Intrinsic value of Medicines - MDCO

Previous Close

$40.08

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$40.08

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MDCO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -45.63
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  168
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  116
  119
  121
  124
  127
  131
  134
  138
  143
  148
  132
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  213
  223
  234
  245
  256
  269
  282
  295
  310
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  535
  116
  119
  121
  124
  127
  131
  134
  138
  143
  148
  132
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  213
  223
  234
  245
  256
  269
  282
  295
  310
Operating income, $m
  -367
  -71
  -72
  -73
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -155
  -162
EBITDA, $m
  -336
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  47
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
  167
Earnings before tax, $m
  -119
  -118
  -116
  -119
  -122
  -125
  -129
  -133
  -138
  -142
  -148
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -270
  -284
  -298
  -313
  -329
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -119
  -118
  -116
  -119
  -122
  -125
  -129
  -133
  -138
  -142
  -148
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -270
  -284
  -298
  -313
  -329

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  542
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,705
  900
  921
  944
  971
  1,000
  1,033
  1,068
  1,106
  1,147
  1,191
  1,238
  1,288
  1,342
  1,399
  1,459
  1,523
  1,591
  1,662
  1,738
  1,818
  1,902
  1,991
  2,084
  2,183
  2,287
  2,396
  2,512
  2,633
  2,760
  2,894
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,163
  900
  921
  944
  971
  1,000
  1,033
  1,068
  1,106
  1,147
  1,191
  1,238
  1,288
  1,342
  1,399
  1,459
  1,523
  1,591
  1,662
  1,738
  1,818
  1,902
  1,991
  2,084
  2,183
  2,287
  2,396
  2,512
  2,633
  2,760
  2,894
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.144
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
  0.051
Average production assets, $m
  641
  362
  370
  380
  391
  402
  415
  430
  445
  461
  479
  498
  518
  540
  563
  587
  613
  640
  669
  699
  731
  765
  801
  838
  878
  920
  964
  1,010
  1,059
  1,110
  1,164
Working capital, $m
  409
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
Total debt, $m
  677
  611
  630
  651
  675
  702
  731
  762
  797
  833
  873
  915
  961
  1,009
  1,060
  1,114
  1,172
  1,233
  1,297
  1,365
  1,437
  1,513
  1,593
  1,677
  1,766
  1,859
  1,958
  2,062
  2,171
  2,285
  2,406
Total liabilities, $m
  1,052
  810
  829
  850
  874
  900
  929
  961
  995
  1,032
  1,072
  1,114
  1,159
  1,208
  1,259
  1,313
  1,371
  1,432
  1,496
  1,564
  1,636
  1,712
  1,792
  1,876
  1,965
  2,058
  2,157
  2,260
  2,369
  2,484
  2,605
Total equity, $m
  654
  90
  92
  94
  97
  100
  103
  107
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  229
  240
  251
  263
  276
  289
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,706
  900
  921
  944
  971
  1,000
  1,032
  1,068
  1,106
  1,147
  1,191
  1,238
  1,288
  1,342
  1,399
  1,459
  1,523
  1,591
  1,662
  1,738
  1,818
  1,902
  1,991
  2,084
  2,183
  2,287
  2,397
  2,511
  2,632
  2,760
  2,894
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.035
  6.790
  6.840
  6.900
  6.950
  7.010
  7.080
  7.140
  7.200
  7.270
  7.330
  7.390
  7.460
  7.520
  7.580
  7.640
  7.690
  7.750
  7.800
  7.860
  7.910
  7.950
  8.000
  8.050
  8.090
  8.130
  8.170
  8.210
  8.240
  8.280
  8.310
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.096
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -119
  -118
  -116
  -119
  -122
  -125
  -129
  -133
  -138
  -142
  -148
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -270
  -284
  -298
  -313
  -329
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  31
  56
  57
  58
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
Funds from operations, $m
  -362
  -62
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -213
Change in working capital, $m
  -39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -323
  -62
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -212
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -9
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
Cash from investing activities, $m
  422
  -44
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -85
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -150
  -157
  -165
Free cash flow, $m
  99
  -106
  -104
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -189
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -254
  -266
  -280
  -294
  -309
  -325
  -341
  -359
  -377
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  136
  -38
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  34
  183
  118
  121
  125
  128
  132
  137
  141
  147
  152
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  200
  209
  220
  231
  242
  255
  267
  281
  295
  310
  326
  342
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  71
  145
  137
  142
  149
  154
  161
  169
  175
  184
  192
  180
  189
  199
  209
  219
  231
  242
  254
  268
  281
  296
  311
  326
  344
  361
  379
  399
  419
  441
  463
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  169
  39
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  95
  -183
  -118
  -121
  -125
  -128
  -132
  -137
  -141
  -147
  -152
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -209
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -255
  -267
  -281
  -295
  -310
  -326
  -342
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -144
  -85
  -86
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -107
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -244
  -256
Discount rate, %
 
  12.10
  12.71
  13.34
  14.01
  14.71
  15.44
  16.22
  17.03
  17.88
  18.77
  19.71
  20.70
  21.73
  22.82
  23.96
  25.16
  26.41
  27.73
  29.12
  30.58
  32.10
  33.71
  35.40
  37.17
  39.02
  40.97
  43.02
  45.17
  47.43
  49.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -128
  -67
  -59
  -52
  -45
  -39
  -33
  -28
  -23
  -19
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  57.7
  51.0
  45.1
  39.8
  35.2
  31.1
  27.4
  24.2
  21.4
  18.9
  16.9
  15.2
  13.6
  12.1
  10.9
  9.7
  8.7
  7.8
  6.9
  6.2
  5.5
  4.9
  4.4
  3.9
  3.5
  3.1
  2.8
  2.5
  2.2
  1.9

The Medicines Company is a global biopharmaceutical company. The Company is focused on advancing the treatment of acute and intensive care patients through the delivery of medicines to the hospital marketplace around the world. It markets Angiomax (bivalirudin), Ionsys (fentanyl iontophoretic transdermal system), Minocin (minocycline) for injection and Orbactiv (oritavancin). It also has a pipeline of products in development, including Carbavance, inclisiran and MDCO-700. Carbavance is used for the treatment of hospitalized patients with gram-negative bacterial infections. Inclisiran is used for the treatment of hypercholesterolemia. MDCO-700 includes sedative-hypnotic, which is used to induce and maintain sedation for procedural care and general anesthesia for surgical care. In addition to these products and products in development, it has a portfolio of generic drugs.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Medicines (MDCO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -23.9
Price to Sales 16.9
Price to Book 4.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -8.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -8.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -45.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -89.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 95.3%
Total Debt to Equity 103.5%
Interest Coverage -9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.9%
Return On Total Capital -9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.4%
Return On Equity -17%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61%
EBITDA Margin -45.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.7%
Operating Margin -218.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -102.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -70.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -50.9%
Net Profit Margin -70.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -63.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

MDCO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MDCO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $45 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Medicines. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Medicines. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MDCO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.1%, whose default value for MDCO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Medicines, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Medicines.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MDCO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 254.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MDCO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.3% for Medicines.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Medicines. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MDCO stock is equal to 25%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MDCO are equal to 788.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Medicines operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MDCO is equal to -10.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $25 million for Medicines - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 72 million for Medicines is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Medicines at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.9 billion.

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Financial statements of MDCO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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