Intrinsic value of Maiden Holdings - MHLD

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$12.35

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$12.35

 
Intrinsic value

$37.61

 
Up/down potential

+205%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as MHLD.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MHLD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.14
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.17
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
Revenue, $m
  0
  2,899
  3,072
  3,253
  3,442
  3,639
  3,845
  4,059
  4,284
  4,518
  4,763
  5,020
  5,288
  5,569
  5,863
  6,171
  6,493
  6,831
  7,185
  7,556
  7,945
  8,353
  8,781
  9,229
  9,700
  10,193
  10,711
  11,254
  11,824
  12,422
  13,050
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,733
  2,896
  3,067
  3,244
  3,430
  3,623
  3,825
  4,036
  4,257
  4,487
  4,723
  4,975
  5,240
  5,516
  5,806
  6,109
  6,427
  6,761
  7,110
  7,476
  7,860
  8,262
  8,684
  9,127
  9,591
  10,078
  10,589
  11,126
  11,688
  12,279
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,663
  2,733
  2,896
  3,067
  3,244
  3,430
  3,623
  3,825
  4,036
  4,257
  4,487
  4,723
  4,975
  5,240
  5,516
  5,806
  6,109
  6,427
  6,761
  7,110
  7,476
  7,860
  8,262
  8,684
  9,127
  9,591
  10,078
  10,589
  11,126
  11,688
  12,279
Operating income, $m
  69
  166
  176
  187
  198
  209
  221
  234
  247
  261
  276
  297
  312
  329
  346
  365
  384
  404
  425
  446
  469
  494
  519
  545
  573
  602
  633
  665
  699
  734
  771
EBITDA, $m
  89
  176
  186
  197
  209
  221
  233
  246
  260
  274
  289
  305
  321
  338
  356
  374
  394
  415
  436
  459
  482
  507
  533
  560
  589
  619
  650
  683
  718
  754
  792
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  28
  52
  77
  103
  130
  158
  187
  218
  250
  284
  319
  355
  394
  434
  476
  520
  566
  615
  665
  719
  774
  833
  894
  958
  1,025
  1,096
  1,170
  1,248
  1,330
  1,415
Earnings before tax, $m
  50
  137
  124
  110
  95
  80
  64
  47
  29
  11
  -8
  -22
  -43
  -65
  -88
  -111
  -137
  -163
  -190
  -219
  -249
  -281
  -314
  -349
  -385
  -423
  -463
  -505
  -549
  -596
  -644
Tax expense, $m
  2
  37
  33
  30
  26
  22
  17
  13
  8
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  49
  100
  91
  80
  69
  58
  47
  34
  22
  8
  -8
  -22
  -43
  -65
  -88
  -111
  -137
  -163
  -190
  -219
  -249
  -281
  -314
  -349
  -385
  -423
  -463
  -505
  -549
  -596
  -644

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,252
  6,633
  7,030
  7,445
  7,876
  8,327
  8,798
  9,289
  9,802
  10,339
  10,900
  11,487
  12,101
  12,743
  13,416
  14,120
  14,858
  15,632
  16,442
  17,291
  18,181
  19,115
  20,094
  21,120
  22,197
  23,326
  24,511
  25,754
  27,058
  28,426
  29,862
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,252
  6,633
  7,030
  7,445
  7,876
  8,327
  8,798
  9,289
  9,802
  10,339
  10,900
  11,487
  12,101
  12,743
  13,416
  14,120
  14,858
  15,632
  16,442
  17,291
  18,181
  19,115
  20,094
  21,120
  22,197
  23,326
  24,511
  25,754
  27,058
  28,426
  29,862
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
Average production assets, $m
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  60
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  351
  647
  958
  1,282
  1,619
  1,972
  2,340
  2,724
  3,125
  3,545
  3,984
  4,442
  4,923
  5,425
  5,951
  6,502
  7,079
  7,684
  8,318
  8,982
  9,678
  10,408
  11,173
  11,976
  12,818
  13,701
  14,627
  15,599
  16,619
  17,689
  18,812
Total liabilities, $m
  4,892
  5,187
  5,498
  5,822
  6,159
  6,512
  6,880
  7,264
  7,665
  8,085
  8,524
  8,982
  9,463
  9,965
  10,491
  11,042
  11,619
  12,224
  12,858
  13,522
  14,218
  14,948
  15,713
  16,516
  17,358
  18,241
  19,167
  20,139
  21,159
  22,229
  23,352
Total equity, $m
  1,361
  1,446
  1,533
  1,623
  1,717
  1,815
  1,918
  2,025
  2,137
  2,254
  2,376
  2,504
  2,638
  2,778
  2,925
  3,078
  3,239
  3,408
  3,584
  3,769
  3,964
  4,167
  4,380
  4,604
  4,839
  5,085
  5,343
  5,614
  5,899
  6,197
  6,510
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,253
  6,633
  7,031
  7,445
  7,876
  8,327
  8,798
  9,289
  9,802
  10,339
  10,900
  11,486
  12,101
  12,743
  13,416
  14,120
  14,858
  15,632
  16,442
  17,291
  18,182
  19,115
  20,093
  21,120
  22,197
  23,326
  24,510
  25,753
  27,058
  28,426
  29,862
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.258
  0.450
  0.620
  0.790
  0.940
  1.090
  1.220
  1.350
  1.460
  1.570
  1.680
  1.770
  1.870
  1.950
  2.030
  2.110
  2.190
  2.250
  2.320
  2.380
  2.440
  2.500
  2.550
  2.600
  2.650
  2.690
  2.740
  2.780
  2.820
  2.850
  2.890
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218
  0.218

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  49
  100
  91
  80
  69
  58
  47
  34
  22
  8
  -8
  -22
  -43
  -65
  -88
  -111
  -137
  -163
  -190
  -219
  -249
  -281
  -314
  -349
  -385
  -423
  -463
  -505
  -549
  -596
  -644
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  20
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Funds from operations, $m
  476
  111
  101
  91
  81
  70
  58
  46
  34
  21
  5
  -14
  -34
  -56
  -78
  -102
  -126
  -152
  -179
  -207
  -236
  -267
  -300
  -334
  -369
  -407
  -446
  -487
  -530
  -576
  -623
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  470
  110
  101
  91
  81
  70
  58
  46
  34
  21
  5
  -14
  -34
  -56
  -78
  -102
  -126
  -152
  -179
  -207
  -236
  -267
  -300
  -334
  -369
  -407
  -446
  -487
  -530
  -576
  -623
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -439
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
Free cash flow, $m
  31
  104
  95
  85
  74
  63
  51
  39
  26
  12
  -4
  -24
  -45
  -67
  -89
  -113
  -139
  -165
  -192
  -221
  -252
  -283
  -317
  -351
  -388
  -426
  -467
  -509
  -553
  -599
  -648
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  296
  311
  324
  338
  352
  368
  384
  401
  420
  439
  459
  480
  503
  526
  551
  577
  605
  634
  664
  696
  730
  765
  803
  842
  883
  926
  972
  1,020
  1,070
  1,123
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  296
  311
  324
  338
  352
  368
  384
  401
  420
  439
  459
  480
  503
  526
  551
  577
  605
  634
  664
  696
  730
  765
  803
  842
  883
  926
  972
  1,020
  1,070
  1,123
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  33
  400
  406
  409
  412
  415
  419
  423
  427
  432
  435
  435
  435
  436
  437
  437
  439
  440
  441
  443
  445
  447
  449
  451
  454
  457
  460
  463
  467
  471
  475
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -85
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -246
  -258
  -271
  -284
  -298
  -313
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  315
  319
  318
  318
  317
  316
  316
  315
  315
  313
  307
  302
  296
  290
  284
  278
  271
  265
  258
  251
  243
  235
  228
  219
  211
  202
  192
  183
  172
  162
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  302
  292
  277
  261
  246
  229
  213
  197
  181
  164
  146
  129
  112
  97
  83
  71
  59
  49
  40
  32
  25
  20
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Maiden Holdings, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides reinsurance solutions to regional and specialty insurers in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Diversified Reinsurance and AmTrust Reinsurance. The Diversified Reinsurance segment offers property and casualty reinsurance primarily writes treaties, on a quota share or excess of loss basis, and facultative risks, which are marketed through third-party intermediaries and on a direct basis. The AmTrust Reinsurance segment provides small commercial business insurance, which includes workersÂ’ compensation, commercial package, and other property and casualty insurance products; and specialty risk and extended warranty coverage for consumer and commercial goods, as well as custom designed coverage, including accidental damage plans and payment protection plans in connection with the sale of consumer and commercial goods. This segment also offers specialty program that comprises package products, general liability, commercial auto liability, excess and surplus lines programs, and other specialty commercial property and casualty insurance to small and middle market companies. In addition, the company provides auto and credit life insurance products through its insurer partners to retail clients. Maiden Holdings, Ltd. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Maiden Holdings (MHLD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.7
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 2.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 25.8%
Total Debt to Equity 25.8%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Return On Total Capital 2.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Equity 3.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 3.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Operating Margin 2.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Net Profit Margin 1.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Effective Tax Rate 4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Payout Ratio 157.1%

MHLD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MHLD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2732 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Maiden Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Maiden Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MHLD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MHLD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Maiden Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Maiden Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MHLD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MHLD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8% for Maiden Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Maiden Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MHLD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MHLD are equal to 0.8%.

Life of production assets of 4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Maiden Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MHLD is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1361 million for Maiden Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 87.143 million for Maiden Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Maiden Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Maiden Holdings Approved to File Annual Report on Form 10-K   [Mar-05-17 07:07PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Maiden Holdings reports 4Q loss   [Feb-27-17 07:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ Maiden Holdings, Ltd. (MHLD) Hedge Funds Are Snapping Up   [Dec-07-16 05:46AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of MHLD Financial statements of MHLD
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