Intrinsic value of Mellanox Technologies - MLNX

Previous Close

$43.25

  Intrinsic Value

$32.16

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-26%

  Value-price divergence*

+16%

Previous close

$43.25

 
Intrinsic value

$32.16

 
Up/down potential

-26%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+16%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MLNX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  30.40
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  858
  875
  895
  918
  944
  973
  1,004
  1,038
  1,075
  1,115
  1,158
  1,204
  1,253
  1,305
  1,360
  1,419
  1,481
  1,547
  1,616
  1,690
  1,767
  1,849
  1,936
  2,027
  2,123
  2,224
  2,330
  2,442
  2,560
  2,684
  2,814
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  774
  791
  810
  832
  856
  882
  910
  941
  974
  1,010
  1,001
  1,041
  1,084
  1,130
  1,179
  1,231
  1,285
  1,343
  1,404
  1,469
  1,537
  1,609
  1,685
  1,764
  1,848
  1,937
  2,030
  2,128
  2,231
  2,339
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  827
  774
  791
  810
  832
  856
  882
  910
  941
  974
  1,010
  1,001
  1,041
  1,084
  1,130
  1,179
  1,231
  1,285
  1,343
  1,404
  1,469
  1,537
  1,609
  1,685
  1,764
  1,848
  1,937
  2,030
  2,128
  2,231
  2,339
Operating income, $m
  31
  101
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  128
  135
  141
  148
  203
  212
  220
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  299
  312
  327
  342
  359
  376
  394
  412
  432
  453
  475
EBITDA, $m
  129
  175
  179
  183
  189
  194
  201
  207
  215
  223
  231
  240
  250
  261
  272
  283
  296
  309
  323
  337
  353
  369
  387
  405
  424
  444
  465
  488
  511
  536
  562
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  48
  50
Earnings before tax, $m
  24
  92
  95
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  134
  188
  195
  202
  211
  219
  228
  238
  248
  259
  271
  283
  296
  309
  323
  338
  354
  370
  388
  406
  425
Tax expense, $m
  5
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
Net income, $m
  19
  67
  69
  72
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  181
  189
  198
  206
  216
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  328
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,474
  1,168
  1,195
  1,226
  1,261
  1,299
  1,341
  1,386
  1,436
  1,489
  1,546
  1,607
  1,673
  1,742
  1,816
  1,894
  1,977
  2,065
  2,158
  2,256
  2,360
  2,469
  2,584
  2,706
  2,834
  2,969
  3,111
  3,261
  3,418
  3,584
  3,758
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,146
  1,168
  1,195
  1,226
  1,261
  1,299
  1,341
  1,386
  1,436
  1,489
  1,546
  1,607
  1,673
  1,742
  1,816
  1,894
  1,977
  2,065
  2,158
  2,256
  2,360
  2,469
  2,584
  2,706
  2,834
  2,969
  3,111
  3,261
  3,418
  3,584
  3,758
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
Average production assets, $m
  265
  270
  276
  283
  291
  300
  309
  320
  331
  343
  357
  371
  386
  402
  419
  437
  456
  476
  498
  520
  544
  570
  596
  624
  654
  685
  718
  752
  789
  827
  867
Working capital, $m
  340
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
Total debt, $m
  242
  228
  239
  252
  266
  282
  299
  318
  338
  360
  384
  409
  436
  465
  496
  528
  563
  599
  637
  678
  721
  766
  814
  864
  917
  973
  1,032
  1,094
  1,159
  1,228
  1,300
Total liabilities, $m
  498
  484
  495
  508
  522
  538
  555
  574
  594
  616
  640
  665
  692
  721
  752
  784
  819
  855
  893
  934
  977
  1,022
  1,070
  1,120
  1,173
  1,229
  1,288
  1,350
  1,415
  1,484
  1,556
Total equity, $m
  976
  685
  700
  718
  739
  761
  786
  812
  841
  873
  906
  942
  980
  1,021
  1,064
  1,110
  1,159
  1,210
  1,265
  1,322
  1,383
  1,447
  1,514
  1,586
  1,661
  1,740
  1,823
  1,911
  2,003
  2,100
  2,202
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,474
  1,169
  1,195
  1,226
  1,261
  1,299
  1,341
  1,386
  1,435
  1,489
  1,546
  1,607
  1,672
  1,742
  1,816
  1,894
  1,978
  2,065
  2,158
  2,256
  2,360
  2,469
  2,584
  2,706
  2,834
  2,969
  3,111
  3,261
  3,418
  3,584
  3,758
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.248
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.565
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  19
  67
  69
  72
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  181
  189
  198
  206
  216
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  98
  74
  75
  75
  76
  77
  78
  79
  80
  81
  83
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
Funds from operations, $m
  210
  141
  144
  147
  151
  155
  159
  164
  169
  174
  180
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
  263
  275
  288
  301
  315
  330
  345
  362
  379
  397
Change in working capital, $m
  14
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  196
  140
  143
  146
  150
  153
  158
  162
  167
  173
  179
  172
  179
  186
  193
  201
  210
  219
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  284
  297
  311
  325
  341
  357
  374
  391
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
New CAPEX, $m
  -51
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -664
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
Free cash flow, $m
  -468
  109
  110
  111
  113
  116
  118
  121
  124
  127
  131
  122
  127
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
  257
  269
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  245
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  262
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -206
  119
  121
  124
  128
  131
  135
  140
  144
  149
  155
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  181
  189
  198
  206
  216
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310
  325
  341
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -109
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  304
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  410
  105
  106
  107
  109
  111
  113
  115
  118
  121
  112
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  176
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
  228
  239
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  393
  96
  92
  88
  84
  80
  76
  72
  68
  64
  53
  49
  45
  41
  38
  34
  30
  26
  23
  20
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Mellanox Technologies, Ltd., a fabless semiconductor company, designs, manufactures, and sells interconnect products and solutions. Its products facilitate data transmission between servers, storage systems, communications infrastructure equipment, and other embedded systems. The company offers InfiniBand solutions, including switch and gateway integrated circuits (ICs), adapter cards, cables, modules, and software, as well as switch, gateway, and long-haul systems; Ethernet solution for use in enterprise data center, high-performance computing, embedded environments, hyperscale Web 2.0, and cloud data centers; and Ethernet adapters. It also provides adapters to server, storage, communications infrastructure, and embedded systems original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) as ICs or standard card form factors with PCI express interfaces; and switch ICs and systems to server, storage, communications infrastructure, and embedded systems OEMs to create switching equipment. In addition, the company supports server operating systems, including Linux, Windows, AIX, HPUX, Solaris, and VxWorks. The company sells its products through its direct sales force, a network of sales representatives, and independent distributors worldwide. Mellanox Technologies, Ltd. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Yokneam, Israel.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Mellanox Technologies (MLNX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 111.7
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 30.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 4.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 14
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 22.3%
Total Debt to Equity 24.8%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Return On Total Capital 1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Return On Equity 2.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 64.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68%
EBITDA Margin 14.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Operating Margin 3.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Net Profit Margin 2.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Effective Tax Rate 20.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -101.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

MLNX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MLNX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $858 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Mellanox Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Mellanox Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MLNX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MLNX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Mellanox Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Mellanox Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MLNX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MLNX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for Mellanox Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Mellanox Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MLNX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MLNX are equal to 30.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Mellanox Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MLNX is equal to 4.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $976 million for Mellanox Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.347 million for Mellanox Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Mellanox Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Mellanox reports 2Q loss   [Jul-26-17 10:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mellanox Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Chipmakers Cavium, Monolithic Power Systems Get Price-Target Hikes   [Apr-27-17 04:49PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Mellanox reports 1Q loss   [04:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mellanox Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Mellanox Sets New DPDK Performance Record With ConnectX-5   [Feb-26-17 11:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Mellanox Technologies, Ltd. (MLNX) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-06-16 10:16AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Mellanox & HDR InfiniBand   [Nov-21-16 11:00AM  at Forbes]
▶ These 5 Tech Trades Are Breaking Out in November   [Nov-08-16 06:05AM  at TheStreet]
Stock chart of MLNX Financial statements of MLNX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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