Intrinsic value of ModusLink Global Solutions - MLNK

Previous Close

$1.58

  Intrinsic Value

$0.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-75%

  Value-price divergence*

-57%

Previous close

$1.58

 
Intrinsic value

$0.39

 
Up/down potential

-75%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-57%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MLNK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -18.33
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  459
  468
  479
  491
  505
  520
  537
  555
  575
  597
  620
  644
  670
  698
  728
  759
  792
  827
  865
  904
  946
  989
  1,036
  1,084
  1,136
  1,190
  1,247
  1,307
  1,370
  1,436
  1,506
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  377
  386
  396
  407
  419
  433
  448
  464
  481
  499
  519
  540
  563
  586
  612
  639
  667
  697
  729
  762
  797
  835
  874
  915
  959
  1,005
  1,053
  1,104
  1,157
  1,214
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  136
  140
  143
  147
  150
  154
  158
  162
  166
  170
  175
  179
  183
  188
  193
  197
  202
  207
  213
  218
  223
  229
  235
  241
  247
  253
  259
  266
  272
  279
Total operating expenses, $m
  500
  513
  526
  539
  554
  569
  587
  606
  626
  647
  669
  694
  719
  746
  774
  805
  836
  869
  904
  942
  980
  1,020
  1,064
  1,109
  1,156
  1,206
  1,258
  1,312
  1,370
  1,429
  1,493
Operating income, $m
  -41
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -49
  -48
  -47
  -45
  -44
  -42
  -40
  -37
  -35
  -31
  -28
  -24
  -20
  -16
  -11
  -6
  0
  6
  13
EBITDA, $m
  -33
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -48
  -49
  -49
  -49
  -49
  -49
  -48
  -47
  -46
  -45
  -44
  -42
  -40
  -38
  -35
  -32
  -29
  -26
  -22
  -18
  -13
  -8
  -2
  3
  10
  17
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  5
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
Earnings before tax, $m
  -57
  -51
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -61
  -61
  -62
  -62
  -62
  -62
  -62
  -62
  -61
  -61
  -60
  -59
  -58
  -56
  -54
  -52
  -50
  -47
  -45
  -41
  -38
Tax expense, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -61
  -51
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -61
  -61
  -62
  -62
  -62
  -62
  -62
  -62
  -61
  -61
  -60
  -59
  -58
  -56
  -54
  -52
  -50
  -47
  -45
  -41
  -38

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  148
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  348
  282
  288
  296
  304
  313
  323
  334
  346
  359
  373
  387
  403
  420
  438
  457
  477
  498
  520
  544
  569
  595
  623
  652
  683
  716
  750
  786
  824
  864
  906
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  200
  282
  288
  296
  304
  313
  323
  334
  346
  359
  373
  387
  403
  420
  438
  457
  477
  498
  520
  544
  569
  595
  623
  652
  683
  716
  750
  786
  824
  864
  906
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.295
  1.660
  1.663
  1.659
  1.661
  1.661
  1.663
  1.662
  1.662
  1.663
  1.662
  1.664
  1.663
  1.662
  1.662
  1.661
  1.660
  1.661
  1.663
  1.662
  1.663
  1.662
  1.663
  1.663
  1.663
  1.662
  1.663
  1.663
  1.663
  1.662
  1.662
Average production assets, $m
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Working capital, $m
  125
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
Total debt, $m
  57
  49
  54
  61
  69
  77
  86
  96
  107
  118
  130
  144
  158
  173
  189
  206
  224
  243
  263
  285
  307
  331
  356
  382
  410
  439
  470
  502
  537
  573
  610
Total liabilities, $m
  262
  254
  259
  266
  274
  282
  291
  301
  312
  323
  335
  349
  363
  378
  394
  411
  429
  448
  468
  490
  512
  536
  561
  587
  615
  644
  675
  707
  742
  778
  815
Total equity, $m
  86
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  91
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  348
  282
  288
  296
  304
  313
  323
  334
  347
  359
  372
  388
  403
  420
  438
  457
  477
  498
  520
  544
  569
  596
  623
  652
  683
  716
  750
  786
  824
  864
  906
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.663
  1.720
  1.890
  2.060
  2.250
  2.450
  2.660
  2.870
  3.080
  3.290
  3.500
  3.710
  3.920
  4.120
  4.320
  4.510
  4.700
  4.880
  5.060
  5.230
  5.400
  5.560
  5.710
  5.860
  6.000
  6.140
  6.270
  6.390
  6.510
  6.630
  6.740
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.310
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -61
  -51
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -61
  -61
  -62
  -62
  -62
  -62
  -62
  -62
  -61
  -61
  -60
  -59
  -58
  -56
  -54
  -52
  -50
  -47
  -45
  -41
  -38
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
Funds from operations, $m
  2
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -60
  -60
  -60
  -60
  -60
  -60
  -59
  -59
  -58
  -56
  -55
  -53
  -52
  -49
  -47
  -44
  -41
  -38
  -34
Change in working capital, $m
  22
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  -20
  -49
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -57
  -57
  -58
  -58
  -59
  -59
  -59
  -59
  -59
  -58
  -57
  -57
  -55
  -54
  -53
  -51
  -49
  -47
  -44
  -41
  -38
  -35
  -31
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  52
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Free cash flow, $m
  32
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -60
  -61
  -61
  -61
  -61
  -61
  -61
  -60
  -60
  -59
  -58
  -56
  -55
  -53
  -51
  -48
  -46
  -43
  -39
  -36
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -20
  -8
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  64
  52
  54
  55
  57
  58
  59
  60
  61
  62
  63
  63
  64
  64
  64
  64
  64
  64
  63
  62
  61
  60
  59
  57
  56
  53
  51
  48
  45
  42
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -21
  56
  58
  61
  62
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
  74
  76
  77
  79
  80
  81
  82
  83
  84
  84
  84
  85
  85
  85
  85
  85
  84
  83
  82
  81
  80
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  11
  5
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  59
  -64
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -61
  -62
  -63
  -63
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -63
  -62
  -61
  -60
  -59
  -57
  -56
  -53
  -51
  -48
  -45
  -42
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  72
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  13
  -45
  -46
  -46
  -47
  -47
  -48
  -48
  -48
  -48
  -47
  -47
  -46
  -45
  -44
  -43
  -42
  -40
  -38
  -36
  -34
  -31
  -28
  -25
  -21
  -18
  -13
  -9
  -4
  2
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  12
  -41
  -40
  -38
  -36
  -34
  -32
  -30
  -27
  -25
  -22
  -20
  -18
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  18.2
  6.5
  2.3
  0.8
  0.3
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

ModusLink Global Solutions, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides supply chain and logistics services to companies in the consumer electronics, communications, computing, software, storage, and retail industries. It operates through four segments: Americas, Asia, Europe, and e-Business. The company offers material planning and factory supply solutions, including sourcing and delivering inbound materials, kitting and assembly of packaging materials and accessories, and managing logistics and delivery schedules into multiple manufacturing sites or partners; and value-added warehousing and distribution services, such as order management, pick, pack, ship, retail connectivity, demand planning, and integrated transportation management services, as well as solutions for the physical programming of digital content comprising software, firmware, upgrades, or promotional material onto various types of flash media. It also provides aftermarket services consisting of product returns management services for simplifying the returns process for retailers and manufacturers; and product repair and recovery services for clients to enhance the value of returned and excess inventory. In addition, the company offers e-business solutions, including e-commerce, contact center, and financial management solutions, as well as a software platform that enables clients to manage access to digital and multimedia products, content, features, and services. The company was formerly known as CMGI, Inc. and changed its name to ModusLink Global Solutions, Inc. in 2008. ModusLink Global Solutions, Inc. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ModusLink Global Solutions (MLNK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.4
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -4.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -18.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -11.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 66.3%
Total Debt to Equity 66.3%
Interest Coverage -9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -13.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.8%
Return On Total Capital -33.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.3%
Return On Equity -52.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.6%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 5.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
EBITDA Margin -9.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.1%
Operating Margin -8.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -12.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.6%
Net Profit Margin -13.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.2%
Effective Tax Rate -8.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

MLNK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MLNK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $459 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ModusLink Global Solutions. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ModusLink Global Solutions. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MLNK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MLNK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ModusLink Global Solutions, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ModusLink Global Solutions.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MLNK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $133 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MLNK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.9% for ModusLink Global Solutions.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ModusLink Global Solutions. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MLNK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MLNK are equal to 2.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ModusLink Global Solutions operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MLNK is equal to -5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $86 million for ModusLink Global Solutions - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 54.877 million for ModusLink Global Solutions is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ModusLink Global Solutions at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Millennials Repeating Parents' Dumb Behavior   [Jul-11-17 02:58PM  Barrons.com]
▶ ModusLink reports 3Q loss   [Jun-05-17 04:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Value Is Always in the Eye of the Beholder   [Mar-27-17 10:00AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ ModusLink reports 2Q loss   [05:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ ModusLink To Help Tile Expand Global Business Operations   [Sep-06-16 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ModusLink Named a Top 100 3PL Provider by Inbound Logistics   [Aug-23-16 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ModusLink Reduces Cost of Customer Packaging by $350,000   [May-17-16 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Remember CMGI? Its Remnants Might Rate a Buy   [Apr-25-16 01:00PM  at TheStreet]
▶ Should You Buy ModusLink Global Solutions, Inc. (MLNK)?   [Dec-06  05:42PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Harmony Merger Corp (HRMNU): Hedge Fund Sentiment Unchanged   [Nov-24  03:51PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of MLNK Financial statements of MLNK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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