Intrinsic value of McDermott International - MDR

Previous Close

$6.39

  Intrinsic Value

$1.64

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-74%

  Value-price divergence*

-79%

Previous close

$6.39

 
Intrinsic value

$1.64

 
Up/down potential

-74%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-79%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MDR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -14.14
  11.60
  10.94
  10.35
  9.81
  9.33
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
Revenue, $m
  2,636
  2,942
  3,264
  3,601
  3,955
  4,324
  4,708
  5,109
  5,526
  5,959
  6,409
  6,877
  7,363
  7,869
  8,394
  8,941
  9,509
  10,101
  10,717
  11,359
  12,028
  12,726
  13,455
  14,215
  15,009
  15,838
  16,705
  17,611
  18,560
  19,552
  20,590
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,836
  3,146
  3,472
  3,812
  4,168
  4,539
  4,925
  5,327
  5,744
  6,178
  6,629
  7,098
  7,585
  8,092
  8,619
  9,167
  9,737
  10,331
  10,950
  11,595
  12,268
  12,970
  13,703
  14,468
  15,268
  16,104
  16,977
  17,891
  18,848
  19,849
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,494
  2,836
  3,146
  3,472
  3,812
  4,168
  4,539
  4,925
  5,327
  5,744
  6,178
  6,629
  7,098
  7,585
  8,092
  8,619
  9,167
  9,737
  10,331
  10,950
  11,595
  12,268
  12,970
  13,703
  14,468
  15,268
  16,104
  16,977
  17,891
  18,848
  19,849
Operating income, $m
  142
  106
  117
  130
  142
  156
  169
  184
  199
  215
  231
  248
  265
  283
  302
  322
  342
  364
  386
  409
  433
  458
  484
  512
  540
  570
  601
  634
  668
  704
  741
EBITDA, $m
  232
  207
  229
  253
  278
  304
  331
  359
  388
  418
  450
  483
  517
  552
  589
  628
  668
  709
  752
  797
  844
  893
  945
  998
  1,054
  1,112
  1,173
  1,236
  1,303
  1,373
  1,446
Interest expense (income), $m
  47
  42
  53
  64
  76
  89
  103
  117
  131
  146
  162
  178
  195
  213
  231
  250
  270
  290
  312
  334
  357
  382
  407
  433
  461
  489
  519
  551
  584
  618
  654
Earnings before tax, $m
  82
  64
  65
  65
  66
  66
  67
  67
  68
  68
  69
  69
  70
  71
  71
  72
  73
  73
  74
  75
  76
  77
  78
  79
  80
  81
  82
  83
  84
  86
  87
Tax expense, $m
  42
  17
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
Net income, $m
  34
  47
  47
  48
  48
  48
  49
  49
  50
  50
  50
  51
  51
  52
  52
  52
  53
  53
  54
  55
  55
  56
  57
  57
  58
  59
  60
  61
  62
  63
  64

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  596
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,222
  2,930
  3,251
  3,587
  3,939
  4,306
  4,689
  5,088
  5,503
  5,935
  6,384
  6,850
  7,334
  7,837
  8,361
  8,905
  9,471
  10,061
  10,674
  11,314
  11,980
  12,676
  13,401
  14,158
  14,949
  15,775
  16,638
  17,541
  18,486
  19,474
  20,508
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,626
  2,930
  3,251
  3,587
  3,939
  4,306
  4,689
  5,088
  5,503
  5,935
  6,384
  6,850
  7,334
  7,837
  8,361
  8,905
  9,471
  10,061
  10,674
  11,314
  11,980
  12,676
  13,401
  14,158
  14,949
  15,775
  16,638
  17,541
  18,486
  19,474
  20,508
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
  1.004
Average production assets, $m
  1,649
  1,842
  2,043
  2,254
  2,476
  2,707
  2,947
  3,198
  3,459
  3,730
  4,012
  4,305
  4,609
  4,926
  5,255
  5,597
  5,953
  6,323
  6,709
  7,111
  7,530
  7,967
  8,423
  8,898
  9,395
  9,915
  10,457
  11,025
  11,618
  12,239
  12,889
Working capital, $m
  623
  82
  91
  101
  111
  121
  132
  143
  155
  167
  179
  193
  206
  220
  235
  250
  266
  283
  300
  318
  337
  356
  377
  398
  420
  443
  468
  493
  520
  547
  577
Total debt, $m
  753
  892
  1,089
  1,297
  1,513
  1,740
  1,976
  2,221
  2,477
  2,743
  3,019
  3,306
  3,605
  3,915
  4,237
  4,572
  4,921
  5,284
  5,662
  6,056
  6,467
  6,895
  7,342
  7,808
  8,295
  8,804
  9,336
  9,892
  10,474
  11,083
  11,720
Total liabilities, $m
  1,666
  1,805
  2,002
  2,210
  2,426
  2,653
  2,889
  3,134
  3,390
  3,656
  3,932
  4,219
  4,518
  4,828
  5,150
  5,485
  5,834
  6,197
  6,575
  6,969
  7,380
  7,808
  8,255
  8,721
  9,208
  9,717
  10,249
  10,805
  11,387
  11,996
  12,633
Total equity, $m
  1,556
  1,125
  1,248
  1,377
  1,513
  1,654
  1,801
  1,954
  2,113
  2,279
  2,451
  2,630
  2,816
  3,010
  3,211
  3,420
  3,637
  3,863
  4,099
  4,345
  4,600
  4,867
  5,146
  5,437
  5,740
  6,058
  6,389
  6,736
  7,098
  7,478
  7,875
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,222
  2,930
  3,250
  3,587
  3,939
  4,307
  4,690
  5,088
  5,503
  5,935
  6,383
  6,849
  7,334
  7,838
  8,361
  8,905
  9,471
  10,060
  10,674
  11,314
  11,980
  12,675
  13,401
  14,158
  14,948
  15,775
  16,638
  17,541
  18,485
  19,474
  20,508
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.484
  0.790
  0.870
  0.940
  1.000
  1.050
  1.100
  1.140
  1.170
  1.200
  1.230
  1.260
  1.280
  1.300
  1.320
  1.340
  1.350
  1.370
  1.380
  1.390
  1.410
  1.420
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.480
  1.480
  1.490
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.366
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  34
  47
  47
  48
  48
  48
  49
  49
  50
  50
  50
  51
  51
  52
  52
  52
  53
  53
  54
  55
  55
  56
  57
  57
  58
  59
  60
  61
  62
  63
  64
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  90
  101
  112
  123
  135
  148
  161
  175
  189
  204
  219
  235
  252
  269
  287
  306
  325
  346
  367
  389
  411
  435
  460
  486
  513
  542
  571
  602
  635
  669
  704
Funds from operations, $m
  142
  148
  159
  171
  183
  196
  210
  224
  239
  254
  270
  286
  303
  321
  339
  358
  378
  399
  421
  443
  467
  491
  517
  544
  572
  601
  631
  663
  697
  732
  768
Change in working capital, $m
  -36
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
Cash from operations, $m
  178
  139
  150
  161
  173
  186
  199
  213
  227
  242
  257
  273
  289
  307
  324
  343
  362
  382
  403
  425
  448
  472
  496
  522
  549
  577
  607
  638
  670
  704
  739
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -90
  -101
  -112
  -123
  -135
  -148
  -161
  -175
  -189
  -204
  -219
  -235
  -252
  -269
  -287
  -306
  -325
  -346
  -367
  -389
  -411
  -435
  -460
  -486
  -513
  -542
  -571
  -602
  -635
  -669
New CAPEX, $m
  -228
  -193
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -231
  -241
  -251
  -261
  -271
  -282
  -293
  -304
  -316
  -329
  -342
  -356
  -370
  -386
  -402
  -419
  -437
  -456
  -476
  -497
  -519
  -543
  -567
  -594
  -621
  -650
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -231
  -283
  -302
  -323
  -344
  -366
  -389
  -412
  -436
  -460
  -486
  -512
  -539
  -568
  -598
  -629
  -662
  -695
  -732
  -769
  -808
  -848
  -891
  -936
  -983
  -1,032
  -1,085
  -1,138
  -1,196
  -1,256
  -1,319
Free cash flow, $m
  -53
  -144
  -152
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -262
  -274
  -286
  -299
  -313
  -328
  -343
  -360
  -377
  -395
  -414
  -434
  -455
  -478
  -501
  -526
  -552
  -580
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -103
  187
  197
  207
  217
  226
  236
  246
  256
  266
  276
  287
  298
  310
  322
  335
  349
  363
  378
  394
  411
  428
  447
  466
  487
  509
  532
  556
  582
  609
  637
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -4
  70
  76
  81
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  164
  173
  182
  191
  201
  211
  222
  233
  246
  258
  272
  286
  301
  317
  333
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -116
  257
  273
  288
  304
  319
  334
  350
  366
  382
  398
  415
  433
  452
  471
  492
  513
  536
  560
  585
  612
  639
  669
  699
  733
  767
  804
  842
  883
  926
  970
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -169
  113
  121
  127
  133
  139
  145
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  214
  223
  232
  242
  252
  263
  274
  286
  299
  312
  326
  341
  357
  373
  391
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -69
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -217
  -226
  -236
  -246
  -256
  -267
  -279
  -291
  -304
  -317
  -332
  -347
  -363
  -379
  -397
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  548
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  544
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  522
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.5
  89.4
  84.8
  80.5
  76.6
  72.9
  69.5
  66.4
  63.5
  60.7
  58.2
  55.8
  53.5
  51.4
  49.4
  47.4
  45.6
  43.9
  42.2
  40.7
  39.2
  37.7
  36.3
  35.0
  33.7
  32.5
  31.3
  30.2
  29.1
  28.0

McDermott International, Inc. is a provider of integrated engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI), front-end engineering and design (FEED) and module fabrication services for upstream field developments across the world. The Company delivers fixed and floating production facilities, pipeline installations and subsea systems from concept to commissioning for offshore and subsea oil and gas projects. It operates through three segments: the Americas, Europe and Africa (AEA), the Middle East (MEA) and Asia (ASA). As of December 31, 2016, operated in approximately 20 countries across the Americas, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Australia, its integrated resources include a diversified fleet of marine vessels, fabrication facilities and engineering offices. It support its activities with project management and procurement services, while utilizing its fully integrated capabilities in both shallow water and deepwater construction.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  McDermott International (MDR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 45.4
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -30.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 121.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 12
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 45.3%
Total Debt to Equity 48.4%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Return On Total Capital 1.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Return On Equity 2.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
EBITDA Margin 8.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Operating Margin 5.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Net Profit Margin 1.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Effective Tax Rate 51.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

MDR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MDR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2636 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by McDermott International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of McDermott International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MDR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MDR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of McDermott International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of McDermott International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MDR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MDR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for McDermott International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for McDermott International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MDR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MDR are equal to 62.6%.

Life of production assets of 18.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in McDermott International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MDR is equal to 2.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1556 million for McDermott International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 289.831 million for McDermott International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of McDermott International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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Financial statements of MDR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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