Intrinsic value of McDermott International - MDR

Previous Close

$5.69

  Intrinsic Value

$2.47

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-57%

  Value-price divergence*

+37%

Previous close

$5.69

 
Intrinsic value

$2.47

 
Up/down potential

-57%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+37%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MDR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -14.14
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,636
  2,689
  2,751
  2,821
  2,901
  2,989
  3,085
  3,190
  3,304
  3,426
  3,558
  3,699
  3,849
  4,008
  4,178
  4,359
  4,550
  4,752
  4,966
  5,191
  5,430
  5,682
  5,947
  6,227
  6,522
  6,832
  7,159
  7,503
  7,865
  8,246
  8,647
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,592
  2,652
  2,720
  2,796
  2,881
  2,974
  3,075
  3,185
  3,303
  3,430
  3,565
  3,710
  3,864
  4,028
  4,202
  4,386
  4,581
  4,787
  5,005
  5,235
  5,477
  5,733
  6,003
  6,287
  6,586
  6,901
  7,233
  7,582
  7,949
  8,336
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,494
  2,592
  2,652
  2,720
  2,796
  2,881
  2,974
  3,075
  3,185
  3,303
  3,430
  3,565
  3,710
  3,864
  4,028
  4,202
  4,386
  4,581
  4,787
  5,005
  5,235
  5,477
  5,733
  6,003
  6,287
  6,586
  6,901
  7,233
  7,582
  7,949
  8,336
Operating income, $m
  142
  97
  99
  102
  104
  108
  111
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  139
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  205
  214
  224
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  297
  311
EBITDA, $m
  232
  189
  193
  198
  204
  210
  217
  224
  232
  241
  250
  260
  270
  281
  293
  306
  319
  334
  349
  364
  381
  399
  418
  437
  458
  480
  503
  527
  552
  579
  607
Interest expense (income), $m
  47
  42
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  91
  97
  104
  111
  118
  126
  134
  143
  152
  161
  172
  182
  193
  205
  218
  231
  245
Earnings before tax, $m
  82
  55
  56
  56
  56
  56
  57
  57
  57
  58
  58
  58
  59
  59
  59
  60
  60
  60
  61
  61
  61
  62
  62
  63
  63
  64
  64
  65
  65
  66
  67
Tax expense, $m
  42
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  18
Net income, $m
  34
  40
  41
  41
  41
  41
  41
  42
  42
  42
  42
  43
  43
  43
  43
  43
  44
  44
  44
  45
  45
  45
  45
  46
  46
  47
  47
  47
  48
  48
  49

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  596
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,222
  2,678
  2,740
  2,810
  2,889
  2,977
  3,073
  3,177
  3,291
  3,413
  3,544
  3,684
  3,833
  3,992
  4,162
  4,341
  4,531
  4,733
  4,946
  5,171
  5,408
  5,659
  5,923
  6,202
  6,496
  6,805
  7,131
  7,473
  7,834
  8,213
  8,612
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,626
  2,678
  2,740
  2,810
  2,889
  2,977
  3,073
  3,177
  3,291
  3,413
  3,544
  3,684
  3,833
  3,992
  4,162
  4,341
  4,531
  4,733
  4,946
  5,171
  5,408
  5,659
  5,923
  6,202
  6,496
  6,805
  7,131
  7,473
  7,834
  8,213
  8,612
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
Average production assets, $m
  1,649
  1,683
  1,722
  1,766
  1,816
  1,871
  1,931
  1,997
  2,068
  2,145
  2,227
  2,315
  2,409
  2,509
  2,616
  2,728
  2,848
  2,975
  3,108
  3,250
  3,399
  3,557
  3,723
  3,898
  4,083
  4,277
  4,482
  4,697
  4,924
  5,162
  5,413
Working capital, $m
  623
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  167
  174
  183
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
Total debt, $m
  753
  737
  775
  818
  867
  921
  980
  1,044
  1,114
  1,189
  1,270
  1,356
  1,448
  1,546
  1,651
  1,761
  1,878
  2,002
  2,134
  2,272
  2,419
  2,573
  2,736
  2,908
  3,088
  3,279
  3,479
  3,691
  3,913
  4,146
  4,392
Total liabilities, $m
  1,666
  1,650
  1,688
  1,731
  1,780
  1,834
  1,893
  1,957
  2,027
  2,102
  2,183
  2,269
  2,361
  2,459
  2,564
  2,674
  2,791
  2,915
  3,047
  3,185
  3,332
  3,486
  3,649
  3,821
  4,001
  4,192
  4,392
  4,604
  4,826
  5,059
  5,305
Total equity, $m
  1,556
  1,028
  1,052
  1,079
  1,109
  1,143
  1,180
  1,220
  1,264
  1,310
  1,361
  1,415
  1,472
  1,533
  1,598
  1,667
  1,740
  1,817
  1,899
  1,986
  2,077
  2,173
  2,275
  2,382
  2,494
  2,613
  2,738
  2,870
  3,008
  3,154
  3,307
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,222
  2,678
  2,740
  2,810
  2,889
  2,977
  3,073
  3,177
  3,291
  3,412
  3,544
  3,684
  3,833
  3,992
  4,162
  4,341
  4,531
  4,732
  4,946
  5,171
  5,409
  5,659
  5,924
  6,203
  6,495
  6,805
  7,130
  7,474
  7,834
  8,213
  8,612
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.484
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.810
  0.830
  0.860
  0.880
  0.910
  0.930
  0.960
  0.980
  1.010
  1.030
  1.060
  1.080
  1.100
  1.120
  1.140
  1.160
  1.180
  1.200
  1.220
  1.240
  1.250
  1.270
  1.290
  1.300
  1.310
  1.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.366
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  34
  40
  41
  41
  41
  41
  41
  42
  42
  42
  42
  43
  43
  43
  43
  43
  44
  44
  44
  45
  45
  45
  45
  46
  46
  47
  47
  47
  48
  48
  49
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  90
  92
  94
  97
  99
  102
  106
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
  296
Funds from operations, $m
  142
  132
  135
  137
  140
  143
  147
  151
  155
  159
  164
  169
  174
  180
  186
  193
  199
  207
  214
  222
  231
  240
  249
  259
  269
  280
  292
  304
  317
  330
  344
Change in working capital, $m
  -36
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Cash from operations, $m
  178
  131
  133
  135
  138
  141
  144
  148
  152
  156
  160
  165
  170
  176
  181
  188
  194
  201
  208
  216
  224
  232
  241
  251
  261
  272
  283
  294
  307
  320
  333
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -90
  -92
  -94
  -97
  -99
  -102
  -106
  -109
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -234
  -245
  -257
  -269
  -282
New CAPEX, $m
  -228
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -50
  -55
  -60
  -66
  -71
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -185
  -194
  -205
  -215
  -227
  -238
  -251
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -231
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -172
  -180
  -190
  -199
  -210
  -221
  -232
  -243
  -256
  -269
  -283
  -297
  -311
  -327
  -344
  -360
  -378
  -398
  -417
  -439
  -460
  -484
  -507
  -533
Free cash flow, $m
  -53
  7
  2
  -3
  -8
  -13
  -18
  -23
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -45
  -50
  -56
  -62
  -68
  -75
  -81
  -88
  -95
  -103
  -111
  -119
  -128
  -137
  -146
  -156
  -166
  -177
  -188
  -200
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -103
  32
  38
  43
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  117
  124
  131
  139
  146
  154
  163
  172
  181
  190
  201
  211
  222
  234
  246
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  5
  8
  11
  15
  18
  22
  25
  29
  33
  38
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  84
  91
  97
  105
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -116
  32
  38
  43
  49
  54
  59
  64
  72
  80
  89
  97
  107
  116
  126
  136
  146
  157
  169
  181
  192
  205
  219
  233
  248
  262
  279
  295
  313
  331
  351
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -169
  38
  40
  40
  41
  41
  41
  41
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  151
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -69
  -20
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -146
  -153
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  548
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  566
  17
  13
  10
  7
  4
  1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  543
  15
  12
  8
  5
  3
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.8
  99.4
  98.7
  97.8
  96.6
  95.2
  93.7
  92.0
  90.1
  88.2
  86.1
  83.9
  81.7
  79.5
  77.1
  74.8
  72.4
  70.1
  67.7
  65.4
  63.1
  60.8
  58.5

McDermott International, Inc. provides engineering, procurement, construction and installation, front-end engineering and design, and module fabrication services for upstream field developments worldwide. It operates through three segments: the Americas, Europe and Africa; the Middle East; and Asia. The company delivers fixed and floating production facilities, pipeline installations, and subsea systems from concept to commissioning for offshore and subsea oil and gas projects. Its operations include fabrication and offshore installation of fixed and floating structures; and the installation of pipelines and subsea systems, as well as provision of shallow water and deep water construction services. The company’s customers include national, integrated, and other oil and gas companies. McDermott International, Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  McDermott International (MDR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 40.4
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -27.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 121.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 12
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 45.3%
Total Debt to Equity 48.4%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Return On Total Capital 1.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Return On Equity 2.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
EBITDA Margin 8.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Operating Margin 5.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Net Profit Margin 1.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Effective Tax Rate 51.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

MDR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MDR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2636 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by McDermott International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of McDermott International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MDR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MDR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of McDermott International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of McDermott International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MDR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MDR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for McDermott International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for McDermott International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MDR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MDR are equal to 62.6%.

Life of production assets of 18.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in McDermott International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MDR is equal to 2.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1556 million for McDermott International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 235.217 million for McDermott International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of McDermott International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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Stock chart of MDR Financial statements of MDR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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