Intrinsic value of Macquarie Infrastructure - MIC

Previous Close

$64.05

  Intrinsic Value

$2.73

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

Previous close

$64.05

 
Intrinsic value

$2.73

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MIC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.79
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
Revenue, $m
  1,652
  1,778
  1,908
  2,044
  2,185
  2,331
  2,483
  2,642
  2,807
  2,979
  3,157
  3,344
  3,538
  3,741
  3,953
  4,174
  4,405
  4,647
  4,899
  5,163
  5,440
  5,729
  6,032
  6,349
  6,681
  7,029
  7,393
  7,775
  8,176
  8,596
  9,036
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,824
  1,943
  2,067
  2,196
  2,329
  2,468
  2,613
  2,764
  2,920
  3,084
  3,051
  3,229
  3,414
  3,607
  3,809
  4,020
  4,240
  4,471
  4,712
  4,964
  5,228
  5,504
  5,793
  6,096
  6,414
  6,746
  7,095
  7,460
  7,843
  8,245
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,331
  1,824
  1,943
  2,067
  2,196
  2,329
  2,468
  2,613
  2,764
  2,920
  3,084
  3,051
  3,229
  3,414
  3,607
  3,809
  4,020
  4,240
  4,471
  4,712
  4,964
  5,228
  5,504
  5,793
  6,096
  6,414
  6,746
  7,095
  7,460
  7,843
  8,245
Operating income, $m
  321
  -47
  -35
  -24
  -11
  2
  15
  29
  43
  58
  74
  293
  310
  327
  346
  365
  386
  407
  429
  452
  476
  501
  528
  556
  585
  615
  647
  680
  716
  752
  791
EBITDA, $m
  612
  381
  408
  437
  468
  499
  532
  566
  601
  638
  676
  716
  757
  801
  846
  894
  943
  995
  1,049
  1,105
  1,164
  1,226
  1,291
  1,359
  1,430
  1,505
  1,583
  1,664
  1,750
  1,840
  1,934
Interest expense (income), $m
  109
  112
  125
  139
  153
  167
  182
  197
  214
  231
  248
  266
  285
  305
  326
  348
  370
  394
  419
  445
  472
  500
  529
  560
  593
  627
  662
  700
  739
  780
  822
Earnings before tax, $m
  226
  -159
  -161
  -162
  -164
  -165
  -167
  -169
  -170
  -172
  -174
  26
  24
  22
  20
  18
  15
  13
  10
  7
  5
  2
  -1
  -5
  -8
  -12
  -15
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -32
Tax expense, $m
  71
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  7
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  156
  -159
  -161
  -162
  -164
  -165
  -167
  -169
  -170
  -172
  -174
  19
  18
  16
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
  3
  1
  -1
  -5
  -8
  -12
  -15
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -32

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,559
  8,080
  8,673
  9,289
  9,930
  10,596
  11,288
  12,008
  12,758
  13,539
  14,352
  15,200
  16,084
  17,006
  17,969
  18,974
  20,024
  21,122
  22,270
  23,470
  24,726
  26,041
  27,417
  28,858
  30,367
  31,948
  33,606
  35,342
  37,163
  39,072
  41,073
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,514
  8,080
  8,673
  9,289
  9,930
  10,596
  11,288
  12,008
  12,758
  13,539
  14,352
  15,200
  16,084
  17,006
  17,969
  18,974
  20,024
  21,122
  22,270
  23,470
  24,726
  26,041
  27,417
  28,858
  30,367
  31,948
  33,606
  35,342
  37,163
  39,072
  41,073
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
Average production assets, $m
  5,143
  5,534
  5,940
  6,362
  6,800
  7,256
  7,731
  8,224
  8,738
  9,272
  9,829
  10,410
  11,015
  11,647
  12,306
  12,995
  13,714
  14,466
  15,252
  16,074
  16,934
  17,834
  18,777
  19,764
  20,797
  21,880
  23,015
  24,204
  25,451
  26,759
  28,129
Working capital, $m
  -6
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
Total debt, $m
  3,080
  3,387
  3,747
  4,122
  4,511
  4,916
  5,337
  5,775
  6,231
  6,706
  7,200
  7,715
  8,253
  8,814
  9,399
  10,010
  10,649
  11,316
  12,014
  12,744
  13,507
  14,307
  15,143
  16,020
  16,937
  17,899
  18,906
  19,962
  21,069
  22,229
  23,446
Total liabilities, $m
  4,606
  4,913
  5,273
  5,648
  6,037
  6,442
  6,863
  7,301
  7,757
  8,232
  8,726
  9,241
  9,779
  10,340
  10,925
  11,536
  12,175
  12,842
  13,540
  14,270
  15,033
  15,833
  16,669
  17,546
  18,463
  19,425
  20,432
  21,488
  22,595
  23,755
  24,972
Total equity, $m
  2,953
  3,167
  3,400
  3,641
  3,892
  4,153
  4,425
  4,707
  5,001
  5,307
  5,626
  5,958
  6,305
  6,666
  7,044
  7,438
  7,850
  8,280
  8,730
  9,200
  9,693
  10,208
  10,747
  11,312
  11,904
  12,524
  13,173
  13,854
  14,568
  15,316
  16,101
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,559
  8,080
  8,673
  9,289
  9,929
  10,595
  11,288
  12,008
  12,758
  13,539
  14,352
  15,199
  16,084
  17,006
  17,969
  18,974
  20,025
  21,122
  22,270
  23,470
  24,726
  26,041
  27,416
  28,858
  30,367
  31,949
  33,605
  35,342
  37,163
  39,071
  41,073
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.043
  1.070
  1.100
  1.130
  1.160
  1.180
  1.210
  1.230
  1.250
  1.260
  1.280
  1.290
  1.310
  1.320
  1.330
  1.350
  1.360
  1.370
  1.380
  1.390
  1.390
  1.400
  1.410
  1.420
  1.420
  1.430
  1.440
  1.440
  1.450
  1.450
  1.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.387
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  156
  -159
  -161
  -162
  -164
  -165
  -167
  -169
  -170
  -172
  -174
  19
  18
  16
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
  3
  1
  -1
  -5
  -8
  -12
  -15
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -32
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  291
  427
  444
  461
  479
  497
  517
  537
  558
  579
  602
  423
  448
  473
  500
  528
  557
  588
  620
  653
  688
  725
  763
  803
  845
  889
  936
  984
  1,035
  1,088
  1,143
Funds from operations, $m
  566
  268
  283
  299
  315
  332
  350
  368
  387
  407
  428
  442
  465
  490
  515
  541
  569
  597
  627
  659
  692
  726
  762
  799
  837
  878
  920
  965
  1,012
  1,060
  1,112
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  560
  269
  284
  300
  316
  333
  351
  369
  388
  408
  429
  444
  467
  491
  516
  543
  570
  599
  629
  661
  694
  728
  764
  801
  840
  880
  923
  968
  1,014
  1,063
  1,115
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -209
  -225
  -241
  -259
  -276
  -295
  -314
  -334
  -355
  -377
  -400
  -423
  -448
  -473
  -500
  -528
  -557
  -588
  -620
  -653
  -688
  -725
  -763
  -803
  -845
  -889
  -936
  -984
  -1,035
  -1,088
New CAPEX, $m
  -315
  -391
  -406
  -422
  -439
  -456
  -474
  -493
  -513
  -535
  -557
  -581
  -605
  -632
  -659
  -689
  -719
  -752
  -786
  -822
  -860
  -900
  -942
  -987
  -1,034
  -1,083
  -1,135
  -1,189
  -1,247
  -1,307
  -1,371
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -377
  -600
  -631
  -663
  -698
  -732
  -769
  -807
  -847
  -890
  -934
  -981
  -1,028
  -1,080
  -1,132
  -1,189
  -1,247
  -1,309
  -1,374
  -1,442
  -1,513
  -1,588
  -1,667
  -1,750
  -1,837
  -1,928
  -2,024
  -2,125
  -2,231
  -2,342
  -2,459
Free cash flow, $m
  183
  -331
  -347
  -364
  -381
  -399
  -418
  -438
  -459
  -482
  -505
  -536
  -562
  -588
  -617
  -646
  -677
  -710
  -745
  -781
  -820
  -860
  -903
  -949
  -997
  -1,048
  -1,101
  -1,157
  -1,216
  -1,278
  -1,344
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -168
  347
  361
  375
  389
  405
  421
  438
  456
  475
  494
  515
  537
  561
  585
  611
  639
  667
  698
  730
  764
  799
  837
  876
  918
  961
  1,007
  1,056
  1,107
  1,160
  1,217
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  415
  379
  393
  404
  415
  426
  438
  451
  464
  478
  493
  313
  329
  345
  363
  381
  401
  421
  443
  465
  489
  514
  541
  570
  600
  631
  665
  700
  737
  775
  816
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  235
  726
  754
  779
  804
  831
  859
  889
  920
  953
  987
  828
  866
  906
  948
  992
  1,040
  1,088
  1,141
  1,195
  1,253
  1,313
  1,378
  1,446
  1,518
  1,592
  1,672
  1,756
  1,844
  1,935
  2,033
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  418
  394
  407
  415
  423
  432
  441
  451
  461
  471
  483
  292
  305
  318
  332
  346
  362
  378
  395
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  520
  545
  571
  598
  627
  658
  690
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  77
  -379
  -393
  -404
  -415
  -426
  -438
  -451
  -464
  -478
  -493
  -332
  -347
  -362
  -377
  -394
  -412
  -430
  -450
  -471
  -492
  -515
  -541
  -570
  -600
  -631
  -665
  -700
  -737
  -775
  -816
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  21
  14
  11
  8
  5
  3
  0
  -4
  -7
  -10
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -87
  -94
  -102
  -110
  -118
  -127
Discount rate, %
 
  8.20
  8.61
  9.04
  9.49
  9.97
  10.47
  10.99
  11.54
  12.12
  12.72
  13.36
  14.02
  14.73
  15.46
  16.24
  17.05
  17.90
  18.79
  19.73
  20.72
  21.76
  22.84
  23.99
  25.19
  26.45
  27.77
  29.16
  30.61
  32.15
  33.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  19
  11
  8
  6
  3
  1
  0
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.5
  87.6
  82.3
  77.5
  73.2
  69.2
  65.6
  62.3
  59.2
  56.3
  54.7
  53.1
  51.6
  50.1
  48.7
  47.3
  46.0
  44.7
  43.4
  42.2
  41.0
  39.9
  38.8
  37.7
  36.6
  35.6
  34.6
  33.6
  32.7
  31.8

Macquarie Infrastructure Corporation owns and operates a group of businesses that provide services, such as bulk liquid terminalling and handling services. The Company operates through four segments: International-Matex Tank Terminals (IMTT), Atlantic Aviation, Contracted Power (CP) and MIC Hawaii. Its group of businesses also provides services, such as aircraft fueling, CP generation and utility gas services. Its group of businesses provides services to businesses, government agencies and individuals in the United States. IMTT segment provides bulk liquid terminal services in the United States. As of December 31, 2016, Atlantic Aviation operated Fixed based operations (FBOs) at 69 airports in the United States. The businesses in its CP segment sell electricity to off-takers, pursuant to multi-year contracts. MIC Hawaii segment consists of Hawaii Gas and several smaller businesses. Hawaii Gas consists of a gas utility and a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) distribution business.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Macquarie Infrastructure (MIC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 33.7
Price to Sales 3.2
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 62.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 23.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 102.9%
Total Debt to Equity 104.3%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Return On Total Capital 2.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Return On Equity 5.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 60.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.8%
EBITDA Margin 37.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48%
Operating Margin 19.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26%
Net Profit Margin 9.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.6%
Effective Tax Rate 31.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Payout Ratio 253.8%

MIC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MIC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1652 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Macquarie Infrastructure. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Macquarie Infrastructure. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MIC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.2%, whose default value for MIC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Macquarie Infrastructure, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Macquarie Infrastructure.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MIC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 103.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MIC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for Macquarie Infrastructure.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Macquarie Infrastructure. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MIC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MIC are equal to 311.3%.

Life of production assets of 24.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Macquarie Infrastructure operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MIC is equal to -0.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2953 million for Macquarie Infrastructure - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 85.047 million for Macquarie Infrastructure is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Macquarie Infrastructure at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.4 billion.

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Financial statements of MIC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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