Intrinsic value of Mueller Industries - MLI

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$28.78

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$28.78

 
Intrinsic value

$24.94

 
Up/down potential

-13%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MLI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -2.10
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,056
  2,097
  2,145
  2,200
  2,262
  2,331
  2,406
  2,488
  2,577
  2,672
  2,775
  2,885
  3,002
  3,126
  3,259
  3,400
  3,549
  3,706
  3,873
  4,049
  4,235
  4,432
  4,639
  4,857
  5,087
  5,329
  5,584
  5,852
  6,135
  6,432
  6,744
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,961
  2,005
  2,057
  2,114
  2,178
  2,248
  2,324
  2,406
  2,495
  2,590
  2,680
  2,789
  2,904
  3,027
  3,158
  3,296
  3,443
  3,598
  3,762
  3,934
  4,117
  4,309
  4,512
  4,725
  4,950
  5,187
  5,437
  5,699
  5,975
  6,265
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,903
  1,961
  2,005
  2,057
  2,114
  2,178
  2,248
  2,324
  2,406
  2,495
  2,590
  2,680
  2,789
  2,904
  3,027
  3,158
  3,296
  3,443
  3,598
  3,762
  3,934
  4,117
  4,309
  4,512
  4,725
  4,950
  5,187
  5,437
  5,699
  5,975
  6,265
Operating income, $m
  153
  137
  140
  144
  148
  153
  159
  164
  171
  177
  185
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  252
  263
  275
  288
  301
  315
  329
  345
  361
  379
  397
  416
  436
  457
  479
EBITDA, $m
  188
  175
  179
  184
  189
  195
  201
  208
  215
  223
  232
  241
  251
  261
  272
  284
  296
  309
  323
  338
  353
  370
  387
  405
  425
  445
  466
  488
  512
  537
  563
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  45
  47
Earnings before tax, $m
  146
  129
  132
  136
  140
  144
  149
  154
  159
  165
  172
  191
  198
  206
  214
  223
  232
  242
  253
  264
  275
  288
  300
  314
  328
  344
  359
  376
  394
  412
  432
Tax expense, $m
  48
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  46
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  117
Net income, $m
  100
  94
  96
  99
  102
  105
  108
  112
  116
  121
  125
  139
  145
  150
  156
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
  201
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
  262
  275
  287
  301
  315

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  351
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,447
  1,118
  1,144
  1,173
  1,206
  1,243
  1,283
  1,326
  1,374
  1,425
  1,479
  1,538
  1,600
  1,667
  1,737
  1,812
  1,892
  1,976
  2,064
  2,158
  2,258
  2,362
  2,473
  2,589
  2,711
  2,841
  2,976
  3,120
  3,270
  3,428
  3,595
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,096
  1,118
  1,144
  1,173
  1,206
  1,243
  1,283
  1,326
  1,374
  1,425
  1,479
  1,538
  1,600
  1,667
  1,737
  1,812
  1,892
  1,976
  2,064
  2,158
  2,258
  2,362
  2,473
  2,589
  2,711
  2,841
  2,976
  3,120
  3,270
  3,428
  3,595
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.876
  1.876
  1.875
  1.876
  1.876
  1.875
  1.875
  1.876
  1.876
  1.875
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.875
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
Average production assets, $m
  327
  333
  341
  350
  360
  371
  383
  396
  410
  425
  441
  459
  477
  497
  518
  541
  564
  589
  616
  644
  673
  705
  738
  772
  809
  847
  888
  931
  975
  1,023
  1,072
Working capital, $m
  675
  344
  352
  361
  371
  382
  395
  408
  423
  438
  455
  473
  492
  513
  534
  558
  582
  608
  635
  664
  695
  727
  761
  797
  834
  874
  916
  960
  1,006
  1,055
  1,106
Total debt, $m
  227
  223
  236
  250
  266
  284
  304
  325
  348
  373
  399
  428
  458
  491
  525
  562
  600
  641
  684
  730
  778
  829
  883
  940
  999
  1,062
  1,129
  1,198
  1,272
  1,349
  1,430
Total liabilities, $m
  549
  544
  557
  571
  587
  605
  625
  646
  669
  694
  720
  749
  779
  812
  846
  883
  921
  962
  1,005
  1,051
  1,099
  1,150
  1,204
  1,261
  1,320
  1,383
  1,450
  1,519
  1,593
  1,670
  1,751
Total equity, $m
  899
  573
  587
  602
  619
  637
  658
  680
  705
  731
  759
  789
  821
  855
  891
  930
  970
  1,013
  1,059
  1,107
  1,158
  1,212
  1,268
  1,328
  1,391
  1,457
  1,527
  1,600
  1,678
  1,759
  1,844
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,448
  1,117
  1,144
  1,173
  1,206
  1,242
  1,283
  1,326
  1,374
  1,425
  1,479
  1,538
  1,600
  1,667
  1,737
  1,813
  1,891
  1,975
  2,064
  2,158
  2,257
  2,362
  2,472
  2,589
  2,711
  2,840
  2,977
  3,119
  3,271
  3,429
  3,595
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.253
  0.390
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.480
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.620
  0.630
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.500
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  100
  94
  96
  99
  102
  105
  108
  112
  116
  121
  125
  139
  145
  150
  156
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
  201
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
  262
  275
  287
  301
  315
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  35
  38
  39
  40
  41
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
Funds from operations, $m
  163
  133
  136
  139
  142
  146
  151
  156
  161
  166
  172
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
  243
  254
  265
  277
  290
  303
  317
  332
  347
  364
  381
  399
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
Cash from operations, $m
  158
  131
  128
  130
  132
  135
  138
  142
  146
  151
  155
  157
  163
  169
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
  243
  254
  265
  277
  290
  303
  317
  332
  348
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
New CAPEX, $m
  -38
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -53
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -130
Free cash flow, $m
  105
  99
  94
  94
  95
  96
  97
  99
  101
  103
  106
  105
  108
  112
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  176
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  5
  10
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -2
  10
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  97
  109
  106
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  124
  128
  132
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  299
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -72
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  337
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  435
  93
  94
  94
  95
  96
  98
  100
  102
  104
  104
  107
  110
  113
  117
  121
  126
  130
  135
  141
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  417
  85
  81
  78
  74
  70
  66
  62
  59
  55
  49
  46
  42
  38
  34
  31
  27
  24
  21
  18
  15
  13
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Mueller Industries, Inc. manufactures and sells copper, brass, aluminum, and plastic products in the United States, Canada, Mexico, the Great Britain, and China. Its Plumbing & Refrigeration segment offers copper tubes and coils; and copper and plastic fittings, line sets, valves, and related components for use in water distribution systems, heating systems, air-conditioning, and refrigeration applications, as well as for drainage, waste, and vent systems. It also fabricates steel pipe nipples; and resells imported brass and plastic plumbing valves, malleable iron fittings, faucets, and plumbing specialty products to plumbing wholesalers and building materials retailers, as well as to distributors of manufactured housing and recreational vehicle industries. This segment markets its products through its sales offices and distribution centers, and agents. The company’s Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM) segment manufactures and sells brass, bronze, and copper alloy rods for applications that require a high degree of machinability, wear and corrosion resistance, and electrical conductivity; brass and aluminum forgings for use in automotive components, brass fittings, industrial machinery, valve bodies, gear blanks, and computer hardware; and cold-formed aluminum and copper impact extrusions for use in automotive, military ordnance, aerospace, and general manufacturing industries. It also manufactures and fabricates valves and custom OEM products for refrigeration and air-conditioning, gas appliance, and barbecue grill applications; engineered copper tubes for air-conditioning applications; and high-pressure components and accessories for the air-conditioning and refrigeration markets, as well as coaxial heat exchangers and twisted tubes, and fluid control solutions. This segment sells its products directly to OEM customers, as well as to other manufacturers and distributors. The company was founded in 1900 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Mueller Industries (MLI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.5
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 31%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 25
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 23.7%
Total Debt to Equity 25.3%
Interest Coverage 22
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Return On Total Capital 9.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Return On Equity 11.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 16.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
EBITDA Margin 9.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Operating Margin 7.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Net Profit Margin 4.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Effective Tax Rate 32.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.2%
Payout Ratio 21%

MLI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MLI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2056 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Mueller Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Mueller Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MLI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MLI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Mueller Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Mueller Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MLI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MLI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Mueller Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Mueller Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MLI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MLI are equal to 15.9%.

Life of production assets of 12.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Mueller Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MLI is equal to 16.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $899 million for Mueller Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 58.136 million for Mueller Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Mueller Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Fortune 1000 company set to relocate HQ from Memphis   [Apr-26-17 06:55PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Mueller Industries posts 1Q profit   [Apr-25-17 09:04AM  Associated Press]
▶ Mueller Industries posts 4Q profit   [08:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ Mueller Industries, Inc. Announces New Capital Investment   [Dec-02-16 07:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Selling Office Depot Inc (ODP)   [Nov-29-16 04:05AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Mueller Industries raises dividend 33%   [07:07AM  at MarketWatch]
▶ Mueller Industries raises dividend 33%   [07:07AM  at MarketWatch]
▶ CEO forecasts 2016 copper prices, affect on Mueller   [11:30AM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of MLI Financial statements of MLI Annual reports of MLI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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