Intrinsic value of Michaels Cos. - MIK

Previous Close

$25.06

  Intrinsic Value

$3.28

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-87%

Previous close

$25.06

 
Intrinsic value

$3.28

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MIK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.78
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  5,197
  5,301
  5,423
  5,562
  5,719
  5,892
  6,082
  6,289
  6,514
  6,755
  7,014
  7,292
  7,588
  7,903
  8,238
  8,593
  8,970
  9,368
  9,790
  10,235
  10,706
  11,202
  11,725
  12,277
  12,858
  13,470
  14,115
  14,793
  15,507
  16,258
  17,048
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,532
  4,636
  4,755
  4,888
  5,036
  5,198
  5,375
  5,566
  5,772
  5,993
  6,218
  6,470
  6,739
  7,024
  7,327
  7,649
  7,988
  8,348
  8,728
  9,129
  9,552
  9,998
  10,468
  10,964
  11,486
  12,036
  12,614
  13,223
  13,863
  14,537
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,489
  4,532
  4,636
  4,755
  4,888
  5,036
  5,198
  5,375
  5,566
  5,772
  5,993
  6,218
  6,470
  6,739
  7,024
  7,327
  7,649
  7,988
  8,348
  8,728
  9,129
  9,552
  9,998
  10,468
  10,964
  11,486
  12,036
  12,614
  13,223
  13,863
  14,537
Operating income, $m
  708
  769
  787
  807
  830
  856
  884
  914
  947
  983
  1,021
  1,074
  1,118
  1,164
  1,213
  1,266
  1,321
  1,380
  1,442
  1,508
  1,577
  1,650
  1,727
  1,808
  1,894
  1,984
  2,079
  2,179
  2,284
  2,395
  2,511
EBITDA, $m
  824
  863
  883
  906
  932
  960
  991
  1,024
  1,061
  1,100
  1,143
  1,188
  1,236
  1,287
  1,342
  1,400
  1,461
  1,526
  1,595
  1,667
  1,744
  1,825
  1,910
  2,000
  2,094
  2,194
  2,299
  2,410
  2,526
  2,648
  2,777
Interest expense (income), $m
  113
  112
  25
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  90
  96
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  141
  149
  159
  169
Earnings before tax, $m
  582
  657
  762
  781
  802
  826
  851
  879
  910
  942
  977
  1,027
  1,067
  1,109
  1,154
  1,202
  1,253
  1,307
  1,364
  1,424
  1,487
  1,554
  1,625
  1,699
  1,777
  1,860
  1,947
  2,038
  2,135
  2,236
  2,342
Tax expense, $m
  204
  177
  206
  211
  217
  223
  230
  237
  246
  254
  264
  277
  288
  299
  312
  325
  338
  353
  368
  384
  402
  420
  439
  459
  480
  502
  526
  550
  576
  604
  632
Net income, $m
  378
  480
  556
  570
  586
  603
  622
  642
  664
  688
  713
  749
  779
  810
  843
  878
  915
  954
  996
  1,039
  1,086
  1,135
  1,186
  1,240
  1,298
  1,358
  1,421
  1,488
  1,558
  1,632
  1,710

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  299
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,148
  1,886
  1,929
  1,979
  2,034
  2,096
  2,164
  2,237
  2,317
  2,403
  2,495
  2,594
  2,699
  2,811
  2,931
  3,057
  3,191
  3,333
  3,483
  3,641
  3,808
  3,985
  4,171
  4,367
  4,574
  4,792
  5,021
  5,262
  5,516
  5,784
  6,065
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,849
  1,886
  1,929
  1,979
  2,034
  2,096
  2,164
  2,237
  2,317
  2,403
  2,495
  2,594
  2,699
  2,811
  2,931
  3,057
  3,191
  3,333
  3,483
  3,641
  3,808
  3,985
  4,171
  4,367
  4,574
  4,792
  5,021
  5,262
  5,516
  5,784
  6,065
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.812
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
  2.811
Average production assets, $m
  408
  413
  423
  434
  446
  460
  474
  491
  508
  527
  547
  569
  592
  616
  643
  670
  700
  731
  764
  798
  835
  874
  915
  958
  1,003
  1,051
  1,101
  1,154
  1,210
  1,268
  1,330
Working capital, $m
  519
  254
  260
  267
  274
  283
  292
  302
  313
  324
  337
  350
  364
  379
  395
  412
  431
  450
  470
  491
  514
  538
  563
  589
  617
  647
  677
  710
  744
  780
  818
Total debt, $m
  2,754
  605
  644
  689
  739
  794
  855
  922
  993
  1,071
  1,154
  1,243
  1,337
  1,438
  1,545
  1,659
  1,780
  1,907
  2,042
  2,185
  2,336
  2,494
  2,662
  2,839
  3,025
  3,221
  3,427
  3,644
  3,873
  4,113
  4,366
Total liabilities, $m
  3,846
  1,697
  1,736
  1,781
  1,831
  1,886
  1,947
  2,014
  2,085
  2,163
  2,246
  2,335
  2,429
  2,530
  2,637
  2,751
  2,872
  2,999
  3,134
  3,277
  3,428
  3,586
  3,754
  3,931
  4,117
  4,313
  4,519
  4,736
  4,965
  5,205
  5,458
Total equity, $m
  -1,698
  189
  193
  198
  203
  210
  216
  224
  232
  240
  250
  259
  270
  281
  293
  306
  319
  333
  348
  364
  381
  398
  417
  437
  457
  479
  502
  526
  552
  578
  606
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,148
  1,886
  1,929
  1,979
  2,034
  2,096
  2,163
  2,238
  2,317
  2,403
  2,496
  2,594
  2,699
  2,811
  2,930
  3,057
  3,191
  3,332
  3,482
  3,641
  3,809
  3,984
  4,171
  4,368
  4,574
  4,792
  5,021
  5,262
  5,517
  5,783
  6,064
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.622
  3.210
  3.340
  3.480
  3.630
  3.790
  3.950
  4.120
  4.290
  4.460
  4.620
  4.790
  4.950
  5.120
  5.270
  5.430
  5.580
  5.720
  5.860
  6.000
  6.130
  6.260
  6.380
  6.500
  6.610
  6.720
  6.830
  6.920
  7.020
  7.110
  7.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.080
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  378
  480
  556
  570
  586
  603
  622
  642
  664
  688
  713
  749
  779
  810
  843
  878
  915
  954
  996
  1,039
  1,086
  1,135
  1,186
  1,240
  1,298
  1,358
  1,421
  1,488
  1,558
  1,632
  1,710
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  116
  95
  96
  99
  101
  104
  107
  110
  114
  117
  121
  114
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  266
Funds from operations, $m
  610
  574
  653
  669
  687
  707
  728
  752
  778
  805
  835
  863
  897
  933
  971
  1,012
  1,055
  1,100
  1,148
  1,199
  1,253
  1,309
  1,369
  1,432
  1,498
  1,568
  1,641
  1,719
  1,800
  1,886
  1,976
Change in working capital, $m
  46
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
Cash from operations, $m
  564
  569
  647
  662
  679
  698
  719
  742
  767
  794
  822
  850
  883
  918
  955
  995
  1,037
  1,081
  1,128
  1,178
  1,230
  1,285
  1,344
  1,405
  1,470
  1,539
  1,610
  1,686
  1,766
  1,850
  1,938
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -82
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -254
New CAPEX, $m
  -114
  -6
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -267
  -88
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -121
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -157
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -216
  -226
  -237
  -249
  -260
  -273
  -287
  -301
  -316
Free cash flow, $m
  297
  482
  555
  567
  580
  595
  612
  631
  651
  673
  697
  719
  746
  775
  806
  838
  873
  910
  949
  990
  1,034
  1,080
  1,128
  1,179
  1,233
  1,290
  1,350
  1,413
  1,479
  1,549
  1,623
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -19
  -2,118
  39
  45
  50
  56
  61
  66
  72
  77
  83
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
  217
  229
  240
  253
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -388
  1,675
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -408
  -443
  39
  45
  50
  56
  61
  66
  72
  77
  83
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
  217
  229
  240
  253
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -111
  39
  594
  611
  630
  651
  673
  697
  723
  750
  780
  808
  841
  876
  913
  952
  994
  1,038
  1,084
  1,133
  1,184
  1,239
  1,296
  1,356
  1,419
  1,486
  1,556
  1,630
  1,708
  1,790
  1,876
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -26
  -2,155
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  268
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -1,848
  589
  606
  625
  645
  667
  690
  715
  742
  771
  798
  830
  865
  901
  940
  980
  1,023
  1,069
  1,117
  1,168
  1,221
  1,277
  1,336
  1,399
  1,464
  1,533
  1,606
  1,683
  1,763
  1,847
Discount rate, %
 
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.85
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.48
  21.50
  22.58
  23.71
  24.89
  26.14
  27.44
  28.81
  30.25
  31.77
  33.36
  35.02
  36.77
  38.61
  40.54
  42.57
  44.70
  46.93
  49.28
  51.75
  54.33
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -1,632
  455
  403
  354
  306
  262
  221
  183
  149
  120
  94
  72
  54
  40
  29
  20
  14
  9
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

The Michaels Companies, Inc. (Michaels) is an arts and crafts specialty retailer in North America. The Company's segments include Michaels-U.S., Michaels-Canada, Aaron Brothers, Pat Catan's and Darice. As of January 28, 2017, the Company operated 1,223 Michaels retail stores in 49 states and Canada, with approximately 18,000 average square feet of selling space per store. It operated 109 Aaron Brothers stores in nine states, with approximately 5,500 average square feet of selling space and 35 Pat Catan's stores in five states, with approximately 32,000 average square feet of selling space, as of January 28, 2017. The Company also operates an international wholesale business under the Darice brand name. The Company's stores purchase custom frames, framing supplies and mats from its framing operation and subsidiary, Artistree, Inc. (Artistree), which consists of a manufacturing facility and four regional processing centers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Michaels Cos. (MIK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.8
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book -2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -8.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -160.4%
Total Debt to Equity -162.2%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 21.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.1%
Return On Total Capital 36%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
Return On Equity -22.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.6%
Asset Turnover 2.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.7%
EBITDA Margin 15.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Operating Margin 13.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Net Profit Margin 7.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Effective Tax Rate 35.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

MIK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MIK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5197 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Michaels Cos.. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Michaels Cos.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MIK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.2%, whose default value for MIK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Michaels Cos., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Michaels Cos..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MIK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MIK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for Michaels Cos..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Michaels Cos.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MIK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MIK are equal to 7.8%.

Life of production assets of 4.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Michaels Cos. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MIK is equal to 4.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-1698 million for Michaels Cos. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 178.173 million for Michaels Cos. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Michaels Cos. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.5 billion.

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Financial statements of MIK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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