Intrinsic value of Magic Software Enterprises - MGIC

Previous Close

$8.95

  Intrinsic Value

$28.23

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+215%

Previous close

$8.95

 
Intrinsic value

$28.23

 
Up/down potential

+215%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of MGIC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.77
  38.30
  34.97
  31.97
  29.28
  26.85
  24.66
  22.70
  20.93
  19.33
  17.90
  16.61
  15.45
  14.40
  13.46
  12.62
  11.86
  11.17
  10.55
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
Revenue, $m
  202
  279
  377
  498
  643
  816
  1,017
  1,248
  1,509
  1,801
  2,124
  2,476
  2,859
  3,271
  3,711
  4,179
  4,675
  5,197
  5,746
  6,320
  6,921
  7,547
  8,199
  8,878
  9,584
  10,318
  11,080
  11,872
  12,696
  13,552
  14,442
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  243
  324
  425
  547
  691
  859
  1,052
  1,271
  1,515
  1,784
  2,070
  2,390
  2,734
  3,102
  3,494
  3,908
  4,345
  4,803
  5,283
  5,785
  6,309
  6,854
  7,421
  8,012
  8,625
  9,262
  9,925
  10,613
  11,329
  12,073
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  181
  243
  324
  425
  547
  691
  859
  1,052
  1,271
  1,515
  1,784
  2,070
  2,390
  2,734
  3,102
  3,494
  3,908
  4,345
  4,803
  5,283
  5,785
  6,309
  6,854
  7,421
  8,012
  8,625
  9,262
  9,925
  10,613
  11,329
  12,073
Operating income, $m
  21
  37
  53
  73
  96
  125
  158
  196
  239
  286
  339
  406
  469
  537
  609
  686
  767
  853
  943
  1,037
  1,135
  1,238
  1,345
  1,456
  1,572
  1,693
  1,818
  1,948
  2,083
  2,223
  2,369
EBITDA, $m
  33
  52
  70
  93
  120
  152
  190
  233
  282
  336
  396
  462
  534
  610
  693
  780
  873
  970
  1,072
  1,180
  1,292
  1,409
  1,530
  1,657
  1,789
  1,926
  2,068
  2,216
  2,370
  2,529
  2,696
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  3
  4
  7
  10
  13
  17
  22
  27
  33
  39
  46
  53
  62
  70
  80
  89
  100
  111
  122
  134
  146
  159
  172
  186
  201
  216
  232
  248
  265
Earnings before tax, $m
  21
  36
  50
  68
  90
  115
  145
  179
  217
  260
  307
  367
  423
  483
  547
  615
  687
  763
  843
  926
  1,013
  1,104
  1,199
  1,297
  1,400
  1,506
  1,617
  1,732
  1,851
  1,975
  2,105
Tax expense, $m
  4
  10
  14
  18
  24
  31
  39
  48
  59
  70
  83
  99
  114
  130
  148
  166
  186
  206
  228
  250
  274
  298
  324
  350
  378
  407
  437
  468
  500
  533
  568
Net income, $m
  12
  26
  37
  50
  65
  84
  106
  130
  158
  189
  224
  268
  309
  353
  399
  449
  502
  557
  615
  676
  740
  806
  875
  947
  1,022
  1,100
  1,180
  1,264
  1,351
  1,442
  1,536

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  88
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  316
  315
  426
  562
  726
  921
  1,148
  1,409
  1,704
  2,033
  2,397
  2,795
  3,227
  3,692
  4,189
  4,717
  5,277
  5,866
  6,485
  7,133
  7,811
  8,518
  9,254
  10,020
  10,817
  11,645
  12,506
  13,400
  14,330
  15,296
  16,300
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  228
  315
  426
  562
  726
  921
  1,148
  1,409
  1,704
  2,033
  2,397
  2,795
  3,227
  3,692
  4,189
  4,717
  5,277
  5,866
  6,485
  7,133
  7,811
  8,518
  9,254
  10,020
  10,817
  11,645
  12,506
  13,400
  14,330
  15,296
  16,300
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.886
  0.886
  0.885
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
Average production assets, $m
  48
  66
  89
  117
  151
  192
  239
  293
  355
  423
  499
  582
  672
  769
  872
  982
  1,099
  1,221
  1,350
  1,485
  1,626
  1,773
  1,927
  2,086
  2,252
  2,425
  2,604
  2,790
  2,984
  3,185
  3,394
Working capital, $m
  113
  43
  58
  76
  98
  125
  156
  191
  231
  276
  325
  379
  437
  500
  568
  639
  715
  795
  879
  967
  1,059
  1,155
  1,254
  1,358
  1,466
  1,579
  1,695
  1,816
  1,942
  2,073
  2,210
Total debt, $m
  35
  73
  128
  196
  278
  376
  489
  619
  767
  931
  1,113
  1,313
  1,528
  1,761
  2,009
  2,274
  2,553
  2,848
  3,158
  3,482
  3,820
  4,174
  4,542
  4,925
  5,323
  5,738
  6,168
  6,615
  7,080
  7,563
  8,065
Total liabilities, $m
  120
  158
  213
  281
  363
  461
  574
  704
  852
  1,016
  1,198
  1,398
  1,613
  1,846
  2,094
  2,359
  2,638
  2,933
  3,243
  3,567
  3,905
  4,259
  4,627
  5,010
  5,408
  5,823
  6,253
  6,700
  7,165
  7,648
  8,150
Total equity, $m
  196
  158
  213
  281
  363
  461
  574
  704
  852
  1,016
  1,198
  1,398
  1,613
  1,846
  2,094
  2,359
  2,638
  2,933
  3,243
  3,567
  3,905
  4,259
  4,627
  5,010
  5,408
  5,823
  6,253
  6,700
  7,165
  7,648
  8,150
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  316
  316
  426
  562
  726
  922
  1,148
  1,408
  1,704
  2,032
  2,396
  2,796
  3,226
  3,692
  4,188
  4,718
  5,276
  5,866
  6,486
  7,134
  7,810
  8,518
  9,254
  10,020
  10,816
  11,646
  12,506
  13,400
  14,330
  15,296
  16,300
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.179
  0.460
  0.600
  0.700
  0.770
  0.820
  0.850
  0.880
  0.900
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  12
  26
  37
  50
  65
  84
  106
  130
  158
  189
  224
  268
  309
  353
  399
  449
  502
  557
  615
  676
  740
  806
  875
  947
  1,022
  1,100
  1,180
  1,264
  1,351
  1,442
  1,536
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  12
  15
  18
  20
  24
  28
  32
  37
  43
  50
  57
  56
  65
  74
  84
  94
  106
  117
  130
  143
  156
  171
  185
  201
  217
  233
  250
  268
  287
  306
  326
Funds from operations, $m
  28
  41
  54
  70
  89
  112
  138
  168
  201
  239
  281
  324
  373
  427
  483
  544
  607
  675
  745
  819
  896
  977
  1,061
  1,148
  1,238
  1,333
  1,431
  1,532
  1,638
  1,748
  1,863
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  31
  35
  40
  45
  49
  54
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
Cash from operations, $m
  28
  30
  39
  52
  67
  85
  107
  132
  162
  195
  232
  270
  315
  364
  416
  472
  532
  595
  661
  731
  804
  881
  961
  1,044
  1,130
  1,220
  1,314
  1,411
  1,512
  1,617
  1,726
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -6
  -9
  -11
  -15
  -18
  -23
  -28
  -34
  -41
  -48
  -56
  -65
  -74
  -84
  -94
  -106
  -117
  -130
  -143
  -156
  -171
  -185
  -201
  -217
  -233
  -250
  -268
  -287
  -306
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -18
  -23
  -28
  -34
  -41
  -47
  -54
  -61
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -90
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -166
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -201
  -209
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -36
  -23
  -29
  -37
  -45
  -56
  -65
  -77
  -89
  -103
  -117
  -131
  -146
  -162
  -177
  -194
  -210
  -229
  -246
  -265
  -284
  -303
  -324
  -345
  -367
  -389
  -412
  -436
  -462
  -488
  -515
Free cash flow, $m
  -8
  7
  10
  15
  21
  30
  41
  55
  72
  92
  115
  139
  169
  202
  239
  278
  321
  366
  415
  466
  520
  577
  637
  699
  764
  831
  902
  975
  1,050
  1,129
  1,211
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  32
  44
  55
  68
  82
  97
  114
  130
  147
  165
  182
  199
  216
  232
  249
  264
  280
  295
  310
  324
  339
  353
  368
  383
  398
  414
  430
  447
  465
  483
  502
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  18
  18
  18
  17
  13
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  30
  62
  73
  86
  99
  110
  122
  130
  147
  165
  182
  199
  216
  232
  249
  264
  280
  295
  310
  324
  339
  353
  368
  383
  398
  414
  430
  447
  465
  483
  502
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  21
  68
  84
  101
  120
  141
  163
  185
  219
  257
  297
  338
  385
  435
  487
  542
  600
  661
  724
  790
  859
  931
  1,005
  1,082
  1,162
  1,246
  1,332
  1,422
  1,515
  1,612
  1,713
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -5
  -44
  -55
  -68
  -82
  -97
  -114
  -130
  -147
  -165
  -182
  -199
  -216
  -232
  -249
  -264
  -280
  -295
  -310
  -324
  -339
  -353
  -368
  -383
  -398
  -414
  -430
  -447
  -465
  -483
  -502
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  82
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  107
  29
  33
  38
  43
  49
  55
  72
  92
  115
  139
  169
  202
  239
  278
  321
  366
  415
  466
  520
  577
  637
  699
  764
  831
  902
  975
  1,050
  1,129
  1,211
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  102
  26
  29
  31
  34
  36
  37
  45
  53
  60
  66
  72
  77
  80
  82
  81
  80
  76
  72
  66
  60
  53
  46
  39
  32
  26
  21
  16
  12
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  92.9
  87.8
  84.2
  81.7
  80.2
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5

Magic Software Enterprises Ltd. is a provider of application development, business process integration platforms, vertical software solutions and related professional services. The Company is a vendor of information technology (IT) outsourcing services. Its software technology is used by customers to develop, deploy and integrate on premise, mobile and cloud-based business. It operates through two segments: software solutions and IT professional services. The software services segment includes software technology and complementary services. The IT professional services segment offers IT services in the areas of infrastructure design and delivery, application development, technology planning and implementation services, and communications services and solutions. Its product portfolio includes Magic xpa Application Platform, AppBuilder Application Platform and Magic xpi Integration Platform. Its vertical software packages include Leap, Hermes Solution, HR Pulse and MBS Solution.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Magic Software Enterprises (MGIC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 33.1
Price to Sales 2
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 15
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 14.8%
Total Debt to Equity 17.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Return On Total Capital 5.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Equity 6.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.4%
EBITDA Margin 16.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
Operating Margin 10.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Net Profit Margin 5.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Effective Tax Rate 19%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.2%
Payout Ratio 66.7%

MGIC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MGIC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $202 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Magic Software Enterprises. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Magic Software Enterprises. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MGIC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 38.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MGIC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Magic Software Enterprises, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Magic Software Enterprises.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MGIC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MGIC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Magic Software Enterprises.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Magic Software Enterprises. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MGIC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MGIC are equal to 23.5%.

Life of production assets of 10.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Magic Software Enterprises operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MGIC is equal to 15.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $196 million for Magic Software Enterprises - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 44.031 million for Magic Software Enterprises is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Magic Software Enterprises at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ When Should You Buy Magic Software Enterprises Ltd (MGIC)?   [Sep-19-17 10:45AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ 3 Dividend-Yielding Tech Stocks to Buy Now   [Sep-14-17 01:57PM  Zacks]
▶ Magic Software posts 2Q profit   [Aug-09-17 11:00PM  Associated Press]
▶ Magic Software posts 1Q profit   [05:48AM  Associated Press]
▶ Magic Software posts 4Q profit   [Feb-21-17 07:52AM  Associated Press]
▶ Magic Software meets 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-10-16 05:17AM  AP]
▶ Magic Software misses 1Q profit forecasts   [May-09-16 06:28AM  AP]
▶ MAGIC SOFTWARE ENTERPRISES LTD Financials   [May-03-16 01:04PM  EDGAR Online Financials]
▶ 3 Attractive Income Stocks Whose Dividends Could Double   [Apr-06-16 10:42AM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of MGIC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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