Intrinsic value of Mueller Industries - MLI

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$29.74

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MLI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -2.10
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,056
  2,142
  2,191
  2,248
  2,311
  2,381
  2,458
  2,541
  2,632
  2,730
  2,834
  2,946
  3,066
  3,193
  3,329
  3,472
  3,624
  3,786
  3,956
  4,136
  4,326
  4,526
  4,738
  4,961
  5,196
  5,443
  5,703
  5,977
  6,266
  6,569
  6,889
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,003
  2,048
  2,101
  2,159
  2,225
  2,296
  2,374
  2,458
  2,549
  2,646
  2,738
  2,849
  2,968
  3,093
  3,227
  3,368
  3,518
  3,676
  3,843
  4,020
  4,206
  4,403
  4,610
  4,828
  5,058
  5,300
  5,555
  5,823
  6,105
  6,401
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,903
  2,003
  2,048
  2,101
  2,159
  2,225
  2,296
  2,374
  2,458
  2,549
  2,646
  2,738
  2,849
  2,968
  3,093
  3,227
  3,368
  3,518
  3,676
  3,843
  4,020
  4,206
  4,403
  4,610
  4,828
  5,058
  5,300
  5,555
  5,823
  6,105
  6,401
Operating income, $m
  153
  139
  143
  147
  151
  156
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  208
  217
  226
  235
  246
  256
  268
  280
  292
  306
  320
  335
  351
  367
  385
  403
  423
  443
  465
  487
EBITDA, $m
  188
  177
  181
  186
  191
  197
  204
  210
  218
  226
  235
  244
  254
  264
  276
  288
  300
  313
  328
  342
  358
  375
  392
  411
  430
  451
  472
  495
  519
  544
  570
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
Earnings before tax, $m
  146
  132
  135
  139
  143
  147
  152
  158
  163
  169
  176
  195
  203
  211
  219
  228
  238
  248
  259
  270
  282
  294
  308
  322
  336
  352
  368
  386
  404
  423
  443
Tax expense, $m
  48
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
Net income, $m
  100
  97
  99
  101
  104
  108
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  225
  235
  246
  257
  269
  281
  295
  309
  323

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  351
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,447
  1,085
  1,110
  1,139
  1,171
  1,206
  1,245
  1,287
  1,333
  1,383
  1,436
  1,493
  1,553
  1,618
  1,686
  1,759
  1,836
  1,918
  2,004
  2,095
  2,191
  2,293
  2,400
  2,513
  2,632
  2,757
  2,889
  3,028
  3,174
  3,328
  3,490
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,096
  1,085
  1,110
  1,139
  1,171
  1,206
  1,245
  1,287
  1,333
  1,383
  1,436
  1,493
  1,553
  1,618
  1,686
  1,759
  1,836
  1,918
  2,004
  2,095
  2,191
  2,293
  2,400
  2,513
  2,632
  2,757
  2,889
  3,028
  3,174
  3,328
  3,490
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.876
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.973
  1.974
  1.973
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
Average production assets, $m
  327
  298
  305
  312
  321
  331
  342
  353
  366
  379
  394
  410
  426
  444
  463
  483
  504
  526
  550
  575
  601
  629
  659
  690
  722
  757
  793
  831
  871
  913
  958
Working capital, $m
  675
  334
  342
  351
  360
  371
  383
  396
  411
  426
  442
  460
  478
  498
  519
  542
  565
  591
  617
  645
  675
  706
  739
  774
  811
  849
  890
  932
  977
  1,025
  1,075
Total debt, $m
  227
  214
  226
  239
  254
  271
  289
  309
  331
  354
  379
  406
  434
  464
  497
  531
  567
  605
  646
  689
  734
  782
  832
  885
  941
  1,000
  1,062
  1,127
  1,196
  1,268
  1,344
Total liabilities, $m
  549
  510
  522
  535
  550
  567
  585
  605
  627
  650
  675
  702
  730
  760
  793
  827
  863
  901
  942
  985
  1,030
  1,078
  1,128
  1,181
  1,237
  1,296
  1,358
  1,423
  1,492
  1,564
  1,640
Total equity, $m
  899
  575
  588
  603
  620
  639
  660
  682
  707
  733
  761
  791
  823
  857
  894
  932
  973
  1,016
  1,062
  1,110
  1,161
  1,215
  1,272
  1,332
  1,395
  1,461
  1,531
  1,605
  1,682
  1,764
  1,850
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,448
  1,085
  1,110
  1,138
  1,170
  1,206
  1,245
  1,287
  1,334
  1,383
  1,436
  1,493
  1,553
  1,617
  1,687
  1,759
  1,836
  1,917
  2,004
  2,095
  2,191
  2,293
  2,400
  2,513
  2,632
  2,757
  2,889
  3,028
  3,174
  3,328
  3,490
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.253
  0.370
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.440
  0.450
  0.470
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.530
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.500
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  100
  97
  99
  101
  104
  108
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  225
  235
  246
  257
  269
  281
  295
  309
  323
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  35
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
Funds from operations, $m
  163
  134
  137
  141
  144
  148
  153
  158
  163
  169
  175
  178
  185
  192
  200
  209
  217
  227
  237
  247
  258
  270
  282
  295
  308
  323
  338
  354
  370
  388
  406
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
Cash from operations, $m
  158
  156
  130
  132
  134
  137
  141
  145
  149
  153
  158
  161
  166
  172
  179
  186
  194
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  284
  297
  311
  325
  341
  357
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
New CAPEX, $m
  -38
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -53
  -30
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
Free cash flow, $m
  105
  126
  97
  98
  99
  100
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
  111
  114
  118
  122
  126
  130
  135
  141
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  5
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -2
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  97
  136
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  127
  131
  136
  137
  143
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  225
  235
  246
  257
  269
  282
  295
  309
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -72
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -86
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  263
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  388
  95
  96
  97
  98
  99
  101
  103
  105
  108
  107
  110
  114
  118
  122
  126
  130
  135
  141
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  196
  204
  213
  223
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  372
  87
  83
  80
  76
  72
  68
  64
  60
  56
  51
  47
  43
  39
  36
  32
  28
  25
  22
  19
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Mueller Industries, Inc. manufactures and sells copper, brass, aluminum, and plastic products in the United States, Canada, Mexico, the Great Britain, and China. Its Plumbing & Refrigeration segment offers copper tubes and coils; and copper and plastic fittings, line sets, valves, and related components for use in water distribution systems, heating systems, air-conditioning, and refrigeration applications, as well as for drainage, waste, and vent systems. It also fabricates steel pipe nipples; and resells imported brass and plastic plumbing valves, malleable iron fittings, faucets, and plumbing specialty products to plumbing wholesalers and building materials retailers, as well as to distributors of manufactured housing and recreational vehicle industries. This segment markets its products through its sales offices and distribution centers, and agents. The company’s Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM) segment manufactures and sells brass, bronze, and copper alloy rods for applications that require a high degree of machinability, wear and corrosion resistance, and electrical conductivity; brass and aluminum forgings for use in automotive components, brass fittings, industrial machinery, valve bodies, gear blanks, and computer hardware; and cold-formed aluminum and copper impact extrusions for use in automotive, military ordnance, aerospace, and general manufacturing industries. It also manufactures and fabricates valves and custom OEM products for refrigeration and air-conditioning, gas appliance, and barbecue grill applications; engineered copper tubes for air-conditioning applications; and high-pressure components and accessories for the air-conditioning and refrigeration markets, as well as coaxial heat exchangers and twisted tubes, and fluid control solutions. This segment sells its products directly to OEM customers, as well as to other manufacturers and distributors. The company was founded in 1900 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Mueller Industries (MLI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.1
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 31%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 25
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 23.7%
Total Debt to Equity 25.3%
Interest Coverage 22
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Return On Total Capital 9.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Return On Equity 11.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 16.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
EBITDA Margin 9.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Operating Margin 7.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Net Profit Margin 4.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Effective Tax Rate 32.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.2%
Payout Ratio 21%

MLI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MLI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2100 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Mueller Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Mueller Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MLI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MLI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Mueller Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Mueller Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MLI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MLI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Mueller Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Mueller Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MLI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MLI are equal to 13.9%.

Life of production assets of 11.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Mueller Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MLI is equal to 15.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $827 million for Mueller Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 55.954 million for Mueller Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Mueller Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Memphis public company makes acquisitions in Canada   [Jun-06-17 01:25PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Here Are Mario Gabellis Top Infrastructure Bets   [May-26-17 07:37AM  Market Realist]
▶ Fortune 1000 company set to relocate HQ from Memphis   [Apr-26-17 06:55PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Mueller Industries posts 1Q profit   [Apr-25-17 09:04AM  Associated Press]
▶ Mueller Industries posts 4Q profit   [08:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ Mueller Industries, Inc. Announces New Capital Investment   [Dec-02-16 07:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Selling Office Depot Inc (ODP)   [Nov-29-16 04:05AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Mueller Industries raises dividend 33%   [07:07AM  at MarketWatch]
▶ Mueller Industries raises dividend 33%   [07:07AM  at MarketWatch]
▶ CEO forecasts 2016 copper prices, affect on Mueller   [11:30AM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of MLI Financial statements of MLI Annual reports of MLI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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