Intrinsic value of AG Mortgage Investment Trust - MITT

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  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as MITT.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MITT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -12.77
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  123
  144
  147
  151
  155
  160
  165
  171
  177
  183
  190
  198
  206
  214
  223
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  290
  304
  318
  333
  349
  365
  383
  401
  421
  441
  463
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  37
  38
  38
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  50
  52
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  118
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  61
  37
  38
  38
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  50
  52
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  118
Operating income, $m
  62
  107
  110
  112
  116
  119
  123
  127
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  181
  189
  198
  207
  216
  226
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  299
  313
  329
  345
EBITDA, $m
  62
  107
  110
  112
  116
  119
  123
  127
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  181
  189
  198
  207
  216
  226
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  299
  313
  329
  345
Interest expense (income), $m
  32
  71
  73
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  134
  140
  147
  155
  162
  171
  179
  189
  198
  208
  219
  230
  242
  255
Earnings before tax, $m
  62
  36
  37
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
Tax expense, $m
  0
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
Net income, $m
  64
  27
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,629
  3,196
  3,270
  3,354
  3,448
  3,552
  3,667
  3,792
  3,927
  4,073
  4,229
  4,396
  4,575
  4,765
  4,967
  5,181
  5,408
  5,648
  5,902
  6,171
  6,454
  6,754
  7,069
  7,402
  7,752
  8,121
  8,510
  8,919
  9,349
  9,802
  10,278
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,577
  3,196
  3,270
  3,354
  3,448
  3,552
  3,667
  3,792
  3,927
  4,073
  4,229
  4,396
  4,575
  4,765
  4,967
  5,181
  5,408
  5,648
  5,902
  6,171
  6,454
  6,754
  7,069
  7,402
  7,752
  8,121
  8,510
  8,919
  9,349
  9,802
  10,278
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.048
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  72
  74
  75
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  167
  174
  183
  191
  201
  210
  221
  231
Total debt, $m
  1,922
  2,080
  2,138
  2,204
  2,278
  2,360
  2,450
  2,548
  2,655
  2,769
  2,892
  3,024
  3,164
  3,313
  3,472
  3,640
  3,819
  4,008
  4,207
  4,418
  4,641
  4,876
  5,124
  5,386
  5,661
  5,951
  6,257
  6,578
  6,916
  7,272
  7,647
Total liabilities, $m
  1,973
  2,512
  2,570
  2,636
  2,710
  2,792
  2,882
  2,980
  3,087
  3,201
  3,324
  3,456
  3,596
  3,745
  3,904
  4,072
  4,251
  4,440
  4,639
  4,850
  5,073
  5,308
  5,556
  5,818
  6,093
  6,383
  6,689
  7,010
  7,348
  7,704
  8,079
Total equity, $m
  656
  684
  700
  718
  738
  760
  785
  811
  840
  872
  905
  941
  979
  1,020
  1,063
  1,109
  1,157
  1,209
  1,263
  1,321
  1,381
  1,445
  1,513
  1,584
  1,659
  1,738
  1,821
  1,909
  2,001
  2,098
  2,200
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,629
  3,196
  3,270
  3,354
  3,448
  3,552
  3,667
  3,791
  3,927
  4,073
  4,229
  4,397
  4,575
  4,765
  4,967
  5,181
  5,408
  5,649
  5,902
  6,171
  6,454
  6,753
  7,069
  7,402
  7,752
  8,121
  8,510
  8,919
  9,349
  9,802
  10,279
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.930
  3.040
  3.060
  3.070
  3.090
  3.100
  3.120
  3.140
  3.160
  3.180
  3.200
  3.210
  3.230
  3.250
  3.270
  3.280
  3.300
  3.320
  3.330
  3.350
  3.360
  3.370
  3.390
  3.400
  3.410
  3.420
  3.440
  3.450
  3.460
  3.470
  3.480
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.255
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  64
  27
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  67
  27
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Cash from operations, $m
  67
  25
  25
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  541
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  608
  25
  25
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -529
  61
  58
  66
  74
  82
  90
  98
  106
  114
  123
  131
  140
  149
  159
  168
  178
  189
  200
  211
  223
  235
  248
  261
  275
  290
  305
  321
  338
  356
  374
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -534
  61
  58
  66
  74
  82
  90
  98
  106
  114
  123
  131
  140
  149
  159
  168
  178
  189
  200
  211
  223
  235
  248
  261
  275
  290
  305
  321
  338
  356
  374
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  73
  86
  83
  92
  100
  109
  117
  126
  134
  143
  152
  161
  171
  181
  191
  202
  213
  224
  236
  249
  262
  275
  289
  304
  320
  336
  353
  371
  389
  409
  429
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  11
  -17
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  69
  67
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
  191
  201
  211
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
  283
  297
  312
  327
Discount rate, %
 
  12.00
  12.60
  13.23
  13.89
  14.59
  15.32
  16.08
  16.89
  17.73
  18.62
  19.55
  20.52
  21.55
  22.63
  23.76
  24.95
  26.19
  27.50
  28.88
  30.32
  31.84
  33.43
  35.10
  36.86
  38.70
  40.64
  42.67
  44.80
  47.04
  49.39
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  62
  53
  51
  47
  44
  39
  35
  30
  26
  22
  18
  14
  11
  9
  6
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc., a real estate investment trust, focuses on investing in, acquiring, and managing a portfolio of residential mortgage assets, other real estate-related securities, and financial assets. It invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), for which a U.S. government agency guarantees payments of principal and interest on the securities; and fixed- and floating-rate residential non-agency RMBS that are not issued by a U.S. government agencies or U.S. government-sponsored entities. The company also invests in other real estate-related assets and financial assets, such as fixed- and floating-rate commercial mortgage-backed securities, including investment grade and non-investment grade classes; residential mortgage loans secured by residential real property; and commercial mortgage loans secured by commercial real property, including mezzanine loans and preferred equity. In addition, its other real estate-related assets and financial assets investments include first or second lien loans, subordinate interests in first mortgages, and mezzanine financing secured by interests in commercial real estate, as well as bridge loans to be used in the acquisition, construction, or redevelopment of a property; other real estate structured finance products, mortgage servicing rights, real estate-related loans and securities, and other financial assets; and investment grade and non-investment grade debt and equity tranches of securitizations backed by various asset classes, such as small balance commercial mortgages, aircraft, automobiles, credit cards, equipment, manufactured housing, franchises, recreational vehicles, and student loans. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is based in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AG Mortgage Investment Trust (MITT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 8.2
Price to Sales 4.3
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -12.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 3.2%
Total Debt to Equity 293%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Total Capital 2.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Equity 9.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 64.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.2%
EBITDA Margin 76.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.1%
Operating Margin 50.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44%
Pre-Tax Margin 50.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44%
Net Profit Margin 52%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 104.7%

MITT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MITT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $141 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AG Mortgage Investment Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of AG Mortgage Investment Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MITT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12%, whose default value for MITT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AG Mortgage Investment Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AG Mortgage Investment Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MITT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 25.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MITT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for AG Mortgage Investment Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AG Mortgage Investment Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MITT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MITT are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AG Mortgage Investment Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MITT is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $667 million for AG Mortgage Investment Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.669 million for AG Mortgage Investment Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AG Mortgage Investment Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.


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Stock chart of MITT Financial statements of MITT Annual reports of MITT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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