Intrinsic value of Mimecast - MIME

Previous Close

$28.09

  Intrinsic Value

$7.18

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-74%

Previous close

$28.09

 
Intrinsic value

$7.18

 
Up/down potential

-74%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MIME stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  31.69
  41.50
  37.85
  34.57
  31.61
  28.95
  26.55
  24.40
  22.46
  20.71
  19.14
  17.73
  16.45
  15.31
  14.28
  13.35
  12.52
  11.76
  11.09
  10.48
  9.93
  9.44
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
Revenue, $m
  187
  265
  365
  491
  646
  833
  1,054
  1,311
  1,606
  1,938
  2,309
  2,719
  3,166
  3,651
  4,172
  4,729
  5,321
  5,947
  6,606
  7,299
  8,023
  8,781
  9,570
  10,393
  11,249
  12,139
  13,064
  14,025
  15,024
  16,062
  17,141
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  269
  370
  498
  655
  845
  1,069
  1,329
  1,628
  1,965
  2,341
  2,755
  3,208
  3,700
  4,228
  4,792
  5,392
  6,026
  6,694
  7,396
  8,130
  8,898
  9,698
  10,531
  11,399
  12,300
  13,238
  14,212
  15,224
  16,276
  17,370
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  197
  269
  370
  498
  655
  845
  1,069
  1,329
  1,628
  1,965
  2,341
  2,755
  3,208
  3,700
  4,228
  4,792
  5,392
  6,026
  6,694
  7,396
  8,130
  8,898
  9,698
  10,531
  11,399
  12,300
  13,238
  14,212
  15,224
  16,276
  17,370
Operating income, $m
  -10
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -22
  -26
  -31
  -36
  -42
  -49
  -56
  -63
  -71
  -79
  -88
  -97
  -107
  -117
  -128
  -138
  -150
  -162
  -174
  -187
  -200
  -214
  -228
EBITDA, $m
  2
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  19
  24
  29
  35
  42
  50
  58
  67
  76
  86
  97
  109
  121
  133
  147
  160
  175
  190
  206
  222
  239
  256
  275
  294
  313
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  3
  6
  9
  12
  16
  21
  26
  32
  38
  45
  53
  61
  70
  79
  89
  99
  110
  121
  133
  146
  159
  172
  186
  200
  215
  231
  247
Earnings before tax, $m
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -9
  -13
  -17
  -23
  -30
  -38
  -47
  -57
  -68
  -81
  -94
  -109
  -124
  -141
  -158
  -177
  -197
  -217
  -238
  -261
  -284
  -308
  -334
  -360
  -387
  -416
  -445
  -476
Tax expense, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -5
  -4
  -5
  -9
  -13
  -17
  -23
  -30
  -38
  -47
  -57
  -68
  -81
  -94
  -109
  -124
  -141
  -158
  -177
  -197
  -217
  -238
  -261
  -284
  -308
  -334
  -360
  -387
  -416
  -445
  -476

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  112
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  205
  132
  181
  244
  321
  414
  524
  652
  799
  964
  1,148
  1,352
  1,574
  1,815
  2,075
  2,352
  2,646
  2,957
  3,285
  3,629
  3,990
  4,366
  4,759
  5,168
  5,594
  6,036
  6,496
  6,974
  7,471
  7,987
  8,524
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  93
  132
  181
  244
  321
  414
  524
  652
  799
  964
  1,148
  1,352
  1,574
  1,815
  2,075
  2,352
  2,646
  2,957
  3,285
  3,629
  3,990
  4,366
  4,759
  5,168
  5,594
  6,036
  6,496
  6,974
  7,471
  7,987
  8,524
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.011
  2.008
  2.017
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.011
  2.011
  2.010
  2.010
  2.011
  2.011
  2.011
  2.012
  2.011
  2.011
  2.011
  2.011
  2.011
  2.011
  2.011
  2.011
  2.011
  2.011
  2.011
  2.011
  2.011
  2.011
  2.011
  2.011
  2.011
Average production assets, $m
  30
  42
  58
  78
  102
  132
  167
  207
  254
  306
  365
  430
  500
  577
  659
  747
  841
  940
  1,044
  1,153
  1,268
  1,387
  1,512
  1,642
  1,777
  1,918
  2,064
  2,216
  2,374
  2,538
  2,708
Working capital, $m
  56
  -76
  -105
  -142
  -187
  -241
  -305
  -379
  -464
  -560
  -667
  -786
  -915
  -1,055
  -1,206
  -1,367
  -1,538
  -1,719
  -1,909
  -2,109
  -2,319
  -2,538
  -2,766
  -3,004
  -3,251
  -3,508
  -3,775
  -4,053
  -4,342
  -4,642
  -4,954
Total debt, $m
  2
  -3
  42
  99
  168
  252
  351
  466
  598
  747
  913
  1,096
  1,296
  1,513
  1,746
  1,996
  2,260
  2,541
  2,836
  3,145
  3,470
  3,809
  4,162
  4,530
  4,913
  5,312
  5,726
  6,156
  6,603
  7,067
  7,550
Total liabilities, $m
  123
  118
  163
  220
  289
  373
  472
  587
  719
  868
  1,034
  1,217
  1,417
  1,634
  1,867
  2,117
  2,381
  2,662
  2,957
  3,266
  3,591
  3,930
  4,283
  4,651
  5,034
  5,433
  5,847
  6,277
  6,724
  7,188
  7,671
Total equity, $m
  82
  13
  18
  24
  32
  41
  52
  65
  80
  96
  115
  135
  157
  182
  207
  235
  265
  296
  329
  363
  399
  437
  476
  517
  559
  604
  650
  697
  747
  799
  852
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  205
  131
  181
  244
  321
  414
  524
  652
  799
  964
  1,149
  1,352
  1,574
  1,816
  2,074
  2,352
  2,646
  2,958
  3,286
  3,629
  3,990
  4,367
  4,759
  5,168
  5,593
  6,037
  6,497
  6,974
  7,471
  7,987
  8,523
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.024
  -0.200
  2.330
  4.040
  5.230
  6.080
  6.690
  7.140
  7.480
  7.740
  7.950
  8.110
  8.230
  8.330
  8.420
  8.490
  8.540
  8.590
  8.630
  8.670
  8.700
  8.720
  8.750
  8.770
  8.780
  8.800
  8.810
  8.830
  8.840
  8.850
  8.860
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.323
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -5
  -4
  -5
  -9
  -13
  -17
  -23
  -30
  -38
  -47
  -57
  -68
  -81
  -94
  -109
  -124
  -141
  -158
  -177
  -197
  -217
  -238
  -261
  -284
  -308
  -334
  -360
  -387
  -416
  -445
  -476
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  12
  9
  12
  16
  21
  27
  34
  42
  51
  62
  73
  86
  100
  115
  132
  149
  168
  188
  209
  231
  254
  277
  302
  328
  355
  384
  413
  443
  475
  508
  542
Funds from operations, $m
  55
  5
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
Change in working capital, $m
  22
  -22
  -29
  -36
  -45
  -54
  -64
  -74
  -85
  -96
  -107
  -118
  -129
  -140
  -151
  -161
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -228
  -238
  -247
  -257
  -267
  -278
  -289
  -300
  -312
Cash from operations, $m
  33
  27
  36
  44
  53
  63
  74
  86
  98
  111
  123
  136
  149
  161
  174
  186
  198
  210
  222
  234
  246
  258
  270
  282
  294
  307
  320
  334
  348
  362
  378
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -8
  -12
  -16
  -20
  -26
  -33
  -41
  -51
  -61
  -73
  -86
  -100
  -115
  -132
  -149
  -168
  -188
  -209
  -231
  -254
  -277
  -302
  -328
  -355
  -384
  -413
  -443
  -475
  -508
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -12
  -16
  -20
  -25
  -30
  -35
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -65
  -71
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -85
  -18
  -24
  -32
  -41
  -50
  -61
  -74
  -88
  -104
  -120
  -138
  -157
  -177
  -197
  -220
  -243
  -267
  -292
  -318
  -346
  -374
  -402
  -432
  -463
  -496
  -530
  -565
  -601
  -639
  -679
Free cash flow, $m
  -52
  9
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  12
  10
  7
  3
  -2
  -8
  -15
  -24
  -34
  -45
  -57
  -70
  -84
  -99
  -115
  -132
  -150
  -169
  -189
  -210
  -231
  -253
  -276
  -300
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  -3
  45
  56
  69
  84
  99
  115
  132
  149
  166
  183
  200
  217
  233
  249
  265
  280
  295
  310
  324
  339
  353
  368
  383
  398
  414
  430
  447
  465
  483
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  45
  10
  15
  20
  27
  34
  43
  53
  64
  76
  89
  103
  118
  134
  152
  170
  189
  210
  231
  253
  276
  300
  325
  351
  378
  406
  435
  465
  497
  529
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  42
  55
  71
  89
  111
  133
  158
  185
  213
  242
  272
  303
  335
  367
  401
  435
  469
  505
  541
  577
  615
  653
  693
  734
  776
  820
  865
  912
  962
  1,012
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -55
  52
  67
  84
  103
  124
  146
  170
  195
  220
  245
  270
  295
  320
  344
  368
  391
  413
  435
  457
  478
  500
  521
  543
  565
  587
  610
  634
  659
  685
  712
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -45
  -10
  -15
  -20
  -27
  -34
  -43
  -53
  -64
  -76
  -89
  -103
  -118
  -134
  -152
  -170
  -189
  -210
  -231
  -253
  -276
  -300
  -325
  -351
  -378
  -406
  -435
  -465
  -497
  -529
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  110
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  116
  56
  69
  83
  97
  112
  127
  142
  156
  169
  182
  192
  202
  209
  216
  220
  224
  225
  226
  225
  224
  221
  218
  214
  209
  204
  199
  194
  188
  183
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  112
  52
  60
  68
  75
  81
  86
  89
  90
  89
  86
  82
  77
  70
  63
  56
  49
  41
  35
  29
  23
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  46.4
  42.9
  39.6
  36.6
  33.8
  31.2
  28.9
  26.7
  24.8
  23.0
  21.4
  19.9
  18.5
  17.2
  16.1
  15.0
  14.0
  13.1
  12.2
  11.4
  10.7
  10.0
  9.4
  8.8
  8.2
  7.7
  7.2
  6.8
  6.4

Mimecast Limited is a provider of cloud security and risk management services for corporate information and e-mail. The Company's suite of cloud services protects customers from the business and data security risks. It also mitigates the business disruption that e-mail failure or downtime causes. In addition, its archiving services secure, store and manage critical corporate communications and information to address the compliance and e-discovery requirements. It has developed its cloud architecture to offer customers e-mail security, continuity and archiving capabilities in a single service. It has developed an operating system (OS) called Mime OS for native cloud services. It protects inbound and outbound e-mail from malware, spam, threats, e-mail denial of service (DoS) and distributed denial of service (DDoS), data leaks and other security threats. It also offers service bundles, and Mimecast mobile and desktop applications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Mimecast (MIME)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -304.6
Price to Sales 8.1
Price to Book 18.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 46.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 101.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 31.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 28.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 56
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 2.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Return On Total Capital -5.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.9%
Return On Equity -6.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.5%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 72.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 70.4%
EBITDA Margin 4.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Operating Margin -5.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1%
Net Profit Margin -2.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.6%
Effective Tax Rate -66.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -38.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

MIME stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MIME stock intrinsic value calculation we used $187 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Mimecast. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Mimecast. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MIME stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 41.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MIME is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Mimecast, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Mimecast.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MIME stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 101.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MIME stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Mimecast.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Mimecast. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MIME stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MIME are equal to 15.8%.

Life of production assets of 2.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Mimecast operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MIME is equal to -28.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $82 million for Mimecast - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 55.924 million for Mimecast is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Mimecast at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Some Secure Names in Cybersecurity   [Nov-20-17 02:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Mimecast reports 2Q loss   [06:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mimecast Completes SOC 2 Type II Attestation   [Nov-07-17 06:31PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Mimecast to Present at the UBS Global Technology Conference   [Nov-02-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hackers know humans are 'weakest links': Mimecast CEO   [Sep-20-17 07:14PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Mimecast reports 1Q loss   [Aug-08-17 10:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mimecast Announces First Quarter 2018 Financial Results   [Aug-07-17 04:11PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Mimecast North America Announces Partnership with Insight   [Jun-28-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Mimecast reports 4Q loss   [May-09-17 05:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mimecast's Enterprise Potential Is Underappreciated   [Apr-13-17 09:57AM  Benzinga]
▶ Mimecast Announces New Board Member Aron Ain   [Apr-03-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Should You Buy Mimecast Ltd (MIME)?   [Dec-10-16 04:46PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of MIME
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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