Intrinsic value of Marcus&Millichap - MMI

Previous Close

$27.38

  Intrinsic Value

$38.61

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+41%

  Value-price divergence*

-38%

Previous close

$27.38

 
Intrinsic value

$38.61

 
Up/down potential

+41%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-38%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as MMI.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MMI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.06
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  717
  731
  748
  767
  789
  813
  839
  868
  899
  932
  968
  1,006
  1,047
  1,090
  1,137
  1,186
  1,237
  1,292
  1,351
  1,412
  1,477
  1,545
  1,618
  1,694
  1,774
  1,858
  1,947
  2,041
  2,139
  2,243
  2,352
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  609
  623
  639
  657
  677
  699
  723
  749
  776
  806
  838
  872
  908
  947
  988
  1,031
  1,077
  1,125
  1,176
  1,230
  1,287
  1,347
  1,411
  1,478
  1,548
  1,622
  1,700
  1,782
  1,868
  1,959
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  611
  609
  623
  639
  657
  677
  699
  723
  749
  776
  806
  838
  872
  908
  947
  988
  1,031
  1,077
  1,125
  1,176
  1,230
  1,287
  1,347
  1,411
  1,478
  1,548
  1,622
  1,700
  1,782
  1,868
  1,959
Operating income, $m
  107
  122
  125
  128
  132
  136
  140
  145
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310
  325
  341
  357
  375
  393
EBITDA, $m
  111
  125
  128
  131
  135
  139
  143
  148
  154
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  194
  203
  212
  221
  231
  241
  253
  264
  277
  290
  303
  318
  333
  349
  366
  384
  402
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
Earnings before tax, $m
  107
  121
  124
  127
  130
  134
  138
  142
  147
  152
  157
  163
  169
  175
  182
  190
  197
  206
  214
  224
  233
  244
  255
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  333
  348
  365
Tax expense, $m
  42
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
Net income, $m
  65
  89
  90
  93
  95
  98
  100
  104
  107
  111
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  157
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  254
  266

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  215
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  394
  183
  187
  192
  197
  203
  209
  217
  224
  233
  242
  251
  261
  272
  284
  296
  309
  323
  337
  352
  369
  386
  404
  423
  443
  464
  486
  509
  534
  560
  587
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  179
  183
  187
  192
  197
  203
  209
  217
  224
  233
  242
  251
  261
  272
  284
  296
  309
  323
  337
  352
  369
  386
  404
  423
  443
  464
  486
  509
  534
  560
  587
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  4.006
  3.995
  4.000
  3.995
  4.005
  4.005
  4.014
  4.000
  4.013
  4.000
  4.000
  4.008
  4.011
  4.007
  4.004
  4.007
  4.003
  4.000
  4.009
  4.011
  4.003
  4.003
  4.005
  4.005
  4.005
  4.004
  4.006
  4.010
  4.006
  4.005
  4.007
Average production assets, $m
  15
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
Working capital, $m
  156
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -191
Total debt, $m
  10
  12
  15
  18
  23
  27
  32
  37
  43
  49
  56
  63
  71
  79
  87
  97
  106
  117
  128
  139
  151
  164
  177
  192
  207
  222
  239
  257
  275
  294
  315
Total liabilities, $m
  135
  137
  140
  143
  148
  152
  157
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  212
  222
  231
  242
  253
  264
  276
  289
  302
  317
  332
  347
  364
  382
  400
  419
  440
Total equity, $m
  259
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  88
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  147
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  394
  183
  187
  191
  197
  203
  210
  216
  224
  232
  242
  251
  262
  272
  283
  296
  309
  323
  338
  352
  369
  386
  403
  423
  443
  463
  486
  510
  534
  560
  587
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.039
  0.260
  0.320
  0.380
  0.460
  0.530
  0.610
  0.680
  0.760
  0.840
  0.920
  1.000
  1.080
  1.150
  1.230
  1.300
  1.370
  1.440
  1.510
  1.570
  1.630
  1.690
  1.750
  1.810
  1.860
  1.910
  1.960
  2.010
  2.050
  2.090
  2.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.246
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  65
  89
  90
  93
  95
  98
  100
  104
  107
  111
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  157
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  254
  266
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
Funds from operations, $m
  70
  91
  93
  96
  98
  101
  104
  107
  111
  114
  118
  123
  127
  132
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  240
  252
  263
  276
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
Cash from operations, $m
  74
  93
  95
  97
  100
  103
  106
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  217
  226
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
New CAPEX, $m
  -9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  20
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Free cash flow, $m
  94
  90
  91
  94
  96
  99
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  175
  182
  191
  199
  208
  218
  228
  238
  249
  261
  273
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  91
  92
  95
  97
  100
  104
  107
  111
  115
  119
  124
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  234
  244
  256
  268
  280
  294
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -70
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  214
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  306
  94
  96
  99
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  293
  86
  84
  82
  79
  76
  74
  71
  67
  64
  60
  56
  52
  48
  43
  39
  35
  31
  27
  23
  20
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Marcus & Millichap, Inc. is a brokerage company specializing in commercial real estate investment sales, financing, research and advisory services. The Company offers three primary services to its clients: commercial real estate investment brokerage, financing, and ancillary services, including other research, advisory and consulting services. It provides its financing services through Marcus & Millichap Capital Corporation, which is a broker of debt financing for commercial properties. Its research, advisory and consulting services are designed to assist clients in forming their investment strategy and making transaction decisions. Its advisory services include opinions of value, operating and financial performance benchmarking analysis, and specific asset buy-sell strategies. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had over 1,700 investment sales and financing professionals in 82 offices in the United States and Canada that provide investment brokerage and financing services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Marcus&Millichap (MMI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14
Price to Free Cash Flow 16
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 28.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 215
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 3.5%
Total Debt to Equity 3.9%
Interest Coverage 108
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 18.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.5%
Return On Total Capital 27.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 39%
Return On Equity 29%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.6%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 38.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.5%
EBITDA Margin 15.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.9%
Operating Margin 14.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Net Profit Margin 9.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Effective Tax Rate 39.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

MMI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MMI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $717 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Marcus&Millichap. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Marcus&Millichap. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MMI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MMI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Marcus&Millichap, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Marcus&Millichap.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MMI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MMI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.5% for Marcus&Millichap.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Marcus&Millichap. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MMI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MMI are equal to 2%.

Life of production assets of 3.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Marcus&Millichap operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MMI is equal to -8.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $259 million for Marcus&Millichap - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.428 million for Marcus&Millichap is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Marcus&Millichap at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Marcus & Millichap posts 2Q profit   [Aug-08-17 08:21PM  Associated Press]
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▶ 'Wait and see' mood in US commercial property: MMI CEO   [May-11-17 07:38PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Marcus & Millichap posts 1Q profit   [May-09-17 06:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ New retail experience transforming shopping malls   [07:45AM  Fox Business Videos]
▶ Phoenix job growth projected to double U.S. average   [Mar-28-17 02:20PM  at bizjournals.com]
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▶ Job growth, construction deliveries driving Charlotte office market   [02:25PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Marcus & Millichap posts 4Q profit   [05:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Energy firm's regional headquarters at Southpointe on the market   [Feb-15-17 02:36PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Remember When Google and Microsoft Wanted to Make Phones?   [Dec-22-16 10:00AM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of MMI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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