Intrinsic value of Mueller Industries - MLI

Previous Close

$34.13

  Intrinsic Value

$26.89

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-21%

  Value-price divergence*

+15%

Previous close

$34.13

 
Intrinsic value

$26.89

 
Up/down potential

-21%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+15%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MLI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -2.10
  12.90
  12.11
  11.40
  10.76
  10.18
  9.66
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
Revenue, $m
  2,056
  2,321
  2,602
  2,899
  3,211
  3,538
  3,880
  4,237
  4,609
  4,996
  5,398
  5,817
  6,252
  6,704
  7,174
  7,662
  8,170
  8,698
  9,248
  9,820
  10,416
  11,036
  11,684
  12,359
  13,063
  13,799
  14,567
  15,369
  16,209
  17,086
  18,004
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,169
  2,430
  2,705
  2,995
  3,299
  3,617
  3,948
  4,294
  4,653
  5,027
  5,404
  5,808
  6,228
  6,664
  7,118
  7,590
  8,080
  8,591
  9,122
  9,676
  10,252
  10,854
  11,481
  12,135
  12,818
  13,532
  14,278
  15,057
  15,872
  16,725
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,903
  2,169
  2,430
  2,705
  2,995
  3,299
  3,617
  3,948
  4,294
  4,653
  5,027
  5,404
  5,808
  6,228
  6,664
  7,118
  7,590
  8,080
  8,591
  9,122
  9,676
  10,252
  10,854
  11,481
  12,135
  12,818
  13,532
  14,278
  15,057
  15,872
  16,725
Operating income, $m
  153
  152
  172
  194
  216
  239
  263
  289
  315
  342
  371
  413
  444
  476
  510
  544
  580
  618
  657
  698
  740
  784
  830
  878
  928
  980
  1,035
  1,092
  1,151
  1,214
  1,279
EBITDA, $m
  188
  194
  217
  242
  268
  295
  324
  354
  385
  417
  451
  485
  522
  559
  599
  639
  682
  726
  772
  819
  869
  921
  975
  1,031
  1,090
  1,152
  1,216
  1,283
  1,353
  1,426
  1,502
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  7
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
Earnings before tax, $m
  146
  145
  163
  181
  201
  221
  242
  265
  288
  312
  337
  375
  402
  431
  460
  490
  522
  555
  589
  625
  662
  701
  741
  783
  827
  873
  921
  971
  1,023
  1,078
  1,135
Tax expense, $m
  48
  39
  44
  49
  54
  60
  65
  71
  78
  84
  91
  101
  109
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
  169
  179
  189
  200
  211
  223
  236
  249
  262
  276
  291
  306
Net income, $m
  100
  106
  119
  132
  146
  161
  177
  193
  210
  228
  246
  274
  294
  314
  336
  358
  381
  405
  430
  456
  483
  511
  541
  572
  604
  637
  672
  709
  747
  787
  828

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  351
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,447
  1,237
  1,387
  1,545
  1,712
  1,886
  2,068
  2,258
  2,457
  2,663
  2,878
  3,101
  3,333
  3,574
  3,824
  4,084
  4,355
  4,637
  4,929
  5,234
  5,552
  5,883
  6,228
  6,588
  6,963
  7,355
  7,765
  8,193
  8,640
  9,108
  9,597
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,096
  1,237
  1,387
  1,545
  1,712
  1,886
  2,068
  2,258
  2,457
  2,663
  2,878
  3,101
  3,333
  3,574
  3,824
  4,084
  4,355
  4,637
  4,929
  5,234
  5,552
  5,883
  6,228
  6,588
  6,963
  7,355
  7,765
  8,193
  8,640
  9,108
  9,597
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
  1.876
Average production assets, $m
  327
  369
  414
  461
  511
  563
  617
  674
  733
  794
  858
  925
  994
  1,066
  1,141
  1,218
  1,299
  1,383
  1,470
  1,561
  1,656
  1,755
  1,858
  1,965
  2,077
  2,194
  2,316
  2,444
  2,577
  2,717
  2,863
Working capital, $m
  675
  381
  427
  475
  527
  580
  636
  695
  756
  819
  885
  954
  1,025
  1,099
  1,177
  1,257
  1,340
  1,427
  1,517
  1,610
  1,708
  1,810
  1,916
  2,027
  2,142
  2,263
  2,389
  2,521
  2,658
  2,802
  2,953
Total debt, $m
  227
  282
  355
  432
  513
  597
  686
  779
  875
  976
  1,080
  1,189
  1,302
  1,419
  1,541
  1,668
  1,800
  1,937
  2,080
  2,228
  2,383
  2,544
  2,712
  2,887
  3,070
  3,261
  3,460
  3,669
  3,887
  4,114
  4,353
Total liabilities, $m
  549
  603
  676
  753
  834
  918
  1,007
  1,100
  1,196
  1,297
  1,401
  1,510
  1,623
  1,740
  1,862
  1,989
  2,121
  2,258
  2,401
  2,549
  2,704
  2,865
  3,033
  3,208
  3,391
  3,582
  3,781
  3,990
  4,208
  4,435
  4,674
Total equity, $m
  899
  635
  712
  793
  878
  967
  1,061
  1,159
  1,260
  1,366
  1,476
  1,591
  1,710
  1,833
  1,962
  2,095
  2,234
  2,379
  2,529
  2,685
  2,848
  3,018
  3,195
  3,380
  3,572
  3,773
  3,983
  4,203
  4,432
  4,672
  4,923
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,448
  1,238
  1,388
  1,546
  1,712
  1,885
  2,068
  2,259
  2,456
  2,663
  2,877
  3,101
  3,333
  3,573
  3,824
  4,084
  4,355
  4,637
  4,930
  5,234
  5,552
  5,883
  6,228
  6,588
  6,963
  7,355
  7,764
  8,193
  8,640
  9,107
  9,597
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.253
  0.440
  0.500
  0.540
  0.580
  0.620
  0.650
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.730
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.500
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  100
  106
  119
  132
  146
  161
  177
  193
  210
  228
  246
  274
  294
  314
  336
  358
  381
  405
  430
  456
  483
  511
  541
  572
  604
  637
  672
  709
  747
  787
  828
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  35
  41
  45
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  72
  78
  83
  89
  95
  101
  108
  115
  122
  129
  137
  145
  154
  162
  171
  181
  191
  201
  212
  224
Funds from operations, $m
  163
  147
  163
  181
  199
  218
  237
  258
  280
  302
  325
  346
  371
  398
  425
  453
  483
  513
  545
  578
  613
  648
  686
  725
  766
  808
  853
  899
  948
  999
  1,052
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
Cash from operations, $m
  158
  104
  117
  132
  148
  164
  181
  200
  219
  239
  259
  278
  300
  323
  348
  373
  399
  426
  455
  484
  515
  547
  580
  614
  650
  688
  727
  768
  810
  855
  902
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -201
  -212
New CAPEX, $m
  -38
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -140
  -146
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -53
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -105
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -134
  -141
  -150
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -206
  -217
  -228
  -240
  -252
  -266
  -279
  -293
  -309
  -324
  -341
  -358
Free cash flow, $m
  105
  36
  44
  52
  62
  72
  83
  95
  107
  120
  133
  144
  159
  174
  190
  206
  223
  241
  259
  278
  298
  319
  340
  362
  385
  409
  433
  459
  486
  514
  543
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  5
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  148
  155
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  199
  208
  218
  228
  238
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -2
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  148
  155
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  199
  208
  218
  228
  238
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  97
  104
  117
  129
  143
  157
  172
  187
  203
  220
  238
  253
  272
  291
  312
  333
  355
  378
  402
  427
  453
  480
  508
  537
  568
  600
  633
  668
  704
  742
  782
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -72
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -128
  -134
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -210
  -219
  -229
  -240
  -251
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  337
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  368
  40
  48
  58
  68
  78
  90
  102
  114
  128
  138
  153
  168
  183
  199
  216
  234
  252
  270
  290
  310
  331
  353
  375
  398
  423
  448
  474
  502
  531
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  353
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  61
  64
  66
  67
  66
  65
  64
  62
  59
  55
  51
  46
  42
  37
  32
  27
  23
  19
  15
  12
  10
  7
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Mueller Industries, Inc. is a manufacturer of copper, brass, aluminum and plastic products. The Company operates through three segments: Piping Systems, Industrial Metals and Climate. The Company's products include copper tube and fittings; line sets; brass and copper alloy rod, bar, and shapes; aluminum and brass forgings; aluminum impact extrusions; plastic fittings and valves; refrigeration valves and fittings; fabricated tubular products, and steel nipples. The Company also resells imported brass and plastic plumbing valves, malleable iron fittings, faucets, and plumbing specialty products. The Company's operations are located throughout the United States and in Canada, Mexico, Great Britain, South Korea, and China. The Company markets its products to the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC), plumbing, refrigeration, hardware, and other industries.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Mueller Industries (MLI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.6
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 31%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 25
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 23.7%
Total Debt to Equity 25.3%
Interest Coverage 22
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Return On Total Capital 9.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Return On Equity 11.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 16.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
EBITDA Margin 9.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Operating Margin 7.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Net Profit Margin 4.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Effective Tax Rate 32.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.2%
Payout Ratio 21%

MLI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MLI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2056 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Mueller Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Mueller Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MLI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MLI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Mueller Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Mueller Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MLI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MLI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Mueller Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Mueller Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MLI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MLI are equal to 15.9%.

Life of production assets of 12.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Mueller Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MLI is equal to 16.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $899 million for Mueller Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 57.831 million for Mueller Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Mueller Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Final site plan approved for new Fortune 1000 HQ in Collierville   [Aug-23-17 11:33AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Mueller Industries posts 2Q profit   [Jul-25-17 04:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Memphis public company makes acquisitions in Canada   [Jun-06-17 01:25PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Here Are Mario Gabellis Top Infrastructure Bets   [May-26-17 07:37AM  Market Realist]
▶ Fortune 1000 company set to relocate HQ from Memphis   [Apr-26-17 06:55PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Mueller Industries posts 1Q profit   [Apr-25-17 09:04AM  Associated Press]
▶ Mueller Industries posts 4Q profit   [08:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ Mueller Industries, Inc. Announces New Capital Investment   [Dec-02-16 07:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Selling Office Depot Inc (ODP)   [Nov-29-16 04:05AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Mueller Industries raises dividend 33%   [07:07AM  at MarketWatch]
▶ Mueller Industries raises dividend 33%   [07:07AM  at MarketWatch]
Financial statements of MLI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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