MDU Resources Group, Inc. operates as a diversified natural resource company in the United States. Its Electric segment generates, transmits, and distributes electricity in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. As of December 31, 2015, it served approximately 142,000 residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in 177 communities and adjacent rural areas. The companys Natural Gas Distribution segment distributes natural gas in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, as well as Idaho, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington; and offers related value-added services. It served approximately 906,000 residential, commercial, and industrial customers in 334 communities and adjacent rural areas. The companys Pipeline and Midstream segment provides natural gas transportation, underground storage, processing, and gathering services, as well as oil gathering and processing facilities in the Rocky Mountain and northern Great Plains regions. It also provides cathodic protection and other energy-related services. The companys Construction Materials and Contracting segment mines aggregates and markets crushed stone, sand, gravel, and related construction materials; and provides integrated contracting services in the central, southern, and western United States, as well as Alaska and Hawaii. Its Construction Services segment constructs and maintains electric and communication lines, gas pipelines, fire suppression systems, and external lighting and traffic signalization equipment. This segment also offers utility excavation services, as well as electrical and mechanical services; and manufactures and distributes transmission line construction equipment and other supplies. The companys Refining segment refines crude oil and produces and sells diesel fuel, naphtha, ATBs, and other by-products of the production process. MDU Resources Group, Inc. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Bismarck, North Dakota.
FINANCIAL RATIOS of MDU Resources Group (MDU)
|Price to Sales||1.3|
|Price to Book||2.3|
|Price to Tangible Book|
|Price to Cash Flow||11.5|
|Price to Free Cash Flow||71.8|
|Sales Growth Rate||2.9%|
|Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate||%|
|EPS Growth Rate||%|
|EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate||%|
|Capital Spending Gr. Rate||-27.7%|
|Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate||-6.1%|
|LT Debt to Equity||75.4%|
|Total Debt to Equity||77.3%|
|Return On Assets||2%|
|Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg.||-0.3%|
|Return On Total Capital||1.5%|
|Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg.||-1.9%|
|Return On Equity||2.7%|
|Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg.||-3.3%|
|Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.||0%|
|EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.||14%|
|Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.||8.6%|
|Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.||6.7%|
|Net Profit Margin||1.6%|
|Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.||-2.2%|
|Effective Tax Rate||28.5%|
|Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg.||27.7%|
MDU stock valuation input parameters
Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MDU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4129 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MDU Resources Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of MDU Resources Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.
Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MDU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.
Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
The initial discount rate of 6.8%, whose default value for MDU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MDU Resources Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MDU Resources Group.
By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.
Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MDU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 22.6%.
Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $2856 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MDU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.
Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.9% for MDU Resources Group.
Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MDU Resources Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.
Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MDU stock is equal to 0%.
Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MDU are equal to 42.2%.
Life of production assets of 11 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MDU Resources Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.
Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MDU is equal to 7.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.
Book value of equity - $2316 million for MDU Resources Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.
Shares outstanding of 197.296 million for MDU Resources Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.
Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MDU Resources Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.4 billion.
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