Intrinsic value of Macquarie Infrastructure - MIC

Previous Close

$65.10

  Intrinsic Value

$2.81

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

Previous close

$65.10

 
Intrinsic value

$2.81

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MIC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.79
  10.30
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.80
  5.72
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
Revenue, $m
  1,652
  1,822
  2,000
  2,186
  2,380
  2,582
  2,791
  3,010
  3,236
  3,472
  3,717
  3,972
  4,236
  4,511
  4,798
  5,096
  5,406
  5,730
  6,067
  6,418
  6,785
  7,168
  7,568
  7,986
  8,423
  8,880
  9,357
  9,857
  10,380
  10,928
  11,502
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,865
  2,028
  2,197
  2,374
  2,558
  2,750
  2,949
  3,156
  3,371
  3,594
  3,624
  3,865
  4,117
  4,378
  4,650
  4,933
  5,228
  5,536
  5,857
  6,191
  6,541
  6,906
  7,287
  7,686
  8,102
  8,538
  8,995
  9,472
  9,972
  10,495
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,331
  1,865
  2,028
  2,197
  2,374
  2,558
  2,750
  2,949
  3,156
  3,371
  3,594
  3,624
  3,865
  4,117
  4,378
  4,650
  4,933
  5,228
  5,536
  5,857
  6,191
  6,541
  6,906
  7,287
  7,686
  8,102
  8,538
  8,995
  9,472
  9,972
  10,495
Operating income, $m
  321
  -43
  -27
  -11
  6
  24
  42
  61
  81
  101
  123
  348
  371
  395
  420
  446
  473
  501
  531
  562
  594
  627
  662
  699
  737
  777
  819
  863
  908
  956
  1,007
EBITDA, $m
  612
  390
  428
  468
  509
  553
  598
  644
  693
  743
  796
  850
  907
  966
  1,027
  1,091
  1,157
  1,226
  1,299
  1,374
  1,452
  1,534
  1,620
  1,710
  1,803
  1,901
  2,003
  2,110
  2,222
  2,339
  2,462
Interest expense (income), $m
  109
  112
  130
  148
  167
  187
  208
  229
  251
  274
  299
  324
  350
  377
  405
  434
  465
  496
  529
  564
  600
  637
  677
  717
  760
  805
  852
  900
  951
  1,005
  1,061
Earnings before tax, $m
  226
  -155
  -157
  -159
  -161
  -163
  -166
  -168
  -170
  -173
  -176
  24
  21
  18
  15
  12
  9
  5
  2
  -2
  -6
  -10
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -43
  -49
  -54
Tax expense, $m
  71
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  6
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  156
  -155
  -157
  -159
  -161
  -163
  -166
  -168
  -170
  -173
  -176
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  6
  4
  1
  -2
  -6
  -10
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -43
  -49
  -54

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,559
  8,283
  9,092
  9,937
  10,817
  11,734
  12,688
  13,680
  14,711
  15,782
  16,895
  18,052
  19,255
  20,506
  21,808
  23,162
  24,573
  26,043
  27,576
  29,174
  30,841
  32,582
  34,400
  36,300
  38,285
  40,362
  42,533
  44,805
  47,184
  49,674
  52,282
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,514
  8,283
  9,092
  9,937
  10,817
  11,734
  12,688
  13,680
  14,711
  15,782
  16,895
  18,052
  19,255
  20,506
  21,808
  23,162
  24,573
  26,043
  27,576
  29,174
  30,841
  32,582
  34,400
  36,300
  38,285
  40,362
  42,533
  44,805
  47,184
  49,674
  52,282
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
Average production assets, $m
  5,143
  5,672
  6,227
  6,805
  7,408
  8,036
  8,690
  9,369
  10,075
  10,809
  11,571
  12,363
  13,187
  14,044
  14,935
  15,863
  16,829
  17,836
  18,886
  19,980
  21,122
  22,314
  23,559
  24,860
  26,220
  27,642
  29,129
  30,685
  32,314
  34,020
  35,806
Working capital, $m
  -6
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -81
Total debt, $m
  3,080
  3,510
  4,002
  4,515
  5,051
  5,609
  6,189
  6,792
  7,418
  8,070
  8,746
  9,450
  10,181
  10,942
  11,733
  12,557
  13,415
  14,308
  15,240
  16,212
  17,226
  18,284
  19,389
  20,544
  21,752
  23,014
  24,334
  25,716
  27,162
  28,676
  30,261
Total liabilities, $m
  4,606
  5,036
  5,528
  6,041
  6,577
  7,135
  7,715
  8,318
  8,944
  9,596
  10,272
  10,976
  11,707
  12,468
  13,259
  14,083
  14,941
  15,834
  16,766
  17,738
  18,752
  19,810
  20,915
  22,070
  23,278
  24,540
  25,860
  27,242
  28,688
  30,202
  31,787
Total equity, $m
  2,953
  3,247
  3,564
  3,895
  4,240
  4,600
  4,974
  5,363
  5,767
  6,187
  6,623
  7,076
  7,548
  8,038
  8,549
  9,080
  9,633
  10,209
  10,810
  11,436
  12,090
  12,772
  13,485
  14,230
  15,008
  15,822
  16,673
  17,564
  18,496
  19,472
  20,494
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,559
  8,283
  9,092
  9,936
  10,817
  11,735
  12,689
  13,681
  14,711
  15,783
  16,895
  18,052
  19,255
  20,506
  21,808
  23,163
  24,574
  26,043
  27,576
  29,174
  30,842
  32,582
  34,400
  36,300
  38,286
  40,362
  42,533
  44,806
  47,184
  49,674
  52,281
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.043
  1.080
  1.120
  1.160
  1.190
  1.220
  1.240
  1.270
  1.290
  1.300
  1.320
  1.340
  1.350
  1.360
  1.370
  1.380
  1.390
  1.400
  1.410
  1.420
  1.420
  1.430
  1.440
  1.440
  1.450
  1.450
  1.460
  1.460
  1.470
  1.470
  1.480
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.387
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  156
  -155
  -157
  -159
  -161
  -163
  -166
  -168
  -170
  -173
  -176
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  6
  4
  1
  -2
  -6
  -10
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -43
  -49
  -54
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  291
  433
  456
  479
  504
  529
  556
  583
  612
  642
  673
  503
  536
  571
  607
  645
  684
  725
  768
  812
  859
  907
  958
  1,011
  1,066
  1,124
  1,184
  1,247
  1,314
  1,383
  1,456
Funds from operations, $m
  566
  278
  298
  320
  342
  366
  390
  415
  442
  469
  497
  520
  551
  584
  618
  653
  690
  729
  769
  810
  853
  897
  944
  992
  1,043
  1,096
  1,152
  1,210
  1,271
  1,334
  1,401
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  560
  279
  300
  321
  344
  367
  391
  417
  443
  470
  499
  522
  553
  586
  620
  656
  693
  731
  771
  812
  855
  900
  946
  995
  1,046
  1,099
  1,155
  1,213
  1,274
  1,338
  1,405
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -209
  -231
  -253
  -277
  -301
  -327
  -353
  -381
  -410
  -439
  -470
  -503
  -536
  -571
  -607
  -645
  -684
  -725
  -768
  -812
  -859
  -907
  -958
  -1,011
  -1,066
  -1,124
  -1,184
  -1,247
  -1,314
  -1,383
New CAPEX, $m
  -315
  -529
  -554
  -579
  -603
  -628
  -653
  -679
  -706
  -734
  -762
  -792
  -824
  -857
  -891
  -928
  -966
  -1,007
  -1,049
  -1,095
  -1,142
  -1,192
  -1,245
  -1,301
  -1,360
  -1,422
  -1,487
  -1,556
  -1,629
  -1,705
  -1,786
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -377
  -738
  -785
  -832
  -880
  -929
  -980
  -1,032
  -1,087
  -1,144
  -1,201
  -1,262
  -1,327
  -1,393
  -1,462
  -1,535
  -1,611
  -1,691
  -1,774
  -1,863
  -1,954
  -2,051
  -2,152
  -2,259
  -2,371
  -2,488
  -2,611
  -2,740
  -2,876
  -3,019
  -3,169
Free cash flow, $m
  183
  -460
  -485
  -511
  -536
  -562
  -589
  -616
  -644
  -673
  -703
  -741
  -773
  -807
  -842
  -879
  -919
  -960
  -1,003
  -1,050
  -1,099
  -1,151
  -1,206
  -1,264
  -1,324
  -1,389
  -1,456
  -1,527
  -1,602
  -1,681
  -1,764
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -168
  470
  492
  514
  535
  558
  580
  603
  627
  651
  677
  703
  731
  761
  791
  824
  858
  894
  932
  972
  1,014
  1,058
  1,105
  1,155
  1,207
  1,262
  1,320
  1,382
  1,446
  1,514
  1,585
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  415
  454
  474
  490
  506
  523
  540
  557
  575
  593
  612
  436
  456
  477
  499
  522
  547
  573
  600
  629
  660
  692
  727
  763
  801
  842
  884
  928
  975
  1,025
  1,077
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  235
  924
  966
  1,004
  1,041
  1,081
  1,120
  1,160
  1,202
  1,244
  1,289
  1,139
  1,187
  1,238
  1,290
  1,346
  1,405
  1,467
  1,532
  1,601
  1,674
  1,750
  1,832
  1,918
  2,008
  2,104
  2,204
  2,310
  2,421
  2,539
  2,662
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  418
  464
  481
  493
  506
  518
  531
  544
  558
  571
  586
  399
  414
  431
  448
  467
  486
  506
  528
  551
  575
  600
  626
  654
  684
  715
  748
  783
  819
  858
  898
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  77
  -454
  -474
  -490
  -506
  -523
  -540
  -557
  -575
  -593
  -612
  -454
  -472
  -490
  -510
  -531
  -553
  -576
  -601
  -629
  -660
  -692
  -727
  -763
  -801
  -842
  -884
  -928
  -975
  -1,025
  -1,077
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  15
  7
  3
  -1
  -4
  -9
  -13
  -17
  -21
  -26
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -78
  -85
  -93
  -100
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -136
  -146
  -156
  -167
  -178
Discount rate, %
 
  8.20
  8.61
  9.04
  9.49
  9.97
  10.47
  10.99
  11.54
  12.12
  12.72
  13.36
  14.02
  14.73
  15.46
  16.24
  17.05
  17.90
  18.79
  19.73
  20.72
  21.76
  22.84
  23.99
  25.19
  26.45
  27.77
  29.16
  30.61
  32.15
  33.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  14
  6
  2
  0
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  92.2
  85.4
  79.4
  74.1
  69.4
  65.2
  61.4
  58.0
  54.9
  52.1
  50.3
  48.6
  46.9
  45.4
  43.9
  42.5
  41.2
  39.9
  38.6
  37.5
  36.3
  35.2
  34.2
  33.1
  32.1
  31.2
  30.3
  29.4
  28.5
  27.7

Macquarie Infrastructure Corporation owns and operates a group of businesses that provide services, such as bulk liquid terminalling and handling services. The Company operates through four segments: International-Matex Tank Terminals (IMTT), Atlantic Aviation, Contracted Power (CP) and MIC Hawaii. Its group of businesses also provides services, such as aircraft fueling, CP generation and utility gas services. Its group of businesses provides services to businesses, government agencies and individuals in the United States. IMTT segment provides bulk liquid terminal services in the United States. As of December 31, 2016, Atlantic Aviation operated Fixed based operations (FBOs) at 69 airports in the United States. The businesses in its CP segment sell electricity to off-takers, pursuant to multi-year contracts. MIC Hawaii segment consists of Hawaii Gas and several smaller businesses. Hawaii Gas consists of a gas utility and a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) distribution business.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Macquarie Infrastructure (MIC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 34.2
Price to Sales 3.2
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 62.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 23.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 102.9%
Total Debt to Equity 104.3%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Return On Total Capital 2.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Return On Equity 5.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 60.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.8%
EBITDA Margin 37.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48%
Operating Margin 19.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26%
Net Profit Margin 9.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.6%
Effective Tax Rate 31.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Payout Ratio 253.8%

MIC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MIC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1652 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Macquarie Infrastructure. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Macquarie Infrastructure. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MIC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.2%, whose default value for MIC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Macquarie Infrastructure, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Macquarie Infrastructure.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MIC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 103.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MIC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for Macquarie Infrastructure.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Macquarie Infrastructure. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MIC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MIC are equal to 311.3%.

Life of production assets of 24.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Macquarie Infrastructure operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MIC is equal to -0.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2953 million for Macquarie Infrastructure - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 82.675 million for Macquarie Infrastructure is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Macquarie Infrastructure at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.4 billion.

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Financial statements of MIC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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