Intrinsic value of Mesoblast ADR - MESO

Previous Close

$6.89

  Intrinsic Value

$1.25

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$6.89

 
Intrinsic value

$1.25

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MESO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  115.00
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  135
  141
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  47
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  90
  92
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
  107
  110
  113
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  131
  134
  137
  141
  144
  148
  151
  155
  159
  163
  167
  171
  176
  180
  185
Total operating expenses, $m
  124
  137
  139
  143
  146
  150
  154
  158
  161
  166
  170
  161
  166
  171
  176
  181
  187
  193
  198
  205
  211
  218
  225
  232
  240
  248
  256
  264
  273
  282
  292
Operating income, $m
  -82
  -93
  -95
  -97
  -99
  -101
  -103
  -105
  -108
  -110
  -112
  -101
  -103
  -106
  -108
  -110
  -113
  -115
  -118
  -120
  -123
  -125
  -128
  -131
  -133
  -136
  -139
  -142
  -145
  -148
  -151
EBITDA, $m
  -82
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -33
  -33
  -33
  -33
  -33
  -33
  -32
  -32
  -31
  -30
  -29
  -28
  -26
  -25
  -23
  -21
  -18
  -16
  -13
  -10
  -7
  -3
  0
  4
  9
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
Earnings before tax, $m
  -91
  -93
  -95
  -97
  -100
  -102
  -104
  -106
  -109
  -111
  -114
  -103
  -105
  -108
  -111
  -114
  -116
  -119
  -122
  -125
  -128
  -131
  -134
  -138
  -141
  -144
  -148
  -151
  -155
  -159
  -162
Tax expense, $m
  -87
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -4
  -93
  -95
  -97
  -100
  -102
  -104
  -106
  -109
  -111
  -114
  -103
  -105
  -108
  -111
  -114
  -116
  -119
  -122
  -125
  -128
  -131
  -134
  -138
  -141
  -144
  -148
  -151
  -155
  -159
  -162

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  81
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  684
  618
  632
  648
  666
  687
  709
  733
  759
  787
  817
  850
  884
  921
  960
  1,001
  1,045
  1,092
  1,141
  1,193
  1,248
  1,305
  1,366
  1,431
  1,498
  1,570
  1,645
  1,724
  1,807
  1,895
  1,987
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  603
  618
  632
  648
  666
  687
  709
  733
  759
  787
  817
  850
  884
  921
  960
  1,001
  1,045
  1,092
  1,141
  1,193
  1,248
  1,305
  1,366
  1,431
  1,498
  1,570
  1,645
  1,724
  1,807
  1,895
  1,987
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
Average production assets, $m
  486
  496
  507
  520
  535
  551
  569
  588
  609
  632
  656
  682
  710
  739
  770
  804
  839
  876
  915
  957
  1,001
  1,048
  1,096
  1,148
  1,202
  1,260
  1,320
  1,383
  1,450
  1,520
  1,594
Working capital, $m
  60
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
Total debt, $m
  0
  4
  8
  12
  17
  22
  28
  34
  41
  48
  56
  64
  73
  83
  93
  103
  115
  127
  139
  153
  167
  182
  198
  215
  232
  251
  270
  290
  312
  335
  359
Total liabilities, $m
  156
  160
  164
  168
  173
  178
  184
  190
  197
  204
  212
  220
  229
  239
  249
  259
  271
  283
  295
  309
  323
  338
  354
  371
  388
  407
  426
  446
  468
  491
  515
Total equity, $m
  528
  458
  468
  480
  494
  509
  525
  543
  562
  583
  606
  630
  655
  682
  711
  742
  775
  809
  845
  884
  924
  967
  1,012
  1,060
  1,110
  1,163
  1,219
  1,277
  1,339
  1,404
  1,472
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  684
  618
  632
  648
  667
  687
  709
  733
  759
  787
  818
  850
  884
  921
  960
  1,001
  1,046
  1,092
  1,140
  1,193
  1,247
  1,305
  1,366
  1,431
  1,498
  1,570
  1,645
  1,723
  1,807
  1,895
  1,987
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -4
  -93
  -95
  -97
  -100
  -102
  -104
  -106
  -109
  -111
  -114
  -103
  -105
  -108
  -111
  -114
  -116
  -119
  -122
  -125
  -128
  -131
  -134
  -138
  -141
  -144
  -148
  -151
  -155
  -159
  -162
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  63
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  77
  79
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
Funds from operations, $m
  -79
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -33
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -35
  -35
  -35
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -33
  -32
  -32
  -31
  -29
  -28
  -27
  -25
  -23
  -21
  -18
  -16
  -13
  -10
  -6
  -3
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -88
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -33
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -33
  -33
  -32
  -31
  -30
  -29
  -28
  -26
  -24
  -22
  -20
  -18
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -2
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -226
Free cash flow, $m
  -90
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -122
  -126
  -130
  -134
  -139
  -143
  -148
  -152
  -157
  -162
  -167
  -173
  -178
  -184
  -189
  -195
  -201
  -208
  -214
  -221
  -228
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  69
  104
  106
  109
  113
  117
  120
  124
  128
  132
  136
  127
  131
  135
  140
  144
  149
  154
  159
  164
  169
  174
  180
  185
  191
  197
  203
  210
  216
  223
  230
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  62
  108
  110
  113
  118
  122
  126
  130
  135
  139
  144
  135
  140
  145
  150
  155
  160
  166
  172
  177
  183
  189
  196
  202
  209
  215
  222
  230
  238
  246
  254
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -30
  19
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -60
  -104
  -106
  -109
  -113
  -117
  -120
  -124
  -128
  -132
  -136
  -127
  -131
  -135
  -140
  -144
  -149
  -154
  -159
  -164
  -169
  -174
  -180
  -185
  -191
  -197
  -203
  -210
  -216
  -223
  -230
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  81
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -3
  -88
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -111
  -114
  -118
  -121
  -125
  -129
  -132
  -136
  -140
  -145
  -149
  -153
  -158
  -162
  -167
  -172
  -177
  -182
  -187
  -193
  -198
  -204
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -3
  -81
  -79
  -78
  -76
  -73
  -70
  -67
  -64
  -60
  -56
  -52
  -47
  -43
  -39
  -35
  -31
  -27
  -23
  -19
  -16
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  81.6
  66.7
  54.4
  44.3
  36.0
  29.3
  23.8
  19.4
  15.8
  12.9
  10.7
  8.9
  7.4
  6.2
  5.2
  4.3
  3.6
  3.0
  2.6
  2.2
  1.8
  1.6
  1.3
  1.1
  1.0
  0.8
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4

Mesoblast Limited develops cell-based medicines. The company has leveraged its proprietary technology platform based on specialized cells, known as mesenchymal lineage adult stem cells, to establish a portfolio of late-stage product candidates. Its allogeneic off-the-shelf cell product candidates target advanced stages of diseases with high, unmet medical needs including cardiovascular diseases, immune-mediated and inflammatory conditions, orthopedic disorders, and oncologic/hematologic conditions. The company’s lead product candidates include MPC-150-IM, a Phase 3 product candidate under investigation for the treatment of chronic congestive heart failure; MPC-06-ID, a Phase 3 product candidate under investigation for the treatment of chronic low back pain due to disc degeneration; MSC-100-IV, a Phase 3 intravenously-delivered product candidate, which is developed for the treatment of acute graft versus host disease following allogeneic bone marrow transplantation; and MPC-300-IV, an intravenously-delivered immunomodulatory product candidate for the treatment of chronic inflammatory conditions, including biologic-refractory rheumatoid arthritis, and diabetic nephropathy, which is under Phase 2 trial. It has a collaboration agreement with JCR Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd to offer TEMCELL HS. Inj., a product based on its proprietary mesenchymal lineage adult stem cell technology for the treatment of graft versus host disease. The company has operations in Australia, the United States, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland. Mesoblast Limited was founded in 2004 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Mesoblast ADR (MESO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -650.9
Price to Sales 60.5
Price to Book 4.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -29.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -29.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 115%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.4%
Return On Total Capital -0.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -13%
Return On Equity -0.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -13%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
EBITDA Margin -211.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -340.7%
Operating Margin -188.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -313.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -211.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -340.7%
Net Profit Margin -9.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -273.2%
Effective Tax Rate 95.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

MESO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MESO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $43 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Mesoblast ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Mesoblast ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MESO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MESO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Mesoblast ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Mesoblast ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MESO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 107%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $88 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MESO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Mesoblast ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Mesoblast ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MESO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MESO are equal to 1130.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Mesoblast ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MESO is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $528 million for Mesoblast ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 78.988 million for Mesoblast ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Mesoblast ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Mesoblast Ltd. : June 5, 2017   [Jun-05-17 02:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Mesoblast Ltd. : May 9, 2017   [May-09-17 04:48PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Mesoblast Raises US$40 Million   [Mar-27-17 06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of MESO Financial statements of MESO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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