Intrinsic value of Herman Miller - MLHR

Previous Close

$38.35

  Intrinsic Value

$37.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-2%

Previous close

$38.35

 
Intrinsic value

$37.57

 
Up/down potential

-2%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of MLHR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.57
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,278
  2,324
  2,377
  2,438
  2,507
  2,583
  2,666
  2,757
  2,855
  2,961
  3,075
  3,196
  3,326
  3,464
  3,611
  3,767
  3,932
  4,106
  4,291
  4,486
  4,693
  4,910
  5,139
  5,381
  5,636
  5,904
  6,187
  6,484
  6,797
  7,126
  7,472
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,107
  2,154
  2,208
  2,269
  2,337
  2,411
  2,491
  2,579
  2,673
  2,774
  2,839
  2,954
  3,077
  3,207
  3,346
  3,492
  3,647
  3,811
  3,985
  4,168
  4,361
  4,565
  4,780
  5,006
  5,244
  5,495
  5,759
  6,037
  6,330
  6,637
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,087
  2,107
  2,154
  2,208
  2,269
  2,337
  2,411
  2,491
  2,579
  2,673
  2,774
  2,839
  2,954
  3,077
  3,207
  3,346
  3,492
  3,647
  3,811
  3,985
  4,168
  4,361
  4,565
  4,780
  5,006
  5,244
  5,495
  5,759
  6,037
  6,330
  6,637
Operating income, $m
  191
  217
  223
  230
  237
  246
  255
  265
  276
  288
  301
  357
  372
  387
  404
  421
  440
  459
  480
  502
  525
  549
  575
  602
  630
  660
  692
  725
  760
  797
  835
EBITDA, $m
  250
  334
  342
  351
  361
  372
  384
  397
  411
  426
  442
  460
  479
  498
  520
  542
  566
  591
  617
  646
  675
  707
  740
  774
  811
  850
  890
  933
  978
  1,025
  1,075
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
Earnings before tax, $m
  178
  203
  207
  213
  219
  226
  234
  242
  251
  261
  271
  325
  337
  349
  362
  376
  391
  407
  424
  441
  460
  480
  500
  522
  545
  569
  595
  622
  650
  680
  711
Tax expense, $m
  55
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  88
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  130
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  192
Net income, $m
  124
  148
  151
  156
  160
  165
  171
  177
  183
  190
  198
  237
  246
  255
  264
  275
  286
  297
  309
  322
  336
  350
  365
  381
  398
  416
  434
  454
  474
  496
  519

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  105
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,306
  1,332
  1,363
  1,398
  1,437
  1,481
  1,529
  1,581
  1,637
  1,698
  1,763
  1,833
  1,907
  1,986
  2,070
  2,160
  2,254
  2,355
  2,461
  2,572
  2,691
  2,815
  2,947
  3,086
  3,232
  3,385
  3,547
  3,718
  3,897
  4,086
  4,285
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,201
  1,332
  1,363
  1,398
  1,437
  1,481
  1,529
  1,581
  1,637
  1,698
  1,763
  1,833
  1,907
  1,986
  2,070
  2,160
  2,254
  2,355
  2,461
  2,572
  2,691
  2,815
  2,947
  3,086
  3,232
  3,385
  3,547
  3,718
  3,897
  4,086
  4,285
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.897
  1.745
  1.744
  1.744
  1.745
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
  1.744
Average production assets, $m
  428
  746
  763
  783
  805
  829
  856
  885
  916
  950
  987
  1,026
  1,068
  1,112
  1,159
  1,209
  1,262
  1,318
  1,377
  1,440
  1,506
  1,576
  1,650
  1,727
  1,809
  1,895
  1,986
  2,081
  2,182
  2,288
  2,399
Working capital, $m
  106
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
Total debt, $m
  200
  214
  231
  250
  272
  296
  322
  351
  382
  415
  451
  490
  530
  574
  620
  669
  722
  777
  835
  896
  961
  1,030
  1,102
  1,179
  1,259
  1,344
  1,433
  1,526
  1,625
  1,729
  1,838
Total liabilities, $m
  719
  733
  750
  769
  791
  814
  841
  869
  900
  934
  970
  1,008
  1,049
  1,092
  1,139
  1,188
  1,240
  1,295
  1,353
  1,415
  1,480
  1,548
  1,621
  1,697
  1,777
  1,862
  1,951
  2,045
  2,144
  2,247
  2,357
Total equity, $m
  588
  600
  613
  629
  647
  666
  688
  711
  737
  764
  793
  825
  858
  894
  932
  972
  1,014
  1,060
  1,107
  1,158
  1,211
  1,267
  1,326
  1,389
  1,454
  1,523
  1,596
  1,673
  1,754
  1,839
  1,928
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,307
  1,333
  1,363
  1,398
  1,438
  1,480
  1,529
  1,580
  1,637
  1,698
  1,763
  1,833
  1,907
  1,986
  2,071
  2,160
  2,254
  2,355
  2,460
  2,573
  2,691
  2,815
  2,947
  3,086
  3,231
  3,385
  3,547
  3,718
  3,898
  4,086
  4,285
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.340
  0.360
  0.380
  0.400
  0.420
  0.440
  0.470
  0.490
  0.520
  0.540
  0.570
  0.590
  0.620
  0.640
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.730
  0.750
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.830
  0.850
  0.870
  0.880
  0.900
  0.910
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.402
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  124
  148
  151
  156
  160
  165
  171
  177
  183
  190
  198
  237
  246
  255
  264
  275
  286
  297
  309
  322
  336
  350
  365
  381
  398
  416
  434
  454
  474
  496
  519
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  59
  117
  119
  121
  123
  126
  128
  131
  134
  138
  141
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  229
  240
Funds from operations, $m
  185
  265
  271
  277
  283
  291
  299
  308
  318
  328
  339
  340
  352
  366
  380
  396
  412
  429
  447
  466
  486
  508
  530
  554
  579
  605
  633
  662
  693
  725
  759
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  202
  265
  270
  277
  283
  291
  299
  308
  318
  328
  339
  339
  352
  366
  380
  395
  412
  429
  447
  466
  486
  507
  530
  553
  578
  605
  632
  661
  692
  724
  758
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -73
  -75
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -218
  -229
New CAPEX, $m
  -87
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -116
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -210
  -221
  -232
  -243
  -255
  -267
  -281
  -294
  -308
  -324
  -340
Free cash flow, $m
  86
  178
  179
  181
  183
  186
  189
  193
  198
  202
  208
  202
  208
  215
  222
  229
  238
  246
  256
  265
  276
  287
  299
  311
  324
  338
  352
  367
  383
  400
  418
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -22
  14
  17
  19
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -36
  14
  17
  19
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  50
  193
  196
  200
  205
  210
  216
  222
  229
  236
  243
  240
  249
  258
  268
  279
  290
  301
  314
  327
  341
  355
  371
  387
  404
  422
  441
  461
  482
  504
  527
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -64
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  181
  182
  184
  187
  190
  194
  198
  203
  208
  214
  209
  215
  223
  230
  238
  247
  256
  266
  277
  288
  299
  312
  325
  338
  353
  368
  384
  401
  419
  438
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  174
  166
  160
  154
  147
  141
  134
  127
  120
  112
  99
  92
  85
  77
  70
  63
  56
  49
  43
  37
  31
  26
  21
  17
  14
  11
  8
  6
  5
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Herman Miller, Inc. is engaged in the research, design, manufacture, sale and distribution of office furniture systems, seating products, home furnishings and related services, among others. The Company's segments include North American Furniture Solutions, which includes the design, manufacture and sale of furniture products for work-related settings, including office, education and healthcare environments, across the United States and Canada; EMEA, Latin America, and Asia Pacific (ELA) Furniture Solutions, which includes the operations associated with the design, manufacture, and sale of furniture products, primarily for work-related settings, in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), Latin America and Asia-Pacific geographic regions, among others; Specialty segment, which includes the design, manufacture and sale of furniture products and textiles, and Consumer segment, which includes the sale of modern design furnishings and accessories to third-party retail distributors.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Herman Miller (MLHR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.5
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 3.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 2.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 16.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 34%
Total Debt to Equity 34%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Return On Total Capital 16.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Return On Equity 22.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.4%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.8%
EBITDA Margin 11%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Operating Margin 8.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Net Profit Margin 5.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Effective Tax Rate 30.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
Payout Ratio 31.5%

MLHR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MLHR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2278 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Herman Miller. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Herman Miller. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MLHR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MLHR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Herman Miller, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Herman Miller.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MLHR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MLHR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.2% for Herman Miller.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Herman Miller. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MLHR stock is equal to 0.4%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MLHR are equal to 32.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Herman Miller operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MLHR is equal to 0.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $588 million for Herman Miller - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 60 million for Herman Miller is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Herman Miller at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Herman Miller's Management Shares Key Insights   [Jul-05-18 03:03PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Company News For Jul 5, 2018   [09:40AM  Zacks]
▶ Herman Miller Stock Soars on Q4 Earnings Beat   [Jul-03-18 05:25PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [02:02PM  Motley Fool]
▶ After-hours buzz: MLHR, ACXM & more   [Jul-02-18 05:13PM  CNBC]
▶ Herman Miller: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ Herman Miller Q4 Earnings Preview   [07:44AM  Benzinga]
▶ Herman Miller Acquires an Interest in HAY   [Jun-07-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ April Top Services Dividend Payers   [Apr-27-18 03:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ 3 Things Herman Miller's Management Wants You to Know   [Apr-05-18 03:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Herman Miller posts 3Q profit   [04:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ FED MEETING What you need to know in markets on Wednesday   [Mar-20-18 06:25PM  Yahoo Finance]
▶ Herman Miller Announces CEO Succession Plan   [Feb-05-18 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 5 Best Stocks Worth Buying on Upgraded Broker Ratings   [Jan-08-18 03:00PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Herman Miller posts 2Q profit   [Dec-20-17 04:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ Herman Miller Earnings Preview   [07:17AM  Benzinga]
▶ Herman Miller posts 1Q profit   [Sep-20-17 09:16PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of MLHR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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