Intrinsic value of Magellan Health - MGLN

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$70.70

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$70.70

 
Intrinsic value

$114.59

 
Up/down potential

+62%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MGLN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.22
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,837
  4,934
  5,047
  5,177
  5,323
  5,484
  5,661
  5,854
  6,062
  6,287
  6,529
  6,787
  7,062
  7,355
  7,667
  7,998
  8,348
  8,719
  9,112
  9,526
  9,964
  10,426
  10,913
  11,426
  11,967
  12,537
  13,137
  13,768
  14,433
  15,132
  15,867
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,329
  3,404
  3,489
  3,585
  3,692
  3,809
  3,936
  4,073
  4,222
  4,381
  4,477
  4,659
  4,852
  5,058
  5,276
  5,507
  5,752
  6,011
  6,284
  6,573
  6,877
  7,199
  7,537
  7,894
  8,270
  8,666
  9,082
  9,521
  9,982
  10,467
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,490
  1,528
  1,566
  1,605
  1,645
  1,686
  1,728
  1,772
  1,816
  1,861
  1,908
  1,955
  2,004
  2,054
  2,106
  2,158
  2,212
  2,268
  2,324
  2,383
  2,442
  2,503
  2,566
  2,630
  2,696
  2,763
  2,832
  2,903
  2,975
  3,050
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,684
  4,819
  4,932
  5,055
  5,190
  5,337
  5,495
  5,664
  5,845
  6,038
  6,242
  6,385
  6,614
  6,856
  7,112
  7,382
  7,665
  7,964
  8,279
  8,608
  8,956
  9,319
  9,702
  10,103
  10,524
  10,966
  11,429
  11,914
  12,424
  12,957
  13,517
Operating income, $m
  153
  115
  116
  122
  132
  147
  166
  190
  218
  250
  286
  402
  448
  499
  555
  616
  683
  755
  833
  918
  1,009
  1,106
  1,211
  1,323
  1,443
  1,571
  1,708
  1,854
  2,009
  2,174
  2,350
EBITDA, $m
  259
  224
  226
  233
  245
  261
  281
  306
  335
  369
  408
  451
  499
  552
  610
  674
  743
  818
  899
  986
  1,080
  1,181
  1,289
  1,405
  1,529
  1,661
  1,802
  1,953
  2,113
  2,283
  2,464
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
Earnings before tax, $m
  146
  106
  107
  112
  121
  135
  153
  175
  202
  233
  268
  382
  426
  475
  529
  588
  652
  722
  797
  879
  967
  1,062
  1,163
  1,272
  1,388
  1,513
  1,645
  1,787
  1,938
  2,098
  2,269
Tax expense, $m
  70
  29
  29
  30
  33
  36
  41
  47
  54
  63
  72
  103
  115
  128
  143
  159
  176
  195
  215
  237
  261
  287
  314
  343
  375
  408
  444
  482
  523
  567
  613
Net income, $m
  78
  77
  78
  82
  89
  99
  112
  128
  147
  170
  195
  279
  311
  347
  386
  429
  476
  527
  582
  642
  706
  775
  849
  928
  1,013
  1,104
  1,201
  1,304
  1,415
  1,532
  1,657

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  374
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,444
  2,111
  2,160
  2,215
  2,278
  2,347
  2,422
  2,505
  2,594
  2,690
  2,794
  2,904
  3,022
  3,147
  3,281
  3,422
  3,572
  3,731
  3,899
  4,076
  4,264
  4,461
  4,670
  4,889
  5,121
  5,365
  5,621
  5,891
  6,176
  6,475
  6,789
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,070
  2,111
  2,160
  2,215
  2,278
  2,347
  2,422
  2,505
  2,594
  2,690
  2,794
  2,904
  3,022
  3,147
  3,281
  3,422
  3,572
  3,731
  3,899
  4,076
  4,264
  4,461
  4,670
  4,889
  5,121
  5,365
  5,621
  5,891
  6,176
  6,475
  6,789
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
  2.337
Average production assets, $m
  333
  340
  348
  357
  367
  378
  391
  404
  418
  434
  450
  468
  487
  508
  529
  552
  576
  602
  629
  657
  688
  719
  753
  788
  826
  865
  906
  950
  996
  1,044
  1,095
Working capital, $m
  226
  261
  268
  274
  282
  291
  300
  310
  321
  333
  346
  360
  374
  390
  406
  424
  442
  462
  483
  505
  528
  553
  578
  606
  634
  664
  696
  730
  765
  802
  841
Total debt, $m
  618
  264
  287
  313
  342
  375
  410
  449
  491
  536
  584
  636
  691
  750
  813
  879
  949
  1,024
  1,103
  1,186
  1,274
  1,366
  1,464
  1,567
  1,676
  1,790
  1,910
  2,037
  2,170
  2,311
  2,458
Total liabilities, $m
  1,344
  990
  1,013
  1,039
  1,068
  1,101
  1,136
  1,175
  1,217
  1,262
  1,310
  1,362
  1,417
  1,476
  1,539
  1,605
  1,675
  1,750
  1,829
  1,912
  2,000
  2,092
  2,190
  2,293
  2,402
  2,516
  2,636
  2,763
  2,896
  3,037
  3,184
Total equity, $m
  1,100
  1,121
  1,147
  1,176
  1,209
  1,246
  1,286
  1,330
  1,377
  1,429
  1,483
  1,542
  1,605
  1,671
  1,742
  1,817
  1,897
  1,981
  2,070
  2,165
  2,264
  2,369
  2,480
  2,596
  2,719
  2,849
  2,985
  3,128
  3,279
  3,438
  3,605
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,444
  2,111
  2,160
  2,215
  2,277
  2,347
  2,422
  2,505
  2,594
  2,691
  2,793
  2,904
  3,022
  3,147
  3,281
  3,422
  3,572
  3,731
  3,899
  4,077
  4,264
  4,461
  4,670
  4,889
  5,121
  5,365
  5,621
  5,891
  6,175
  6,475
  6,789
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.562
  0.240
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.300
  0.320
  0.340
  0.360
  0.380
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.450
  0.470
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.351
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  78
  77
  78
  82
  89
  99
  112
  128
  147
  170
  195
  279
  311
  347
  386
  429
  476
  527
  582
  642
  706
  775
  849
  928
  1,013
  1,104
  1,201
  1,304
  1,415
  1,532
  1,657
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  106
  110
  110
  111
  112
  114
  115
  116
  118
  119
  121
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
Funds from operations, $m
  -50
  187
  188
  193
  201
  212
  227
  244
  265
  289
  317
  327
  362
  399
  441
  487
  536
  590
  648
  710
  778
  850
  928
  1,011
  1,099
  1,194
  1,295
  1,403
  1,518
  1,641
  1,771
Change in working capital, $m
  -117
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
Cash from operations, $m
  67
  208
  182
  186
  193
  204
  217
  234
  254
  277
  304
  314
  347
  384
  425
  469
  517
  570
  627
  688
  754
  825
  902
  983
  1,071
  1,164
  1,264
  1,370
  1,483
  1,604
  1,732
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -35
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
New CAPEX, $m
  -61
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -244
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
Free cash flow, $m
  -177
  166
  139
  141
  146
  154
  166
  180
  198
  218
  242
  249
  279
  313
  350
  391
  436
  484
  537
  594
  656
  722
  793
  869
  951
  1,039
  1,132
  1,232
  1,338
  1,452
  1,572
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  354
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
  127
  133
  140
  148
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -82
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  233
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
  127
  133
  140
  148
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  55
  186
  162
  167
  175
  187
  201
  219
  239
  263
  290
  301
  334
  372
  413
  457
  506
  559
  616
  677
  744
  815
  891
  973
  1,060
  1,153
  1,253
  1,359
  1,472
  1,592
  1,720
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -34
  -21
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -167
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  165
  136
  138
  142
  150
  161
  175
  192
  212
  236
  242
  272
  305
  342
  382
  426
  475
  527
  583
  644
  710
  780
  856
  937
  1,024
  1,116
  1,215
  1,321
  1,433
  1,553
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  158
  125
  120
  117
  116
  117
  118
  120
  122
  123
  115
  116
  116
  115
  112
  108
  103
  97
  90
  82
  73
  65
  56
  48
  40
  33
  26
  20
  16
  12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Magellan Health, Inc. engages in the healthcare management business in the United States. The company’s Healthcare segment engages in the management of behavioral healthcare services and employee assistance program services; management of other specialty areas, including diagnostic imaging and musculoskeletal management; and the integrated management of physical, behavioral, and pharmaceutical healthcare for special populations comprising individuals with serious mental illness, dual eligibles, long-term services and supports, and other populations with unique and often complex healthcare needs. This segment provides its healthcare services through its comprehensive network of medical and behavioral health professionals, clinics, hospitals, and ancillary service providers. Its Pharmacy Management segment offers products and solutions that provide clinical and financial management of pharmaceuticals paid under medical and pharmacy benefit programs, pharmacy benefit management (PBM) services, pharmacy benefit administration for state Medicaid and other government sponsored programs; pharmaceutical dispensing operations; clinical and formulary management programs; medical pharmacy management programs; and programs for the management of specialty drugs that treat complex conditions. The company provides services to health plans and other managed care organizations, employers, labor unions, various military and governmental agencies, and third party administrators. Magellan Health, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is based in Scottsdale, Arizona.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Magellan Health (MGLN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.3
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 277.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -15.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 19.5%
Total Debt to Equity 56.2%
Interest Coverage 17
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Total Capital 5.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Equity 7.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 5.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
EBITDA Margin 5.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Operating Margin 3.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Net Profit Margin 1.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Effective Tax Rate 47.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

MGLN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MGLN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4837 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Magellan Health. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Magellan Health. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MGLN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MGLN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Magellan Health, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Magellan Health.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MGLN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 67.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1454 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MGLN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Magellan Health.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Magellan Health. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MGLN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MGLN are equal to 6.9%.

Life of production assets of 9.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Magellan Health operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MGLN is equal to 5.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1100 million for Magellan Health - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.606 million for Magellan Health is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Magellan Health at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ TMG by Magellan Health to Expand Statewide in Wisconsin   [Apr-18-17 06:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Magellan Health to Host Investor Day in New York City   [Mar-21-17 06:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ 10 Largest Health Insurance Companies In America   [Jan-30-17 11:08AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Are Hedge Funds Right to be So Bullish on Itron, Inc. (ITRI)?   [Nov-28-16 05:48PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Gauge Capital to Sell Health-Care Company Veridicus for $74.5 Million   [Nov-22-16 03:34PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Stock chart of MGLN Financial statements of MGLN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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