Intrinsic value of AG Mortgage Investment Trust - MITT

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$19.30

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$19.30

 
Intrinsic value

$5.91

 
Up/down potential

-69%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as MITT.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MITT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -12.77
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  123
  125
  128
  132
  135
  139
  144
  149
  154
  160
  166
  173
  180
  187
  195
  203
  212
  222
  232
  242
  253
  265
  278
  291
  304
  319
  334
  350
  367
  385
  403
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  116
  119
  122
  125
  129
  133
  138
  143
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  225
  235
  246
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  340
  357
  374
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  61
  116
  119
  122
  125
  129
  133
  138
  143
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  225
  235
  246
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  340
  357
  374
Operating income, $m
  62
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
EBITDA, $m
  62
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
Interest expense (income), $m
  32
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  171
  180
  188
  198
  207
Earnings before tax, $m
  62
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -169
  -178
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  64
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -169
  -178

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,629
  2,614
  2,674
  2,743
  2,820
  2,905
  2,999
  3,101
  3,212
  3,331
  3,459
  3,595
  3,741
  3,897
  4,062
  4,237
  4,423
  4,619
  4,827
  5,047
  5,279
  5,523
  5,781
  6,053
  6,340
  6,642
  6,959
  7,294
  7,646
  8,016
  8,406
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,577
  2,614
  2,674
  2,743
  2,820
  2,905
  2,999
  3,101
  3,212
  3,331
  3,459
  3,595
  3,741
  3,897
  4,062
  4,237
  4,423
  4,619
  4,827
  5,047
  5,279
  5,523
  5,781
  6,053
  6,340
  6,642
  6,959
  7,294
  7,646
  8,016
  8,406
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  184
  192
  202
Total debt, $m
  1,922
  1,896
  1,941
  1,992
  2,050
  2,113
  2,183
  2,259
  2,342
  2,430
  2,526
  2,628
  2,736
  2,852
  2,975
  3,106
  3,244
  3,390
  3,545
  3,709
  3,882
  4,064
  4,256
  4,459
  4,672
  4,897
  5,134
  5,383
  5,645
  5,921
  6,211
Total liabilities, $m
  1,973
  1,947
  1,992
  2,043
  2,101
  2,164
  2,234
  2,310
  2,393
  2,481
  2,577
  2,679
  2,787
  2,903
  3,026
  3,157
  3,295
  3,441
  3,596
  3,760
  3,933
  4,115
  4,307
  4,510
  4,723
  4,948
  5,185
  5,434
  5,696
  5,972
  6,262
Total equity, $m
  656
  667
  682
  699
  719
  741
  765
  791
  819
  849
  882
  917
  954
  994
  1,036
  1,080
  1,128
  1,178
  1,231
  1,287
  1,346
  1,408
  1,474
  1,544
  1,617
  1,694
  1,775
  1,860
  1,950
  2,044
  2,143
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,629
  2,614
  2,674
  2,742
  2,820
  2,905
  2,999
  3,101
  3,212
  3,330
  3,459
  3,596
  3,741
  3,897
  4,062
  4,237
  4,423
  4,619
  4,827
  5,047
  5,279
  5,523
  5,781
  6,054
  6,340
  6,642
  6,960
  7,294
  7,646
  8,016
  8,405
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.930
  2.850
  2.850
  2.850
  2.850
  2.850
  2.850
  2.860
  2.860
  2.860
  2.860
  2.870
  2.870
  2.870
  2.870
  2.870
  2.880
  2.880
  2.880
  2.880
  2.880
  2.890
  2.890
  2.890
  2.890
  2.890
  2.890
  2.890
  2.900
  2.900
  2.900
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  64
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -169
  -178
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  67
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -169
  -178
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
Cash from operations, $m
  67
  -58
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  541
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  608
  -58
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -529
  26
  45
  51
  57
  64
  70
  76
  82
  89
  95
  102
  109
  116
  123
  131
  138
  146
  155
  164
  173
  182
  192
  203
  213
  225
  237
  249
  262
  276
  290
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -10
  42
  29
  26
  24
  22
  20
  18
  16
  15
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -534
  68
  74
  77
  81
  86
  90
  94
  98
  104
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  145
  152
  160
  168
  176
  184
  194
  204
  213
  225
  237
  249
  262
  276
  290
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  73
  -31
  -14
  -9
  -4
  0
  4
  8
  12
  16
  19
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  103
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  11
  -11
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
Discount rate, %
 
  11.90
  12.50
  13.12
  13.78
  14.46
  15.19
  15.95
  16.74
  17.58
  18.46
  19.38
  20.35
  21.37
  22.44
  23.56
  24.74
  25.98
  27.28
  28.64
  30.07
  31.57
  33.15
  34.81
  36.55
  38.38
  40.30
  42.31
  44.43
  46.65
  48.98
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  92.8
  88.1
  84.1
  80.7
  77.8
  75.4
  73.3
  71.5
  69.9
  68.6
  67.5
  66.5
  65.7
  65.0
  64.4
  63.9
  63.5
  63.2
  63.0
  62.8
  62.6
  62.5
  62.5
  62.5
  62.5
  62.5
  62.5
  62.5
  62.5
  62.5

AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc., a real estate investment trust, focuses on investing in, acquiring, and managing a portfolio of residential mortgage assets, other real estate-related securities, and financial assets. It invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), for which a U.S. government agency guarantees payments of principal and interest on the securities; and fixed- and floating-rate residential non-agency RMBS that are not issued by a U.S. government agencies or U.S. government-sponsored entities. The company also invests in other real estate-related assets and financial assets, such as fixed- and floating-rate commercial mortgage-backed securities, including investment grade and non-investment grade classes; residential mortgage loans secured by residential real property; and commercial mortgage loans secured by commercial real property, including mezzanine loans and preferred equity. In addition, its other real estate-related assets and financial assets investments include first or second lien loans, subordinate interests in first mortgages, and mezzanine financing secured by interests in commercial real estate, as well as bridge loans to be used in the acquisition, construction, or redevelopment of a property; other real estate structured finance products, mortgage servicing rights, real estate-related loans and securities, and other financial assets; and investment grade and non-investment grade debt and equity tranches of securitizations backed by various asset classes, such as small balance commercial mortgages, aircraft, automobiles, credit cards, equipment, manufactured housing, franchises, recreational vehicles, and student loans. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is based in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AG Mortgage Investment Trust (MITT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 8.4
Price to Sales 4.3
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8
Price to Free Cash Flow 8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -12.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 3.2%
Total Debt to Equity 293%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Total Capital 2.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Equity 9.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 64.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.2%
EBITDA Margin 76.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.1%
Operating Margin 50.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44%
Pre-Tax Margin 50.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44%
Net Profit Margin 52%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 104.7%

MITT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MITT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $123 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AG Mortgage Investment Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of AG Mortgage Investment Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MITT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.9%, whose default value for MITT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AG Mortgage Investment Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AG Mortgage Investment Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MITT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MITT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for AG Mortgage Investment Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AG Mortgage Investment Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MITT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MITT are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AG Mortgage Investment Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MITT is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $656 million for AG Mortgage Investment Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.763 million for AG Mortgage Investment Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AG Mortgage Investment Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.


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Stock chart of MITT Financial statements of MITT
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