016
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -58
  47
  55
  64
  73
  83
  92
  101
  111
  120
  129
  137
  146
  154
  162
  170
  178
  186
  194
  202
  210
  219
  227
  236
  245
  255
  265
  276
  287
  299
  311
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  25
  89
  111
  135
  161
  191
  223
  258
  296
  336
  379
  424
  471
  521
  572
  627
  683
  741
  802
  865
  931
  999
  1,070
  1,143
  1,220
  1,299
  1,382
  1,468
  1,557
  1,651
  1,748
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -34
  136
  166
  199
  234
  274
  315
  359
  407
  456
  508
  561
  617
  675
  734
  797
  861
  927
  996
  1,067
  1,141
  1,218
  1,297
  1,379
  1,465
  1,554
  1,647
  1,744
  1,844
  1,950
  2,059
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  6
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  19
  -89
  -111
  -135
  -161
  -191
  -223
  -258
  -296
  -336
  -379
  -424
  -471
  -521
  -572
  -627
  -683
  -741
  -802
  -865
  -931
  -999
  -1,070
  -1,143
  -1,220
  -1,299
  -1,382
  -1,468
  -1,557
  -1,651
  -1,748
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -81
  -103
  -126
  -151
  -180
  -211
  -245
  -281
  -320
  -361
  -405
  -451
  -500
  -550
  -603
  -659
  -716
  -776
  -838
  -902
  -969
  -1,039
  -1,111
  -1,186
  -1,264
  -1,346
  -1,430
  -1,518
  -1,610
  -1,705
Discount rate, %
 
  7.70
  8.09
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.83
  10.32
  10.83
  11.38
  11.95
  12.54
  13.17
  13.83
  14.52
  15.25
  16.01
  16.81
  17.65
  18.53
  19.46
  20.43
  21.45
  22.52
  23.65
  24.83
  26.07
  27.38
  28.75
  30.18
  31.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -75
  -88
  -99
  -108
  -115
  -120
  -123
  -123
  -121
  -117
  -110
  -102
  -93
  -82
  -72
  -61
  -51
  -42
  -33
  -26
  -20
  -14
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  46.4
  21.9
  10.5
  5.1
  2.6
  1.3
  0.7
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Mid-Con Energy Partners, LP acquires, explores, develops, and produces oil and natural gas properties in North America. The company’s properties are located in the Southern Oklahoma, Northeastern Oklahoma, parts of Oklahoma, Colorado and Texas within the Hugoton, and Texas Gulf Coast and Texas within the Eastern Shelf of the Permian in the Mid-Continent and Permian Basin regions of the United States. It owns 92% working interest in 512 net producing wells, 246 net injection, water supply or disposal wells, and 463 net wells shut-in or waiting on completion. As of December 31, 2015, the company’s total estimated proved reserves were approximately 22.3 million barrel of oil equivalent. Mid-Con Energy GP, LLC serves as the general partner of Mid-Con Energy Partners, LP. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Mid-Con Energy Partners (MCEP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.2
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 0.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -54.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -20.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 126.8%
Total Debt to Equity 126.8%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -7%
Return On Total Capital -8.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.1%
Return On Equity -20.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 40.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59%
EBITDA Margin 9.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.5%
Operating Margin -38.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -56.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -46.5%
Net Profit Margin -56.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -46.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

MCEP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MCEP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $44 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Mid-Con Energy Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Mid-Con Energy Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MCEP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 28.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.7%, whose default value for MCEP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Mid-Con Energy Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Mid-Con Energy Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MCEP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 193.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MCEP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for Mid-Con Energy Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Mid-Con Energy Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MCEP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MCEP are equal to 627.3%.

Life of production assets of 12 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Mid-Con Energy Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MCEP is equal to -4.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $112 million for Mid-Con Energy Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 30.915 million for Mid-Con Energy Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Mid-Con Energy Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Mid-Con reports 2Q loss   [Aug-04-17 02:05AM  Associated Press]
▶ Mid-Con posts 1Q profit   [May-01-17 04:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mid-Con reports 4Q loss   [Feb-28-17 07:09PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of MCEP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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